patrick.net

Nothing wrong with probing questions to better understand what is going on to better educate yourself.

At this point, there is no requirement for any bank that holds "shadow inventory" to provide disclosure.

I have to head to work at the moment but Wells Fargo and their acquisitions of a few banks with heavy toxic loans on the book as an interesting start. It is an issue with resets and recasts and from what I remember Wells modified many of these loans to Interest Only for an extended time to let the loan owners and the market work things out but I'll check into the details later today. Sorry I can't recall the details at this moment.

I personally know two people who haven't made payments in about a year but the foreclosure process has not begun. Are the banks backlogged?

#1) RE pro's are liars. They suck. Do not bother asking them anything, they are scum.
#2) The people that contact the bank to try to adjust their payemts are foreclosed on faster than they ones that just stop making payments and stay off the radar.
#3) The entire REO problem would be fixed if the laws about public property (FANNY held houses are public property) were used and the assetts were liquidated in a true public auction. The fact that we are allowing the RE pro's to controll the REO market is absurd. These are public assetts and should be auctioned in public to the highest bidder ... not "marketed" by the REwhores, with a price "fixed" by the fraudsters known as BPO agents. THis system is Fed up -- FUBAR -- and the REwhores are laughing all the way to the bank.

Bap33 says

#1) RE pro’s are liars. They suck. Do not bother asking them anything, they are scum.

Truer words never spoken. However:
Bap33 says

the REwhores are laughing all the way to the bank.

I don't think so. Realtors aren't selling much at the moment. At least in my area.

I hear tell of many people who haven't made a payment in over a year and still no foreclosed upon. wtf?

SeekingAlpha.com is where I read about Wells Fargo but I am having trouble getting the site to come up.

This page might clear things up.

http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/index.html#TARP

Consumer and Business Lending Initiative

* TALF investment * $20 billion actually spent 20 billion
* Small business loan program * $15 billion actually spent 0
* TALF loss provisions * $35 billion actually spent 0

Programs to support private lending purchases of toxic assets and backing SBA loans. Also sets aside funds to backstop potential losses to government from purchases of mortgage-backed securities and other securities backed by consumer loans.

Well the SBA never got squat, but all of the TALF money earmarked for the investment, i.e. the myriad of investors in the worst hit markets got every cent they needed to buy up these houses for pennies on the dollar.

Since the Government, the same agency, and act, didn't actually spend one red cent of the funds designed to buy up the band loans, as that would have been counter productive for the investors.

Meaning if the Government was willing to give the banks the full nickle for those sour loans on the books, then why in the hell would they budge one damn penny and sell them at a greater loss to the investors?

These guys owns these houses out right now, and as long as there no hurry to pay it back, if they even have to. Then why would or should they sell. They are just waiting for Uncle Ben Bernakie to jump start this party now.

I just checked my old house which we sold 2.5 years ago on Property Shark and it is still listing me as the owner. I'll have to check their methodology. I suppose if I paid of an account I'd get mortgage info on potential rental properties?

Leigh says

I personally know two people who haven’t made payments in about a year but the foreclosure process has not begun. Are the banks backlogged?

No, its not a backlog problem. State legislatures are pushing extensions in foreclosure process.

And from this site:

http://financemymoney.com/option-arms-wells-fargo-convert-interest-only/

...Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, holds more than $107 billion in debt tied to option-adjustable rate mortgages...

...To solve that conundrum, Wells Fargo is taking a gamble: The bank is issuing thousands of interest-only loans that will defer borrowers’ balances for as long as six to 10 years. Wells Fargo is wagering that an eventual rise in housing prices in the country’s worst-hit regions, along with a rise in consumers’ income, will eventually combine to cover the bank’s billions in underwater Pick-A-Pay debt.

“We’re banking on the fact the economy will improve and recover over time,” Michael Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, said in an interview.”

How's that for shadow inventory...

thomas.wong87 says

Leigh says

I personally know two people who haven’t made payments in about a year but the foreclosure process has not begun. Are the banks backlogged?

No, its not a backlog problem. State legislatures are pushing extensions in foreclosure process.

Pushing? Perhaps. But it's an ongoing problem, didn't just happen. I think banks aren't foreclosing so that they're not responsible for taxes, problems, etc. They're overwhelmed - but I haven't heard of one piece of legislation that supports the practice of just not foreclosing and leaving the homeowner in limbo.

Leigh says

And from this site:
http://financemymoney.com/option-arms-wells-fargo-convert-interest-only/
…Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, holds more than $107 billion in debt tied to option-adjustable rate mortgages…
…To solve that conundrum, Wells Fargo is taking a gamble: The bank is issuing thousands of interest-only loans that will defer borrowers’ balances for as long as six to 10 years. Wells Fargo is wagering that an eventual rise in housing prices in the country’s worst-hit regions, along with a rise in consumers’ income, will eventually combine to cover the bank’s billions in underwater Pick-A-Pay debt.
“We’re banking on the fact the economy will improve and recover over time,” Michael Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, said in an interview.”
How’s that for shadow inventory…

So, get the borrowers to pay for 6-10 years and never get any equity. I.e., rent, but have a huge loan hanging over your head that you may never get out from under. I guess I see the bank's point of view, but why would an 'owner' want to do this? Given the size of some mortgages the interest alone could more than rent on a comp.

pkowen says

Leigh says

And from this site:

http://financemymoney.com/option-arms-wells-fargo-convert-interest-only/

…Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, holds more than $107 billion in debt tied to option-adjustable rate mortgages…

…To solve that conundrum, Wells Fargo is taking a gamble: The bank is issuing thousands of interest-only loans that will defer borrowers’ balances for as long as six to 10 years. Wells Fargo is wagering that an eventual rise in housing prices in the country’s worst-hit regions, along with a rise in consumers’ income, will eventually combine to cover the bank’s billions in underwater Pick-A-Pay debt.

“We’re banking on the fact the economy will improve and recover over time,” Michael Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, said in an interview.”

How’s that for shadow inventory…

So, get the borrowers to pay for 6-10 years and never get any equity. I.e., rent, but have a huge loan hanging over your head that you may never get out from under. I guess I see the bank’s point of view, but why would an ‘owner’ want to do this? Given the size of some mortgages the interest alone could more than rent on a comp.

Why would the owner doe this, ie 'rent'? The excuse given was to stay in a particular school district for the kiddos.

And to delay the foreclosure process allows the banks to delay the write downs which don't look good on Wall Street.

1) Most realtors don't end up selling that much property. Apparently most of those people working out there only close on a couple of houses a year. A very small number actually make a killing at their jobs. So I'm guessing that the reason many don't know where these houses are going, is because they don't have enough contacts/influence to get answers, or simply don't understand what is going on. They're just pushing their companies lines, or what they've heard.

2) Home owners are probably hoping to get out of debt, keep their houses, and in doing so just paying off interest. In the end they're paying a 6 year gamble in hopes of being in a better position. eg the market takes off and they're way above water again. The banks probably realize this isn't going to happen, but by spreading the pain over 10+ years, they can spread their losses out and cover themselves. They might not get the best returns for these types of investments, but that is probably better than flooding the market with homes and selling for a huge loss today. 10 years of interest payments THEN selling is better than selling today, taking a huge loss and finding a better loan to invest into today. Laws might change in their favor over those next 10 years too.

Leigh says

And from this site:
http://financemymoney.com/option-arms-wells-fargo-convert-interest-only/
…Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, holds more than $107 billion in debt tied to option-adjustable rate mortgages…
…To solve that conundrum, Wells Fargo is taking a gamble: The bank is issuing thousands of interest-only loans that will defer borrowers’ balances for as long as six to 10 years. Wells Fargo is wagering that an eventual rise in housing prices in the country’s worst-hit regions, along with a rise in consumers’ income, will eventually combine to cover the bank’s billions in underwater Pick-A-Pay debt.
“We’re banking on the fact the economy will improve and recover over time,” Michael Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, said in an interview.”
How’s that for shadow inventory…

Thanks for posting this. I'd say, it's all starting to make sense. Banks are paid (funded) by the government to delay the resets/recasts 5-10 years. Government generates inflation over the next few years to bring up the price of houses. People will no longer be underwater and will be able to sell their houses when it's time for the resets/recasts to occur. Will it work?

camping says

Leigh says

And from this site:

http://financemymoney.com/option-arms-wells-fargo-convert-interest-only/

…Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, holds more than $107 billion in debt tied to option-adjustable rate mortgages…

…To solve that conundrum, Wells Fargo is taking a gamble: The bank is issuing thousands of interest-only loans that will defer borrowers’ balances for as long as six to 10 years. Wells Fargo is wagering that an eventual rise in housing prices in the country’s worst-hit regions, along with a rise in consumers’ income, will eventually combine to cover the bank’s billions in underwater Pick-A-Pay debt.

“We’re banking on the fact the economy will improve and recover over time,” Michael Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, said in an interview.”

How’s that for shadow inventory…

Thanks for posting this. I’d say, it’s all starting to make sense. Banks are paid (funded) by the government to delay the resets/recasts 5-10 years. Government generates inflation over the next few years to bring up the price of houses. People will no longer be underwater and will be able to sell their houses when it’s time for the resets/recasts to occur. Will it work?

But they are paying interest only, not making a dent in the principle and some of these folks have lost 40+% of their home's value. How long will it take in this environment (ie another JOBLESS recovery, stagnant wages, rising healthcare costs...) for homes to appreciate to these levels again. Then subtract those pesky 6% realtor fees (sorry, but always got remember the cost of selling.)

The gamble is looking rather risky. And I believe values will drop some more in many areas when the $8Kcredit expires.

I don't know, the government has a lot of money to throw around. If they want to create inflation, I think they can (especially with the banks' help). And if the banks aren't foreclosing on people, it doesn't matter if they make $0. They are better off actually than renting, they are living rent free.

Love the thread -- thank you. Just a minor point...does anyone have an on point response to any of the questions posed in my post? Most importantly, does anyone have any insight into what the banks are doing with the growing shadow inventory (i.e., the inventory of homes that have been foreclosed on -- REOs)? The banks are foreclosing, perhaps at an increasing rate (I don't know for sure). Why is the housing inventory (in Santa Clara County) shrinking when the number of foreclosed homes is increasing? Any thoughts or all we all genuinely in the dark?

Um, in the dark:O(

Tenouncetrout says

This page might clear things up.
http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/index.html#TARP
Consumer and Business Lending Initiative
* TALF investment * $20 billion actually spent 20 billion
* Small business loan program * $15 billion actually spent 0
* TALF loss provisions * $35 billion actually spent 0
Programs to support private lending purchases of toxic assets and backing SBA loans. Also sets aside funds to backstop potential losses to government from purchases of mortgage-backed securities and other securities backed by consumer loans.
Well the SBA never got squat, but all of the TALF money earmarked for the investment, i.e. the myriad of investors in the worst hit markets got every cent they needed to buy up these houses for pennies on the dollar.
Since the Government, the same agency, and act, didn’t actually spend one red cent of the funds designed to buy up the band loans, as that would have been counter productive for the investors.
Meaning if the Government was willing to give the banks the full nickle for those sour loans on the books, then why in the hell would they budge one damn penny and sell them at a greater loss to the investors?
These guys owns these houses out right now, and as long as there no hurry to pay it back, if they even have to. Then why would or should they sell. They are just waiting for Uncle Ben Bernakie to jump start this party now.

Remind me, what is Ben Bernanke going to do to jumpstart home sales?

hooch_raider says

Love the thread — thank you. Just a minor point…does anyone have an on point response to any of the questions posed in my post?

At this point no one knows since its not disclosed. You may wish to read their next earnings release or listen to the conference fall from Wells, BofA etc etc... They may mentions something about it.

E-man says

On top of loan modifications, some banks are currently doing PRINCIPLE REDUCTION. Let’s say you bought a home for $700k in 2006; now it’s worth $450k. The bank will issue a new loan for $450k and write-off $250k

Modification means modification but not forgiveness. It may mean extension of term from 30-40 years, or taking homeowner equity first before homeowner get any left over gains when they sell it down the road.
Its really called "debt restructuring',,, not forgiveness.

hooch_raider says

Love the thread — thank you. Just a minor point…does anyone have an on point response to any of the questions posed in my post? Most importantly, does anyone have any insight into what the banks are doing with the growing shadow inventory (i.e., the inventory of homes that have been foreclosed on — REOs)? The banks are foreclosing, perhaps at an increasing rate (I don’t know for sure). Why is the housing inventory (in Santa Clara County) shrinking when the number of foreclosed homes is increasing? Any thoughts or all we all genuinely in the dark?

Are the banks actually foreclosing? Just because there is a high number of NODs, if the banks just let people stay in their homes, then there's no foreclosure. Plus, with the push towards loan mods, there's no guarantee that the homes will ever be foreclosed on.

4X says

Remind me, what is Ben Bernanke going to do to jumpstart home sales?

Well he has Magical powers, he interviewed Congress and informed them, he will be having another term as Fed Chairman, and if they don't like then tough titties!

Tim Gunther called Obama Tuesdays address, poorly misguided ramblings, and there won't be no shit like stopping the TARP and recycling it into the SBA, and bailouts for Mainstreet. He is taking upon him self to extend the TARP act until Oct 2010, and if Obama and the other Clowns on the hill doesn't like it, he will command Kingons to destroy Washington and NYC.

e-man:

Your numbers look ok, but I'm wondering if many of those possible forclosures will roll over into reo's or short sales in the coming months. New ones will roll in of course, but the rolling effect might keep many of those off the market. The change in that number month or month is what would be interesting, as it would be a better indicator of short sales failing and reo's not absorbing potential homes.

camping says
Are the banks actually foreclosing? Just because there is a high number of NODs, if the banks just let people stay in their homes, then there’s no foreclosure. Plus, with the push towards loan mods, there’s no guarantee that the homes will ever be foreclosed on.

Camping,

From what I can tell, the banks are actually foreclosing, and I mean following through on foreclosure sales. I receive a local business paper every week which lists the foreclosure sales scheduled to take place the following week on the court house steps. The number of scheduled foreclosure sales has consistently been between 75 - 150 every week since I started counting (approximately 12 weeks or so).

Hence, I ask the question: Why is the inventory in Santa Clara County decreasing when the number of REO homes is increasing? The obvious answer appears to be that banks are hold the REO inventory back -- but why? One would think that banks would allow at least enough of a stream of REOs to come on the market to keep the overall inventory of homes for sale at a consistent level. Instead, we are seeing inventory drop to rediculous lows. What is going on?

I agree with other posters that banks (along with government assistance) have delayed the foreclosure process down significantly. However, that does not explain what banks are doing with those homes they have actually foreclosed on. Does anyone have some inside scoop?

The banks are holding back REO's to help out their pardnas in crime, the REwhores Brokers