patrick.net

Randy H,

LOL. I don't think Kos posters have many pictures of themselves.

However, there is much cat blogging and pie blogging. (Though sadly, no cat pie or pie cat blogging)

ps,

by They could then arbitrage the situation by “stealing” your newly found purchasing power and transferring that to other countries.,

I am referring more to a situation where a weaker dollar and US price deflation does *not* lead to increased purchasing power (the opposite of inflation), or at least not as much as it should.

This could (and probably will) occur because multi/trans-national companies are in a position where they have enough market power to keep prices high. They can shift around internal capital so that they keep producing offshore, "import" goods internal to the company, offset the cost with transfer pricing, and stick it to the US consumer. This way the company takes what should have been the US consumer's extra purchasing power and they instead transfer it out of the country to a foreign division/subsidiary/investment.

The reaction will probably be trade barriers, tariffs, and punitive taxes. Then come WTO challenges. Then come anti-WTO protests. It probably won't be pretty for anyone, if it happens. I generally don't like conspiracy or doom theories. But it is a very serious question: how do you regulate a global company that exists beyond any single sovereignty? Who regulates it? What if the company refuses to be regulated, or just acts in its own interest sometimes to the chagrin of consumers in this or that country?

hate to rent,

Real depression is a scary thing and nobody is guaranteed to survive intact, or even survive at all. As much it could potentially starve away bad and inefficient trends in this society, it just just as easily become an uncontrollable thing that throw this country into permanent decline or create WWIII.

It's a very scary balance.

Nontheless, I'm all for psych ops. I hope the current bankruptcy laws hold and gets even tougher, so the current specuvestors can't get out that way. I want a whole lot of them to think suicide is the easy way out, take it, and scare their friends and neighbors into fiscal sanity.

hate to rent,

The reason Mr. Vincent has elected to overweight in Health Care is because it is by it's very nature defensive. I may or may not get a koi pond kit from Home Depot but if I have high blood pressure what can I do? Tech? What can I say? Tech is so overdue for a rally it's ridiculous.

NIA

Hate to Rent,

In a way, we're lucky because we have relatively little assets other than what's in our heads. So even if we lose our entire IRA or 401K, we still have time to move on and rebuild. We also have very low overhead compared to people ten or twenty years older.

I'd say just don't worry too much about it either ways. If you can, learn a new language in a part of the world that you're interested in. Keep your eyes open and don't purchase any big ticket items in the future. You'll be fine. You'll be a lot better off than many of our peers who bought into home appreciation express.

hate to rent,

For everyone's sake, I hope you're right. But deep depressions are scary things, and nation states don't have the best track record of getting out quickly and relatively undamaged.

DinOR,

Okay, Pharma is a consumer essential - though if the economy gets really bad and stays there a while, the federal government might be forced to bear down on big pharma. I don't know how undervalued tech is compared to their potential so I can't comment.

If I had real money, I'd go with consumer non-durables (especially the generic brand goods producers), not a money maker, but probably a decent hedge.

Linda,

That's kind of in bad taste. However, this is a good practice note for a smart realtor. Get friendly with local estate and trust lawyers and do some mutual back scratching.

A Depression would hurt the US *very* badly. Worse than any of us reading/posting on this blog can imagine, myself included. However, it will hurt the rest of the world *much* worse. I really don't see full-on Depression in the future. But, if it does happen, I'll feel quite fortunate to be in the US during the tribulation. During a global Depression (all Depressions are global post 1800), everyone is a Keynesian the same as there are no atheists in foxholes. During a Depression, those with military power use it. And I mean *really* use it.

Randy,

Why don't you create a thread on the coming depression/recession/whatever? That's a chance for the rest of us to listen in on your discussion with frank.

astrid,

As a rule of thumb, I don't make predictions. I don't know what will happen, and don't try to pretend to. I just think I know what is more or less likely.

I'm still waiting for DinOR's sales 101 Glenn Gary Glenn Ross thread, anyway.

Randy,

You're right, I almost forgot about SinOR's sales negotiations 101 :P

yeah, pharma ought to have a large government participation. Withholding viagra from goaty old men doesn't bother me, but withholding HIV medication from anyone because of inability to pay is pretty unconscionable.

With more government participation, maybe drug manufacturers will become more interested in curing diseases than discovering imaginative names for non-diseases.

LOL, it appears that wordpress will moderate any comments mentioning that little blue triangular pill.

Cats have 9 lives anyways...

But cats are usually more fun to play with, and smarter.

Returning,

Danville's mostly nice for the view. I don't think the commute would be better than from Dublin/Pleasanton.

Karmically speaking, cats may have greater merit in past life than those reincarnated as humans. They get to sleep and play all day without any worry.

I only saw 5 listings on realtor.com for Danville. But I think that whole stretch is basically wilderness. If you lived in Danville, it would be a pretty and long commute everyday.

Ja, as an Austrian wannabe, I must notify all girly boys and boyly girls of a new thread, ja.

Tschüss.

I've been wishing I was a cat for years. I'm still waiting for the polyjuice potion to make it happen.

I wish I was my cat. Georgie gets christmas cards from 4 continents. Suns herself all day, is very beautiful, the cat has it all.

Cats were once revered as gods.
Cats remember this

Well, what's strange are the proportion of properties from Blackhawk in the ones that came up for Danville. I would have thought they'd be rare since it's supposed to such a nice area.

http://rentals.realtor.com/Prop/1053926236

Here's an example of something that's probably a couple mil

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1044319697 the same property is selling for over 3 million

So definitely some discount at the higher end

But high end property are held by rich people, who are as a group less stupid and better advised.

Ha Ha,

Because a lot of people who bought in the last couple years are stretched very close to breaking point, anything going wrong could tip them into foreclosure and bring them into a hostile market.

On the demand side, we're rapidly running out of fools, and lending is getting more and more expensive.

Returning,

I bet that would make a very nice group home for about 50 migrant workers.

Unfortunately, Danville doesn't give me a big comparable set to work with, so this owner might just be greedy (though the rent would only cover half of PITI.)

Returning,

If we ever get DinOR's thread on negotiations, you might be able to negotiate the owner down to $2,000 a month.

What I really hate about MLS and MLS type services is that most of the realtors don't even bother to put up pictures to match their claims of views. You'd think, even for 1% commission on the sale, they can afford to do a set of glamour shots for the house.

good night

The US Treasury must rollover 1 trillion dollars of short term debt this year and 1 trillion next year.

This is because they took advantage of low interest rates in years past to finance the national debt with short term paper.

Because of this, bond yields will continue to rise for years to come; even if the fed stops raising interest rates. This means that mortgage interest rates will continue to rise as it becomes more and more difficult to float all that paper.

The debt service for the national debt will cause massive spending cuts or taxes to rise. Where will the money come from if taxes rise?

Here's a thought. Before Regan took office, corporations were paying 32% of all revenues collected. Today corporations contribute only 7%. Should corporate contributions be ratcheted back up to pay for the shortfall?

nice castle in the czech republic...

etymological factoid: the term 'real estate' comes directly from 'royal estate', i.e. making lands owned by the crown available to you serfs to occupy under sufferance... e.g. the brazilian unit of currency is the 'real', which is the same as the 'royal' or 'crown' etc of other countries...

Perhaps Australia has inefficient middlemen that mark up the prices of locally produced items.

they would have to be completely on the gouge, given that the wine has to pass through sydney to get overseas anyhow...

something on the news just now, there's a billion litres of unsold australian wine in storage just now, an extra 40,000 hectares were planted in the 90s partly in response to the 54c:$1 exchange rate, so now there's an oversupply. winemakers are offering $180 a tonne for grapes, which apparently is less than the cost of growing/picking...

anyone want to buy a billion litre wine lake cheap? we'll all be awash in booze...

nomadtoons2 Says:
Ray,
Wow, at least you heard back from that guy. I’ve written to the Mayor of Alameda, several newspapers, and of course all the senators and the Govna’ a few times, and nobody except one of the newspapers got back to me, and the person who emailed me from the paper was doing so because he too was pissed that a newspaper editor can’t afford anything in town. I think most local politicians would rather just look the other way and stay out of it, which is probably wise because either stand they take will ultimatly put mud on their hands.

Ray W Says:
nomadtoons2;
I think most local politicians would rather just look the other way and stay out of it, which is probably wise because either stand they take will ultimatly put mud on their hands.

congratulation to ray w and nomadtoons(2) for making an effort and trying to engage politicians. i'm presently getting up the state 'Centre For Affordable Housing' whose director makes more than 100K and is supposed to be an incredibly capable wheeler/dealer, and they have built or brokered nothing in 3 years of existence.

Jason Says:
There is not just one housing bubble, but two bubbles stacked on top of each other.

My God, a futurist article that's not about sabre-rattling and naming all the allies and enemies and mandating global supremacy... they're going soft...

For starters, we have to recognize that the very reason capitalism exists is to have asset price increases.

i don't agree. capitalism is about accumulating capital to fund enterprise, which would be expected to be some form of production, including paying wages to workers working in the enterprise. so the idea that the assets in the form of plant 'need' to appreciate is specious. further, i would not count housing to be an acceptable transactable 'capitalistic asset class' in the first place, as it is primarily human shelter.

the idea that 'asset' prices should increase no doubt comes from the ubiquitous american sport and pasttime of trying to buy shares low and sell them high for a capital gain, with no regard for the actual productive value of the underlying company...

p.s. I liked the cartoon on that article
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/2006/0112.pdf
with the christmas stockings - giant stockings for the 'charismatic CEOs', corporate profits and tax cuts for the rich, and wages and pensions down for ordinary workers, and still no decent universal health care - pure american unfettered market capitalism at work...