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Randy H,

O.K just open the housing ETF's at $10 a share? These guys always seem so hungry for new offerings, I'm giving it 6 months! They don't necessarily have to base it on the Case Shiller model, they'll think of something.

Shanghai is way better than BA, hands down, except for the horrible summer weather.

Isn't it too hot in the summer. The pollution is likely to be worse though.

I heard that food in Shanghai is very good. :)

Not only can you save on the purchase price, but you can have instant equity in your home.

Instant equity?

When people say cultured places in America, NY and New England come to mind. Some parts of old South, too, although I haven't been there.

When we say cultured places on this planet, the old world come to mind. Italy, Southern France, old towns in China and India, blah, blah, and blah.

In cultured places, there are traditions and people know their places in this world.

The world cultured means aged when one talks about certain food items. But the same holds for the culture of a society.

CA has nice coast lines. Nice, but not great. When I was an intern at SGI in 1994, a bunch of intern geeks (mostly from the east coast) went to visit many parts of CA with a BA native. Cool. But I wasn't impressed. The east coast is far better, if not for the insufferable summer.

I don't know why building a mansion on a view cliff is such a grand thing. I for one would be bored by such a dwelling. Occasional weekend hideaways, yes. But primary dwellings? No way.

The so-called beautiful, expensive, scenary places are for middle-class suckers who never had money and struck rich later in their life.

About TFS, from CME, for those interested:

http://www.cme.com/files/TFSHousingPresentation.pdf

HARM,

Maybe I worded that incorrectly. Let me put it this way, even hacks like myself will from time to time hit a "decent" golf shot. Friends will kid you about how you're really "sandbagging" and are a better golfer than you let on.

But to yourself you're thinking "Man, and I was just about to give up this STUPID game entirely". "Maybe I don't suck as bad as I thought". So your love for the game is renewed all over again.

Are there rare instances where you find you CAN get home in under an hour? Where there IS a great sunset? Like just enough to keep you going?

HARM, SHTF,

Hope the decision works out for you. Good luck. It must have been a tough decision. But you have to do what you have to do. California - or any place - is not worth putting you life in mortgage slavery or on hold. You will miss something, you will gain something. As long as result is more aggregate happiness for you, that's all that matters.

RE: When is it a buyers' market? I think the reason realtors are calling this current market a buyers' market is that they really don't have a better name for it. It's a stagnant market really, where sellers and buyers both have no particular advantage, and the people who are worst off are the realtors due to lack of transactions. The realtor-spin is clearly calling this a buyers market to try and get transactions going again. However, until buyers set the agenda at negotiations (eg, when Randy's lowball offers get consistent and earnest counteroffers), that's when we're approaching a real buyers market.

And…I’m in my 40s and would like to know the feeling of ‘owning outright’.

It may not be a strong feeling... property tax, insurance, and other fees will still need to be paid.

It is better to be a king with everything provided for. :)

Governor Conan Says:

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

lol. Is there a 12-step program for blogging addiction?

The BA is overrated. I like it here just fine. It's certainly prettier, with better outdoor activities, food and possibly better culture than some parts of the country. However, it's definitely not the be-all and end-all.

Prettiness, outdoor activities: Tetons, Tahoe, PNW, Colorado Rockies, southern Utah all come to mind as prettier with better access to outdoor stuff (opinion).

Food: NYC is comparable, if not better.

Culture: NYC, Chicago, LA, ?DC, Boston are all comparable if not better.

There are just a lot of people in the BA who HAVE to believe this is a better place to live in order to justify the rat race, paying $1000/sf for crappy homes, hellish commutes, and overcrowdedness in general.

Food: NYC is comparable, if not better.

APAC cuisines taste funny in NYC, although it has much better Italian and Continental food.

Culture: NYC, Chicago, LA, ?DC, Boston are all comparable if not better.

To me, culture is all about food. Boston has good seafood.

I want close to a half acre…4br. and 3 baths and at least 2400 sq ft. And of course mature trees.

I do not know what I want yet...

Sometimes, I _dream_ about a 3000 sqft, 3 bedroom, 4.5 bath condo with a doorman.

Sometimes, I fancy a cute Victorian house.

Sometimes, I just do not care. :)

Good mexican food is tough to find in NYC and Boston. The BEST Thai I’ve ever had is at Brown Sugar in Boston. But I can’t claim to be an expert.

Good Mexican food is tough to find even in California. I am not an expert in Mexican food though.

It is actually not difficult to judge food even if you know nothing about the cuisine: food is considered good only if you can feel every ingredient singing.

A buyer's market means a young professional couple like me and my wife were 12 years ago could easily afford an average home in the blue ribbon neighborhoods of the Bay Area (3x household income) on a traditional 20% down, 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

A buyer's market means there were so few buyers as compared to the sellers that the sellers bent over backwards to make the sale happen, we got half a house full of furniture thrown in for free.

A buyer's market means the shell or whatever structure they erected on top of a lot is thrown in for free and seller will pay for the eradication. The shell will become a negative cost to the buyer.

I bought in the last buyer's market, and I will know when it is buyer's market again. We are far from it, but I can wait for 2009 or 2010.

For “high culture,” NYC edges the BA, in my opinion. For low culture, well, that’s what Graceland is for.

Graceland is pretty damned high culture in my book! IMO, NYC is a clearcut favorite over the BA for culture. NYC is among the world cities for art, music, dance, trendsetting. BA has maybe trendsetting for pop-culture, but that's about it.

APAC cuisines taste funny in NYC, although it has much better Italian and Continental food.

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think. Chinese food in Flushing, Korean near Madison Sq Gdn, and all kinds of other stuff. Sushi's a wash between the two. Italian, pizza, deli food, bagels are hands down better in the east, but BA has better Mexican, California cuisine (duh!), and Southeast Asian. There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It'll be interesting to see how many the BA will get. French Laundry is a shoe-in, but the others, even Gary Danko, I'm not so sure about.

The BEST Thai I’ve ever had is at Brown Sugar in Boston. But I can’t claim to be an expert.

I agree, oddly enough, Brown Sugar in Boston of all places has great Thai. Lobster is cheap there, but the preparation is not any better than elsewhere. It's better in Maine and the Canadian Maritimes, anyway.

skibum,

Excellent definition! When lowball offers are actually being considered (not countered with ABOVE asking) we can say it's a (BM)* Did you hear that one? I couldn't believe how immature that was!

These sellers are all about "playing hardball" when it's their turn, but then we get into this playground mentality when it's not to their liking. Headset had a great post above where he describes sellers portraying us "vultures" after they HELOC the hell out of the home and expect us to pay for their consumption habits (that when you think about have little to do with the value of the home).

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald's and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, "you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best." I almost couldn't hold my laughter.

Governor Conan Says:

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

Well, as someone on the blog said earlier, the BA has certain things that make folks appreciate it more than others. For one, it has a Davies Symphony hall and a plethora of other theater/art outlets. No, it does not compare to the symphony in Vienna, but what does? Manhattan has more and better theater than the BA and the real estate is priced accordingly. But NY has miserable weather. The BA is very temperate. Folks in Chicago can enjoy great symphonies, shakespeare festivals, local summer fairs and lot's of water sports, but the weather has an almost 120 degree range. It can go from -20 to 100+ degrees in the span of 6 months. The locals even brag about the temperature range? Why are they bragging about freezing their toes off and then melting in the sun with 100% humidity?

I've worked in different parts of the US where you can't get good Chinese , Mexican, Thai or French within a 5 block radius. And some places don't even know what good Asian food is. A broad mix of different people bring all the "intangibles" together in the BA. Plus I like to snowboard. Can you drive 3 hours to go snowboarding from Dallas, Orlando, New Orleans or Alabama? Nope, you gotta fly. The BA has a whole lot of everything. You can live in a city, a suburb, a farm, in the mountains, in an exurb or in a hovel somewhere. Virutally every kind of lifestyle that sheople could want, you can find in or near the BA. Granted, I don't know much about the hunting scene in California, its probably sparse when compared to the midwest states. Many Americans would disagree with me, but I'd take good sushi over good hunting any day.

The BA is "different" because it does not have one distinct culture, it has many distinct cultures. But housing prices will go down ~ I hope.

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think.

About two years ago. Higher-end Asian food was not that impressive. Surprisingly, Las Vegas has pretty good Asian food.

There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It’ll be interesting to see how many the BA will get.

I bet ZERO.

http://www.andyhayler.com/files/3_Michelin_Star_Restaurants.htm

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

I heard that food in Shanghai can be quite expensive in high-end restaurants (US$100+/person).

I love NYC, but the thought that it may easily come under another terrorist attack makes me hesitate about living there. Plus the weather is quite horrible in winter.

Peter P,

fusion food in Shanghai cost easily $100/pp, but the taste is quite ordinary, at least it won't make the cut for you, I am sure. Local food is dirt cheap, but what the nouveau riches really care for are the "western food", particularly Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Haagan Daaz, because these three brands define the "upper class lifestyle". What a wonderful job the American marketers are doing.

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo. Shanghai is not even close, it ranks way below Hong Kong, Taipei and Singapore just in the non-Japan Asia region alone.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, “you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best.” I almost couldn’t hold my laughter.

But I thought they have good shark's fin and abalones. :)

OO said...
I love NYC, but the thought that it may easily come under another terrorist attack makes me hesitate about living there.

I wouldn't worry too much about it.

Most Western cities will have, or have had, terrorist attacks, and they're still there.
I lived in London during the 70s, 80s and 90s where the IRA would bomb something four or five times a year. Not to mention the July bombings of last year. People just got on with thier lives.

News Just In: Israeli troops near Baalbek in Northern Lebanon.
Take a moment to bend down and kiss your arse goodbye.

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo.

Chinese food tastes funny in Tokyo. IMO, Osaka area has better Japanese food than Tokyo. However, my friend told me that French cuisine in Tokyo is excellent.

I want to visit Taipei. I heard that Japanese food is very good yet inexpensive.

All seafood (abalone inclusive) in China are severely polluted if they are not imported. The best abalones in the world come from the peninsula area south of Adelaide, and Hokkaido.

As far as shark's fin is concerned, there are lots of fake stuff in China. You probably want to head for Hong Kong and Vancouver BC for the real thing :-)

I’m not saying that prejudice and bias don’t exist in the Bay Area, they do. Take a random city like Cupertino or Daly City or Fremont. You’ll see a good mix of races, religions, sexual orientation, beliefs, etc in most neighborhoods, and most people are pretty tolerant of other people, no matter who they voted for or what the color is of their skin.

Diversity does not make prejudice go away. Local friends do not like my pro-whaling stance.

All seafood (abalone inclusive) in China are severely polluted if they are not imported. The best abalones in the world come from the peninsula area south of Adelaide, and Hokkaido.

I think they are probably imported as dried goods. Abalones from California down to Mexico are not bad either. :)

Are there rare instances where you find you CAN get home in under an hour? Where there IS a great sunset? Like just enough to keep you going?

@DinOR,

Sure there are "those moments" when I'm reminded of California's glorious past, the California of my early youth. Back when you could drive from Pasadena to Santa Monica in under 30 minutes on a Saturday morning and get a parking spot right next to the pier. Back when you could easily find a clean, untrashed spot to spread your towel without being surrounded by the local chapter of MS-13. Back when you could even go for a swim without worrying about the bacteria count, the medical/industrial waste and raw sewage in the water.

Unfortunately, such days have become exceedingly rare, and are growing more rare with each passing year. The California of my youth now exists only in my memory. Don't get me wrong --I don't hate the entire state or even the people (ok, I DO hate the smug, arrogant yuppie-Boomer types). I just hate what it's becoming and what much of it already has become.

I know I am opening a can of worms, but let me give my perspective.

For a software techie from India (or other Asian countries) who is immigrating here in US, there isn't really a whole lot of choice. For example, I do not have friends/family anywhere else in the country. There are not that many hi-tech centers with plentiful jobs. And snow is no-no.

So, even if BA has its share of problems, that's all I got. I have been fortunate enough to travel to many countries and interact with many different peoples. And hence from my personal experiences, for BA is the easiest of the societies to get assimilated into. That's IMHO, YMMV.

I am not alone. Hence I put a lion's share of the reasons for RE bubble in BA on Indians and Asians. Again, IMHO, others will disagree.

I am going to change my handle to StuckInBA to reflect that (lack of) choice.

Guys,
Yes indeed the decision to move was/is extemely difficult for me. I know that for a long time I yammered on about how cool things are in Nashville-Austin-Anywhere- compared to the BA. But the simple fact is that where I will likely be is going to be very diffrent from the BA. There will probably be little to no Sushi. Not a huge selection of wine. Probably a sea of anglo-saxon christians. Wal-Marts will be the nearest thing to a hardware store. At the same time, they have their own charms that the BA lacks.

I will miss the BA a lot. But when I stopped and thought about it, it isn't the physical area that I will miss. Instead I'm almost irate at myself for having spent 8 years here. I believe that anyone can become attached to anywhere if they are there long enough. I recall NOT liking it here for almost a year. I'm attached here and feel like I invested too much of myself in it when all along I knew that I didn't want to waste decades of my life obtaining what most people everywhere else can procure very easily.

What I don't like is picking up my life and having to almost restart all over again. My priorities have changed from affordable living to finding a job and settling in somwhere. It's scary, but I'm sure I'll make it.

I'm also now a stranger to my own home state and the entire region in general. The region is now totally diffrent.So when I come back, I'll have to get familiar with it all over again. The south I knew as a kid doesn't exsist anymore. I've only been to Raliegh once yet heard some good things from friends that already made the move there. I have heard that Atlanta is taking off. Again- I wouldn't know.

But there is some aspect that is sort of exciting about making this change. As Americans, we have the unique ability to change our surroundings if they don't work for us anymore. I view California as a broken state and outdated laws that will haunt it for generations, if not eternallly if this chain of booms and busts continue. I want no part of that. I look forward to the coming months and hopefully by this time next year, I will happily be able to tell you all what my experiences are like so that perhaps if sme of you too have had these thoughts, you can see how someone like me fared.

Skibum said

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think. Chinese food in Flushing, Korean near Madison Sq Gdn, and all kinds of other stuff.

Well, I like Sun Hong Kong on the border of Chinatown and Northbeach, Brother's KBQ on Geary and Saigon Chinese sea food (too bad its currently under construction from a fire) in Richmond right by I80. Also Go Go Cafe in the Sunset is good. Those are some pretty cheap asian food places that kick a$$. I was in NY a couple of years ago ~ not that two years ago is current ~ and I just didn't find the Asian cuisine all that great. It could be that I was taken around by an Italian local, not an Asian local. French, Italian and all the Euro flavors were far superior in NY. I haven't ever had roast duck with butter sauce as good as this place in Manhattan. I forgot the name though.

I’ve worked in different parts of the US where you can’t get good Chinese , Mexican, Thai or French within a 5 block radius. And some places don’t even know what good Asian food is. A broad mix of different people bring all the “intangibles” together in the BA. Plus I like to snowboard. Can you drive 3 hours to go snowboarding from Dallas, Orlando, New Orleans or Alabama? Nope, you gotta fly. The BA has a whole lot of everything.

Again, I think the "good international food" benefit is over-hyped and as better cuisine is spreading to other regions, will become even less of a factor in the years to come. 20 years ago you probably couldn't even get decent asian food in most Southern cities --no longer true today.

As far as snowboarding goes, it sounds great as a concept, but how many people actually do this on a regular basis? Can't speak about the BA, but I can tell you that any ski/snowborad areas that are within a 3 hour drive from L.A. are insanely overcrowded during ski season. Once you start having to drive 5+ hours to avoid the crowds, why not just get a cheapo ticket and fly?

@MA,

Understood, yes a lot of people do complain about the BA or California not having "real" seasons. The change of color can be very nice and the BA is basically the same shade all year round. I just can't deal with the temp range of certain areas.

There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It’ll be interesting to see how many the BA will get.

I bet ZERO.

Really? I don't see how Per Se got 3 stars and French Laundry will not.

Really? I don’t see how Per Se got 3 stars and French Laundry will not.

This is why I do not care about Michelin stars. Restaurant ratings are overrated.

SHTF,

I can almost feel the pain coming from your words... moving is tough. But I think you'll do just fine. If you don't like it out there, you can come back and if you like it, that just means you made the right decision. More power to you!

Back OT...

Buyer's market: When buyers start demanding 1000-word essays/biographies from prospective sellers accompanied by 8x10 family photos before we'll even consider listening to their offering price. When the sale is contingent upon the sellers continuing to feed the squirrels after I buy the place. I also like (DinOR's?) idea of sellers having to personally perform lawn maintenance for 1-2 years after the sale.

Diversity has been redefined as “No White People” or “Majority XXXX Ethnic group”. Maybe it should be called “California Diversity” like “California King”.

:lol: "California diversity" to complement "California affordability" ($million condos financed with 110% LTV stated-income NAAVLP).

Sigh ...... people feel defensive when Shanghai is overtaking Hongkong, Taipei and Singapore to become the premiere city in East Asia.

Shanghai has a pretty long (cultural and prosperous) history when compared with the other three.

The city is changing rapidly. Not necessarily to my taste. But over the long run, it'll settle down.

A lot of pompous people don't like Shanghai because they weren't treated like a king or queen. I notice that in Beijing's hotel the staff were very servile. No doubt, the descendants of the Chinese serving in the Manchurian capital must be the servile kind. In Shanghai, the hotel (and restaurant) staff were cordial and polite and very helpful. But not servile.