patrick.net

Vee,

There's probably around 7 million households in LA, Orange, Riverside/San Bern and Ventura/Santa Barbara County to put the new listings into perspective.

Hi SF, very true, numbers are staggering, I wish I had a crystal ball to say what’s next, One could say its the beginning of a perfect storm....I was checking the Stocks this afternoon, its scary, I hope this doesn't happen when I am in my 60's... maybe 70's... the way things are going there isn't a safe heaven anymore.... You guys are terrific, helped me to see things from a different perspective... when I came to this blog and now I see the difference in my thinking.... Lesson learnt... I need to do my homework before I make a decision....

Various elements of Americans that are currently practicing homeownership anxiously await the return of appreciation so that they can upgrade their lifestyle. The appreciation gusher so prevalent the past 30 years has gone into hibernation awaiting a new round of prosperity to appear. Could the past 30 years of RE prosperity been but a short blip in modern economic data ?

lineup32
"prevalent the past 30 years?"
I've been paying mortgages for more than 30 years. I think you are overestimating the period of time for any real housing appreciation. It's more like from mid 90's to mid 00's.
I have owned three houses. The first two houses only increased in value based on inflation and improvements that added actual value, like finished basement and building a garage. For my current home, with no value-add improvements, I estimate it would sell for about 1.6x what we paid almost 20 years ago That's about 2.7% per year, maybe less than inflation during that period. I know my income is more than 1.6x what it was 20 years ago.

FYI, it was really hard to accept for a year or more of the bust, that my home value was declining as much as it did. I have now accepted that and realize that the value in 2006 was just plain wrong. I also know that the decline is not over.

I purchased my first home in 1976, San Jose, Calif for 28K sold it in 79 for 54K, did no improvements, then took the money and purchased in a better area of San Jose for 74K and sold that in 89 for 274K, make no improvements not to labor the point I could discuss the other property that I have bought and sold but yes RE did boom boom in 2000's but it has been on a big up slope since the 70's . I sold in 2005 and have rented since
then, no expectations about the prior boom times in RE returning, markets are always changing and its base to have an open mind.
You can look up my original buy on Zillow: 2030 Cranworth Cir, San Jose. Its value is listed around 364K and when I do the inflation look up on BLS site it shows that this should be selling for around 110K inflation adjusted based on its original price. During the bubble peak Zillow shows it at 650K

oh, so the trick is to be a boomer and just be born sooner?

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

What cost $164,000 in 1993 (former sales price) would cost $240,447.53 in 2009. (Which is about spot on right!)

I dont know where you get 28K back in 1976 ???

I purchased a home back in 1976 for 28K, the address was 2030 Cranworth cir, San Jose: I sold that home in 79 and purchased a separate home for 74K which was located in Willow Glen another part of San Jose, I sold that home in 89 for 274K

Bap33: My point is that we have gone through a period of very intense asset inflation relative to RE at least here in Northern Calif. This has been ongoing since I first purchased back in 74. It has now become an deflationary
market. I knew nothing about RE when I first started buying, I was a Vietnam Vet and had a VA loan coming my Wife who grew up in a upper class economic family was very knowledgeable about RE and guided our buying and selling of RE for many years. We sold our bay area home in 2005 and have rented since because home prices are still falling and may do so for a considerable period of time.

We'll hit bottom and have a huge turn around in prices once Obama's Loan Modification Program hits high gear. LOL

Marc Faber wrote in his book 'tomorrow's gold' that it takes many years to hit bottom after a bubble. Not 5 but more like 15-20 years. Just like gold hit bottom in 2000, 20 years after it peaked in 1980. Or stocks made a new low in Japan in 2008, 19 years after it peaked in 1989.

I think real estate will take until 2020-2030 before you have a true bottom. However, since the dollar could collapse in the meantime, I am talking in gold terms here.

I think until interest rates start going up and prices drop it's fair to assume that we haven't hit bottom yet.

I think until interest rates STOP going up, it's fair to assume that we haven't hit bottom yet.

Since they only recently started to go up it will take 10-20 years from here before they stop rising.

And like previous cycle it will probably end somewher above 10% to pay on your mortgage on average.

dutchsailor says

I think real estate will take until 2020-2030 before you have a true bottom

It may well take some time since now in Congress everyone is cutting their ties to the GSEs.
The GSEs will not be spun off into another public entity but will be slowly killed off in 10 years.

------------NEWS FLASH ---------------------------------------------------
FDIC's Bair questions housing tax breaks
Count Sheila Bair among the critics of generous U.S. housing subsidies.

Bair, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said in a speech Monday that Congress should consider paring back federal tax deductions for homeowners. She said these subsidies helped inflate house prices, harming the very consumers that many of the programs aimed to help.

Tax breaks, exit stage left
Bair took aim at federal tax deductions for mortgage interest, local property taxes, and capital gains on house sales (in certain circumstances). She said these taxpayer subsidies for homeowners, taken together, "are about three times the size of all rental subsidies and tax incentives combined."

Even that probably understates the case. Consider the hundreds of billions of dollars the feds are spending to support Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) in the name of making mortgages available, and the limited-time-only tax credits that have helped to prop up house prices over the past year.

Whatever the tab, though, Bair said the problem is the same: Government subsidies for property owners push up the price of houses, undermining so-called affordable housing programs run by the likes of Fannie and Freddie.

this is a very scary question with a very scary answer. in a way, it already has hit bottom in terms of lending and demand. banks are now lending us our own money, so to speak. they're in serious debt of which a very small portion has been transferred to us so that credit could keep flowing. what happens to the larger slice of debt? demand is beneath the surface. there is a tremendous oversupply and worse, a very high jobless rate when you factor the underemployed and such. at the least, salaries are flat. the point is, it's a fool's market right now and in essence is rock bottom. if you're asking when "price" will match the trend, we are months away. a second crash is very soon.

Further proof, as if it was needed, that without the artificial prop of Homebuyers' Tax Credit, prices will continue to drop.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0934503120100609?source=patrick.net

Even more proof the Tax Credit was bust.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-housing-market-recession-is-not-over-2010-06-09?source=patrick.net

A Chinese factory laborer makes $10 on a good day.
I have to admit I agree with you in regards to global wage arbitrage, but at the same time I was shocked to see this today:
ZHONGSHAN, China — Striking workers at a Honda auto parts plant here are demanding the right to form their own labor union, something officially forbidden in China, and are preparing for a protest march on Friday morning.

Even more proof the Tax Credit was bust.

Of course it was a bust.

So will this be, too:

http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/press-release/14712/

read it and throw up

EBGuy says

Striking workers at a Honda auto parts plant

The nut of the story:

"The workers voiced skepticism that the company would meet their demands, mainly an 89 percent increase in their pay. It is currently 900 renminbi a month, or $132, for a 42-hour week, not far above the official minimum wage. An 89 percent increase would be about 800 additional renminbi a month, or a raise of about $117."

42 hours a week sounds like 6 days x 7 hrs a day @ 73c per hour.

If they get their wage-doubling, and if the RMB doubles like it should, that's a whole $3/hr in new wages, about one tenth of what factory work in the US is based at. Toyota is actually paying $50/hr when benefits are included.

When I was waiting for my iPad to arrive from Shenzhen I googled this view of the city:

Google Map

this is a shot from just beyond the border of Hong Kong territory and China proper.

Let's see, Obama has been in office for 16+ months and foreclosures are hitting record numbers for 15 months. I'm really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

RealtyTrac Reports Foreclosure Activity Over 300,000 For 15th Straight Month As REOs Set New Monthly Record
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2010 23:28 -0500

Double Dip Florida Illinois Las Vegas Michigan RealtyTrac

Michael Pento's expectation of a major double dip in housing is starting to come through. RealtyTrac reported that even as foreclosure filings declined marginally, by 3% in May, to 322,920 (1% higher YoY), bank repossessions (REOs) hit a record monthly high for the second month in a row, with 93,777 properties repossessed by lenders.

A very informative site. Looks like things are not getting better, but are trending negative.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/10-real-estate-charts-texas-ratio-pending-homes-sales-showing-no-recovery-in-2010/?source=patrick.net

RayAmerica says

Looks like things are not getting better, but are trending negative.

Translation for all of you who don't "know" rayray: He hates all things Obama and, having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks, he intends to do the same thing here.

Finally, Ms. ellie "I never, ever insult anyone" mae fesses up and tells it like it is. I think it is admirable for her to admit she's "driving everyone away" with her "rhetoric and constant personal attacks." LOL!

elliemae says

having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks

robertoaribas says

Since when does the job of president include either supporting an asset classes prices (housing) or figuring out how to pay legally contracted loans for people?

Are you saying Obama's Homebuyer's Tax Credit and his Loan Modification program wasn't his "job?" LOL !!! This is way too easy.

RayAmerica says

Finally, Ms. ellie “I never, ever insult anyone” mae fesses up and tells it like it is. I think it is admirable for her to admit she’s “driving everyone away” with her “rhetoric and constant personal attacks.” LOL!
elliemae says

having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks

Ya caught me in a typo, rayray. It happens from time to time. I originally posted it as coming from your point of view... but a typo doesn't change things, troll. You are offensive and rude, and have driven many people away. But I refuse to get into a battle of wits with an unarmed person.
I still think it's cute the way you like to write my name over & over, adding a little to it.

now now ellie, his post was anti-Lord Barry and you stepped up. Just to be fair, you found the action, not rayray.

RayAmerica says

Let’s see, Obama has been in office for 16+ months and foreclosures are hitting record numbers for 15 months. I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

nah, bap. It's anti-Obama, and anti everyone who he believes to be liberal. To be fair, rayray is a troll and it doesn't matter which forum he posts on, he will spout his inuendos.

In the same vein, though, he's never denied his culpability in the molestation scandal. He is a huge fan of Glen Beck, who may or may not have raped and killed young girls. I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

See how it works?

I would not say Lord Barry had a role in the loose lending that let the mess happen. I would blame liberal lending rules. Liberal, not like the political use of the word, but like -- the other way to use it. Like, opposite of strict.

yes, there was a definite loosening of lending standards sometime between 2001 and 2004.

vdare is your basic white supremacy site but I can't really object to what they wrote here:

http://www.vdare.com/sailer/080928_rove.htm

(well, I read it about a month ago so if there's something icky on that page I apologize in advance)

Mr Rove was a wonk's wonk when it came to electoral math, always looking for that 0.1% edge that would put his team 1 vote over the other guy (cf Florida and NH in 2000, LOL). IIRC home owners tend to vote (R) more than renters, so there was that impetus behind the lending liberalization this decade.

Not that this is a partisan thing. I think the Dems too would have been unable to resist the temptation to inflate a housing bubble to get out of the tech recession 2001-2003. Who can pass up a free five trillion of cold hard cash in five years?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT?cid=97

elliemae says

In the same vein, though, he’s never denied his culpability in the molestation scandal. He is a huge fan of Glen Beck, who may or may not have raped and killed young girls.

If this isn't an illustration of a statement of a crazy woman, what is? She's a complete, slanderous liar. I have NEVER seen "Glen Beck" due to the fact I don't even own an idiot box, i.e. TV. A complete, absolute nutcase.

RayAmerica says

She’s a complete, slanderous liar.

And yet you won't deny the charges. Hmmmmm, wonder why? I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

RayAmerica says

If this isn’t an illustration of a... crazy woman, what is?

This is! (You're very welcome)

elliemae says

RayAmerica says

She’s a complete, slanderous liar.

And yet you won’t deny the charges. Hmmmmm, wonder why? I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

It really does Make one think. and he (Beck) has never addressed this? ( hahaha)

I love throwing their own crap back at them when they doen't realize you're doing it.

NAZIS!!!!! Socialists!!! there everywhere!!!! and everything wrong now is Obamas fault!( ha ha)

He is just the President of a really broken system not the guy who broke it. well at least not yet anyways.

Danimal says

I love throwing their own crap back at them when they doen’t realize you’re doing it.

Notice how rayray says he's NEVER seen Glen Beck - (wonder why he's yelling at me - he's awful touchy about his alleged friendship with the Glenster), yet doesn't deny he's a fan? Nor will he confirm or deny his involvement in a molestation which may (or may not) have occurred.
RayAmerica says

I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.
LOL !!! This is way too easy.

Crazy people never seem to live long. If you don't have a will ellie, you should hurry up and get one. You wouldn't want your relatives fighting over your straight jacket and the 5 cents you're worth now would you?

I really enjoy Glenn Back.

We need more American's like Glenn Beck.

RayAmerica says

Crazy people never seem to live long. If you don’t have a will ellie, you should hurry up and get one. You wouldn’t want your relatives fighting over your straight jacket and the 5 cents you’re worth now would you?

You really suck at this game, Francis.

elliemae says

having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks

LOL !!!!!

We heard you the first time, Francis. The pages are beginning to stick together at this point.