patrick.net

A buyer's market means a young professional couple like me and my wife were 12 years ago could easily afford an average home in the blue ribbon neighborhoods of the Bay Area (3x household income) on a traditional 20% down, 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

A buyer's market means there were so few buyers as compared to the sellers that the sellers bent over backwards to make the sale happen, we got half a house full of furniture thrown in for free.

A buyer's market means the shell or whatever structure they erected on top of a lot is thrown in for free and seller will pay for the eradication. The shell will become a negative cost to the buyer.

I bought in the last buyer's market, and I will know when it is buyer's market again. We are far from it, but I can wait for 2009 or 2010.

For “high culture,” NYC edges the BA, in my opinion. For low culture, well, that’s what Graceland is for.

Graceland is pretty damned high culture in my book! IMO, NYC is a clearcut favorite over the BA for culture. NYC is among the world cities for art, music, dance, trendsetting. BA has maybe trendsetting for pop-culture, but that's about it.

APAC cuisines taste funny in NYC, although it has much better Italian and Continental food.

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think. Chinese food in Flushing, Korean near Madison Sq Gdn, and all kinds of other stuff. Sushi's a wash between the two. Italian, pizza, deli food, bagels are hands down better in the east, but BA has better Mexican, California cuisine (duh!), and Southeast Asian. There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It'll be interesting to see how many the BA will get. French Laundry is a shoe-in, but the others, even Gary Danko, I'm not so sure about.

The BEST Thai I’ve ever had is at Brown Sugar in Boston. But I can’t claim to be an expert.

I agree, oddly enough, Brown Sugar in Boston of all places has great Thai. Lobster is cheap there, but the preparation is not any better than elsewhere. It's better in Maine and the Canadian Maritimes, anyway.

skibum,

Excellent definition! When lowball offers are actually being considered (not countered with ABOVE asking) we can say it's a (BM)* Did you hear that one? I couldn't believe how immature that was!

These sellers are all about "playing hardball" when it's their turn, but then we get into this playground mentality when it's not to their liking. Headset had a great post above where he describes sellers portraying us "vultures" after they HELOC the hell out of the home and expect us to pay for their consumption habits (that when you think about have little to do with the value of the home).

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald's and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, "you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best." I almost couldn't hold my laughter.

Governor Conan Says:

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

Well, as someone on the blog said earlier, the BA has certain things that make folks appreciate it more than others. For one, it has a Davies Symphony hall and a plethora of other theater/art outlets. No, it does not compare to the symphony in Vienna, but what does? Manhattan has more and better theater than the BA and the real estate is priced accordingly. But NY has miserable weather. The BA is very temperate. Folks in Chicago can enjoy great symphonies, shakespeare festivals, local summer fairs and lot's of water sports, but the weather has an almost 120 degree range. It can go from -20 to 100+ degrees in the span of 6 months. The locals even brag about the temperature range? Why are they bragging about freezing their toes off and then melting in the sun with 100% humidity?

I've worked in different parts of the US where you can't get good Chinese , Mexican, Thai or French within a 5 block radius. And some places don't even know what good Asian food is. A broad mix of different people bring all the "intangibles" together in the BA. Plus I like to snowboard. Can you drive 3 hours to go snowboarding from Dallas, Orlando, New Orleans or Alabama? Nope, you gotta fly. The BA has a whole lot of everything. You can live in a city, a suburb, a farm, in the mountains, in an exurb or in a hovel somewhere. Virutally every kind of lifestyle that sheople could want, you can find in or near the BA. Granted, I don't know much about the hunting scene in California, its probably sparse when compared to the midwest states. Many Americans would disagree with me, but I'd take good sushi over good hunting any day.

The BA is "different" because it does not have one distinct culture, it has many distinct cultures. But housing prices will go down ~ I hope.

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think.

About two years ago. Higher-end Asian food was not that impressive. Surprisingly, Las Vegas has pretty good Asian food.

There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It’ll be interesting to see how many the BA will get.

I bet ZERO.

http://www.andyhayler.com/files/3_Michelin_Star_Restaurants.htm

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

I heard that food in Shanghai can be quite expensive in high-end restaurants (US$100+/person).

I love NYC, but the thought that it may easily come under another terrorist attack makes me hesitate about living there. Plus the weather is quite horrible in winter.

Peter P,

fusion food in Shanghai cost easily $100/pp, but the taste is quite ordinary, at least it won't make the cut for you, I am sure. Local food is dirt cheap, but what the nouveau riches really care for are the "western food", particularly Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Haagan Daaz, because these three brands define the "upper class lifestyle". What a wonderful job the American marketers are doing.

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo. Shanghai is not even close, it ranks way below Hong Kong, Taipei and Singapore just in the non-Japan Asia region alone.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, “you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best.” I almost couldn’t hold my laughter.

But I thought they have good shark's fin and abalones. :)

OO said...
I love NYC, but the thought that it may easily come under another terrorist attack makes me hesitate about living there.

I wouldn't worry too much about it.

Most Western cities will have, or have had, terrorist attacks, and they're still there.
I lived in London during the 70s, 80s and 90s where the IRA would bomb something four or five times a year. Not to mention the July bombings of last year. People just got on with thier lives.

News Just In: Israeli troops near Baalbek in Northern Lebanon.
Take a moment to bend down and kiss your arse goodbye.

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo.

Chinese food tastes funny in Tokyo. IMO, Osaka area has better Japanese food than Tokyo. However, my friend told me that French cuisine in Tokyo is excellent.

I want to visit Taipei. I heard that Japanese food is very good yet inexpensive.

All seafood (abalone inclusive) in China are severely polluted if they are not imported. The best abalones in the world come from the peninsula area south of Adelaide, and Hokkaido.

As far as shark's fin is concerned, there are lots of fake stuff in China. You probably want to head for Hong Kong and Vancouver BC for the real thing :-)

I’m not saying that prejudice and bias don’t exist in the Bay Area, they do. Take a random city like Cupertino or Daly City or Fremont. You’ll see a good mix of races, religions, sexual orientation, beliefs, etc in most neighborhoods, and most people are pretty tolerant of other people, no matter who they voted for or what the color is of their skin.

Diversity does not make prejudice go away. Local friends do not like my pro-whaling stance.

All seafood (abalone inclusive) in China are severely polluted if they are not imported. The best abalones in the world come from the peninsula area south of Adelaide, and Hokkaido.

I think they are probably imported as dried goods. Abalones from California down to Mexico are not bad either. :)

Are there rare instances where you find you CAN get home in under an hour? Where there IS a great sunset? Like just enough to keep you going?

@DinOR,

Sure there are "those moments" when I'm reminded of California's glorious past, the California of my early youth. Back when you could drive from Pasadena to Santa Monica in under 30 minutes on a Saturday morning and get a parking spot right next to the pier. Back when you could easily find a clean, untrashed spot to spread your towel without being surrounded by the local chapter of MS-13. Back when you could even go for a swim without worrying about the bacteria count, the medical/industrial waste and raw sewage in the water.

Unfortunately, such days have become exceedingly rare, and are growing more rare with each passing year. The California of my youth now exists only in my memory. Don't get me wrong --I don't hate the entire state or even the people (ok, I DO hate the smug, arrogant yuppie-Boomer types). I just hate what it's becoming and what much of it already has become.

I know I am opening a can of worms, but let me give my perspective.

For a software techie from India (or other Asian countries) who is immigrating here in US, there isn't really a whole lot of choice. For example, I do not have friends/family anywhere else in the country. There are not that many hi-tech centers with plentiful jobs. And snow is no-no.

So, even if BA has its share of problems, that's all I got. I have been fortunate enough to travel to many countries and interact with many different peoples. And hence from my personal experiences, for BA is the easiest of the societies to get assimilated into. That's IMHO, YMMV.

I am not alone. Hence I put a lion's share of the reasons for RE bubble in BA on Indians and Asians. Again, IMHO, others will disagree.

I am going to change my handle to StuckInBA to reflect that (lack of) choice.

Guys,
Yes indeed the decision to move was/is extemely difficult for me. I know that for a long time I yammered on about how cool things are in Nashville-Austin-Anywhere- compared to the BA. But the simple fact is that where I will likely be is going to be very diffrent from the BA. There will probably be little to no Sushi. Not a huge selection of wine. Probably a sea of anglo-saxon christians. Wal-Marts will be the nearest thing to a hardware store. At the same time, they have their own charms that the BA lacks.

I will miss the BA a lot. But when I stopped and thought about it, it isn't the physical area that I will miss. Instead I'm almost irate at myself for having spent 8 years here. I believe that anyone can become attached to anywhere if they are there long enough. I recall NOT liking it here for almost a year. I'm attached here and feel like I invested too much of myself in it when all along I knew that I didn't want to waste decades of my life obtaining what most people everywhere else can procure very easily.

What I don't like is picking up my life and having to almost restart all over again. My priorities have changed from affordable living to finding a job and settling in somwhere. It's scary, but I'm sure I'll make it.

I'm also now a stranger to my own home state and the entire region in general. The region is now totally diffrent.So when I come back, I'll have to get familiar with it all over again. The south I knew as a kid doesn't exsist anymore. I've only been to Raliegh once yet heard some good things from friends that already made the move there. I have heard that Atlanta is taking off. Again- I wouldn't know.

But there is some aspect that is sort of exciting about making this change. As Americans, we have the unique ability to change our surroundings if they don't work for us anymore. I view California as a broken state and outdated laws that will haunt it for generations, if not eternallly if this chain of booms and busts continue. I want no part of that. I look forward to the coming months and hopefully by this time next year, I will happily be able to tell you all what my experiences are like so that perhaps if sme of you too have had these thoughts, you can see how someone like me fared.

Skibum said

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think. Chinese food in Flushing, Korean near Madison Sq Gdn, and all kinds of other stuff.

Well, I like Sun Hong Kong on the border of Chinatown and Northbeach, Brother's KBQ on Geary and Saigon Chinese sea food (too bad its currently under construction from a fire) in Richmond right by I80. Also Go Go Cafe in the Sunset is good. Those are some pretty cheap asian food places that kick a$$. I was in NY a couple of years ago ~ not that two years ago is current ~ and I just didn't find the Asian cuisine all that great. It could be that I was taken around by an Italian local, not an Asian local. French, Italian and all the Euro flavors were far superior in NY. I haven't ever had roast duck with butter sauce as good as this place in Manhattan. I forgot the name though.

I’ve worked in different parts of the US where you can’t get good Chinese , Mexican, Thai or French within a 5 block radius. And some places don’t even know what good Asian food is. A broad mix of different people bring all the “intangibles” together in the BA. Plus I like to snowboard. Can you drive 3 hours to go snowboarding from Dallas, Orlando, New Orleans or Alabama? Nope, you gotta fly. The BA has a whole lot of everything.

Again, I think the "good international food" benefit is over-hyped and as better cuisine is spreading to other regions, will become even less of a factor in the years to come. 20 years ago you probably couldn't even get decent asian food in most Southern cities --no longer true today.

As far as snowboarding goes, it sounds great as a concept, but how many people actually do this on a regular basis? Can't speak about the BA, but I can tell you that any ski/snowborad areas that are within a 3 hour drive from L.A. are insanely overcrowded during ski season. Once you start having to drive 5+ hours to avoid the crowds, why not just get a cheapo ticket and fly?

@MA,

Understood, yes a lot of people do complain about the BA or California not having "real" seasons. The change of color can be very nice and the BA is basically the same shade all year round. I just can't deal with the temp range of certain areas.

There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It’ll be interesting to see how many the BA will get.

I bet ZERO.

Really? I don't see how Per Se got 3 stars and French Laundry will not.

Really? I don’t see how Per Se got 3 stars and French Laundry will not.

This is why I do not care about Michelin stars. Restaurant ratings are overrated.

SHTF,

I can almost feel the pain coming from your words... moving is tough. But I think you'll do just fine. If you don't like it out there, you can come back and if you like it, that just means you made the right decision. More power to you!

Back OT...

Buyer's market: When buyers start demanding 1000-word essays/biographies from prospective sellers accompanied by 8x10 family photos before we'll even consider listening to their offering price. When the sale is contingent upon the sellers continuing to feed the squirrels after I buy the place. I also like (DinOR's?) idea of sellers having to personally perform lawn maintenance for 1-2 years after the sale.

Diversity has been redefined as “No White People” or “Majority XXXX Ethnic group”. Maybe it should be called “California Diversity” like “California King”.

:lol: "California diversity" to complement "California affordability" ($million condos financed with 110% LTV stated-income NAAVLP).

Sigh ...... people feel defensive when Shanghai is overtaking Hongkong, Taipei and Singapore to become the premiere city in East Asia.

Shanghai has a pretty long (cultural and prosperous) history when compared with the other three.

The city is changing rapidly. Not necessarily to my taste. But over the long run, it'll settle down.

A lot of pompous people don't like Shanghai because they weren't treated like a king or queen. I notice that in Beijing's hotel the staff were very servile. No doubt, the descendants of the Chinese serving in the Manchurian capital must be the servile kind. In Shanghai, the hotel (and restaurant) staff were cordial and polite and very helpful. But not servile.

Yeah, that's the thing I noticed the most after moving back to LA from London: people talk about 'diversity' in Los Angeles, but the only people I ever saw in West LA who were a different colour from me were mowing lawns or doing laundry.

From what I can gather there are lots of ethnically diverse areas, but you don't really get any intermingling of people.

When we were first looking for places to live, I'd mention places and people would say stuff like 'oh, you don't want to live there, nobody speaks english...
to which I'd think 'and?...'

Not blowng the trumpet for London (well, not much ;-) ) but when they say ethnic diversity, they mean ethnic diversity in that area, not a community of X living next to a community of Y next to a community of Z etc...

Maybe its an Angelino thing - I've noticed in the BA, especially San Francisco, that people from different countries/backgrounds live in a more 'diverse' way- ie on the same street as each other - than here.

Just to post something on topic

I think it will be a buyers market when a 3/2 can be bought on a median income with an income to debt ratio of

Scott J. and randomuser,

The weather and "diversity" are the usual stock answers (often given by realtors) for why the BA is so special. This summer and last winter put the weather thing into perspective - not so great, eh? The Mediterranian climate can be found in a lot of places, anyway, not just here: the Mediterranian (of course!), South Africa, Australia, and Chile are supposed to all have similar climates - coincides with good winemaking regions, too.

RE: "diversity," I agree with burbed "no white people" does not equal diversity. Cities in the BA, and pretty much most everywhere I've seen still remain very segregated. And yes, the couple of food places you mention are good (especially Brothers), but that doesn't justify housing prices here!

As far as snowboarding goes, it sounds great as a concept, but how many people actually do this on a regular basis? Can’t speak about the BA, but I can tell you that any ski/snowborad areas that are within a 3 hour drive from L.A. are insanely overcrowded during ski season. Once you start having to drive 5+ hours to avoid the crowds, why not just get a cheapo ticket and fly?

That would be me, and I know many people who go up to Tahoe more or less every weekend in the winter. I try my best to do that as time permits. That being said, winter sports are much more accessible in many other cities: Seattle-Cascades, Vancouver-Whistler, Denver-Loveland, Winter Park, or Summit Cty, Portland-Mt Hood, just to name a few. Don't even bring up East Coast skiing - it sucks big time. The skiing close to LA sucks as well - Mammoth is the only place worth going down there, and that's a hike.

OO said :

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, “you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best.” I almost couldn’t hold my laughter.

Oh ... for a moment I thought you were talking about Banglore / Mumbai (Bombay). ;-)

I will know when it's a buyer market when this blog turns into something like craigslist housing where many people post one line messages just to vent. And all of the names we see here now will be gone because they are busy shopping for houses rather than blogging.

I like Scott's viewpoint. But since there's so much mobility in BA and there isn't a strong tradition in BA to absorb and indoctrinate the new comers, we are left with fads in BA.

The situation in LA might be very different.

Peter P says:
Diversity does not make prejudice go away. Local friends do not like my pro-whaling stance.

Good one :)

Good one

I see that you are also pro-whaling? :)

SP,

Your "original" definitions are spot on! We need to remind ourselves of the basics more often.

OO: I'm picturing the "Taco Bell is fancy?!" scene from Demolition Man, so I must ask, are the KFCs in Shanghai like what I'd expect in the US, or are they some fancy $100/plate mutation?

On diversity: If I head back to the Central Valley, I see nothing but white people. I know that's really not the case, because there is some insane number of different languages spoken in the area (Assyrian, Hmong, Arabic, Farsi, Russian, etc.) and I've encountered some of the communities outside of day-to-day life. But, If I walk around, I see nothing but white. If I go back East or South, I see a mix of black and white. It's only in the BA that I can step outside and have a high probability of seeing something other than solid white/black.

'Course, I don't think of CA as wonderful, just the northern part of the BA. LA would be much improved by a meteor strike, and the rest of the interior seems to be a fairly homogeneous and insular people.

Governor Conon,

The only place that I could land a woman any time was Shanghai. If you speak English fluently, you can literally sleep with any Shanghainese woman, you need to find a way to get away from them. If you are white, you are golden, there are endless choices of women there. Although many are attempting to sleep for passports, most are just happy enough to brag to their friends that they bagged a white guy. Being seen in public engaging in PDA with a white guy is considered a source of pride for local women.

This is nothing special about Shanghai, most colonies or ex-colonies behave the same way. In the earlier days of Hong Kong, women prefer British to Chinese, same thing for Singapore. Just that Shanghai is just beginning to relive its colonial days after China opened up, so it is still at the bottom of the curve climbing up to become a city with an identity. Currently, it has none.

Peter,

I'm pro hunting. Don't know about whaling thing. Will support if whaling doesn't endanger the species. Never had whale meat. Does it taste good?

Never had whale meat. Does it taste good?

It tastes horrible. I mean horrible.

But the if whaling is to be banned, finning of sharks will be next. Then wild sturgeons will be protected. Soon enough, vegetarianism will be forced upon us. It must stop.

I may support an international tax on whaling if it can slow down the depletion of whales.