patrick.net

surfer-x Says:
@HARM, cat and dogs are currently living together at my pathetic rental.

it's starting already... maybe if everyone gets a dog and a cat, it will bring the crash forward! let's try it. (i understand they get on better if they're introduced while quite young...)

try to convince a bunch of Southern Baptists that the Bible is wrong and the world is not 2,500 years old (or was created in 7 days)

i think it's more like 6,000 years, including adding up the reigns of the judges... let's not forget methuselah et al in our calculations...

it's interesting how archaic middle eastern folk stories can easily substitute for science textbooks and enquiry...

That was an foreclosure rates about foreclosure rates up 319% this year...

San Diego County had 4,069 properties in some stage of foreclosure for the quarter that ended in September, compared with 970 properties for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 319 percent. Riverside had 4,403 such properties for the most recent quarter, versus 1,297 for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 239 percent.

Both San Diego and Riverside counties showed much higher rates of increase of properties in a stage of foreclosure than both the state and the nation. From the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006, the rate of increase was 104 percent in California and 25 percent for the entire country.

Alan Gin, professor of economics at the University of San Diego, said Thursday he was not surprised by the sharp increase in foreclosure activity in the county. He blamed the trend on the region's high cost of housing.

While regional home prices are among the country's highest, wages have not kept pace, Gin said.

"People here had to devote a larger percentage of income to housing payments," he said. "Therefore, they are more stressed and more likely to default."

gosh, it takes a uni professor to learn you that. wait a minute, wasn't david lereah some sort of eminent academic in a former life?

woops, screwed it...
+ 'interesting article about foreclosure rates'
- whatever garbage went in

yes, a very conservative 25%, i'd say... that would be my worst case projection to err on the side of caution...

This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

On the other hand, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery :P

ajh:

http://www.google.com/apis/maps/documentation/

or, if you are using the same cities each time, take a map graphic with city names, and use php or something to add the text to the image.

Oh my...

This will be a September to remember...

For the following cities in Contra Costa County: Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rosmoo, San Ramon and Walnut Creek:

Detached Pending Sales:
09/05: 392
09/06: 195 (-50%)

Attached Pending Sales:
09/05: 193
09/06: 73 (-62%)

Detached Sales Closed:
09/05: 491
09/06: 322 (-34%)

Attached Sales Closed:
09/05: 208
09/06: 131 (-37%)

Average Sold Price

Detached: -1% (YOY)
Attached: +4% (YOY)

Detached Active listings:
09/05: 980
09/06: 1930 (+97%) YOY

Attached Active Listings:
09/05: 411
09/06: 934 (+127%) YOY

My bullshit analysis which is not investment advice:

First of all, rate of growth for inventory levels is slowing. It was going up in the six months prior around 100 - 250 units per month. Now it's going up very little (0 - 30 units per month). Has inventory peaked? Or are sellers deciding to pull out and wait for the next upswing? What will happen when the rates adjust? Personally, if I see another big upsurge in inventory trends, that means the panic sell-off will have begun. Will it happen? Who knows...

According to these numbers there are about 13 months of condo inventory and 6 months of residential out there. Amazingly, however, condo prices were still positive (4%) YOY and selling for the ridiculous average sale price of 484,022!

Lacking in these numbers is Average Asking Price. That would be nice to know. What are people getting for their money these days? An extra bedroom? Did that condo come with a Jaguar? Or 20k back at closing? Unfortunately, I don't know.

I think if inventory has peaked then it's now up to the other shoes to drop: out of work RE related people, underwater people, loan resets. crap, imagine if we had an earthquake right now!

I will try and call up some RE buddies and see what the man on the ground is seeing.

Hiding,

If that passbook savings account is in the six digits, many fashionably dressed SF women in their 30s would like to speak to you now.

re: Casey - I thought he was for real, now I just don't know - he does seem to be on schedule for your insanity defense theory.

ajh Says:
Does anyone know if there’s software around that allows you to turn tabular data into the likes of the “Map of Misery” that came out a month or so ago?

Microsoft Map? (Does it still exist?)
MapInfo (expensive)

Someone has lent casey $3000 dollars. He is going to use it to buy a fixer upper.

Isn't that how all his trouble started? The mark of an enthusiastic extrovert is that they don't learn from experience. They are always optimistic, and even when repeatedly punished in studies, they continue to do the same thing that brought on the punishment. A friend of mine who attends seminars like a junkie and believes everything he is told is just like that...

Microsoft Map
Default location: \Program Files\Common Files\Microsoft Shared\Datamap

Automation for Microsoft Map works when Microsoft Map is embedded in Microsoft Excel. It will not work when Microsoft Map is embedded in other applications.

+ Microsoft MapPoint on the web, a web-enabled mapping thingy...

SP:

We don't count the two digits after the decimal point!

Hiding,

Those fashionably dressed women regret to tell you that they're not that into you anymore.

SP,

If you can afford to pay off a hundred women's CC balances, I think that entitled you a hundred wives...

Oh, wait! Is polygamy legal?

shitstain Says:

> I’m wondering, has Casey mentioned his
> wife’s name? Could be useful for this:
> http://www.ccr.saccounty

I didn't dig around and look for a marriage license, but since I have posted that the whole Casey page seems fake I thought I would do a quick database search to try and find him. It looks like there is a real Casey K, Serin born 9/82 (back when I was an undergrad managing apartments) living in the Sacramento area. He lives with a Galina Serin that may be his wife.

ConfusedRenter Says:

> The can’t beat inflation argument isn’t relevant.
> Inflation affects renters and homeowners a like.
> Does that mean a renter loses 100% + even
> more due to inflation?
> Let’s through out the inflation argument pls.

When homes increase in value more than inflation the prices get ahead of what people earn so they will drop in value to get back to the historical multiples (everything reverts to the mean).
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/OFHEO-NorCal.html
There are still a lot of people waiting for inflation to get the value of their Beanie Baby collection up over the $100 each they paid and it may be a long wait with the average price on eBay still under $5.

If I buy a condo in my neighborhood for $1.5mm putting $500K cash down I will be lucky to sell the place in three years for over a million loosing my entire $500K down payment. I’ll also loose at least $75K in CD interest on the $500K, have sale costs of about $80K and pay about $100K more than my rent in interest and HOA dues over the three years. In SF my rent will go up by about 1-2%% per year (limited to 60% of CPI under rent control). In other markets without rent control rent has nothing to do with inflation and will go up based on supply and demand.

Watch Casey on TV:

http://www.kron4.com/global/Category.asp?c=85671

Burning Down the House

http://tinyurl.com/rhrg7

I think the following lyric is most relevant to the housing implosion-

"No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin yet"

The video-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJqnWBnCdv8

astrid Says:

> If that passbook savings account is in the six digits,
> many fashionably dressed SF women in their 30s
> would like to speak to you now.

Then Jon Says:

> That’s awesome. Why can’t I meet more women like
> this? Maybe I need to “casually” mention when I
> move money from this investment to that. Does that
> really get women going as much as I wish it didn’t?

astrid is right on in that noting gets a single woman in her 30’s going like a six figure (or bigger) cash balance (most women in their 20’s are not as interested in cash and will usually still sleep with the cute poor bartender in a band even if they know that the VC guy hitting on them just got a seven figure bonus).

Jon should try the phone number on the ATM slip trick where you park a couple hundred grand in an account and print a bunch of receipts (or just dig through the trash can outside a Pacific Heights ATM where many lazy rich people have checking accounts with tons of cash) then when you give a girl in her 30’s your number write it on the back of the ATM receipt that “happens” to be the only paper in your pocket…

most women in their 20’s are not as interested in cash and will usually still sleep with the cute poor bartender in a band even if they know that the VC guy hitting on them just got a seven figure bonus

Most people in their 20's are naive. They either think that they can achieve anything (inherited boomer thinking?) or that they do not need anything material.

Rising rents and fewer available apartments have pushed some renters to try bartering for their half of the bill. Among the offers: cleaning, cooking, massage … even sex.

I'm sorry to hear about your Mom, if she wasn't still eating so much corn I'd ass ram her and leave a $20 on the counter top, but there is such a line and I don't feel like waiting.

Still confused?

Oi! Peter! There's a big difference between "thinking you can achieve anything" and "thinking you deserve anything"!

On a side note, anyone have a data feed with dates, prices, and square footage for the BA? (Am curious what a 3D surface plot would show.)

Jon,

If you and I both move to Nevada, we can work something out.

The biggest relationship bang for the buck is recognizing a future rich (or at least a future high earning & non-cheating) guy. Only the stupid ones or the extreme attractive ones will go after an already successful guy.

I'm not saying everyone can sort the wheat from the chaff. I'm still testing mine out for gluten content.

You're not chaff though.

All,
ConfusedRenter is clearly a troll. Typical MO: anecdotes of stories to scare would-be buyers, like horror stories of rising rents.

"Still confused?"

Love it!

O.K, so now that guys are stooping to rummaging through the trash for an ATM rec. that's sure to impress you gotta hear this one!

They have a number in Los Angeles that girls that are tired of getting hit on can palm off as their own and I'm told it's VERY effective.

(310) 555-5555

You were given this number because the girl that handed it to you (on your insistence) wouldn't go out w/you if you were the LAST man on earth...... etc. etc. Love it!

SFWoman,

Egads! I haven't shown myself to be a future star at the large carnivores exhibit! I'm not advocating an overly materialistic or overly cynical approach to relationships and marriage, I hope I merely warrant a "clear eyed" citation.

It just seems like so many people people jump in with stars in their eyes and end up with totally incompatible people. And marrying a rich cheater is often a rotten deal - worse than marrying an honest average Joe. That's why I'd never advocate stealing other people's spouses - that, and breaking up a family with kids.

It seems to me that women who just want to be maintained by a rich man are no better than courtesans of an earlier era. It's understandable, possibly even preferable when women chose to sacrifice their career to raise a family or help their husband's career advance - but they need to be equal partners with their husbands and have equal commitment to their relationship.

Having said that - I did used to joke about checking out the trophy wife track when I was in college, until someone pointed out that most trophy wives are taller than 5'2".

astrid Says:

> Having said that - I did used to joke about
> checking out the trophy wife track when I
> was in college, until someone pointed out
> that most trophy wives are taller than 5′2″.

The reason that most trophy wives are taller than average is that most successful guys are taller than average (how many CEOs are under 5’6”). Just like most women like to date men taller than they are most men like to date women shorter than they (astrid just needs to look for a shorter successful guy. I’ve noticed that shorter guys get nervous around my 5’9” sister (who is close to 6’ tall in heels)…

For a woman to call her self “trophy wife material” she has to be beautiful (in a classy way) smart (something like an Ivy League degree in Romance Languages with a masters in History from Stanford would be perfect) and a good event planner (be able to host a fun party in the wee hours of the night and still be able to effortlessly put together a picnic for 20 the next day at Polo in the Wine Country)…

SFWoman Says:

> Half the women I know in SF seemed to have
> studied how to find the future rich guys while
> they were undergraduates! (Several of these
> guys are cheaters, with assorted nannies,
> wives’ friends, etc., but if you want to keep
> the lifestyle you deal with it I guess…).

Trying to find a future rich guy is a bad idea since most of these guys will just kick the first wife to the curb when they actually get rich and can do better…

Whenever I hear woman complain about cheaters, drinkers and gamblers I want to scream at them and yell WHY DID YOU PICK A CHEATER, DRINKER OR GAMBELER…

Guys don’t change much and all the guys I know that were cheating, drinking and gambling before they got married are still doing it after they got married.

On a positive note I don’t know a single guy that started cheating or had problems with drinking or gambling start after they got married.

I don’t know if it is genetic (is there a Kennedy gene?) but the guys I know who’s fathers have been married as many times as Liz Taylor are always the guys who get the hookers on the bachelor party weekends or who sleep with the cleaning lady when their wife is out selling girl scout cookies with their daughters…

Jon,

Well, maybe an "above average Joe", but honesty is helpful in a relationship unless one is extremely good at denial and pounded out an advantageous prenup (or managed to avoid prenup entirely) ahead of time.

FAB,

Thanks for the advice. If I ever go on the dating market and decide to aim for someone rich, that's certainly something to keep in mind. Right now, my short and not rich boyfriend is worth a lot to me as is - I'd say at least as much as a dishonest cheater with a networth of $25M, probably more like $50M, depending on how much time he pulls away from fantasy sports to study for LSAT and/or GMAT.

Very stable guy, not one to cat around.

uh-oh, birth control to ginger tom...

there's dads and cads, apparently, according to one study at UM...

I think 100 wives is illegal, because it falls under the category of Cruel and Unusual Punishment.

LOL

HidingintheBronx Says:
For the wives or for the husband?

One Hundred Mothers-in-law. You work it out.

SP

New Thread:Why do realtwhores think we like to see their mugshots on everything?

HidingintheBronx Says: Formal education is just a test of what you know about the professor’s knowledge. You can’t put anything in to it. That would be impossible.

You're equating grades with formal education. In a university setting, you have an opportunity to study whatever useful thing you wish. Compared to normal life, at college the resources are easily available and you have the requisite time to explore them thoroughly.

Most young people (including myself at the time) just do the minimum in college, which consists of learning the professor's selected material. That is a fault of the individual, not of the university or its faculty. Besides, much of the information in undergrad courses is fairly universal, at least in engineering. Newton, Maxwell, Gauss and Ohm didn't lend themselves to interpretation. Courses in history, literature and such are probably more subject to the teacher's perspective, as there is no hard truth.

@FormerAptBroker: I thought the requirements for a trophy wife were hot, young and... uh, hot. If she's got a degree, organizational skills and beauty, then she's not just a trophy. She would be like a BMW 7-series, expensive and flashy but still of good utility. A trophy wife is like a Dodge Viper in a state full of potholes--you know it's just for show.

HARM,

Could you erase all my comments since October 15th, 2006 at 8:59 am.

Sorry about the bother.

Done.