patrick.net

They don’t make that many 4BR units in complexes anyway.

If I were you I would try to rent two adjacent 2/2 units.

Randy, perhaps you may want to buy before price is optimal? You can surely afford a suitable house conservatively.

Cool… is that the one with slide-out keyboard?

nah, need to accessorise -- that might be the KJam, which is thicker... they packed in 4 band GSM, GPRS, Edge, 802.11b/g, Bluetooth and IR, tho... i'll see how it goes, just wanted 1 comms device instead of juggling 2... straight to the accessories ordering website...

Randy,

have you considered renting TWO close-by condos instead of ONE house? One one-bedder for your mom plus a 2-bedder for your own family. The combined rent probably wouldn't make a big difference, and you can get some privacy from mom too.

SFHs are in much shorter supply than condos, so I'd expect condo rent to stay flat. Condo is a good compromise between SFH and apartment, and seriously apartment would suck for a family.

Dunno about the condo supply up in Marin, but in South Bay you can get plenty of new condo supply, particularly investor stock that is just newly completed. If I were in your situation, I probably would just call the LL bluff, since your worst case scenario is getting kicked out, so why not shoot for anything above that?

Lets get the terms correct, we do all speak English, right?

Ok, own, means you hold the title, "I own my car, here is my title"

To buy means you own.

To "buy" a house means you have a loan from someone which means you do not own fuck all.

No one that posts here is a baller, no one is wealthy, (if unsure of what wealth means google "chris rock, wealth").

200K means fuck all, the issue with all this housing bullshit is that it has produced an environment that is filled with maggot asshats that are pushy, rude and just plain assholes because they "feel" rich because they have a Hummer or a 60" TV.

Fuck off.

Randy, have you considered a scorched earth policy where by you take a fucking chain-saw to the interior walls of the house, pour concrete down all drains or toilets and pour female dog piss on all lawns.

Surely it's worth the 2 or 3k deposit that you will have to fight to get back anyhow.

Fuck them. Remember the first part of anal sex involves bending over.

Shit, I'm sorry, RENTS ARE GOING UP, BUY NOW.

Fuck that, who's up for a blog party?

Fuck it, I'm done.

have you considered a scorched earth policy

Actually yes. Maybe not including chainsaws and pick axes. But similarly to LiLLL our LL has been seriously cheating on his taxes vis-a-vis this property for many years.

If pushed too far, I'll "exercise that option".

We looked into 2BR/2BR in a few apartment complexes. Really nothing fits that bill in S. Marin. We're trying to stay south of the wall of traffic so our options are very limited in the apt complex category. I haven't looked too seriously at creative condo solutions. Perhaps even 2 condos in the same little complex, even if not adjacent, would be fine. Mom could survive across the way. I am skeptical that renting 2 condos will be cheaper than 1 SFH, however; unless maybe they're both rented from the same owner. Otherwise we're talking 2 deposits, etc. etc.

As to buying before it's "optimal": I continue to argue that buying a home is NOT a purely quantitative financial engineering exercise. It's not like the class you took in micro econ 101 where the two little lines intersect at the optimal price.

Rather your own personal family's "optimal" solution is based largely upon what kind of utility you will get out of owning a home. All the financial calculations are really just the constraining factors. So long as you can afford to buy within reason, then whether you should buy is entirely based upon whether you think your life will be better off with the house than without it, being careful to consider ALL factors, including financial ones.

I suspect many bubblesitters in situations similar to mine will find their own "optimality" well before (in terms of time) the absolute bottom of the market. For me at least, at a certain point the financial factors will have become "cheap enough" so that each additional day of waiting is more painful than the value of each additional dollar of price decrease. No one likes to leave money on the table, but sometimes trying to get that last dollar off the table is much more trouble than its worth.

Although for some, they have jumped in too early - we have some friends that got kicked out of two rental properties, one after the other in teh space of six months where the LL decided to sell the houses. So they went off and bought a house last year - I did mention "the housing market is in a bubble at the minute......"

They just had to buy, buy, buy.........I wonder how their market is holding up - Pleasanton (spelling may be wrong)

Good points Randy H

Speaking only for myself and the husband, it is definately a question when we can afford it, not when its at rock-bottom.

Fortunately, we're locked into a rental lease until Jan 2007, so despite the Other Half getting itchy feet, there's nothing to be done until other than just tracking houses we like on the Interweb.

Yeah, I'd like to buy at rock-bottom, but the husband isn't as keen on this rental as I am - too long a commute, too hot in summer (San Fernando Valley). So its a question of compromise - that's marriage for you.

Still, by 'afford' I mean being able to get a traditional 15 or 30 yr FM, with lots of downpayment and a loan no more than 1/3 of his salary (mine's too fluctuating to use) inclusinve of all the other guff.

And, as we're looking at mainly PRIME areas (where is he when you need him?), it may take a bit longer to buy than an 800sq ft POS under the LAX flightpath in El Segundo....

Although, of course, then we'd be robbed of the opportunity to sing "I left my wallet in El Segundo" to each other every day ;-)

The situation here in the NYC and surrounding areas is much worse than most perceive. A friend in the mortgage servicing department of a large bank tells me that given the current number of households with negative equity, we are in for much more foreclosures than already seen. He said foreclosure notices sent by his department doubled in the last month.

My sister-in-law who is a realtor in NJ also tells me that the existing inventory of homes on the market is also greatly under-stated and she has seen average price decreases of 10% during the past 3 months. She tells me that many people on the market right now are panicked flippers who are underwater and trying to cut their losses. She said others who are still above water are belligerent and have their properties on the market at unrealistic prices. They don’t care to sell as much as make a statement by asking for exorbitant amounts, she says. Yet some others are already underwater and either don’t realize it or are in denial.

Despite this, she tells me that sales have picked up. People are attracted by the discounts coupled with the recent decrease in mortgage rates. But she believes the downward trend in prices in just beginning and will accelerate. She is expecting reductions of 30-40% over the next several years if current fundamentals persist.

MA,

The reason that Bill (the backstabber) Gross is tap dancing around the "bubble question" is that he owns a TON of MBS! So let me ask you this Bill, back when the stock market was in it's DARKEST HOUR you said that the DOW would be more fairly valued at 5K and the NASDAQ at God knows where! Thanks a lot Bill! 5 years ago barely anybody knew who this guy was. Now he's some kind of Superstar for what? Buying bonds and "repackaging" them? Oh give me a break.

He was so full of himself and his new found celebrity he was actually steering investors AWAY from a grossly oversold equity market to do what? Buy even MORE bonds? What a dick head.

WHAT A BUNCH OF LOSERS!! Oh yeah... lots of rich people I know rent :) :). I hear Bill Gates is looking for a 5 bedroom 5 bath to rent... HA HA!

Look... My parents bought their house in Santa Clara for $150K in 1986 and at the time, they thought they were getting ripped off! Every person that ever bought a house think that they are getting ripped off. Our generation is no different. Oh yeah... Silicon Valley is going to crash and the housing price will decrease by 50%... yeah right... and I have a bridge in San Francisco I like to sell you. If housing prices in BA decreases by 50%, you got other problems, least of which is buying a house.
Hell, there is a condo in San Jose that just sold for $635K and the similar unit in the same complex sold few months back for $535K. If you dont' believe me, look up Ryland Mews in downtown. So for every story you have of price reduction and unsold houses, there are 2 or 3 stories like these where appreciation goes to 20 to 30 % in a month or so. I only have one thing to say to you guys... SUPPLY AND DEMAND! As my Econ professor told us last quarter, BUYING A HOUSE IS AN EMOTIOINAL DECISION AS WELL AS FINANCIAL. It is very very very different. You can't look at statistics and determine what a given house will go for. And when it comes to Coastal cities... FORGET ABOUT IT! There's always some billionaire who's willing to pay above market to live near the ocean irregardless of economic conditions.

Somebody here said that this housing crash website has been around since 2003. Oh yeah, who's the genius that started this in 2003. Whoever took this website's advice in 2003 has to have a gun pointing to his head right now :).

I'm still a student so I don't have a house yet, but that is my dream. BTW, if you guys think that you "won", JUST LOOK AT THE MEDIAN PRICES. IT'S STILL GOING UP! Not as fast, but IT'S STILL GOING UP! You guys are idiots for thinking that American people will look at statistics and decide not to buy even if they can afford one. Good luck betting against American dream... It's a losing battle. As soon as I can afford one, I'm jumping on it. And 99% of the people FEEL THE SAME WAY. THAT IS THEIR DREAM. You think housing price will crash because bunch of idiots like you are screaming that it isn't fair that you guys are too poor to afford a house in the BA? HA HA HA :).

btw, if you think housing prices in BA is crazy, you should come down to Goleta/Santa Barbara. It makes Cupertino look like a bargain... And yeah, few years back, everybody was telling me that Goleta was overpriced as well. And they're still saying it even after it jumped almost 50%.

LILLL,

What's the old saying about holding your friends close (and your enemies closer)?

I keep pretty close tabs on my LL too! I never miss an opportunity to let him know that I'm SERIOUSLY "thinking" about making him another offer? I know that all sounds conflicted, because it is. I'm sending all kinds of mixed messages to this guy. As long as he doesn't know what to think I have the upper hand. He shot his mouth off about how DEEP his pockets are and how he can afford to rent out property at a negative cash flow (which i egged him into saying) so now if he puts up for sale he's like a liar X 3!

How did I egg him into sticking his foot squarely in his orifice?

"Mr. Landlord, I've been around IB much of my adulthood. I only work with a select group of sophisticated clients.........."

Well there's NFW ANY nickel millionaire is gonna let THAT slide!

Open WIDE!

Doesn't brian remind you of lulu or juju or whatever? Thank you I just escaped from San Hosebag and I am not interested.

Brian,

Due in large part to the fact that our good friend Sir Surfer X is out tangling with some "ril" bitchin' waves can I suggest in his absence that you now kindly go back to f@cking your llama?

This the b u b b l e that never ends!

Yes it goes on and on MY friends!

Some people s t a r t e d blowing it but

"IT" was long ago

and they'll c o n t i n u e blowing it forever

JUST BECAUSE this is the bubble that never ends

yes it goes on and on MY friends

I'll be generous and say brian is really naive and actually still believes everything he said. He just found about this housing bubble that threatens to shink his inheritance and decided to write up a long post (that he cut and pasted to five or six different housing bubble sites) about why he thinks housing prices are going to be totally unaffordable.

I feel sorry for these kids. They got brainwashed into believing that you should tie yourself into a place costing 8-10X your annual salary. I hope they don't have kids yet because it's going to be a rocky ride ahead for them.

After checking *brian's* email address, I think he is just an outright troll who knows what he's doing.

(in response to his earlier question in a different alias) People who lost money in CA real estate? Wow, you just totally ignored SoCal around 1990.

astrid,

Yeah, it did seem kind of "generic". That's why he only got the ONE Llama rating not Sir Surfer's "bonus plan".

"brian"

You have been added to our permanent Troll list. Kindly go fuck yourself and find some other more appropriate forum to spew your worthless crap, such as Craigslist or SDCIA.

"Bri" simply did not come across with enough "bile" to warrant the words;

Mom

corn (and)

"ample"

to be used in the same sentence. But hey! Maybe he can come back and try his luck after X puts his board up?

I thought number one rule (and two and three) is location, location and location

If we buy later, after the properties decrease in value, we will pay less in property tax, won't we?

That new_troll/brian guy really has an axe to grind doesn't he? Probably one of the panicked flippers my sis was telling me about. Hey Brian, let's cut to the chase... I'll buy you out today at 60% of what you paid (but only if the real estate taxes are still less than my rent:-). I heard NJ's real estate taxes are on the raise again. Poor sucker, he's being squeezed on all sides.

Why is it, all of sudden these a$$clowns are coming out of the woodwork?

Hey new_troll

Check out Craigslist - its probably more your cup of tea.

But that sort of thinking assumes that people should continue to own every home they ever bought into. Realistically, people will sell homes as their housing needs change through life and few people are ready to be landlords (though FBs would certainly like to think otherwise, since that would tie up more housing stock and push up the overall cost of owning). So the idea of holding a house for 20 or 30 years is a red herring, few people can do it with today's CA prices.

It'll also take many years for the 1-1.5% property taxes to catch up with a 20%+ drop, and the interest from the profits should amply cover the difference.

Silicon Valley is back - thanks to the person who pointed out the WSJ article above!

"People keep saying Silicon Valley is dead, and it's never true," says Sean Randolph, president of the Bay Area Economic Forum, a San Francisco-based group that studies the region's economy. "There's an immense infrastructure for research and development here," he says, that helps push Silicon Valley continually up the skills curve.

One of its big draws is money. Average annual pay for the region's tech workers rose to $70,000 last year from around $64,000 in 2003, according to Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a nonprofit business group. Executive positions typically command six-figure packages. While stock options have come under fire amid cases of improper dating of grants, many tech companies, especially start-ups, are still doling them out heavily. That offers employees the chance to cash in big if their company goes public and its stock price rises.

But in February 2005, fed up with Minnesota winters, Mr. Boos called two recruiters. He told them he wanted a job at a California start-up that was heading toward an initial public offering, which would offer him a chance to get rich. Mr. Boos quickly landed an interview with Good Technology, a fast-growing company that competes with BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Ltd.

Mr. Boos paid nearly $1.4 million for a Silicon Valley home, according to public records, three times what he got for his Minnesota home last year. His wife, Rhonda, who had worked for Sun Microsystems in Minnesota for 17 years, transferred to Sun's Silicon Valley headquarters from Minneapolis and received a 15% increase in total compensation.

Mrs. Odell, a stay-at-home mom, says she worried about moving the family and paying for housing. "It's a big risk," she says. "I was in denial. For a few weeks, I didn't think Jamie would really do this." In February, she and Mr. Odell flew to Silicon Valley and realized they would have to pay more than $1 million for what they considered a passable house. "It's scary that you can pay so much and get so little," says Mrs. Odell, who is also 40.

Argh. If only all my stock options weren't underwater :(

In the tristate area of NYC, real estate taxes are becoming unbearable for many homeowners. In NJ, where the local government had to shutdown for a couple of days due to budget problems, the outlook for future taxes hikes is extremely worrisome for homeowners.

It's not just the prices in BA, it's also the quality of housing stock. Anything below $1 M will be some combination of tiny, far out, tiny lot, next to busy street, bad neighborhood, or in need of major repairs. These houses would be considered working class housing or worse just about anywhere else in the country.

UCSB where the current troll resides has a fair use policy that specifically indicates one cannot engage in this type of behavior.

here is the troll's IP's 128.111.97.162

and here is where the real assfucking begins. please do not delete any of his vile diatribe as i am forwarding it to the admin at ucsb.

OrgName: University of California, Santa Barbara
OrgID: UCSB
Address: Office of Information Technology
Address: North Hall 2124
City: Santa Barbara
StateProv: CA
PostalCode: 93106-3201
Country: US

NetRange: 128.111.0.0 - 128.111.255.255
CIDR: 128.111.0.0/16
NetName: UCSB
NetHandle: NET-128-111-0-0-1
Parent: NET-128-0-0-0-0
NetType: Direct Assignment
NameServer: NS1.UCSB.EDU
NameServer: NS2.UCSB.EDU
NameServer: KNOT.BROWN.EDU
Comment:
RegDate: 1986-02-18
Updated: 2003-10-03

RTechHandle: KS1217-ARIN
RTechName: Schmidt, Kevin
RTechPhone: +1-805-893-7779
RTechEmail: kps@ucsb.edu

OrgTechHandle: KS1217-ARIN
OrgTechName: Schmidt, Kevin
OrgTechPhone: +1-805-893-7779

I think Ol Kevin Schmidt would love to hear what the troll has been writing. The UC does not take kindly to this type of crap.

By by troll, time to go watch girls gone wild for the 78th time while jacking off with your frat bros.

another_troll,

If I had bought, the bank would have owned the property, they only would give us interest only loan - so we get to rent from the bank, pay property taxes and for the upkeep of the house adn be in a much worse school district and farther away from work. If property values even went down 10%, we would have lost our deposit. I AM NOT THAT STUPID.

Different Sean Says:

> hee hee, i’m posting from my new imate pda phone…
> now I can access patrick.net continually from anywhere
> - it’s like a perpetual online heroin fix…

I have a Palm Treo 700W and whenever I try and read the patrick.net on the phone/PDA all the text shows up in the middle of the screen with wide margins. Does anyone know how to fix this??

I kind of think it's fun to have a troll around occasionally, just so you can bash them. Shouldn't you play with them more though? Before really kicking a$$?