patrick.net

LILLL,

We should put together a "Housing ATM Debt Clock"? Then run the defaults side by side with all the public HB's and with a "premium subscription" live streaming quotes of all the Mortgage Backed Securities ETF's.

Yeah, that would be cool.

Seems they found a renter in 3 days for one at $6200/mo which is cflo positive.

That IS depressing, though I'd image the pool of renters who could afford this much AND haven't yet bought a place must be miniscule. I wouldn't waste too much time worrying about stupid people in the 0.0001% top income percentile.

skibum --done.

But 6200/month is just the low-end opportunity cost of around 1.5M. I bet the McMansion "worths" more than that?

SFWoman,

Yea, Strawberry is pretty transient for remodelers, temporary corporate re-locations, etc. The effect is pronounced though, as the home prices there continue to post healthy YoY gains despite everything else around there slowing.

I only mentioned this because it is an example of why there is clumpy sticky price action. Strawberry is just one neighborhood of many like this sprinkled throughout the BA. These are not the neighborhoods to watch if you're trying to time the bottom. It's very easy to underestimate the tremendous amount of wealth that props up these types of communities. Strawberry isn't Belvedere/Atherton/Woodside etc. Most of the people there have to work. But very few are likely to be forced into selling at 50% off. All they'll do is rearrange their portfolios and find new hobbies for their flipping spouses.

I'm not so sure the $6200/mo level demand will be much affected by a recession. People paying that kind of money for rent aren't price shopping, and usually represent the upper 2-3 levels of corporate management, high-income professional services, or successfully self-employed/entrepreneurial types. Recessions are just "take from the poor and give to the rich" periods, after all.

[The theatre is on fire...]

Please do not rush to the exit, and if you are running, please crawl. It "falsely" signals to the moviegoers that their lives are in danger.

But 6200/month is just the low-end opportunity cost of around 1.5M. I bet the McMansion “worths” more than that?

The lesser of those homes start around $1.5M. The three people I know who live there are roughly $2.4M, $3.5M, and one that's maybe $4.0M.

The lesser of those homes start around $1.5M. The three people I know who live there are roughly $2.4M, $3.5M, and one that’s maybe $4.0M.

So 6200 is a bargain! :)

One of the options my wife and I considered was making arrangements with a luxury rental place in Las Vegas? Some rent for as much as 20K a month (so I'm pretty sure that ain't happening) but others which seemed every bit as nice were going for as little as 5K per month. Not only furnished but additionally had the kitchen completely outfitted and stocked with essentials.

We felt (b/c nobody seems to know what LV homes should be priced at) that this may be a good short to medium term solution. It's definitely easier and more straight forward then BUYING a place you'd be lucky to use 2 months out of the year and then YOU having to worry about an either rented or empty (abandoned) home the other 10+ months out of the year!

SFWoman,

Uh, could someone refresh my memory here. Is this the same "15% is in the bag for Orange County" Gary Watts? Or is this a different guy? If so, how did we get from 15% in the bag to, "Please don't make your desperation to unload your overpriced pos so damn obvious"?

Some rent for as much as 20K a month

I will not be surprised because I heard some hotels charge that much per day.

The lesser of those homes start around $1.5M. The three people I know who live there are roughly $2.4M, $3.5M, and one that’s maybe $4.0M.

My, we move in exclusive circles, don't we ;-). Please remember to toss me a few truffles and filet bones when I pass through the neighborhood, m'key?

Peter P,

You know, I've heard those kind of numbers being thrown around by high end hotels but just because Robin Leach tells me that Mick Jagger paid 20K a night doesn't necessarily make it so? Or was "Sir" Elton?

Some of the homes in LV rent by the week also for the many convention goers as well. You DO save by taking the whole month but by the week is still pretty reasonable.

Some of the homes in LV rent by the week also for the many convention goers as well. You DO save by taking the whole month but by the week is still pretty reasonable.

I think hotels are definitely cheaper than vacation condos. 30 nights/year at Four Seasons should cost WAY less than an IO mortgage of 1M.

What a great stock market day, by the way.

Days with thin volume and strong breakouts are always good if you've bet the right direction.

Luckily for me the more doom & gloom I kept accumulating the more I reversed my bias to the bullish side.

Peter P,

Let's say an avg. rate of $800 a night (Four SeasonsExecutive Suite) that's about 24K for the whole month. I'm not sure what an IO for a cool mil. would be but even if it WERE less, the "magic" seems to only work until midnight when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin anyway!

Not too sure how I'd feel about Mrs. DinOR brushing up on her tennis skills with the "resident pro" at the Four Seasons though?

Not too sure how I’d feel about Mrs. DinOR brushing up on her tennis skills with the “resident pro” at the Four Seasons though?

Don't worry. It does not have a tennis court onsite. ;)

And don't worry about her gambling either. It does NOT have a casino.

http://www.fourseasons.com/lasvegas/

That said, it is too pricy. I rather wait for those $149/night special at Venetian...

MA,

I know it wasn't me. I've heard that for some time too. Can't get my mind wrapped around how exactly it is that GE and the likes are going to re-accelerate earnings and take a leadership role? In the end I guess I'm just a "widget" company guy. Last I looked Schering Plough is trading at like $19 a share? If you can deal with it call up a 10 yr. chart on SGP. Although I don't recommend it. It's too depressing.

MA, there are ETFs on S&P/Barra indexes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/etf/education/09

You may want to take a look.

not investment advice

However, SmallCap value has been outperforming LargeCap growth for quite a while:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=IJS&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=IVW

Is it possible that the turning point is near?

The Four Seasons Mexico City is great, has enormous rooms for families, and is super cheap on weekends. The breakfast is also very, very good.

I have never been to Mexico City. How was the food in general? I never had luck with Mexican food. :(

Well they say they have a "non-gaming atmosphere" but it's RIGHT ON the Strip!

One thing I HAVE learned about marriage over the years though is sadly gambling is infinitely cheaper than shopping! It can take 12 HOURS to burn through a couple of hundred bucks at penny slots! My buddy played a marathon session at the Silverton with "Lil' Lucy" and after about 14 hours he's UP six bucks?

Let's be honest here, how long does it take going shopping (no, not Walmart) to go through say 2/300 bucks?

When it comes to excess, how much worse is a casual gambling habit (bet's on the 49'ers) than a CHRONIC shopping condition?

So you guys like small caps, I was worried that I had made a mistake, the price of the fund I have has been tanking and I was considering cutting my losses and reducing the percentage I gave it in the portfolio, unfortunately it's in a 401k plan and I don't get much choice about which funds I can pick. Also I read in a Money magazine that traders were getting out of small caps - although that was a few months ago now. They seem to give a big weighting to large caps, but I'm not so sure. What do you think about mid-caps?

Let’s be honest here, how long does it take going shopping (no, not Walmart) to go through say 2/300 bucks?

Not long enough.

When it comes to excess, how much worse is a casual gambling habit (bet’s on the 49′ers) than a CHRONIC shopping condition?

Shopping and gambling are all morally neutral bu themselves. The problem lies in the word "excess".

For me, food can be very expensive too. If I move to vegas, I will probably go broke without gambling. :)

I have been trying to consider who would fair better in a downturn, small cap versus midcap - i.e companies going bankrupt, I guess I'll know when it happens, luckily I don't have much money in the game at the minute, hopefully by the time I do, I'll be more savvy.

Where is this Strawberry?

New Thread: REGIONAL RIVALRY

eburbed

Strawberry is East of 101, the little Peninsula between Seminary Dr and Blithedale Ave/Tiburon Blvd. The McMansions are located in the new development up the hill or out on the point next to the water.

Is this legal?

$900000 CASH OUT RIGHT AFTER YOU PURCHASE! BUY AND REFI, WALK AWAY WITH CASH!

You can try that, but if you walk away, you'll be on the hook for the $900K. The bankruptcy law will enforce it unless you spent it on consumables.

but this certainly is:

We can use your old appraisal, or have it reappraised for a higher amount to get more cash out!