patrick.net

RE: working into retirement, there's an annoying sense of entitlement from many retirees or soon-to-be retirees. Social Security, pension plans, our health care insurance system and the like were designed for a population that doesn't live much past 70 years old. Hence, retiring in your 60's led to no more than 10 years of retirement. Nowadays, with life expectency pushing or beyond 80 years, that's at least double the retirement time. Add to that the baby boomer demographics and the lack of retirement planning, and it's going to get ugly.

Zephyr Said:

Do not be depressed. Studies like this have been underestimating the future since before any of us were born. 30 years ago they told us there would be no more oil by now, that starvation and disease would cause a world crisis by now, that our economy would crash long ago.

What this study also fails to adequately include is the effect of the boomers on the labor markets during their working life. So many workers depress wages… for everyone. As the boomers retire a labor shortage will develop and real wages will climb faster than before.

I wouldn't be too sure about this, given the "perfect storm" preventing most Gen-Xers from moving into management (see Randy H's execellent 7:14am post) and the likely reality that many Boomers --especially late Boomers-- are going to have to work well into their golden years (see Newsfreak's 7:06 am post), thus tying up many of those plum openings that would otherwise go to Gen-X or Gen-Y workers.

I recall reading an article in Time (or Newsweek?) just as I was graduating from college 15 years ago that said my generation was going to have it better than any that came before it --including the Boomers. The author was convinced of this, because of this so-called future "labor shortage" caused by there being so few in my generation to take the place of retiring Boomers. We were all supposed to be fabulously wealthy and sought after by the time we reached 30.

Guess that prediction didn't turn out so well, did it? Nor do I expect Zephyr's re-hashed version of it to turn out to be broadly true, either --excepting a few Google-aire type lottery winners, of course.

Yes, better technology lead to greater productivity, and we have long been shifting from a mainly producer/industrial economy to service economy for some time now. However, I don't quite buy the line that all or most of those productivity gains are due to better technology. A lot of the productivity gains over the past 30 years have been due to working-class people simply working HARDER and LONGER for less pay). I also don't buy that a lot of these productivity gains actually get returned to workers in the form of pay and benefits. As Randy H already pointed out, the top 10-15% are getting fabulously wealthy, while the bottom 85% are treading water or losing ground.

tannenbaum Says:

Perhaps, but after spending your entire adult working life paying into these systems - SS and Medicare - one would at least logically hope to see something from it. If I’m not going to receive any of these benefits in 30 years then I shouldn’t have to pay into them now!!

Well, wouldn't that be great, if we could elect not to contribute to SS or FICA and pocket the $$ instead? For anyone later than the Boomer generation, that would be advantageous, since we're not likely to see any return from that "investment," given a bankrupt system.

Another problem with the "retiring Boomers = labor shortage & windfall for Gen-X/Y" theory is the workers : retirees ratio. Right now it's something like 3 workers : 1 retiree (mostly WWII & Silent gen). In 20 years it'll be 1.5 : 1.

Think your payroll taxes & FICA (S.S. & Medicare) are high now? Just wait til 2026.

Do not be depressed. Studies like this have been underestimating the future since before any of us were born. 30 years ago they told us there would be no more oil by now, that starvation and disease would cause a world crisis by now, that our economy would crash long ago.

There soon won't be any more oil....So they were off a few years!

Sounds like 5 years ago:

bubblehead >
The bubble is going to break in about a year and all property prices will crash.

housing bull >
Nonsense, it is different this time. Real estate will just keep going up, not because the fundamentals are there, but because I say so!

2 years later:

housing bull >
What bubble? There's no bubble! Look at the fool who said that real estate was going to crash last year and it appreciated another 60% instead.

bubblehead >
No one can predict the exact date that the bubble will crash. My prediction of a housing crash will happen, possibly next year.

2 years later:
housing bull >
Look I gave you another 2 years. Real estate only goes up.

bubblehead >
I'm not making anymore predictions, but I'm sticking to my guns that RE is going to crash!

It is now june of 2006:
Housing bull is in denial thinking that somehow the real estate market will get going again, but it's never going to happen. Housing bull has nothing to say....
Bubblehead's prediction is off by several years but it did happen. The bubble has popped and the crash is under way.

"Go back to 1493 if you don’t like financial accounting."

Randy H -- Actually, I enjoyed reading your Accounting 101 posts today. Glad you took the time. You did a good job. But as for 1493 -- just one question -- if I go back to that, does that mean I get to see you in a chastity belt with one of those cool metal pee tubes installed in the front? Those are cool!

I recall reading an article in Time (or Newsweek?) just as I was graduating from college 15 years ago that said my generation was going to have it better than any that came before it –including the Boomers. The author was convinced of this, because of this so-called future “labor shortage” caused by there being so few in my generation to take the place of retiring Boomers. We were all supposed to be fabulously wealthy and sought after by the time we reached 30.

HARM,

I recall when I was in grade school, companies were outsourcing manufacturing jobs and my teacher was explaining this to us all. My teacher explained to us that we must learn specialized trades when we grow up because manufacturing jobs would be either outsourced or taken over by robots. The teacher asked us all what we were going to do..... I said I was going to build the robots, I figured that would be a safe career. I have become an Engineer, a specialized trade and even these kinds of trades are being outsourced. I would never be comforted by one article by one author.

allah,

I must have been one of your less discussed "prototype models".

I suppose much of the reason I still don't identify with the boomer crowd is b/c when I came off active duty military in 1989 the stock market had just crashed and employers were taking some pretty austere measures. Boomers were feeling pretty good about themselves so they were generous with "quota" hiring. PC became all the rage. Many of the guys in my "reserve" unit got decent gov. jobs they'd had since they returned from the Viet Nam era. Their attitude was (as always) I got mine, go get yours. B/c there were so few mfr. jobs and fierce competition for technical jobs many of us wound up in sales. For me it worked out. But think about it. When I came to retail brokerage, their were no existing clients for you to manage. There were NO benefits. Basically it was, there's your desk, here's a phonebook and a roll of quarters so get callin'! No real training to speak of, just a "boot strap" effort and a lot of OT. So what did my "employer" really give me? Well, we had to pay for our leads, rent our desk and cover our phone bills. So........ basically nothing. That's why me likey boomers!

HARM,

My point is when you're "taking deep pork" in the job market it's often difficult until YEARS later. Most of the logic I was fed went along these lines. "Hey kid, my first job wasn't my dream job either!" "None of us start at the top!" So you tell yourself that you're just a whiner and need to "suck it up" and you'll get your chance! Well, two years of night classes later. Then three years goes by and you finally have to simply reject all of the bad dope you've been fed, fall back and regroup! There's a lot of career guidance "malpractice" going on out there.

@DinOR,

I think many fiscally conservative, working-class late Boomers such as yourself have a perspective much closer to Gen-X than to the generally spoiled uber-PC early Boomers. For that matter, there are some extremely obnoxious Gen-X/Y snotty spoiled-rich brat types (Paris Hilton) with whom I cannot identify at all.

Fuck the elite, ruling greed class of all ages and colors. Long live the Proletariat! :-)

I think many fiscally conservative, working-class late Boomers such as yourself have a perspective much closer to Gen-X than to the generally spoiled uber-PC early Boomers.

Late boomers have Pluto in Virgo, real boomers have Pluto in Leo. They are very different indeed.

BTW, I am quite spoiled, especially when it comes to food.

We should not hate boomers. They are simply who they are.

Pluto in Virgo

What does that mean?

http://www.astrologyweekly.com/learn-astrology/pluto-in-virgo.php

Fuck the elite, ruling greed class of all ages and colors. Long live the Proletariat!

We jest, but anyone with a long view of history knows that Revolution is a risk when the ruling class takes an excessive share of society's fruits. Unfortunately, the middle class (which I assume is the majority on this board) rarely sees their fortunes improved with the revolution.

Also, with new wiretapping rules, it should be a lot easier to stifle dissent and claim counter-terrorism when you go Brazil on the radicals who are dissatisfied.

Hold on, we have an unusual visitor coming over to my cube. BRB...

Fuck the elite, ruling greed class of all ages and colors. Long live the Proletariat!

Are you now or have you ever been a communist?

HARM,

Thanks! The weird part is that true died in the wool boomers can smell a guy like me coming a mile away. I figured out early on that I would never be a part of their club. Typically they'll warn their friends in advance. The minute they find or figure out you're from a lower middle class neighborhood (and judging from your age) they know there are others infinitely more worthy of their considerable generousity.

Well, gee thanks for the heads up "Chad" I kinda fucking figured that out for myself.

YOUR COMMUNICATIONS ARE BEING MONITORED AND ARE FOUND IN VIOLATION OF THE COUNTER-TERRORISM ACT. CEASE AND DESIST. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

There are always the ruler and the ruled. We should always find peace.

"A friends and B friends are not a trait specific to boomers. I have observed this in many states, families, and age groups."

You have observed this in many states and families because there are boomers in every state and every family. As for the age, you're referring to people who learned how to behave from boomers. Stop defending boomers. Nobody wants to hear that nonsense.

OO Says:

> I am starting to think that this country needs a fundamental
> shift of wealth distribution, or something crazy like this may
> actually stick for many years to come. If we go down this path
> without turning back, this may mark the beginning of new
> serfdom for the mass.

The US is just “reverting to the mean” and will soon be like most countries throughout recorded history when a very small number of people control a large amount of the wealth…

> It seems that we are in a very peculiar state of economy.
> There are a bunch of top earners, and increasing number
> of them (although a very small percent of the total US
> population) earning insane compensation packages, while the
> mass earn less and less, adjusted for inflation. Since these
> jobs tend to concentrate in certain areas, and everyone
> wants to live in certain enclaves, and houses are priced by
> the marginal inventory, it is very likely that we may even see
> APPRECIATION for a bunch of middle upper class properties
> while the general housing sector suffers.

Very rich people in the Bay Area is not something new…

When I was a kid I caddied for many guys who’s relatives ran the railroads in California since the 1800’s who had more money thirty years ago than most of the Google millionaires have today. Super rich people have a lot of super smart people helping them with their money and since a super rich person does not really worry about “getting in to a home before they are priced out of the market forever” they will only buy homes when prices are going up and tend to sell and rent when prices start to go in the other direction. The biggest percentage drops in home prices from 1991-1993 in the Bay Area were in Hillsborough and Atherton…

P.S. More than half the people I know that make over $1mm a year are renting right now…

Somehow to be the consummate boomer one either needs the illusion or reality that they turned their back on the "establishment".

"Yeah, I could have gone to work for my old man". He's got tons of money. In fact that's all he ever talks about. I just wanted to make a difference man". That's why I got into forestry/basket weaving/etc!

Well never mind that boomer will get all of the old man's money in the end anyway (assuming we're on the reality side of the equation) it just wouldn't be the same to boomer without a 35 year period where "we weren't talking man".

This part of boomer's world is not negotiable.

SFWoman Says:

> We have an old fashioned hardware store, Fredrickson’s,
> with a high level of service in Cow Hollow here in the city.
> No pot bellied stove, but you always see people you know
> when you are there and people immediately come to help
> you. I bought a Swiss army knife there yesterday...

If we ever get a Home Depot in SF stores like Fredrickson's and Cole Hardware will die. It kills me every time I spend a penny at those stores since the prices are so high. A while back I noticed that they were selling single plastic trash cans for the same price as Costco was selling six (6) of the same trash cans...

P.S. Take a look at the price of the knife at Froogle or eBay. I bet you could have bought it for half as much if you got it on line...

P.P.S. I recently bought a knife that was on sale at REI and even after getting it for ~$20 less than the sale price using my REI rebate I found the same knife on line for much less

Are you now or have you ever been a communist?

I'm not sure. I'm pro-gun ownership, pro-balanced budget, anti-price controls & anti-illegal, but pro-choice, pro-civil rights, pro-publicly funded education & healthcare and anti-corruption. What does that make me?

Oh, wait... we already covered this is in the "Libertarian Conundrum" thread.

To put it simply boomers have to at least claim that for part of their lives that they:

Reject wealth

Found self

Without this, I'm sorry. Having never gone through this period of self discovery there is no entry into the kingdom of boomerdom. I'm sorry it's just not possible and there are NO exceptions!

Red Whine,

I was only using 1494 to highlight the fact that accounting is not some kind of new-fangled distortion invented by those wishing to confound unfrozen cavemen.

Until you have grey hair, few people take you seriously. And by then, noone pays that much attention to you.

I have lots of grey hair already...

Ray W,

Yeah, I was born in 1959 too. But I didn't really "grow up in the 60's". I was an infant, toddler and grade schooler. I just don't seem to recall a whole lot of peace, love and dope? I read about Viet Nam in my weekly reader for crissakes! I wasn't even considered a "boomer" until I got back from the service in 1989. Huh? News to me! I'm not, (even if I wanted to join) and I don't believe they are accepting anything other than "conditional memberships" when they need your vote.

I kind of laugh because all the benefits of life they have are because of the boomers…their parents.

Ah yes, the benefits...

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.html

not including SS liabilities.

Oh thank you sir, can I have another?

My parents were silent Generation, but my Dad still laughs evily whenever I decry the expected taxation rate in 2020...

newsfreak,

Well then I'm just plain sorry. All of the tied died T shirts in Berkley won't save you. They might consider you a "social member" but you will never break the "inner circle". Wrecking a car (unintentionally) that you bought and paid for by your self doesn't make for nearly as funny a boomer story where it was the old man's company car! Does that help put things in better perspective? For anyone?

Well never mind that boomer will get all of the old man’s money in the end anyway.

Is this really true? I keep hearing that the Boomers are going to inherit a fortune once the WWII generation starts to die off.

There are two things that puzzle me about this. First, the WWII generation is ALREADY dying off, and has been for the last 20-30 years at least.

Second, not everyone from the WWII generation is rich! Yeah, George Bush Sr. will probably leave a healhtly estate when he passes away, but what about some retired machinist in Toledo? THAT'S your typical WWII generation grandparent. Most Boomers aren't descended from wealthy east coast aristocrats, they are descended from people in Kansas City and Idaho who maybe own a modest tract home and an 8 year-old Buick.

Third, these estates will be distributed among several Boomers. Take my late grandmother. When she died, she left her modest, aging ranch house in suburban Chicago, which was probably valued around $125k. She had three kids, so each got roughly $40k. That's not a very big inheritance, certainly not enough to fund a Boomer's retirement!

Finally, who is to say that the Boomers will responsibly invest these inheritiances? Certainly not me! I bet a lot of them will take the check and buy a new Hummer, or maybe do what my mother did when she got a $10,000 gift from my grandmother in July, 1999 -- invest the entire amount in tech stocks! I told her not to do that, but she woudln't listen.

I have always believed that the idea that Boomers are going to inherit a bunch of money is just a myth.

Ray W,

So when all of the Gen x-ers and Gen-yer’s (whatever that is really supposed to mean) whine about the boomers I kind of laugh because all the benefits of life they have are because of the boomers…their parents.

A significant number of Xers, perhaps slightly over half, do not have Boomer parents, they have Silent Generation (or Eisenhower Era) parents. These are not Boomers, they share more in common with the GI generation. My parents fall into this category. It was during that generation, not the Boomers, that the average age at which women started having children started to rise and the average number of children per family started to fall.

I don't really join in on the Boomer trashing because I think it's a bit pointless. But I will say that, in general, I find the Boomers inexplicably most willing to take credit for any and everything regardless of whether they are in actual fact responsible. By contrast, my generation pretty much takes credit for nothing.

DinOR,

Yeah, I was born in 1959 too. But I didn’t really “grow up in the 60’s”. I was an infant, toddler and grade schooler.

Exactly, thank you. Boomers declaring their own generation's victories should probably first check to make sure their not, in fact, claiming credit for the previous generation's contributions.

Silent Gen was VERY different than Boomers. Boomers have more in common with X than Silent.

-their
+they're

Ray W,

I remember watching the White Sox on a 12" B&W TV, Gilligan's Island (after school) playing whiffle ball in the alley and getting in trouble for exchanging "play money" for real quarters at the laundromat. I'm not challenging your recollections it's just that I doubt that the "Time/Life" image of an execution was shown on TV. I don't even think they would broadcast that today. I had a happy (if not oblivious) childhood where my biggest problems were bullies and hiding "girlie" magazines from mom. Just my take.

@Randy H:

"I was only using 1494 to highlight the fact that accounting is not some kind of new-fangled distortion invented by those wishing to confound unfrozen cavemen."

I know exactly what you were saying -- I just wanted an excuse to say "chastity belt with one of those cool metal pee tubes". Sorry to involve you in my personal madness.

My own parents were sort of in between the Silent Gen and Boomers. My mom was born in 1944, and she's a pretty stereotypical 70's liberal. Interestingly, although her parents lived out east and had a great deal of $$$, she has lived in Chicago and worked as a nurse since the 60's and in that time has acquired the views and habits of a working-class Chicagoan, although she will deny vehemently deny this, as she still sees herself as someone with "good breeding." She has the lifestyle of a typical Boomer -- divorced, spends every cent she makes, etc. -- but the stereotypical views of a 1950's working-class Chicagoan, it's strange.

My dad was born in 1941, but he was the most Boomer-like of my parents in terms of his lifestyle (in the most important way of all, though, he was unlike the Boomers in that he was a great dad). He was sort of a 1950's version of a hippie, I guess you'd call it a "beatnik." My dad was too old for Woodstock and the Summer of Love, and he really regretted this. He spent the rest of his life trying to make up for lost time. When I was 12 he started dating this much younger chick who followed the Greatful Dead (her license plate read G DEAD) and began dealing pot on the side to the other cab drivers in town. He had this whole hydroponic garden in the bedroom of his house, and all of these books with titles like "THE HIGHEST QUALITY INDOOR AND OUTDOOR MARAJUANA GROWER'S GUIDE" He did stuff like that his whole life.

I love my parents, but I have always looked at their lives and pretty much tried to do the opposite of everything they did. So far, it's worked out. I remember joining the Boy Scouts as a kid becuase they seemed like the squarest organization imaginable. My parents were, predictably, opposed to the idea (the uniforms are like, para-millitary, man!) but somehow I knew that if my parents were made uncomfortable by them, the Boy Scouts must be doing something right.

My Dad used to laugh that evil laugh, until they started raising his Medicare monthly premiums, then he realized they were going to nick him too. Not so funny now.

By charging him a fraction for his own health care? How shocking!

Look again at that hockey-stick over the past 6 years on the debt graph. This has been incurred mainly by Bush's tax cuts (and military adventurism, but let's ignore that for now). While I've received a very generous share of these cuts, most of it goes to boomers who are in their peak earning years right now. We all know this can't last, and most of the reasonably well-heeled Gen-Xers would gladly accept increased taxes now to prevent crushingly burdensome taxes later.

The boomers are loading us up with debt and their retirement liabilities. While Asian CBs are buying some of this debt, demographics suggest that the majority of domestic holders are boomers.

Thus you're undertaxing yourselves now, shifting the resultant debt on the next generation and then collecting the payments in one of the greatest financial scams in history. All gen-X can do is save like crazy and wait for the earthquake. Oh, and try to vote the Republicans out of office.

Expected reply: "The Democrats won't be any better." Check the debt graph again. The chronology speaks for itself.

HARM,

Damn!

"Well, o.k then, son"

That is SO funny! There were older kids on my block too. Their parents were WW2 folks that were so trusting, so loving and so........ dumb. Before they knew it 18 years of solid upbringing and unwavering attention yielded zip-point-squat. For every kid on our block that got messed up in NAM there were ten that messed up their lives on the next block over. I think these trusting WW2 parents thought what their kids meant when they said they needed to "find themselves" was they were going to down to the river to use the rope swing!

Ray W,

All I said was I doubt they showed some poor guy getting his brains blown out at a time when there were only three channels on TV. Many of my friends are Nam Vets and I served 9 years active Navy and 4 in the reserves. I respect these guys. I just get tired when boomers bring up the most violent images possible to drum up support for whatever cause it is that they're currently working on.