patrick.net

Randy H Says:

"I was better off in the end not going to MIT. I’m hoping my son favors Cal (that’s Berkeley for out of towners) or CalTech. Maybe Stanford as a backup. (Not intended as a slight to the elite from “the farm”)."

As a person who has sat on both sides of the field for the big game the one piece of advice I give kids thinking about going to college is to "graduate from the best school near where you plan to spend the rest of your life" (notice I say "graduate from" since no one ever asks if you graduated from Cal "after 2 years at UCR"). If you plan to work and raise your kids in Austin a degree from UT will open a lot more doors than a degree from "that school in CA with all the left wing protestors" or "the Junior University south of San Francisco started by the railroad guy"...

One of my childhood best friends ended up going to CalTech and I spent a lot of time visiting him down there at the Blacker Hovse (the "v" is not a typo and you can find out more with a Google search). I was only back at MIT once (when I was older and in Grad School), but as a whole CalTech kids seem to have a lot more fun than the kids at MIT. As a clean cut fraternity guy coming down to visit, the CalTech guys did not welcome me with open arms at first but after they found out that I was a closet geek and liked to blow stuff up I became an honorary Blacker Hovse member...

P.S. More advice to parents don't ever tell your kids where you want them to go to school try and get some younger person that they respect to tell them...

With Taiwan holding essentially the nuclear option over most of China’s most productive cities (almost all of them are located next to a major dammed river), I think the threat is much more immediate.

China would not have built that giant dam if it did not think there is sufficient deterrence. On the other hand, both China and US knows no country can beat the American conventionally. Also, both countries know that any naval conflict in the Taiwan Strait *will* involve tactical nuclear weapons. The only discusion is: does anyone think that victory can be had without escalating to a full scale nuclear war with no winners.

But as I understand it, it’s always worthwhile to dispute a speeding ticket while you’re in California.

It is worthwhile to avoid speeding altogether.

He’s got the hutzpa to think he can avoid the next great depression. My hat’s off to him.

So far, his has my respect.

Most of my friends think that it is right to avert recessions. They looked surprised when I said that recessions are necessary to liquidate malinvestments and that pain is unavoidable.

astrid Says:

"As for Stanford, yawn. What can be so great about a school that let’s its students drop classes right til the end of the semester?"

My favorite Stanford comment comes from a grad school classmate who said (after looking around at all the girls walking by that got 4.4 GPAs in High School and grad school girls with 780 GMAT scores) "my mom was the last good looking girl that went to Stanford"...

P.S. You can drop classes at other schools just as late as Stanford if you play the game... (I had more than one call from Cal when I was an East Bay property manager when I had to say "yes as a condition of his continued employment (my fraternity brother's name) must now be here at work from 10:00 to 11:00 on Tuesdays and Thursdays)...

Surfer-X says:

"...Moved to Santa Barbara and lived in a haunted house for a month..."

Bwahahahaaa!

Oh, my!

See any ghosts?

Peter P,

China built the big ole dam over the Yangtze basically on the rash decision of one man, Li Peng. It was a bad idea for numerous reasons, not the least of which is national security. This gives Taiwan the opportunity to do maximum retailiation if China should choose to invade.

Now, I don't want Taiwan to be invaded. That just sucks for everybody. But still, the dams can give the Taiwan government a strategic edge if things get hot over the Taiwan Strait.

The US will be extremely hesitant to go nuclear for any reason, and its forces are stretched awfully thin right now. I think if China can execute a quick invasion of Taiwan, America will be very reluctant to use nuclear weapons to force the Chinese out.

Top Ten Signs of a Precious Metals Bubble

http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1145987362.php

Peter P,

Oh hell, let's just create a derivative on the collective stupidity of the Baby Boomers. How many bubbles can these guys blow thru?

But still, the dams can give the Taiwan government a strategic edge if things get hot over the Taiwan Strait.

Any strategic weakness is only as vulnerable as the nuclear deterrence.

We have more than 60 years of relative world peace. Let's hope that it continues this way. I still want to retire on a cruise ship sailing around the world with unlimited lobsters.

Oh hell, let’s just create a derivative on the collective stupidity of the Baby Boomers. How many bubbles can these guys blow thru?

Not many more. The next boom is probably in commodities and precious metals.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

I rather have bubbles than wars.

“As for Stanford, yawn. What can be so great about a school that let’s its students drop classes right til the end of the semester?”

Well, it is very difficult to fail a class. This I can say.

It is a beautiful school and I enjoyed my time there. But MIT and Havard have access to better lobsters.

astrid,

I really don't think there will be a breakout of war between Taiwan and China at least in our lifetime.

The prime purpose of the Chinese gov is to stay in power, invading Taiwan doesn't help that. It has far more fish to fry internally, like sustaining employment feeding 1.3b mouths, mitigating the gap between the rich and poor and dealing with a potential environmental breakdown. Taiwan on the other hand wants a status quo, it can declare independence, but it really doesn't change the status quo, because right now it is a defacto independent country, the mainland Chinese gov has no authority or control over any of Taiwan's affairs. I don't see any side having the urge to change anything soon.

With the regards to the dam, you don't need to be a beaver to tell it is just the stupidest thing in the world. To spread the risk of failure and to make control of water flow more flexible, they should build a series of dams along the waterway instead of concentrating all possible points of failure at one single huge project, which in itself may even be massive enough to induce earthquake. I have no idea what the heck the designer is thinking.

The dam is the contemporary illustration of the French Maginot Line when it comes to flood control.

Owneroccupier,

I agree with your assessment re: Taiwan Strait right now. I don't think the current government wants to change the status quo, they bring up Taiwan mainly to burnish their Communism credentials and to seek the moral high ground in their dealing with Taiwan.

"With the regards to the dam, you don’t need to be a beaver to tell it is just the stupidest thing in the world."

:P The Chinese are still working through their inferiority/superiority complex. There will be one hell of a hangover when they wake up.

Peter P,

Shucks, you should have gone to the CIA for school.

Shucks, you should have gone to the CIA for school.

Culinary Institute of America?

Peter,

I don't think poor students care about access to lobsters, the Legal Seafood lobsters still cost about $20, which was no chump change for us. Also, locationwise Kendall Square is not the best place on earth, and Harvard Square is kind of run down too.

You know in Boston, the Red line was the only line on the T that doesn't smell like urine because allegedly Harvard and MIT paid tons of money to make sure that the Red line looks decent enough to visiting parents who paid through their noses for their kids' tuition.

Well, I do think that Stanford has very good Feng Shui. You can feel the Chi just by walking around.

I don’t think poor students care about access to lobsters, the Legal Seafood lobsters still cost about $20, which was no chump change for us.

But Legal has very good Chowdah...

All Peter P can think of is 1) food, 2) bathroom, which in itself is very logical, where else would you go after good food? :-)

where else would you go after good food?

Or better yet, where else would you go after BAD food?

Peter P,

Yes, CIA = Culinary Inst't of America

You should have gone to Claremont McKenna College and worked for the Athenaeum, they had a genius pastry chef there who was assisted by fairly hot girls.

skibum,

no, those H-bombs were dropped left and right in Boston too, and I totally concur with your on observation of some of the H people, entirely self-absorbed just because of their association with the school.

My wife, then girlfriend, and I used to go bar hopping when we went to school in Boston, once a guy from HBS, a school that the undergrad referred to as "on the other side of the Charles River", tried to drop a H-bomb on my wife. After he elaborated how difficult it was to get into HBS, he asked my wife where she went to school. So my wife said, Radcliffe. The poor soul didn't even know what the heck it was, thinking it must be an equivalent of Mount Holyoke or something. So my wife told him, learn about your school before you go around and drop the freaking bomb.

*THE NEW GOLD STANDARD*

DL while in Miami, addressed Florida's issues with some suprising candor. I found his comments like "it's gonna hurt" refreshing. Then he followed up with his usual spin/cheerleading. He described RE as "the new gold standard". I'm not kidding, time permitting please read the link posted here. If this is the new "gold standard" I'd rather move down the chart to lead thank you.

What's more startling is that all along we've been told that a "crash" in RE is not only unlikely it's virtually impossible b/c houses don't trade like stocks. O.K, then why are we getting this much candor (admitting the obvious) so soon? DL made several stock market analogies so he's the one that brought it up. While he acknowledges a painful correction he's quick to add that it won't be on the same scale as say the NASDAQ. Well gee David, judging by the acceleration (and tone) of your comments this thing is unravelling MORE quickly than the stock market! Remember, after the high in March 2000 we didn't get comments like this until well into the FOLLOWING year 2001 which was when the "margin selling" occured and accelerated. He also puts a date on "the recovery" which will take place in 2007. I guess that'll be when the "new gold standard" takes effect.

If you get a chance please read Mike Morgan's comments on Mish's web site. Mike exhibits gentlemenly restrain but you could tell DL's delivery was really trying his patience. Let's see 60,000 condos in Miami at an annual absorption rate of 2,500 per year will take how long to clean up the inventory?

I thought I'd step in a for a second and mention something rather humerous. I got home yesterday, and sitting on the table is a piece if junk mail from one of the local RE agencies. One of the agents had sent us a card that said:" I just sold a home in your neigborhood, and now I need more inventory. If you know anyone else in your neighborhood that wants to sell, please contact me."
This is the oddest piece if junk mail I've gotten in a while. I thought about writing him back and telling him that inventory doesn't seem to be that big of a deal in our neighborhood, and his company aught to try and sell what they have now since there is a LOT of it. Maybe he could get some more inventory in Sacremento?

I thought I'd step in a for a second and mention something rather humerous. I got home yesterday, and sitting on the table is a piece if junk mail from one of the local RE agencies. One of the agents had sent us a card that said:" I just sold a home in your neigborhood, and now I need more inventory. If you know anyone else in your neighborhood that wants to sell, please contact me."
This is the oddest piece if junk mail I've gotten in a while. I thought about writing him back and telling him that inventory doesn't seem to be that big of a deal in our neighborhood, and his company aught to try and sell what they have now since there is a LOT of it. Maybe he could get some more inventory in Sacremento?

weird. double post. sorry.

skibum,

One day soon I'll have one of my daughters show me how to do exactly that! I wanted something like that for posterity as well. As I assembled it in a fast and loose fashion I began to realize that were getting the "lip service" from DL in rapid fire succession and much more quickly than we did from stock analysts as the equity markets imploded! Generousity from the Fed will not help Mr. Lerah with his "inventory" problem. I thought that this was a pretty telling moment.

skibum Says:

"The other funny thing about Harvard students is precisely the notion of “dropping the H-bomb.” IE, there’s a certain subset of students there who base a large part of their self-image/self-worth on being associated with Harvard, so they derive some kind of perverse glee from mentioning having gone to school there in casual conversation."

I know a lot of single 30 something HBS woman and when they talk about the "H-bomb" they usually talking about getting dumped by a guy after he asked where they went to school and they had to "drop the H-bomb"...

I don't understand why so many woman (and some men) need to blame something when a guy (or girl) does not want to date them. It is very hard for a lot of people to accept that the other person just didn't want to date you…

I never have the guts to say it but I want to tell the tell these single HBS girls that blame the Hbomb for being single to look around and see that the few good looking HBS girls are in relationships and even most of the average looking girls don't have a problem getting a date (the problem is looks and weight, not where you went to grad school)...

I'm so sorry I started this MIT/Harvard/Stanford Jr. bashing.

Anyone up for a new thread? valuation of commodities? what's gold worth? etc. anyone? anyone?

FAB,

"(the problem is looks and weight, not where you went to grad school)…"

Waaaaaaait, does anybody look into personality and sanity? Maybe I'm just deluded, but my momma always taught me that looks come and go, but other qualities will stay.

I console myself with nothing more than the thought that my next home will be purchased for a fraction of today’s prices.

hmm, 9/10 is a fraction :(

Anyone up for a new thread? valuation of commodities? what’s gold worth? etc. anyone? anyone?

how about real estate ethics? bit like the 'ginger' thread, heh. or maybe i was just looking for an excuse to paste in this email belatedly (bye bye, ginger, we hardly knew you :P ):

Dear Subscriber

Insider trading is rampant in real estate. Many agents get away with conduct that would see stock brokers jailed.

I believe agents should be banned from buying properties from their clients. For this reason, I have always admired the ethos of the Raine & Horne network whose agents are forbidden from trading through their own agencies. Not so with most of the other big name chains.

Here are two recent cases worthy of attention. And perhaps your vocal (or written) assistance.

RETRACT AND APOLOGISE – OR ELSE!

This is one of the worst (and saddest) cases I have ever encountered. An agent bought the home of a mentally ill man. He is now pleading to be allowed to keep his home. But, because he dared to complain, he has been told to get out by next Friday, May 5. Despite the agent’s pathetic excuses, this is a shameful case of exploitation by a member of the world’s largest real estate chain (Century 21).

THE BUSHRANGER OF BAFFLE CREEK

A property owner made a gross profit of $20,000 in 17 years. The agent who bought his property made a gross profit of $32,000 in about 17 days. Let this case be a grim warning to all sellers to always get an independent valuer – or, at the very least, get three or four agents to give an opinion.

GEORGE MIHOS - TNTI
For a long time, we have been warning investors to steer well clear of this spruiker. Tonight, on Channel Nine at 6.30 pm, there may be a short story about a man who has long been fleecing investors. If you don’t get a chance to see it, you can read one of our earlier warnings below…

http://www.jenman.com.au/

hey, they've got US flags up in the window back in the 1920s or whenever it was, even tho they're living in abject poverty - from a demotic historiographic point of view, has that been common for a long time?

I once was charged $150 for “unauthorized window covering removal”. It was a $2 blind I bought for the bathroom window.

kinda makes you proud to be living in the land of the free... i'm getting all teary... :cry:

astrid Says:

"Waaaaaaait, does anybody look into personality and sanity? Maybe I’m just deluded, but my momma always taught me that looks come and go, but other qualities will stay."

We are all looking for someone that is sane with a great personality...

Every guy hopes to find a thin good looking wife who is also sane and has a great personality...

It is only the guys that have given up hope on finding someone that is good looking "and" has a great personality that ask out the chubby average looking gals...

FAB,

:) Well, as long as they look for sanity and personality first.

I think highly educated women, especially before they hit 35 or 40, tend to be overly demanding in their choice of mates. Because they did everything else very well in their lives, they think they'll have the same freedom in their choice of spouses. The reality is that by their mid 30s, a good chunk of the potential spouses are already married and the rest have their pick of clever attractive women ages 20 to 35.

Oh well, the world's cats needs homes...

I do not want to take people to court. Karma will get them just as quickly. Really.

With karma, you may have to wait several lifetimes, and payback will come in totally unrecognized forms…trust me, small claims court is much more satisfying.

a half-brick through their car window at night is also satisfying, and instant karma. especially since the cost of repair is less than their insurance deductible.

then, a month later, after they've had it repaired, you can do it again :)

*** Disclaimer: not behavioural advice. This is an exceptional result, your results may vary. No resemblance to actual living persons is intended or implied. ***

DS,

I'm not a believer in creative destruction, at least on a personal level.