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So....Is the housing market in Southern CA really recovering????


               
2010 Apr 25, 12:23pm   7,083 views  34 comments

by Shiller   follow (0)  

I am still a housing bear but EVERYONE believes that that housing market is recovering for good. They are all planning to buy ASAP. WTH?!?!?

Even after I show them the horrifying graphs of the upcoming defaults and ARM resets (starting this year until 2013), they don't see it affecting home prices. OMG!!!

I am also a bear in the economy and think we are headed for a multi-year depression. Also, interest rates are probably going to rise to double-digits due to inflation.

What is your opinion on the housing market in SoCal???? Am I the only crazy one that believes that we still have a long way to fall? Obviously, Patrick himself is on my side.

#housing

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26   4X   @   2010 Apr 27, 3:05pm  

E-man says

@ robertoaribas,
I guess you’re azrob00. I apologize if you’re not him. It appears that gsiderius did his due diligence and was willing to take the risk. Yes, he might lose all of his equity and more in the near future, and his American dream might turn into his worse nightmare. He has no one to blame but himself. I congratulated him on his accomplishment because it’s a big leap of faith. I don’t know how the housing market will perform in the short-term, but it would likely be up in 15 to 30 years from today IMO.
If Jimmy is uncomfortable with the housing market in OC right now, he shouldn’t be buying. Jimmy, you might want to take robertoaribas’ advice and move to AZ. It’s really affordable there.

Maybe the market will be up in 30 years but he will have missed the opportunity to save a few additional pennies if he had of waited for his current property to drop from 500k closer to 400k - 475K. Over 30 years the interest on 50-100k can add up.

27   4X   @   2010 Apr 27, 3:17pm  

Jimmy says

As long as gsiderius is happy with his purchase then that’s all that matters. He did extensive research before buying the home and came to the conclusion that buying is better than renting. Good for him.
For me, it’s not about affordability. There are a lot of homes selling for $350K in OC that I can afford. In my opinion, it just does not make any sense to buy a home that will put you in deep debt and can potentially drain all your wealth. Everyone I know that bought in 2005-2006 are hurting and are on the verge of walking from their mortgage. The numbers are telling me that mostly everyone (especially in SoCal) that buys today will eventually be in the same situation as the people that bought in 2006.

Happiness does not equate to good business decisions, only satisfied spouses who pressure their loved ones to buy NOW. Only time will tell how much money will be won or lost with his purchase. The people on these threads are not looking for happiness, we are looking to dialogue with folks who have a bit of knowledge on the markets direction and how to avoid the blunders of those who purchased in 2006.

Gsiderius purchase will bring about many comments about how now is not the time to buy because that is the purpose of patrick.net....to educate those of us who'd rather purchase than rent.

Let me ask: Why would you buy in a market that we know is filled with negative indicators? Do you think the market will come zooming back to 2006 prices or slowly crawl back over the next 20 years only to incurr another bubble?

28   Shiller   @   2010 Apr 27, 3:28pm  

4X says

Jimmy says

As long as gsiderius is happy with his purchase then that’s all that matters. He did extensive research before buying the home and came to the conclusion that buying is better than renting. Good for him.

For me, it’s not about affordability. There are a lot of homes selling for $350K in OC that I can afford. In my opinion, it just does not make any sense to buy a home that will put you in deep debt and can potentially drain all your wealth. Everyone I know that bought in 2005-2006 are hurting and are on the verge of walking from their mortgage. The numbers are telling me that mostly everyone (especially in SoCal) that buys today will eventually be in the same situation as the people that bought in 2006.

Happiness does not equate to good business decisions, only satisfied spouses who pressure their loved ones to buy NOW. Only time will tell how much money will be won or lost with his purchase. The people on these threads are not looking for happiness, we are looking to dialogue with folks who have a bit of knowledge on the markets direction and how to avoid the blunders of those who purchased in 2006.
Gsiderius purchase will bring about many comments about how now is not the time to buy because that is the purpose of patrick.net….to educate those of us who’d rather purchase than rent.
Let me ask: Why would you buy in a market that we know is filled with negative indicators? Do you think the market will come zooming back to 2006 prices or slowly crawl back over the next 20 years only to incurr another bubble?

To some people (including some men), buying a home is not always about making the best business decision. I know quite a lot of men that don't care if they lose money for buying a house too early (or so they say). As long as they are "happy" with their decision, then that is all that matters. You and I on the other hand think more about the financial consequences of buying a house at the wrong time. That is the purpose of this forum like you mentioned.

29   4X   @   2010 Apr 27, 3:55pm  

Jimmy says

4X says


Jimmy says

As long as gsiderius is happy with his purchase then that’s all that matters. He did extensive research before buying the home and came to the conclusion that buying is better than renting. Good for him.
For me, it’s not about affordability. There are a lot of homes selling for $350K in OC that I can afford. In my opinion, it just does not make any sense to buy a home that will put you in deep debt and can potentially drain all your wealth. Everyone I know that bought in 2005-2006 are hurting and are on the verge of walking from their mortgage. The numbers are telling me that mostly everyone (especially in SoCal) that buys today will eventually be in the same situation as the people that bought in 2006.

Happiness does not equate to good business decisions, only satisfied spouses who pressure their loved ones to buy NOW. Only time will tell how much money will be won or lost with his purchase. The people on these threads are not looking for happiness, we are looking to dialogue with folks who have a bit of knowledge on the markets direction and how to avoid the blunders of those who purchased in 2006.
Gsiderius purchase will bring about many comments about how now is not the time to buy because that is the purpose of patrick.net….to educate those of us who’d rather purchase than rent.
Let me ask: Why would you buy in a market that we know is filled with negative indicators? Do you think the market will come zooming back to 2006 prices or slowly crawl back over the next 20 years only to incurr another bubble?

To some people (including some men), buying a home is not always about making the best business decision. I know quite a lot of men that don’t care if they lose money for buying a house too early (or so they say). As long as they are “happy” with their decision, then that is all that matters. You and I on the other hand think more about the financial consequences of buying a house at the wrong time. That is the purpose of this forum like you mentioned.

Right, they make emotional purchases based on the fact that homes have been marketed as part of the American dream for the past 100 years. Their wives pressure them and even some husbands put pressure on their wives to support their dream of ownership....in the end they lose lots of money because they dont pay attention to the market indicators.

No one is perfect, but I am attempting to stop making emotional purchases based on the marketing schemes of some guy on the receiving end. Gis*** should of stepped up and did the same.

30   4X   @   2010 Apr 27, 3:58pm  

robertoaribas says

you do know that people buying in 2006 were happy the day the bought the home right? I don’t remember too many people crying when the “won” that lottery at the new home builders, or beat out the other offers on the house… That is till today, they are all crying now!
We’ll see how happy that person is if the home falls to say $375K.

Right, now they want a handout or assistance which puts pressure on the President to act or risk the chance of being labled "indecisive" for taking no action while the market drops. These tax credits and bailouts are all a game to show that government is doing its part to help the people.

But the people dont want help, they want expensive homes for free and to have their mortgages bailed out.

31   Shiller   @   2010 Apr 27, 3:58pm  

Most of the people I know that bought in 2006 expected to make a lot of money from their purchase. I'm sure none of them did any research and they all thought home prices will continue to go up to infinite. Most of them deserve what they got in my opinion.

2nd Round of Mortgage Defaults
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3g6Yr5S7cg&feature=related

32   Tank   @   2010 Apr 28, 7:19am  

4X says

Jimmy says


4X says

Jimmy says

As long as gsiderius is happy with his purchase then that’s all that matters. He did extensive research before buying the home and came to the conclusion that buying is better than renting. Good for him.
For me, it’s not about affordability. There are a lot of homes selling for $350K in OC that I can afford. In my opinion, it just does not make any sense to buy a home that will put you in deep debt and can potentially drain all your wealth. Everyone I know that bought in 2005-2006 are hurting and are on the verge of walking from their mortgage. The numbers are telling me that mostly everyone (especially in SoCal) that buys today will eventually be in the same situation as the people that bought in 2006.


Happiness does not equate to good business decisions, only satisfied spouses who pressure their loved ones to buy NOW. Only time will tell how much money will be won or lost with his purchase. The people on these threads are not looking for happiness, we are looking to dialogue with folks who have a bit of knowledge on the markets direction and how to avoid the blunders of those who purchased in 2006.
Gsiderius purchase will bring about many comments about how now is not the time to buy because that is the purpose of patrick.net….to educate those of us who’d rather purchase than rent.
Let me ask: Why would you buy in a market that we know is filled with negative indicators? Do you think the market will come zooming back to 2006 prices or slowly crawl back over the next 20 years only to incurr another bubble?

To some people (including some men), buying a home is not always about making the best business decision. I know quite a lot of men that don’t care if they lose money for buying a house too early (or so they say). As long as they are “happy” with their decision, then that is all that matters. You and I on the other hand think more about the financial consequences of buying a house at the wrong time. That is the purpose of this forum like you mentioned.

Right, they make emotional purchases based on the fact that homes have been marketed as part of the American dream for the past 100 years. Their wives pressure them and even some husbands put pressure on their wives to support their dream of ownership….in the end they lose lots of money because they dont pay attention to the market indicators.
No one is perfect, but I am attempting to stop making emotional purchases based on the marketing schemes of some guy on the receiving end. Gis*** should of stepped up and did the same.

For some reason the 'gsiderius' name isn't working anymore. Anyway, same person here.

4X, thanks for the feedback thus far, but that's BS trying to give me marital advice. I'm more than happy to discuss the current housing market (the main point for this blog) and listen to various opinions. The fact of the matter is that at no time did I say anything like:

1. The market is booming. Buy now.
2. I don't see any negative indicators or potential for the property to drop in value

I simply was sympathizing with Jimmy on dealing with the Southern California Realtards and other real estate cheerleaders. Nothing else. In our specific situation, we found a home that worked for us right now and that we were able to negate some of the downside risk. We have multifamily investments that are the source of our real estate income. So, this property isn't our investment nestegg like most out there. You clearly don't know me, my family or anything beyond what I have provided you. Seriously, that was pretty JV on your part.

E-Man, appreciate the support. I still look forward to following the ARM charts and all other industry info even though I'm no longer in the market.

33   4X   @   2010 Apr 28, 2:04pm  

@GSIDERIUS

Good try, but you will have to cut deeper to get to my sensitive spot. Obviously with other investments you have it under control so keep it moving.

Keep your dream and your hope...I will take reality and facts.

34   Â¥   @   2010 Apr 28, 3:23pm  

Well, the good news is that if we get a second leg down GSIDERIUS can walk away from the loan w/o getting taxed on the income. Don't refi and you're golden in California, too.

Expires at the end of 2012. Maybe the gummint knows something we don't.

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