patrick.net

bad HARM! Baaaaaad HARM!

It's still a bit too early for us in BA to feel the schadenfreude.

Seems like March help up better than Feb. The trend is still our friend, but there was SOME spring bounce.

The http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSJMN.shtm has Santa Clara County numbers till March 28 out. Sales for resale are down 10%. Price appreciation ha slowed from 20 to 10%. New homes median price continues to go down, a good leading indicator.

My guess is, at least one more year before we YOY declines in ALL numbers, like median price, price per SQFT etc. And 2008 will be the real trouble year.

It's too early for us in LA to feel schadenfreude also. :(
But soon....I feel it's just around the corner..... :)

well, all of this is reallly fun but alot of really poor people will get hurt, janior, secrity graud,e ct…

Hate to rent,

Point taken, but what were all these specuvestor geniuses saying when I was completely priced out of the market? Probably something like: "You're just jealous of my success! Stop whining like a baby, go buy some property and you can be rich like me" or "It's the market, stupid! Stop complaining and Face Reality!".

Pardon me if I savor my long-awaited and well deserved helping of Karma pie.

Oh and BTW, here is another good link. It's a realtor's analysis of the current markets.

http://www.sanjoseproperty.com/newsletter.html

The tone is refreshingly honest. Check out the Feb report as well, by selecting from the drop down at the upper right.

The Germans have a freakin word for everything.

Soon we will add a new vocabulary like Hypothekzurückstellungpanik (mortgage reset panic), not sure if the grammar is right in converting the stellen part to stellung, my high school german is getting rustic.

However, personally, I DO feel schadenfreude that the seller of my old house han't been able to sell it yet. Seven months after he bought it from me...no improvments...priced at 200K more...and no bites...not even a nibble........
Ahhhhh schadenfreude..........

Maybe I SHOULD offer him 100K LESS than I sold it to him for...

Ahhhh schadenfreude....

I hope I am not creating bad karma ....but there is a certain...satisfaction...

I enjoy schadenfreude..but then I always feel regretful later on–kind of like having a schadenfreude hangover—–this probably because I spent a good deal of time working on Buddhist Studies and anti-schadenfreude memes seeped into my head and ruined everything…drats….

Yes, karma.

I hope I am not creating bad karma ….but there is a certain…satisfaction…

He got into the situation himself. But you should consult a karmic professional to see if that will create bad karma. :)

Peter P,

You're a true Boddhisatva.

Harm,

you are not a bad person, but did you have to write "ass pounding"?

tsusiat,

But "ass pounding" is gender neutral. If HARM used another term, that might be construed as sexist ;)

Graphics on Patrick?

Now that's what I call irrational exuberance.

My apologies to anyone offended by the term "ass pounding".
I'm still not removing it, but you have my sincere apologies :mrgreen: :twisted:

Owneroccupier

The nice thing about german is you can add words together in compound fashion to express yourself better. How about this?

Luftblase Panik

literally, Bubble Panic.

I like that one.

Housing bubble, literally Gehäuseluftblase

That's good too

tsusiat...how do you say-ass pounding?

Zum Ende der Gehäuseluftblase kommt das Torschlusspanik. Vom Torschlusspanik geniessen wir Schadenfreude.

haha, my high school German teacher would be so proud of me :-)

tsuiat,

what is the rule of converting a verb to noun? adding "ung" or "schaft" to verbs?

tsuiat,

Ich glaube, dass du dieses nützlich finden.

Ich fühle Schadenfeude gern. Ach ja! Ich doch genieße Schadenfreude viel!

Randy,

ich kann ein bisschen Deutsch sprechen, aber, nicht so viel.

I believe you might have fun savouring your boatful of malicious glee....

This just reminds me of a post I read on Craigslist housing forum the other day.
"A friend wants me to buy his single family home in Dorchester, MA for $600K, and sell it back to him in 3-6 months. I have excellent credit. He owes $550K on it. He said he wants to pull $50K equity out of it, and keep $30K and pay me $20k when he buys it back from me. I checked prices, and that is a very high price for a single family in Dorchester. Is this too risky of an investments. Why should/shouldn't I do this?"
He received a lot of replies, most of them warning him sincerely against the idea. But I just can't help thinking if this person would even consider going into a risky and shady deal like that, he is either stupid or just very greedy (much more likely) and does not deserve the kind of concern.

Leitrollenflachlegung [tech] maybe it can be used in the near future for new type situation, literally "bubble collapsing assembly" to describe the current paradigm

or

GehäuseluftblaseAngstverkäufer, literally "housing bubble panic seller"

or

Schaumbad, literally "bubble bath", but a whole new interpretation drawn from the zeitgeist (spirit of the times)

;)

By the way, "du" is a tad "informal" for this decourous forum, methinks...

tsusiat,

Nice one :)

I'm working on my "bubble collapsing assembly" right now in Excel, lol.

Bubblizer 1.2.1 just released. Check out the new scenario analysis, which demonstrates just how much of a FB you too can become if you buy now.

Even the Germans are reading about Freddie Mac:

http://de.mabico.com/en/news/20060212/european_community/article59997/

Wirklich!

Shogunai: "Shit happens." (Japanese)

Agreed on asset price increases. They can increase due to building new capital stock, replacing depreciated capital stock, labor supply and demand, and best of all "productivity". In the long-run, only productivity truly creates higher asset prices that are in equilibrium. But, in the real world, fools usually drive asset prices as we experience them. I've been trying to find the fabled land of "the long run" for many years, to no success.

Michael,

actually I heard a Japanese say, Shogun-fuckin'-nai, no kidding. Then I found out there is a bar in Tokyo called exactly that.

ajh,

thanks mate, you made my day. Your countryman Different Sean was trying to convince me that Oz levies the same tax as us, nay said I.

Until you guys start to have something like 5-15% capital gains tax, I don't want to hear anything about Oz' taxation system.

Randy,

how did you type the umlau and the "ss" on an English keyboard? Thanks

go mr. bubble go, “One lady broke down into tears” i wonder what is the next bubble going to be. or will the world return back to normal……

well, well, well, capitalism and greed contain the seeds of their own destruction...

and what's 'normal'? a decent social contract?

what will be the next pointless bubble? doesn't the business cycle go shares -> property -> cash -> shares ad infinitum... capital chasing its own tail...

hate to rent:

Regarding: http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060412:MTFH22368_2006-04-12_03-41-26_SEO180136

Which assets is he referring to? In my mind assets is a broad category, so curious what the former chairman of the Fed has in mind for his definition? Thanks for the link, it was informative and would be doubly so if I could nail down what he views as inflated presently!

I am also searching for the next bubble. Actually, I am hoping there is one. Without one, the windfall receipts from capital gains followed by windfall re-assessment property taxes still barely maanged to keep local governments afloat. It'd be weird to see several major cities issuing junk bonds and defaulting on them due to bakruptcies.

Problem is, I just can't figure out what the Fed could inflate to persist revenue collection to pay off warring and allow local governments to pay their bills also.

I bought a bunch of gold at 410-425 an ounce, but now I have that "it is over extended" feel. However, if they keep printing dollars or there is no following bubble I think it could continue and be its own bubble... Too many moving parts in economics and investments, but I hope I can catch on to the next bubble if as another poster had said, Dent called it right about bubble shifting from one thing to the next.

p.s. i don't believe mr ooi even exists, he is a creation by the murdoch press to try to make an example and encourage the govt to slash the top rate for the rich readers of The Australian.

not many asians in australia would work in england, it's almost unheard of, unless they got sponsorship overseas, as he would be unlikely to have ancestry rights. this person sounds like a composite, a chimera, trying to appeal to everyone at once...

every article in The Australian is a right-wing spin, in fact the Financial Review published by rivals Fairfax, which is purely about business, is a much better and more balanced read, as it always provides the downside of situations as well in order for business readers to make a sensible decision on matters. Fairfax also publish the fairly balanced and centrist Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age, and my blog contains many articles from those papers. Thank God for more diluted media ownership, altho it's still pretty concentrated here.

you should do a google on 'what rupert murdoch owns', and you will find it's half the influential press in UK, US and oz, loads of TV and radio stations in US, all of Fox enterprises, and some book publishers. he makes and breaks govts by influencing public sentiment and publishing adverse stories. govts are in absolute fear of him...

and don't forget the heavy metal umlaut, as per
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_metal_umlaut

At one Mötley Crüe performance in Germany, the entire audience started chanting "Mertley Crew-e" - a pronunciation often used in Hungary as well.

In 1997, The Onion published an article called "Ünited Stätes Toughens Image With Umlauts", about a congressional attempt to add umlauts to the name of the United States of America to make it seem "bad-assed and scary in a quasi-heavy metal manner".

I like:
métro-boulot-dodo
A star among phrases for an untranslatable succinctness that sums up a pointless existence (subway, job, sleep). The full line of the original poem titled Couleurs d’usine by Pierre Béarn is even more eloquent:

Métro boulet bistrots mégots dodo zero
“Subway work bars smokes sleep nothing”