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blue chip bay area shadow inventory


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2010 Mar 1, 12:31pm   4,890 views  16 comments

by samsmom   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I just checked foreclosureradar.com to see how my neighborhoods are doing with regard to shadow inventory. Lo and Behold, I discover each area has between 60-80 homes in some stage of foreclosure with the majority being set for auction.The areas I researched included Mill Valley, Tiburon, Orinda, Lafayette, and Alamo. The inventory is still low in Lafayette and Orinda, and the prices are still listed very high...same goes with all the neighborhoods actually, however,  analyzing the sales prices in most cases with the exception of a few homes are all under asking, but when talking to realtors, they would say all these homes are getting multiple offers or being bought with all cash? Million dollar homes?? They also tell me there are few to no foreclosures in these areas....even though foreclosure radar has pages upon pages of homes going up for auction.I just don't get it. Does anyone know whats going on? I'm sure the government isn't going to bail out people who are defaulting on loans over 1MM. Is it time to buy a house now? Are the banks going to continue to allow 100's of bay area homeowners in 1MM+++ homes to live for free indefinitely? That is whats happening in the case of homes supposedly going up for auction? Correct? These people have not paid their mortgages in months, right? Who are these people that get to live rent/mortgage free?Its just not fair. (sigh) My daughter is turning 2 and I want a home. I am sick of renting, but I am stubborn and refuse to buy something under these circumstances. It doesn't seem right. This shadow inventory, people living for free in 1MM++ homes,  new listings still priced really high. What's going on here?

#housing

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2   thomas.wong1986   2010 Mar 1, 3:43pm  

576 sqft, $410,000 W Mckinley Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94086
Contact this Property...
House Foreclosure
Last updated: 25 days, 13 hours ago
Pricing1 bed: $410,000
Full Baths: 1
Square Feet: 576

671 sqft, $494,132
Ehrhorn Avenue
Mountain View, CA 94041
Contact this Property...
House Foreclosure
Last updated: 7 days, 11 hours ago
Pricing
2 beds: $494,132

Full Baths: 1
Square Feet: 671

LOL! what were the buyers even thinking ?

3   phillipsann   2010 Mar 2, 3:08am  

Samsmom--I'm with you!! By the way, I also have a Sam--great name! I am so frustrated with Menlo Park that I could scream. I just finished going through several homes on a broker's tour (my brother in law has agent MLS access) and the agents are all in there talking about their multiple offers, ha, ha, ha, let's get another all cash offer in, etc.

Looking at the foreclosure data for MP and Redwood City, there should be plenty of homes on the market, they would sell instantly! My husband and I want to put an offer in on a home in Redwood City, terrible school district (ours go to Catholic), with all the comps coming in below what the agent has it listed for. The agent says the sellers will not even look at the offer if it is not close to asking--the house has been on/off the market for almost two years!! Won't even look at it?? With the government continuing to prop up deadbeat homeowners and the agents refusing to show sellers offers, how do you get a home?

What I really want to happen is this: Obama pulls back all "propping" scams, foreclosures come on market, prices adjust, and we all can finally buy a home we can afford to stay in for a long time!

4   Patrick   2010 Mar 2, 3:39am  

Yes, welcome to the scam that is American housing. The whole system is designed (rather, evolved) to trap you into the maximum amount of debt possible.

My advice:

1. Avoid realtors at all costs. If a realtor is involved, you're not going to get a good deal. If it were a good deal, they'd buy it and turn around and sell it to you for much more. Worse, they hide the actual seller from you. You can't even tell if your offers are getting through. The only way to get a good deal is to contact the owner directly. US mail is still good for that. Even if the seller insists on using a realtor, mail a copy of every offer to the seller directly, so the realtor cannot block it.

2. Wait. Yes, wait. Prices are still falling, and every month the lower prices is a potential tax-free gain for you, not to mention the lower property tax and the savings you get by renting.

3. Enjoy life. The massive savings of renters in Menlo Park means they can enjoy the good schools and indulge in every luxury when they avoid that huge mortgage. Travel, take up sailing or horseback riding, buy a nice car, eat the best food, and most of all, spend quality time with your family that would otherwise be wasted slaving to pay interest to the bank.

5   Leigh   2010 Mar 2, 3:51am  

Yes, welcome to the scam that is American housing. The whole system is designed (rather, evolved) to trap you into the maximum amount of debt possible.
My advice:
1. Avoid realtors at all costs. If a realtor is involved, you’re not going to get a good deal. If it were a good deal, they’d buy it and turn around and sell it to you for much more. Worse, they hide the actual seller from you. You can’t even tell if your offers are getting through. The only way to get a good deal is to contact the owner directly. US mail is still good for that. Even if the seller insists on using a realtor, mail a copy of every offer to the seller directly, so the realtor cannot block it.
2. Wait. Yes, wait. Prices are still falling, and every month the lower prices is a potential tax-free gain for you, not to mention the lower property tax and the savings you get by renting.
3. Enjoy life. The massive savings of renters in Menlo Park means they can enjoy the good schools and indulge in every luxury when they avoid that huge mortgage. Travel, take up sailing or horseback riding, buy a nice car, eat the best food, and most of all, spend quality time with your family that would otherwise be wasted slaving to pay interest to the bank.

Thanks, Patrick, especially for #3. I am getting so burned out from watching the bubble grow and now slowly deflate taking the world with it. I never would have imagined the extent of the damage, ie, 8 million jobs lost thus far!?!?! Countries around the world goin bankrupt?!?!?!

Sometimes I feel like checking out as in "Stop reading the news, the blogs, etc" but I think it is a prudent responsibility to keep up on this stuff to protect my family.

But, yes, focus on the good stuff:O) In fact, the family and I are planning a road trip to the Bay Area over Spring Break!, 2 little ones to boot! Insanity, right?!?! We'll take a couple of days to get there and then we plan to eat our way through San Francisco, enjoy Golden Gate Park while the spouse ventures out for some photography, check out FairyLand (?) in Oakland for my 3.5 year old, and try to get in some good ol' family time:O)

6   pkennedy   2010 Mar 2, 4:50am  

I wouldn't blame everything on this housing bubble. "Countries" going broke? Greece/Italy have been famous for getting into debt and then trying to pull out be devaluing their currency. I was wondering 10 years ago how they were going to handle economic issues in the future. This wasn't housing, this was just a government with problems. Dubai? They aren't bankrupt, the company doing all the building might be. They might be in rough shape, but it's just debt within a country. I'm sure there aren't many things creditors could even do to try and get back that money. Some jobs were lost because they were hired to try and keep pace with the housing bubble, no surprise there. Others were lost due to just market being down, not helped in part by the housing companies going belly up, but many aren't directly related to the housing industry at all.

A house is worth what a person will pay for it. If they're willing to pay everything they've got to get a house, then that is what it's worth. For many of us, it's about waiting until our style of buying comes along. Many of us would prefer a lower cost on the house, with faster pay back times (eg higher interest rates). Anyone hoping for low interest rates + low home prices + easy credit, is going to be renting forever. It's really about picking one or two conditions and waiting for them to come along.

7   Leigh   2010 Mar 2, 7:08am  

pkennedy, I'm thinking about the financial crisis fallout, you know the concurrent bubble, the credit bubble. I remember reading about the little island of Palau and here is an update:

http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2010/March/03-02-10.htm

Even Greenland got hit.

8   EBGuy   2010 Mar 2, 8:07am  

3 Stanton Court, Orinda (3 bed, 1576 sq.ft.)
This was owned by an older person, so there could have been health issues or other extenuating circumstances, but still, very impressive. Bought for $180k in 1990. Flash forward a couple of decades when you hope it would be paid off. Nope, in 2006, the house was encumbered with a $1million first (variable) and a $305k second (variable) courtesy of WaMu. Taken back by the bank (and coming soon!) on Jan. 11 of this year.
This is just one of many recent foreclosures you can search for at www.sfgate.com/homes . Color commentary courtesy of PropertyShark and redfin.

9   pkennedy   2010 Mar 2, 8:19am  

@Leigh

Almost every country had a run on property values. People around the world were grabbing up property left and right in all countries it seemed. Even 3rd world countries had some major runs.

The number of people effected was massive. The number of industries massive as well. I'm sure many companies relied on income from companies indirectly related.

The whole "car" issue was massive in itself and it's been teetering for a long long time as well. I got the impression that many industries were just looking for any reason and/or time to dump their bad news and become lost in the larger numbers of the other larger companies toppling over. If you're a big company and you've been having some issues, what better time than now to dump people and restructure? Not only that, instead of new agencies jumping on them, they get a 3rd page little article one day on their woes and then they're gone.

10   EBGuy   2010 Mar 2, 9:05am  

Here's a nice little trend for Lafayette:
Month Foreclosures
----------------------
Aug. 1
Sep. 1
Oct. 3
Nov. 3
Dec. 3
Jan. 4
I'd say some pent up supply is comin' down the pike; hey, every little bit helps.

11   EBGuy   2010 Mar 2, 9:11am  

Leigh, Here's some good suggestions for free outings in the Bay Area courtesy of Broke Guy Day Care. For more East Bay activities, I'd throw in Totland, Dreamland, and (for an element of danger) Adventure Playground. Good luck with the road trip -- yikes!

12   MarkInSF   2010 Mar 3, 3:13am  

The total number of housing units in the State of California is reported as 13.393 million with 63.1 jumbo loans per 1000 units. There are 845,792 active jumbo loans with 6.1% in foreclosure; 2.7% 30 – 59 days past due; 1.8% 60 to 89 past due with 9.5% 90 days past due. The percentage of adjustable rate mortgages is 91.6%

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/regional_outreach/2010/an100202.html

20% of jumbo loans in California are delinquent or already in the foreclosure process. NONE, I repeat NONE of these jumbo loans are in the fortress areas of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, or Santa Clara. Those places are special! And besides, even if this upcoming flood of sales causes housing prices to fall in second-tier areas (highly unlikely, this is the BAY AREA!), that will have absolutely no effect on the fortress areas. None whatsoever. It's up, up, up!! Buy now of be priced out forever!

13   MAGA   2010 Mar 3, 3:17am  

I drive between Millbrae and San Mateo on the weekends and am amazed at all the open house and for sale signs that line the road.

When the price of Bay Area housing drops to less then $100 a square foot, I might be interested.

14   LandShark2847   2010 Mar 3, 9:39am  

those "for sale" signs are hooks with worms waiting for suckers to bite

15   Leigh   2010 Mar 3, 11:35pm  

Thanks, EBGuy, what a fun blog to read. Looks we will have a fun filled time. I was a bit nervous since it was my first time there with kiddos but nervous no more. They both will sleep well each night after all that fun! And I will too!

16   samsmom   2010 Mar 8, 3:28am  

So are these people with default jumbo loans living mortgage free while the govt props up the banks to keep these foreclosures off the market??

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