patrick.net

I am a bit more a fan of Robata Grill.

I love robata. Do you want to comment in Astrid's blog?

Claire Says:

> Just had a realtor at the door wanting to know
> if I wanted to sell my house - told him it’s a
> rental (now I’m hoping he’s not going to contact
> the owners - I don’t want them deciding to sell
> at the minute).

As a renter you always want to tell Realtors at the door that the owner is a relative who NEVER plans to sell (nothing is worse than renting a place that is for sale)...

@HidingintheBronx: ...ahh, Scotland, my all-time favourite country :-)
Wierdly enough, every time I've been to Scotland the weather has been wonderful.

Except for the time I had to wait in Glasgow one winter's day, for the train to Ardrossan (for the ferry to Arran) when it was a staggering -12C (about 10 degrees f) during the day. Other than that...blissful.
Wherabouts does your brother live?

@LILLL: LOL!
I'm working on the 'quantity over quality' model atm when saving stuff on Zip. I reckon of the 100+ places I'm tracking (some on spreadsheet now), a few will still be availalble when i want to start looking to buy in Q32007. I'd like to document what happens to them all during the long dark tea-time of the soul over winter 2006 and beyond. I'm not actually thinking of buying it, especially at 1.2 mill. 450K, maybe.....
I chose it because its within commuting distance for the husband, and we actually like small - there's only the two of us, plus cats, so don't need much over 1500 sq ft. Plus, a 10K lot is a nice size for L.A.

I'll be sure to monitor the goings-on there now!
Especially if she's snotty :-)

sure Peter P. Post the URL. All I find is Astrid's mish mash.

Claire,

We get plenty of soliciting newly minted "realtors" here in Tam Valley McMansionville hell.

I always tell them "no, I'm not looking to sell. I really built this home to leave to my kids".

sure Peter P. Post the URL. All I find is Astrid’s mish mash.

greencrabs.blogspot.com

astrid Says:

LOL! Great news. Maybe I can rope my boyfriend in for some property blogging now. (Once his precious Tigers play out their season).

I have some more here. The numbers across the board are very bad, but I'm just mentioning the worst of the worst. It makes for great drama!

So... let's see...

In January of 2005, there were approximately 46 active ATTACHED listings (condos/townhomes, usually) for the following cities in Contra Costa County:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez/Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rossmoor, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

As or today for those same cities (according to ziprealty) there are 930
active ATTACHED listings.

That's 1922% increase in inventory for that period (about 19 months).

In August 05, it was 300. In August of 06, 940. So YOY about 210% increase in inventory.

For anyone who cares, the YOY increase for Detached (from the other post) is about 147%. There were around 804 Detached properties in those cities on the market in August of 05, vs 1902 in Aug of '06.

Pending Detached 8/05 vs 8/06: -44% Attached: -50%
Sales Detached 8/05 vs 8/06: -25% Attached: -25%

So consider two things in regards to the above:

1) Inventory has jumped 147% and 210% YOY but sales are down 25% for both. Oops.

2) Look at Pendings. -44% and -50%. These will likely CLOSE in September. So I wonder what those september numbers look like. Probably pretty painful.

YOY Sales were below 2005 levels from April onward. However, inventories have been AT LEAST 100% over 2005 levels for the same month.

August 06 PRICE is down 3% YOY, not adjusting for inflation.

In response to the Sticky Prices arguments in this thread, first, a definition:

Sticky prices
Petrol-pump PRICES do not change every time the oil price changes, and holiday prices and standard hotel rates are fixed for months. Sticky prices are slow to change in response to changes in SUPPLY or DEMAND. As a result there is, at least temporarily, DISEQUILIBRIUM in the market. The causes of stickiness include MENU COSTS, inadequate information, consumers’ dislike of frequent price changes and long-term contracts with fixed prices. Prices change only when the cost of leaving them unchanged exceeds the expense of adjusting them. In FINANCIAL MARKETS, prices move all the time because the cost of quoting the wrong price can be huge. In other industries, the penalty may be much less severe. Small disequilibria in, say, the pricing of hotel rooms will not make much difference. So hotel prices are often sticky.

Second, I have only to look through my stack of CCAR Update newsletters to see evidence that RE is very sticky. Inventory (supply) has been going UP UP UP constantly since Jan of 05. Usually in the double-digits. But price was ALSO going up during much of that period even when adjusting for inflation. Price has only very recently started to level off according to these stats, at least 18 months after inventory levels began to rise dramatically.

That's the exact definition of sticky.

Here's a creepy new gimmick builders are using to move their overpriced McAlbatrosses: hiring actors to "live" & interact in model homes.

Centex HomePlay actors
http://rprclients.com/CTX-06201HomePlay/CTX-06201HomePlay.html

MODEL HOMES MAY NEVER BE THE SAME. Most people are familiar with model homes as a way of showcasing a new neighborhood. But do model homes reveal how a home really lives? They do now! Welcome to HomePlay, Centex Homes’ improvisational theatrical model home experience. During HomePlay, actors representing a family will interact with each other as if the new Trellis Model Home at RiverPark were their actual home. Our HomePlay family will be taking part in all the happenings that could take place in a real household. The family will interact with potential homebuyers in BOTH ENGLISH AND SPANISH.

Because this is an innovative, improvisational experience we can’t predict how this will unfold. But we do expect this to express how a new home at Trellis can be lived in. Join us on October 14th for HomePlay at the Trellis Model Home.

Oh, the satiric/comedic possibilities are endless...

Here’s a creepy new gimmick builders are using to move their overpriced McAlbatrosses: hiring actors to “live” & interact in model homes.

How about playing some acted murder / who-did-it type game as well? Potential buyers will have to roam around the entire model homes to find clues. The winner will have the right to buy the overpriced crap.

Even better: how about we form our own troupe of BubblePlay actors and tour open houses (uninvited of course)?

(courtesy SDFotBotD from Ben Jones' blog):

“I told you we shouldn’t have bought now…”
“How are we going to pay the mortgage when the rate adjusts?”
“…the nice people on the Blog said ‘Wait’, but noooo…”
“What does ‘negative equity’ mean?”
“…buy now, or be priced out forever, you said!”
“The mortgage broker won’t return our phone calls!”
“I think we should see other people…”

HARM Says:

Even better: how about we form our own troupe of BubblePlay actors and tour open houses (uninvited of course)?

Can I get to play Casey Serin?

Can I get to play Casey Serin?

Only if I get to be David Lereah!

I want to play the crazy squirrel feeding lady.

Only if I get to be David Lereah!

That would be an interesting script - a conversation between Serin and Lereah, with the crazy squirrel lady running around in the background, and maybe add in a few more characters:

- that "suzanne researched this" Century 21 couple
- Bob Toll
- Gary Watts
- Larry Nussbaum
- Leslie Appleton-Young

The Awful Truth (I hope you don't mind me calling you TAT from now on),

Thanks! Sounds better and better. If this keeps up, I might have a shot at buying that high up Blackhawk manor with Diablo views in 2012. Maybe even 2010 if DinOR migrate south and start his emcee career in the pricy parts of Danville.

FAB says:

"It is scary when my sister tells me about SF girls in their 30’s that have six figure credit card debt who are hoping to marry someone who pays it off…"

That is scary indeed. I'd seriously reconsider marrying anyone in debt unless they have a very good excuse (medical emergency or recent educational expenses or bad luck on a good business plan). People who are still irresponsible with money in their thirties don't sound like good life partners. Marrying a spendthrift is much less conducive to future happiness than marrying someone homely or someone with a lowly (but honest) job.

HARM,

I'm imagining a situational comedy, a sort of cross between MADtv and Curb Your Enthusiasm.

Don't you just feel for this guy? He must have some kind of house in Portland for this rent.......

"I owned this house for the past 2 1/2 and stuck with a (5 yr)pre-payment penalty if I sell the house early. Should I rent it to avoid the pre-payment penalty or sell it? Got a new job and must relocate to a somewhat depress town. We want to keep the house as an investment but don't want to let it sit. We can rent it to qualified renters with minimum rental payment of $3,000/mo. Is this a reasonable rate?
Location: Portland, Oregon"

"Don’t you just feel for this guy?"

No! If he bought in early 2004 he can still afford to sell for a profit and he's just greedily holding out for more upside. If he had agreed to extremely onerous pre-payment penalties then he's a reckless dumbass. Asking for $3K/month in Portland (I assume his house is very plain vanilla) is greedy and unrealistic.

I don't have any sympathy for greedy dumbasses. This one can go rot in his "somewhat depress town."

(PS - I know your question was asked in jest, but greedy dumbass RE specuvestors really piss me off today)

Allah Says:

What area are you talkng about? Where are these prices going up? I gave Randy an example of one place where it is not sticky (click here)….and although this is NOT the only non-sticky area, it was just easily available to prove my point, and since I don’t see Randy answering back, I can only assume that I’ve made my point.

Allah be Praised, I am pulling this info directly from the Monthly Statistics page of the Contra Costa Update. Everything I've said is true. Prices DID go up YOY in nearly all months even when adjusting for inflation at the same time that inventory was rising dramatically. As I said, it seems with August that trend may have finally flattened or reversed.

I'd scan this stuff for all of you but it says it's copyrighted. You may be able to call your local association and ask if they publish these numbers and if you can get them.

The very important thing you are missing with that link you pointed me to is you don't know what inventory looked like *preceding* those price falls. Was inventory gaining double-digit for the two years prior *while* prices were still going up? Further, we also don't know what's going on (hard numbers) in the whole of Sac. While some are taking a bath, others might still be appreciating. (All that said, there is no doubt in my mind that Sac will take a brutal beating overall).

You see some people taking a bath now, but the supply might have dictated it two years ago and it's only now starting to happen. That's stickiness. :-(

goober,

I'll probably hold my nose and vote for Hilary if I absolutely have to, but in that case I might just decide voting for a decent Green Party candidate if they ever bother to field someone reasonable and pragmatic. I will be working against Clinton II every step of the way - maybe even up to supporting a McGovernesque splinter candidate that ensure another Republican in office.

And then I'll work extra hard to get that Australian or Canadian citizenship. If Bush Clinton Bush Clinton ?Bush? is the best this country can do, I don't want to be a part of this country much longer.

Doug H/astrid,

Uh, I think you can stay at the Benson Hotel for 3K a month! Nobody is getting 3K a month. Our rents are so anemic it's ridiculous. Why doesn't dude get on C/L for some real laughs. With an NAAVLP 3K will put you in some of the finest neighborhoods in Goose Hollow, "The Pearl Dist." (which is a total fabrication w/no historic precedent btw) or even Lake Oswego. In fact I don't believe I've EVER seen a 3K rent in Drizzletown, let alone it being a standard. This guy related to Casey by any chance?

Sale prices going up could indicate qualitative differences in the kinds of house sold. It doesn't really matter. If there's tons of supply and only a tiny amount of demand, prices will come down sooner or later...and I'm patient.

Dinor,

I can say with complete confidence that the most regulated industry in the United States of America is the nuclear industry. I work at a nuclear power plant and I can't take a dump without having the paper I used to wipe looked over for mistakes. A tree must die before I can perform the simplest tasks such as turning a light on! I can't blame the government for the oversight. Making a mistake could cost hundreds of billions of dollars (lawsuits).

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/apa/219826329.html

Took 3 minutes to find this McAlbatross for under 2K a month. I could dredge up more but what's the point?

nuttyneutron,

Well pardon the sh@t out of me! I stand corrected. O.K, I'm in the SECOND most regulated industry.

Just kidding, (most of us here definitely appreciate what you do and I'd say overall we're pretty pro nuke/innovation here. The difference is the worst thing that can possibly happen to you (besides exposure to radiation that will leave your corpse horridly disfigured) is that you'll get fired. You'll still get your last paycheck.

We don't necessarily have to be found guilty of anything to be drummed out of the industry in disgrace, shackled for life w/legal fees you can never hope to recover, barred for life oh..... and fined more than you've ever made. When the NASD is done w/you exposure to lethal levels of radiation is starting to look pretty f@ckin' good. Other than that we're pretty lenient.

Jon,

At the risk of sounding very vulgar, I suggest we hire Mr. and Mrs. Serin for your production, along with Casey's former cellmate - white power Mike. You can be Tek Jansen.

Last line of the video, Mrs. Serin swoons in your arm and say "Tek, I bet you've had hundreds of girlfriends!"

As a matter of fact (and I can't believe I forgot this nutty) if you're under ANY kind of investigation whatsoever you're considered "radioactive". As in no one wants to be in the same lobby w/you let alone give you a job.

No matter your client connections or how much you've made over the years! You're damaged goods and good luck in your new career.

Dinor,

I only slightly glow in the dark:) I was not trying to goad you. I started work 18 months ago and am still amazed at the complete crap I have to deal with. I have been observing the RE industry and am confident that we are in a long slide. I will try and stay out of trouble with a new house, which I am looking for. I just can't find one at a reasonable price.

You are right about the whole "radioactive" part if under investigation, hell I have to report traffic tickets within 48 hours to my security department for them to reevaluate my status for "unescorted access". God what did I get myself into!

Allah,

I gave Randy an example of one place where it is not sticky (click here)….and although this is NOT the only non-sticky area, it was just easily available to prove my point, and since I don’t see Randy answering back, I can only assume that I’ve made my point.

Yes, you've made your point. You don't understand the difference between sticky prices and hard landing. I feel confident categorically stating that real estate (both residential and commercial) are sticky, as the term applies to economics.

That is simply because real estate is _not_ an example of a *perfectly competitive* market. You invoked Economics 101 earlier. Perhaps a refresher is in line. Only perfectly competitive markets can have efficient prices (in other words, not-sticky).

(And apologies to anyone who thinks I'm being too harsh or that I am merely being baited again.)

DinOR,

You are the man! The fool posted the message on a board and I'm using your link to bait the sucker.....then slap him like a 419 scammer. LOL
Thanks, I'll let you know if he "bites".

HITB,

I thought it was more like; wok-a, wok-a, wah?

Personally I find the thought of casey in an adult film revolting. And it’s not
because I’m particularly down on adult films. (Bow-chika-bow-wow).

Sounds like someones been watching Red vs. Blue

Doug H,

Were you talking about the Craigslist poster in Portland with a 4,600+ sq. ft. house (just reduced 64k btw) that is for rent/sale/lease/?

Allah,

Were are arguing semantics. Sticky is a specific economic term, and it is not what you are describing. You can reference any intro micro economic text to find the specific definition of sticky. It's no different this time than any other time. What may be different this time is the scale, scope, and psychology that affects the RE market. But I assure you basic micro economic mechanics will remain nicely intact.

Randy,

I am lost as well. I am illiterate in economy, so I may be wrong.

Sticky to me meant "slow speed of change". Just now I checked Wikipedia and it defines it as "a variable that is resistant to change".

Hard / soft landing to me means "how much of a change".

So if prices are sticky it will take a while to reach hard landing, if at all. Low speed, lot of distance and hence more time. But Sacto seems to be heading towards a hard landing pretty fast. So at least there, it is not sticky.

Rest of the country and BA in particular, could be a completely different story. The job market in BA seems to have more strength then most RE bears think. Even then, I don't think it is going to be as sticky as it was during early nineties. I actually think once it's done, most people won't be calling it as sticky behavior at all. But that's speculation from my part.

Unless, sticky means less volatility. So the change may happen fast, but the slope will be much smoother than daily gyrations of the stock market.

Different people have different definitions of soft/ hard landings/ crash/ correction etc. Maybe we all are saying the same thing, but using different words due to different levels of theoretical knowledge.

StuckInBA,

shouldn't you be the expert in stickiness? :P

sticky means that prices may take months or years to descend (or ascend i suppose), unlike the stock market, where valuations change in a matter of hours or days... houses also tend to be unable to lose as much value as stocks, barring natural catastrophes, due to inherent value of land and land use. for this reason, many ordinary people are drawn to residential property as an investment vehicle after being wiped out or duped in stocks, as they can 'understand' it, they live in one, and they believe it can't lose much value (limited downside, unlike shares/derivatives), and even 'that it can only go up (at 10% a year indefinitely)', because somebody told them, and there's a graph to prove it over the last 100 years... hence the saying 'safe as houses'

DinOR said:
"Were you talking about the Craigslist poster in Portland with a 4,600+ sq. ft. house (just reduced 64k btw) that is for rent/sale/lease/?"

He didn't say....just posted what I quoted. I'm waiting in the bushes for his reponse and will slap him with your link to the 4,600 bad boy if he gives me a chance. Hell, I think I'll slap him anyway....for being stupid.

I know nothing about the rental market in the Rose City and only what BA folks have posted here but it seemed TOTALLY out of the question for anyone to get that kind of rent up there.

More to come if he takes the bait......