patrick.net

Linda in LLL,

I actually heard a mortgage broker's commercial today in the car that went something like this, it's so contorted I'll just have to do my best.

"That's right Sue! We went to XYZ Mortgage a year ago and they got us a really good deal. They put us in the "perfect" mortgage for us. Now that we're ready to refinance we'll definitely use XYZ Mortgage again!"

Come on! Now that we're ready to refinance? I thought this was the "perfect" mortgage? Run, RUN!

There is not just one housing bubble, but two bubbles stacked on top of each other.

Jason, have you considered participation on this site in any form other than links to the futurist?

"Astrid,

That is a perfectly ON-topic post. "

That's a start. But even better would be for you to let people know where the link is going to ahead of time. Even better than that would be to give your own thoughts about the article in addition to the link.

In any case, given your posting record, I personally think you're stealth trolling.

Ray W,

I'll agree that perhaps Pleasanton shouldn't take itself so seriously, and particularly in such an inept manner. However, anything making a lot of low frequency noise is capable of being a bother to other people nearby. Given that we're not using these machines in the middle of nowhere, other people may have a legitimate complaint about them.

However, the situation you're talking about sounds more like one of perceived class, and these latte sippers were selectively offended by the presence of a redneck vehicle. I say perceived because Harleys are damn expensive.

astrid,

There is an organization I believe called the American Society for Peace and Quite or something like that and they do a wonderful job describing all of the ruckus we have grown to accept. True, bikes with "loud pipes" in of it self is not that big a deal. However when coupled with leaf blowers, sub woofers etc. etc. it becomes substantial. All summer long we have a steady flow of "boomers on bikes" roll through town and each and every one of them manages to "get on it" as they pass through like a dog marking his territory. It's only quite until about 9:00am, then no sooner one group passes then another comes along. Frankly I could live without it.

DinOR,

I think we can count noise pollution as a sort of bad karma.

hate to rent,

The other problem is that the stocks are still priced pretty high by historic standards. This is the unfortunate consequence of a credit bubble.

It sounds like the finance types like commodities for hedging. However, these things sound entirely too complicated for my mind.

Also, none of the above is investment advice.

Can you post some pix of these supposed Kos Wacko Nymphos while you're at it?

Randy H,

LOL. I don't think Kos posters have many pictures of themselves.

However, there is much cat blogging and pie blogging. (Though sadly, no cat pie or pie cat blogging)

ps,

by They could then arbitrage the situation by “stealing” your newly found purchasing power and transferring that to other countries.,

I am referring more to a situation where a weaker dollar and US price deflation does *not* lead to increased purchasing power (the opposite of inflation), or at least not as much as it should.

This could (and probably will) occur because multi/trans-national companies are in a position where they have enough market power to keep prices high. They can shift around internal capital so that they keep producing offshore, "import" goods internal to the company, offset the cost with transfer pricing, and stick it to the US consumer. This way the company takes what should have been the US consumer's extra purchasing power and they instead transfer it out of the country to a foreign division/subsidiary/investment.

The reaction will probably be trade barriers, tariffs, and punitive taxes. Then come WTO challenges. Then come anti-WTO protests. It probably won't be pretty for anyone, if it happens. I generally don't like conspiracy or doom theories. But it is a very serious question: how do you regulate a global company that exists beyond any single sovereignty? Who regulates it? What if the company refuses to be regulated, or just acts in its own interest sometimes to the chagrin of consumers in this or that country?

hate to rent,

Real depression is a scary thing and nobody is guaranteed to survive intact, or even survive at all. As much it could potentially starve away bad and inefficient trends in this society, it just just as easily become an uncontrollable thing that throw this country into permanent decline or create WWIII.

It's a very scary balance.

Nontheless, I'm all for psych ops. I hope the current bankruptcy laws hold and gets even tougher, so the current specuvestors can't get out that way. I want a whole lot of them to think suicide is the easy way out, take it, and scare their friends and neighbors into fiscal sanity.

hate to rent,

The reason Mr. Vincent has elected to overweight in Health Care is because it is by it's very nature defensive. I may or may not get a koi pond kit from Home Depot but if I have high blood pressure what can I do? Tech? What can I say? Tech is so overdue for a rally it's ridiculous.

NIA

Hate to Rent,

In a way, we're lucky because we have relatively little assets other than what's in our heads. So even if we lose our entire IRA or 401K, we still have time to move on and rebuild. We also have very low overhead compared to people ten or twenty years older.

I'd say just don't worry too much about it either ways. If you can, learn a new language in a part of the world that you're interested in. Keep your eyes open and don't purchase any big ticket items in the future. You'll be fine. You'll be a lot better off than many of our peers who bought into home appreciation express.

hate to rent,

For everyone's sake, I hope you're right. But deep depressions are scary things, and nation states don't have the best track record of getting out quickly and relatively undamaged.

DinOR,

Okay, Pharma is a consumer essential - though if the economy gets really bad and stays there a while, the federal government might be forced to bear down on big pharma. I don't know how undervalued tech is compared to their potential so I can't comment.

If I had real money, I'd go with consumer non-durables (especially the generic brand goods producers), not a money maker, but probably a decent hedge.

Linda,

That's kind of in bad taste. However, this is a good practice note for a smart realtor. Get friendly with local estate and trust lawyers and do some mutual back scratching.

A Depression would hurt the US *very* badly. Worse than any of us reading/posting on this blog can imagine, myself included. However, it will hurt the rest of the world *much* worse. I really don't see full-on Depression in the future. But, if it does happen, I'll feel quite fortunate to be in the US during the tribulation. During a global Depression (all Depressions are global post 1800), everyone is a Keynesian the same as there are no atheists in foxholes. During a Depression, those with military power use it. And I mean *really* use it.

Randy,

Why don't you create a thread on the coming depression/recession/whatever? That's a chance for the rest of us to listen in on your discussion with frank.

astrid,

As a rule of thumb, I don't make predictions. I don't know what will happen, and don't try to pretend to. I just think I know what is more or less likely.

I'm still waiting for DinOR's sales 101 Glenn Gary Glenn Ross thread, anyway.

Randy,

You're right, I almost forgot about SinOR's sales negotiations 101 :P

yeah, pharma ought to have a large government participation. Withholding viagra from goaty old men doesn't bother me, but withholding HIV medication from anyone because of inability to pay is pretty unconscionable.

With more government participation, maybe drug manufacturers will become more interested in curing diseases than discovering imaginative names for non-diseases.

LOL, it appears that wordpress will moderate any comments mentioning that little blue triangular pill.

Cats have 9 lives anyways...

But cats are usually more fun to play with, and smarter.

Returning,

Danville's mostly nice for the view. I don't think the commute would be better than from Dublin/Pleasanton.

Karmically speaking, cats may have greater merit in past life than those reincarnated as humans. They get to sleep and play all day without any worry.

I only saw 5 listings on realtor.com for Danville. But I think that whole stretch is basically wilderness. If you lived in Danville, it would be a pretty and long commute everyday.

Ja, as an Austrian wannabe, I must notify all girly boys and boyly girls of a new thread, ja.

Tschüss.

I've been wishing I was a cat for years. I'm still waiting for the polyjuice potion to make it happen.

I wish I was my cat. Georgie gets christmas cards from 4 continents. Suns herself all day, is very beautiful, the cat has it all.

Cats were once revered as gods.
Cats remember this

Well, what's strange are the proportion of properties from Blackhawk in the ones that came up for Danville. I would have thought they'd be rare since it's supposed to such a nice area.

http://rentals.realtor.com/Prop/1053926236

Here's an example of something that's probably a couple mil

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1044319697 the same property is selling for over 3 million

So definitely some discount at the higher end

But high end property are held by rich people, who are as a group less stupid and better advised.

Ha Ha,

Because a lot of people who bought in the last couple years are stretched very close to breaking point, anything going wrong could tip them into foreclosure and bring them into a hostile market.

On the demand side, we're rapidly running out of fools, and lending is getting more and more expensive.

Returning,

I bet that would make a very nice group home for about 50 migrant workers.

Unfortunately, Danville doesn't give me a big comparable set to work with, so this owner might just be greedy (though the rent would only cover half of PITI.)

Returning,

If we ever get DinOR's thread on negotiations, you might be able to negotiate the owner down to $2,000 a month.

What I really hate about MLS and MLS type services is that most of the realtors don't even bother to put up pictures to match their claims of views. You'd think, even for 1% commission on the sale, they can afford to do a set of glamour shots for the house.