patrick.net

tatupu70 says

No they’re not. Have you checked out LCD TVs lately?

You're conflating technology improvements with monetary inflation? That is an apples to oranges comparison. You can read the BLS commodity price list (http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppitable06.pdf) if you want a more correct view. Great article on that here (http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html) but, "Grains as a class have risen over 33% year-over-year. Refined oil products have risen just shy of 13%, with home heating oil rising 18% year-over-year. "
tatupu70 says

Oh, well–if the talking heads on TV say it then it must be true. Never mind that it’s nothing like the Great Depression..

Most people still put some store in what the talking head on the TV box says. These days food stamps and unemployment benefits have reduced the soup kitchen lines and hobos, but that just hides the problem, that doesn't mean that there isn't one.

clayfire23 says

gameisrigged,
I answered your questions many times already. The answer to both your questions is the same. Home values collapsed because YOU succeeded in spreading the perception that the home price appreciation that we had just in some parts of the country was totally unjustified, and so the whole country should suffer a massive correction in prices. You will continue to spread that perception, until all American homes are totally worthless.

Ha, ha - I didn't know I had that kind of power.

Hey everyone - I command you not to buy a house until they cost $1 each. LOL.

So THAT'S what you meant by "we are deflating housing"? You mean it is your belief that the housing crash was caused by some dudes on a message board? Sorry, but I have to disagree with your theory.

I already stated that perception is reality. If the perception changes that home values will rise 10% in the following year, how many current homeowners will foreclose intentionally?

I disagree. Lots of people tried to wait out the crash, and ended up chasing the market down. Silly homeowners thought it would be over in a few months and we'd be right back to bubble-land. That's why the majority of houses for sale in 2008 were foreclosures - because nobody would put their house up for sale unless forced to. Did that "perception" that prices would immediately come back help anything? No. Many people's homes are worth even less now, so waiting actually made things even worse for them.

Your whole argument that the home price rise was unjustified has to be either based on Shiller’s inflation adjusted charts, or based on median price to median income multiples that indicate affordability. Both of those do a poor job in defining what a “home” is, so how can you use those blindly? I am not saying using those metrics is wrong, but define them well first, and use them the same way across the world. How can anyone justify a typical dirty 1000-sqft apartment in India or China’s metros being 50 times the local typical household income while considering it unjustified for a nice typical single family home in say L.A or Boston to be even 5 times the local typical household income?

We're just going in circles now. You keep insisting that comparing our prices to other countries is relevant, when several of us have explained to you why it's not a good comparison, and you haven't addressed any of those points. Just the fact that you consider a communist country with a population density over 4 times greater than the U.S. to be valid as an unqualified comparison of housing cost, shows you haven't the slightest clue what you're talking about. And again, the fact that you're trying to compare trailers where the buyer doesn't even own the land it sits on, is just embarassing for you.

The demand/supply argument is not strong. There is always demand if the perception is that prices will go up. Supply exceeds demand if prices are expected to go down. This is true in every part of the world. A lot of people are waiting on the sidelines or have exited homeownership because the current perception is that prices will go down.

O.K., I'll let every economist in the world know that you do not believe supply vs. demand has any effect on markets. I'm sure they'll rewrite all the textbooks in light of your revelation.

You want a palace of gold for just a few dollars, and if I call that as unreasonable and suggest a small condo for that price, you just call my argument “silly”.

No, claiming that I said I "want a palace of gold for just a few dollars" isn't silly at all, is it? And when did I say that, again?

You consider it “fake” money if housing goes up even 2% per year.

Strawman.

In other words, you will be happy if housing goes down in value every year like a used car does. Should that not apply to the stock market, 401k investing, gold, silver et al?

Only if it's overvalued.

Is all “investing” fake and “greedy”? Are you so distraught with your own life that everyone losing their wealth in every possible way is all that you wish your every living minute?

Strawman.

Our citizens have lost 14 trillion in wealth in the last few years, as per this article out today titled :

False. That "wealth" was fake, overinflated bubble assets. A more accurate way to put it would be to say that housing was overvalued by 14 trillion dollars, and now it is returning to normal. What good is fake wealth if it can't be sustained, and screws up the economy when it crashes?

tts says

You’re conflating technology improvements with monetary inflation? That is an apples to oranges comparison.

I'm not conflating anything. You specifically mentioned electronics as somewhere that prices were rising. Now you want to change and say you were actually talking about commodities?

robertoaribas says

There was a rather in depth article about this today in fact, on the news, profits are dropping at LCD manufactures which rather proves this is not deflation, and rather a market disequilibrium. Funny Tapa-bootie thought this meant something else!

Not really funny ha-ha, but whatever makes you laugh is a good thing. What I thought was that it meant prices of LCD TVs were falling. Which is pretty much the definition of deflation.

robertoaribas says

If you really feel that this entire crisis is caused because some people see it, and actually write about it, well as they say in the south, God bless you! [I think that translates from Southern to English as ” you are too much of an idiot to bother explaining it to” but I don’t speak fluent Southern]

LOL

klarek, you have now self-destructed yourself....LOL....thanks for confessing that your entire philosophy is based on Case Shiller data. That is all you got? Case Shiller data is just ONE measure, and is by no means without major flaws

1. It uses data from just 20 metros, and ignores MANY metros including the MidWest that have multi-million populations

2. It compares same home re-sales, but totally ignores improvements/remodelling/teardown and reconstruction of the home that causes it to go up in value. In the last 20 years, so much has gone into home renovation/room additions/finished basements etc and government sponsored re-development of several neighborhoods and homes, all of which raises the value of a given home, but that does not matter to Case Shiller.

3. It only considers homes that have been sold twice in a specific short time period, and so that skews the sample quite a bit, and includes more of the short term "flip" sales especially with foreclosed homes

To be honest, the Case Shiller index actually does not help your case or mine. It can easily overstate both home price appreciation AND home price declines because of its methodology. Other methodologies are also not perfect, which is why I keep bringing you guys back to first defining what a median home is before analyzing its price or affordability. You can be like gameisrigged and refuse to acknowledge the greediness of wanting to buy a palace of gold for a dollar, or do some fair analysis. The choice is yours.

Case Shiller's big research basically just says that home prices have stayed the same as inflation over the past 100 years. They do not jump around and include GDP, local economy etc. They are consistent in what they say, unlike you. You like to use inflation where it works for you, and then jump to GDP where it does not. And by the way, GDP can easily be bloated up with fake housing/infrastructure building, and so GDP cannot be justified to do more building or price rises. The Chinese government does this on a massive scale with government sponsored home and city building, and there are many ghost cities with no citizens. GDP is another factor that actually does NOT help your argument.

But ignoring all that, and even just looking at the Case Shiller data for what it is worth, I see many places even its 20 cities where prices are now below inflation. As per the inflation calculator provided by the Bureau of Labor Stats at
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl, the cumulative inflation from 2000 to 2010 is 27%. From 1990 to 2010 is 67%. So prices should be 27% higher than 2000, and yet it is not in ALL the following cities, considering that the Case Shiller index started at 100 in Jan 2000. It is actually not up 67% from 1990 in quite a few cities just in the 20 that Case Shiller follows. There are many cities in the MidWest like Indianapolis, St.Louis, Kansas City etc where prices have lagged inflation quite a bit.

2010/2000/1990 index values
Atlanta 109/106/69
Charlotte 115/102/74
Dallas 119/106/na
Phoenix 111/105/66
Las Vegas 102/105/82
Chicago 125/107/71
Cleveland 106/103/69
Detroit 70/105/58

There are more cities in the Case Shiller list that are pretty close to being on par with inflation now and if home prices drop even more, will start lagging inflation.

Now who trusts the official inflation numbers put out by the BLS? that is a whole different story and not worth getting into here...enough to say that the official inflation numbers are considered to be far less than what they actually are....

tatupu70 says

I’m not conflating anything. You specifically mentioned electronics as somewhere that prices were rising.

And they are rising. The new tech causes temporary price drops but then the price starts to go up again because the matierials they're made from keep costing more. Did you not read the BLS report?

tatupu70 says

Not really funny ha-ha, but whatever makes you laugh is a good thing. What I thought was that it meant prices of LCD TVs were falling. Which is pretty much the definition of deflation.

"Deflation" as its used by the FED is a monetary term when talking about the money supply as a whole shrinking effecting the value of the dollar. You're talking about the price of a single class of goods, or even just a single item falling which can also be described as deflation in terms of price but not as economists use it. The BLS report shows the price pretty much _all_ commodities rising though, and that will effect everything. You still haven't addressed that.

tts says

“Deflation” as its used by the FED is a monetary term when talking about the money supply as a whole shrinking effecting the value of the dollar. You’re talking about the price of a single class of goods, or even just a single item falling which can also be described as deflation in terms of price but not as economists use it. The BLS report shows the price pretty much _all_ commodities rising though, and that will effect everything. You still haven’t addressed that.

I haven't addressed it because you weren't talking about it until just last post. Previously you were arguing that prices were rising and using WalMart as an example. If that were true, it would be shown in the CPI. Which it's not. Inflation has been and continues to be very tame.

Now if you want to argue that we will see inflation in the future because of rising commodities--that's a different discussion. I would say that's a big maybe. Of course commodities have risen over the last year as the world economy has improved. Not sure that's big news.

tts says

“Deflation” as its used by the FED is a monetary term when talking about the money supply as a whole shrinking effecting the value of the dollar.

Wrong. Here is the generally accepted definition of deflation:

In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.

It can be caused by monetary factors, but that is not the definition.

It appears that James at bubblemeter already beat me to what I said in my last post. He posted this in 2009.
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/05/cities-below-2000-inflation-adjusted.html

clayfire23 says

klarek, you have now self-destructed yourself….LOL….thanks for confessing that your entire philosophy is based on Case Shiller data. That is all you got? Case Shiller data is just ONE measure, and is by no means without major flaws

I look at them all. CS has pretty sound methodology though.
clayfire23 says

It compares same home re-sales, but totally ignores improvements/remodelling/teardown and reconstruction of the home that causes it to go up in value.

Actually, if you bothered to look up the methodology used by the group that collects the data, they do exactly that. Try again.

clayfire23 says

It only considers homes that have been sold twice in a specific short time period, and so that skews the sample quite a bit, and includes more of the short term “flip” sales especially with foreclosed homes

There isn't any kind of covenant on time which you're alluding to.

tatupu70 says

I haven’t addressed it because you weren’t talking about it until just last post.

Uh yes I was, I've said commodities multiple times now.

tatupu70 says

Previously you were arguing that prices were rising and using WalMart as an example. If that were true, it would be shown in the CPI. Which it’s not. Inflation has been and continues to be very tame.

CPI is juked and I already said why (doesn't track home prices, gas, food, etc. properly), BLS report has the numbers, you're still ignoring that. Quite changing the subject and look at the BLS report.

tatupu70 says

Wrong. Here is the generally accepted definition of deflation:
In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.
It can be caused by monetary factors, but that is not the definition.

Yes you cited one of the definitions, good on you, there are multiple ones. Use the proper one in its proper place. Also use the one you intend to use properly. "General price level" is not one product or even class of goods, its all of them. Address the BLS report and stop changing the subject.

tts says

CPI is juked and I already said why (doesn’t track home prices, gas, food, etc. properly), BLS report has the numbers, you’re still ignoring that. Quite changing the subject and look at the BLS report

you realize that BLS is responsible for CPI too, right? So, the PPI that you quote is correct, but the CPI isn't? OK--whatever you say.

I did address the BLS report. It was the PPI which tracks producer price index. Do you not understand what it means?

tts says

Yes you cited one of the definitions, good on you, there are multiple ones

I'm sure there are any number of incorrect ones...

If foreclosures are "spreading," what effect does that have on prices?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?source=patrick.net&storyId=130881128#recommendationCntHref

robertoaribas says

tapa bootie: owners equivalent rent is something like 30% of the CPI index. In a world with dropping and/or stagnant rents this offets a rather fair amount of inflation in other categories.
I’m not saying we are seeing serious inflation today, deflationary pressures from rent and housing price drops and credit contraction are outweighing them; just saying the CPI is probably not capturing true inflation very well given nearly 1/3 of it is housing related.

Aren't housing costs about 30% of an average families budget? So that's what they should represent in the CPI too.

Isn't capitalism grand.

robertoaribas says

don’t charge more because they want to

You don't like more money? What's wrong with you?

"The market" is orthogonal to morality and as such facilitates amorality and the eventually the de-facto enslavement of people given the physical economics of land tenure and the fact that landlords reap what they do not sow.

"As soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce." -- some communist

> Not the kind of place I would ever buy.

Thanks for your comments.
Why not, though? By your own estimates ("I wouldn’t be surprised if you could get $2200-2400"), it appears to offer higher ROI % that some of your properties reported here.

Yey. Apocalypse is back. Actually I'll plant sweet potatoes.

bubblesitter says

Fed should seriously start planning on getting some ink and paper from China for QE4.

It may just be the whisky doing the thinking for me tonight, but I think I have a brilliant idea. Let us outsource the fucking Fed to China and get _them_ to print the damn money themselves. Saves a lot of time and trouble since they are going to get the money anyway... Bernanke can go fuck himself for 99 weeks on unemployment.

native94027 says

bubblesitter says

Fed should seriously start planning on getting some ink and paper from China for QE4.

It may just be the whisky doing the thinking for me tonight, but I think I have a brilliant idea. Let us outsource the fucking Fed to China and get _them_ to print the damn money themselves. Saves a lot of time and trouble since they are going to get the money anyway… Bernanke can go fuck himself for 99 weeks on unemployment.

you go to the front of the class

Bap33 says

native94027 says

bubblesitter says

Fed should seriously start planning on getting some ink and paper from China for QE4.

It may just be the whisky doing the thinking for me tonight, but I think I have a brilliant idea. Let us outsource the fucking Fed to China and get _them_ to print the damn money themselves. Saves a lot of time and trouble since they are going to get the money anyway… Bernanke can go fuck himself for 99 weeks on unemployment.

you go to the front of the class

Actually this has already been happening. The reason the People's Bank of China has $2.5T of money-good assets under its wing is because it forcibly confiscates all USDs China's exporters receive for their goods, and prints the yuan in exchange.

Or so I've read (IIRC this is one of Peter Schiff's theses). Obviously there is outward loss of USD as China makes import purchases, but that's the general pattern since the mid-90s.

Tenouncetrout says

CNN.COM had the stones to print that “70%” of real estate is afordable.
Afordable for whom, Foreigners?

70% is affordable for dual income households willing to invest every penny they have into a mortgage. Not to mention their hip hop thug children, left alone to raise themselves while momma works at the office.

It's very comforting to know that Patrick (influenced by that Duck Dude I presume) has changed the name from "Housing Crash Forum” to the much more optimistic “Housing Market Forum.” It sounds so much better. Unfortunately, prices are still crashing.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/7-charts-showing-a-10-to-15-percent-decline-in-home-prices-for-u-s-housing-in-2011/?source=patrick.net

Clarence 13X says

Tenouncetrout says

CNN.COM had the stones to print that “70%” of real estate is afordable.
Afordable for whom, Foreigners?

70% is affordable for dual income households willing to invest every penny they have into a mortgage. Not to mention their hip hop thug children, left alone to raise themselves while momma works at the office.

100% agree

Troy ... from the article:

"In a separate report today, the Realtors group said U.S. sales tumbled 25 percent to a 4.16 million seasonally adjusted annual pace in the third quarter from the previous three months. The pace was 21 percent below the 5.28 million rate of the year- earlier period."

A 25% drop in sales from a previous bad sales year doesn't translate into higher prices in the future. Without adequate sales activity needed to burn through the excess (as in huge) inventory, prices will continue to be stagnant at best, with the likelihood of decreasing prices remaining high. With all this "good news," keep in mind the millions of homes in the shadow inventory that the banks are withholding from the market in order to prevent the supply from decreasing values even further. No matter how you look at it, home prices will be pressured via market forces in a downward direction for years to come.

RayAmerica says

A 25% drop in sales from a previous bad sales year doesn’t translate into higher prices in the future.

Was 2009 a bad housing year? I thought prices generally rose in '09.

RayAmerica says

Without adequate sales activity needed to burn through the excess (as in huge) inventory, prices will continue to be stagnant at best, with the likelihood of decreasing prices remaining high

Agreed. I think sales activity is already rising and will continue to slowly rise making your point moot.

RayAmerica says

With all this “good news,” keep in mind the millions of homes in the shadow inventory that the banks are withholding from the market in order to prevent the supply from decreasing values even further.

Ah, yes. The infamous shadow inventory. Banks for some reason didn't put all this inventory on the market in 2009 while prices were rising... It's the boogeyman hiding in the closet waiting to bite unsuspecting buyers.

RayAmerica says

No matter how you look at it, home prices will be pressured via market forces in a downward direction for years to come.

Speak for yourself Ray..

robertoaribas says

Supply and demand are forward looking… and both are against you at this point in time. Year over year SALES is indicative of demand… and forward looking in terms of price.

Year over year numbers are most definitely NOT forward looking. Month to month numbers are better but not great. Look at pending sales or mortgage applications. Those are actual forward looking statistics.

robertoaribas says

Once again, you must be going to lose your A$$ if prices drop. You aren’t stupid enough to believe what you write, so it must be an emotional response.

Wow--it must be nice to live in such an insulated world where you know everything before it happens. You do understand that sales activity has been picking up in the last few months after a sharp drop when the credit ended, right? If anyone is acting emotionally, it's you...

robertoaribas says

good grief! sales number tell us how many people are buying now! of course this gives us an idea of current, or worst case, 45 day ago, demand

Wait a second. I thought the Case Shiller numbers were still being influenced by the housing credit that expired in April because there were a good number of 180+ day closings... Which is it?

Sales number typicall come out a couple of weeks after the month ended and reflect offers accepted 30-60 days ago. That is not a forward number. That's 2 month+ old data.

We definitely don't need you arguing our case. Thanks for trying though

robertoaribas says

tapa butie: are you pretending to be stupid? or are you actually really stupid?
Case-Shiller = price data
Sales rates are how many are selling.
Now, if 99% of all buyers drop dead tomorrow, the prices of all the listings, nor the prior months sales, are not going to change over night. BUT the number of transactions, in the following week and month after their mass death, I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say the number of sales might drop.
I am beginning to understand the nature of why you and I argue: you are clueless, and I have a large background in economics and math…
when the SALES drop to a lower number, this implies less demand, which implies that prices will drop down the line…
My case stands: LAST years sales were higher than they should have been, due to the perceived end of the buyer’s credit; So 20% down year over year might not be as bad as it implies… Once again, this probably went over your head.

Roberto--Obviously you are not getting it. If a drop in sales correlates to a price drop down the line, then a rise in pending sales and mortgage applications will result in higher sales down the line and higher prices even further down the line.

I'm not sure how much more clear I can be. Someone with your background in statistics and math surely can understand that, right?

tatupu70 says

Ah, yes. The infamous shadow inventory. Banks for some reason didn’t put all this inventory on the market in 2009 while prices were rising… It’s the boogeyman hiding in the closet waiting to bite unsuspecting buyers.

Check out the "boogeyman" by going here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/164044-the-impact-of-residential-real-estates-shadow-inventory-on-housing

tatupu70 says

I think sales activity is already rising and will continue to slowly rise making your point moot.

Incredible. You didn't even take the time to read the article I posted, and yet you have the audacity to comment on it. If you would take the time to read it, you'd notice that it clearly states sales activity is not "rising" as you claim, but in fact, it is dropping. Change the flavor of the Kool-Aid you're drinking. The one you're on now is killing brain cells by the billions.

RayAmerica says

Incredible. You didn’t even take the time to read the article I posted, and yet you have the audacity to comment on it. If you would take the time to read it, you’d notice that it clearly states sales activity is not “rising” as you claim, but in fact, it is dropping. Change the flavor of the Kool-Aid you’re drinking. The one you’re on now is killing brain cells by the billions.

I read it. It says that activity has dropped YOY. I was refering to more recent data...

robertoaribas says

yes, tapa bootie: and mortgage applications to BUY homes are about 20% below last year, about 30% below where they were the entire quarter, before the home buying credit ended.
SO, thank you for bringing up more data that supports the premise, home prices are more likely to fall in most areas, then they are to rise.
Your last post bring you up a notch in my book. You are now at notch 1!

Roberto--I'm clearly not getting through to you. I'm well aware that sales are off YOY. I don't care anymore--that's old news. I'm more concerned with where prices are going in the future and what the current trend is in sales activity.

There are two possible scenarios in my opinion. The one that most here believe is that housing prices never found their bottom and that the credit simply delayed the end of the crash. Once it ended the crash would resume. But the one that I think is equally plausible is that the housing credit had a small effect, but that the crash was mostly over by the time the credit ended. In that case, there would be a drop in sales activity as the end of the credit would certainly pull ahead some demand, but the normal sales activity would resume after a few months.

I don't think it's clear yet which scenario is correct, but that's why I'm more concerned with forward looking data than YOY numbers.

tatupu70 says

The one that most here believe is that housing prices never found their bottom and that the credit simply delayed the end of the crash. Once it ended the crash would resume

And so it continues....

Press Releases
Home Values Near Unprecedented Decline as Hints of Stabilization Wane in Third Quarter
Percentage of Homeowners Underwater Reaches New Peak; Length and Depth of Housing Downturn Approach Depression-Era Declines According to Q3 2010 Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports

"While not unexpected, the unceasing declines in home values signal that we're in for a long, bleak winter of continued troubles for the housing market," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "The length and depth of the current housing recession is rivaling the Great Depression's real estate downturn, and, with encouraging signs fading, will easily eclipse it in the coming months.

Anyway! its just a correction as some say "crash" that has been long long over due ...

Zlxr says

Roberto - do you think it’s possible that the really rich investor groups who are buying blocks of houses for pennies on the dollar (ie - the friends of the Banks) will continue as the Banks speed up the foreclosures?

If a bank's executives arranged an insider deal to sell an asset for pennies on the dollar (assuming that there were a higher price available on the open market) then they would be in violation of their duty to the banks shareholders and in violation of a number of laws and sec regulations. If you are aware of this actually happening report it now.

Zlxr says

The only thing I heard (from a Bankruptcy Lawyer back in 2007) was that there were investors who were buying groups of homes for somewhere between 30 - 50 cents on the dollar. He said these homes never make it to the courthouse steps.

you can check out the reo sites... bankofamerica.reo.com and reo.wachovia.com or whatever. these don't have jack. Clearly they are selling to "professional" investors before the public. Doesn't everything work that way? Even the job postings in big corps don't make it to the careers website unless no H1 and no internal candidate is available. Its not where you look but who you know. Heck, I used to try to do government contract bids in SC. Out of 7 I was low bidder on 2. And i was a local company. Still never got a contract. Finally, I heard the head of purchasing told an entrepreneur group that unless he knew them personally they would never get a contract with the State of SC. That's how business really works.

maxweber says

I reckon that suggests housing is not at bottom since money supply is drying up and the bulk of the “new” money is going into black hole accounts.

That's exactly where the TARP money went, into the "black hole" to balance out the toxic loans the banksters are holding. All those Kool-Aid drinkers (I Love My Government) were duped into thinking it was designed to increase liquidity in order to get the economy moving again, when in fact, it was nothing other than a pay-back for all the banksters & Wall Street thugs misdeeds. What’s worse is that both parties were complicit in this illegal transfer of wealth.

SF ace says

Google only looks at resume with a minimum 3.5 GPA at a stanford level institution regardless of experience, otherwise, forget about it.

I have a dozen friends at google, including one of the founding engineers. I can assure that is not the case, a few of them never attended college at all.

Google management is not stupid. They're after talent, regardless of formal education level.

Feb. 1st, 2013

Once we get past Dec. 2012 it's a new world baby! Whether you believe that the Mayans used Microsoft Exchange (EOL=12/21/2012) or not the lifting of that psychological vial will have some positive effect on housing. We will also be just over 4yrs out from August (Sept. for those that want to ignore what was happening in the month before the fall) 2008. 4yrs is a good timeframe for starting to forget the past.

tarkin says

Feb. 1st, 2013
Once we get past Dec. 2012 it’s a new world baby! Whether you believe that the Mayans used Microsoft Exchange (EOL=12/21/2012) or not the lifting of that psychological vial will have some positive effect on housing. We will also be just over 4yrs out from August (Sept. for those that want to ignore what was happened the month before the fall) 2008. 4yrs is a good timeframe for starting to forget the past.

And, most importantly, we would likely have a brand-new US president!