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Call the correction in the offing, ja!


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2006 Apr 13, 3:23pm   20,502 views  227 comments

by tsusiat   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

As the steroids pump up the muscles, the cheap credit pumps up the bubble.

Take away the cheap credit, the bubble must shrivel like the muscles of a girly boy cut off by his steroid pusher while living too far from the Mexican border.

How far can designer body modification analogies be stretched to explain past economic modifications of all girly boy market interventionists?

As credit is cut off, will girly boy financial geniuses lose their financial powers and be reduced to pumped up wannabes with sand kicked in their faces?

At the end of the “correction”, will the housing market/girly boys be:

10% cheaper/smaller? 20% cheaper/smaller? 30% cheaper/smaller? 40% cheaper/smaller? 50% cheaper/smaller? God help us, even cheaper or smaller than that?

NO, I tell you, this spring prices will be at an all time high and they will PUMP YOU UP UP UP!

True or not? Offended or not?

tsusiat

#housing

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175   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 10:33am  

DinOR,

Save us!

I'm glad this blog is able to host a conversation on this topic, discuss the meaty stuff without meaningless platitude, and still avoid a flame war.

176   HARM   2006 Apr 14, 10:46am  

@astrid,

Agreed. It's nice to see that it's possible to disagree without being disagreeable.

177   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 10:49am  

newsfreak,

I know exactly what you’re talking about. I can’t even listen to news radio or watch TV news anymore. I would have died from soap poisoning if I kept listening to public radio.

178   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 10:57am  

HARM,

I really liked your arguments and completely agree with them. Trying to write another sovereign people's destiny never ends well. The Chinese are still fuming at the Brits for what happened in the Boxer Rebellion.

179   HARM   2006 Apr 14, 11:00am  

Thanks, astrid.
Changing the subject, check out the new graphic I added to Surefer-X's "I don’t even know what to think" thread! :-)

180   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:02am  

Very nice. I'm gonna go dig for a picture of a tinfoil hat now :P

181   LILLL   2006 Apr 14, 11:03am  

HARM
You're funny!
Hey, now that we have HARM-GRAPHIX...we should get that sountrack going!

182   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:03am  

I guess we could start talking about negotiation techniques on this thread.

183   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:04am  

Linda,

I heard a pretty good one for the sound track.

Soft Boys - Insanely Jealous

184   Joe Schmoe   2006 Apr 14, 11:06am  

Well, I disagree, you America-hating traitors!

Seriously, while politics is an emotional subject for everyone, I think the really rabid partisanship is a hallmark of the Boomers.

I find most liberals my age to be very reasonable, with the exception of a few people who see themselves as oppressed minorities and a couple of this Cuban dude from Miami I knew who was just a right wing anti-communist madman. Ironically, his name was Ivan (he didn't see the irony in this.)

We wound up in a gay bar in the Village one time; we hadn't known it was that kind of place when we arrived, even though it literally was right next door to the Stonewall bar, the birthplace of the gay rights movement, but eventually we figured it out. I have never seen someone's spine stiffen as quickly as Ivan's did when we let him in on the secret. He got up from the table so fast that he lost his balance, and when this dude sitting at the next table (who was there with a woman who appeared to be his girlfriend) grabbed his arm to steady him, Ivan screamed "don't touch me!" in this high-ptiched voice and ran for the door.

But most younger people are far more reasonable about politics. We don't really have a stake in the culture wars of the 60's and are generally far more reasonable. Conservative Gen-X'ers don't hate minorities, liberal X'ers aren't America-hating hippies; it's all good with us. I think politics will be a lot more congenial once the Boomers finally exit the scene.

185   OO   2006 Apr 14, 11:17am  

I am a selfish American citizen, and I don't give a f*ck who is suffering under what regime in other countries, if the regimes are corrupt and evil, and their people are ok with it, that's their business that I don't want to meddle with.

Now, I pay tax to the US to advance OUR interest as a nation, if you are telling me that by invading Iraq we will collectively get enough cheap oil that will last another 200 years, I am all for it. Or if Saddam Hussein is doing something that is jeopardizing my lifestyle in THIS country, then I am all for taking him out.

But Saddam Hussein torturing his own people, or the Chinese government abusing their own labor? oh well, shit happens, none of my business. Shogun-fuckin-nai.

186   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:19am  

LOL, somebody should put that into the definitions thread.

187   HARM   2006 Apr 14, 11:20am  

Added new graphic to "NAR: Speculation Accounts for 40% of 2005 Home Sales" thread.

188   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:23am  

Now, how about negotiations?

Randy H already outlined the target for a cheap home - long term homeowner with substantial equity cushion. But how to approach such an individual?

Do any of you ever cruise nice neighborhoods looking for a house you'd like to buy? Do you ever mentally think about the offer you'd make the owner when the time is right?

189   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:27am  

As for me, I'm curious about anyone's experience in buying foreclosed properties or knowledge about the workings of trust resolution corporations. I think there's a potential for a whole gush of liquidated property at some point in the future when there will be very few buyers, that seems like the best place to pick up a large number of bargain rental properties.

Anyone like this idea? Anyone think it's completely idiotic? Please tell!

190   LILLL   2006 Apr 14, 11:29am  

HARM
You are on a roll today!
Did you guys see this funny, narrated, condo thingy?

http://www.capitalstool.coms/index.php?showtopic=7644

191   HARM   2006 Apr 14, 11:33am  

@Linda,

Yeah someone on Mish's or ben's blog posted the link a while back --pretty hilarious. Hat's off to "Joe Stool" for writing it.

192   HARM   2006 Apr 14, 11:43am  

Just added a graphic to Surfer-X's "?????" thread. I think you'll all agree it's very 'X'! :P

193   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 11:47am  

Very nice!

194   Randy H   2006 Apr 14, 12:13pm  

astrid,

In fairness, it was DinOR, George, FAB, and perhaps Zephyr (during one of his rare appearances) who outlined the ideal home seller in a down market.

I'd start the thread but I'm not knowledgeable enough in real-estate negotiations to do the subject justice. I'm waiting for more good economic news until I launch my next thread.

195   Randy H   2006 Apr 14, 12:25pm  

but I suspect you’re all about as stymied as I am as to how to move the country forward in a positive direction with the system we have right now.

SQT, not at all stymied. A simple, temporary suspension of the Constitution in order to grant me full and unchallenged authoritarian powers would be certain to move things forward. I'd agree to do this up until (a) I feel my work is done, (b) I get bored (c) someone abruptly ends my reign with cold steel.

196   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 12:35pm  

All Hail Randolphus Caesar!

197   Randy H   2006 Apr 14, 12:36pm  

Et tu, Astrid?

198   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 12:42pm  

LOL! No, I can tolerate benevolent dictatorship. I'm no defender of a corrupt and ineffectual Republic.

Feel free to conquer to conquer the People's Republic of Berkeley, so we'll have continued access to patchouli and good bookstores.

199   Joe Schmoe   2006 Apr 14, 12:43pm  

The legions (of housing bubble bloggers) are loyal to you, Randy. We await your word to march on the Marina district!

200   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 12:56pm  

Joe Schmoe,

Although I don't agree with you about Iraq, I commend you for putting yourself at risk for your beliefs.

I'm not sure I would be so generous about the political beliefs of my co-generationals, I know a few hard left people my age and they're very loony. Anti-WTO and Free Momia(sic?) protests don't form themselves :P

201   Randy H   2006 Apr 14, 12:58pm  

My plans are coming together nicely :) I have already formed the broadest coalition since the Bull Moose Party! I may speak softly, but I carry a big blogging stick!

202   Different Sean   2006 Apr 14, 1:28pm  

Now, I pay tax to the US to advance OUR interest as a nation, if you are telling me that by invading Iraq we will collectively get enough cheap oil that will last another 200 years, I am all for it. Or if Saddam Hussein is doing something that is jeopardizing my lifestyle in THIS country, then I am all for taking him out.

That's exactly what the Roman citizens were saying as they sacked Gaul or Germany as their only source of new wealth and 'economic growth'...

Everyone did that for a time, and it lead to 3 centuries of constant European warfare, culminating in WWI and WWII, so if you want to be the first to get back in on the 'competitive colonialism' act all over again, it will at first be censured by the UN, and you may even end up at war, not with the little 3rd world countries you bully, but with the EU, Russia or China themselves. Or else the entire middle east, in an escalation similar to what we are seeing in Iran. That's why unilateral invasions against other countries' recognised sovereign rights are generally frowned upon these days. The Roman Empire collapsed because of barbarian resentment and learning the military tricks of the invader, so watch out - things are already a quagmire in Iraq.

As Dubya tried to say, 'fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me', except he couldn't remember the saying due to alchohol poisoning. Probably no worse than Reagan, that other Republican puppet. (US = late Roman Empire decadence?) So attempting to take Iran on pretexts wold be fooling us twice. However, Iran is 4x larger with 4x the population of Iraq, so I think military strikes on strategic sites are more likely than an attempted invasion - altho what happens if you use missiles on sites which are beng used to enrich uranium?

Further, if it's OK for the US to take colonial conquests, then it's OK for every other larger, technological power to start doing it as well, so where would that process end? (Interestingly, the US-UK axis of invasion agrees well with Orwell's 1984 construction of 'Oceania' as one of the superpowers.)

I think they're going slow in Iran because they realise it's not so easy to invade a country 4x larger, and they can't conjure up enough of a pretext a second time without arousing a lot of suspicion. If it was more Iraq-sized, I think they might be more tempted to have a go though. Just depends on whose oil contracts they're upsetting, as well...

Iran are engaging in absolute brinksmanship, by switching to the Euro and enriching uranium simultaneously - they should probably harry the US only one way at a time... Meanwhile, Condi Rice continues to keep a straight face as she lies through her back teeth about everything... sometimes you can only just tell when she's lying...

203   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 1:32pm  

Ha Ha,

Huh? I know this is a stealthy way for us to focus on your income, but I just can't resist.

What's the big deal? My boyfriend makes more than that a year thru CC rebates and zero percent balance transfers. And he doesn't make 1 Ha Ha a year.

204   surfer-x   2006 Apr 14, 1:33pm  

HaHa, dude, get the mother fuck over it, your income is not normal. 160K is a very high income, even in the shithole bay area. Get over, no one fucking cares how much you make, nobody.

205   Different Sean   2006 Apr 14, 1:55pm  

Did you guys see this funny, narrated, condo thingy?

http://www.capitalstool.coms/index.php?showtopic=7644

Talk about selling the sizzle and not the sausage...

Those places look identical to the latest rash in Sydney, for about the same price.. but they never do fashion shows, serve drinks or need a DJ to sell them... probably fewer crack hos and homeless milling around outside too...

206   Different Sean   2006 Apr 14, 2:02pm  

Actually if the US = Roman Empire, maybe Randy = Messiah!!?? 80

Mandy (Randy's mom): He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy!

Randy: Look, you've got it all wrong! You don't NEED to follow ME, You don't NEED to follow ANYBODY! You've got to think for yourselves! You're ALL individuals!
The Crowd: Yes! We're all individuals!
Randy: You're all different!
The Crowd: Yes, we are all different!

207   Different Sean   2006 Apr 14, 2:11pm  

yeah, talk more like Surfer-X, astrid - HaHa loves it when hot girls talk dirty to him in cyber... you should IM him and swear at him and threaten to paddle his bottom for being a bad boy! you know he wants it... :P

208   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 2:12pm  

Ha Ha,

I still don't get your point. 5% and even periodic 10% rebate CC offers have been around for a while, and even a measily $30-40K of zero percent balance transfer offers in money market can now yield over $1000 a yr.

With a decent credit history, someone making .3-.5 ha has can easily get enough offers to throw off $1K after tax a year.

I'm not jealous, I just really don't see the fuss.

209   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 2:14pm  

DS,

Well then! SFWoman is the best person to ask about such services. I'm sure a man making Ha Has can afford to help out some ladies with ARMs.

210   Different Sean   2006 Apr 14, 2:51pm  

HaHa, dude, get the mother fuck over it, your income is not normal. [smack] :x Yes, matron...

$160K is a very high income, even in the shithole bay area. [smack] :x Sorry, matron...

Get over it, no one fucking cares how much you make, nobody. [smack] I won't do it again matron :cry: (swe-e-e-et) 8)

211   LILLL   2006 Apr 14, 3:04pm  

C'mon Astrid!
Talk like Surfer-X!

212   LILLL   2006 Apr 14, 3:08pm  

Astrid...you're never this quiet.

213   tsusiat   2006 Apr 14, 3:09pm  

HARM

playing Bball with the kids all day, just read your post and LOVED the artwork.

Take a bow! My SNL spoof talk nowhere near your photoshop rip job, ja.

Ja ja!

214   astrid   2006 Apr 14, 3:09pm  

:) DS makes a much better rent-boy/top than me.

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