patrick.net

fyi: There's some asshat going around making spurious posts as "Surfer-X" at Housing Panic, Ben's blog, Calculated Risk. This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

Moderate: Your mast is down, the engine is out, and you've lost your rudder.

Distress: There's also a hole in the boat.

Personally, I think if the labor market stays strong, there is a good chance for a soft landing in most places. Agree or disagree?

I am not an econ person. But if the labor market stays strong, there should be soft landing in the most desirable places.

What is a soft landing anyway?

I soft landing is a landing that is soft.

Soft landing is a marketing term with sufficient feel-good factor.

Don’t do this socially, people will hate you and not invite you to parties. The only thing worse than a guy talking about the housing bubble at a party is someone talking about how bad things are in Africa (who also hits you up for money)…

Seriously. That's why I had to stop inviting Bono over. Man, what a drag.

*unlurks*
@Robert Cote

ROTF

@Peter
I want your cat, allergies not withstanding. If you can't keep her anymore, ship 'er over here!
*relurks*

The good news is that people in Seattle make more than half as much as Bay Area people on average so you guys are only “way way” out of line with historical valuation multiples and not “way way the f*uck” out if line with historical valuation multiples like we are in the Bay Area…

Incomes:
SEATTLE-TACOMA-BELLEVUE, WA: $70800
SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA, CA: $97100

Home Prices:
Seattle: $394,950
San Jose: $705,000

Ratio:
Seattle: 5.58x
San Jose: 7.26x

But remember, San Jose is much more special...

I want your cat, allergies not withstanding. If you can’t keep her anymore, ship ‘er over here!

Both of my cats have Canadian ancestry. One was born in Calgary.

I am sure you can find dog-like cats there. Just look for Ragdolls or Siberians.

BTW, Siberians are hypoallergenic.

Soft landing = crash

George Carlin had a skit called "Euphemisms" that pointed out as you describe something with more symbols it softens it. Heck, why not even use the word soft! One example was with war veterans. He started with WWI and described "shell shock" then in WWII that condition was called "Battle Fatigue" with Korea it was "Operational Exhaustion" and Vietnam was "Post Traumatic Stress-Disorder"

symbols = syllables

Peter P Says:

Both of my cats have Canadian ancestry.

So, your cats like hockey and curling, eh? How aboot a trip to Tim Hortons?

@Allah, thanks for the foreclosure links.

This Ventura Star article excerpt was already posted over at Ben's, but is worth repeating"

“Mortgage broker Tino Montelongo said ..there are many people who got used to tapping equity in their homes to get cash, but they cannot refinance because their property isn’t worth more today than when it was purchased six months or a year ago.”

“Others, Montelongo said, might have owned for a long time, refinanced several times and cashed out all their equity. ‘They overextended themselves,’ he said.”

So much for the "all those equity-rich homeowners with paid-off homes will prevent a hard-landing" theory.

@HARM fyi: There’s some asshat going around making spurious posts as “Surfer-X” at Housing Panic, Ben’s blog, Calculated Risk. This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

You are correct, not me. I only post here.

@Surfer-X,

Unfortunately, screen name hijacking is pretty much impossible to defeat at sites that don't require registration. The bulls/trolls are obviously quite nervous and have lots of free time these days, or they wouldn't bother.

I watched Foul Play last night and I'm wondering what the Chevy Chase house boat cost in 1978 and what the bubble pricing is today. Any help is appreciated.

Unfortunately, screen name hijacking is pretty much impossible to defeat at sites that don’t require registration.

Not without digital signatures.

surfer-x Says:
@HARM, cat and dogs are currently living together at my pathetic rental.

it's starting already... maybe if everyone gets a dog and a cat, it will bring the crash forward! let's try it. (i understand they get on better if they're introduced while quite young...)

try to convince a bunch of Southern Baptists that the Bible is wrong and the world is not 2,500 years old (or was created in 7 days)

i think it's more like 6,000 years, including adding up the reigns of the judges... let's not forget methuselah et al in our calculations...

it's interesting how archaic middle eastern folk stories can easily substitute for science textbooks and enquiry...

That was an foreclosure rates about foreclosure rates up 319% this year...

San Diego County had 4,069 properties in some stage of foreclosure for the quarter that ended in September, compared with 970 properties for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 319 percent. Riverside had 4,403 such properties for the most recent quarter, versus 1,297 for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 239 percent.

Both San Diego and Riverside counties showed much higher rates of increase of properties in a stage of foreclosure than both the state and the nation. From the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006, the rate of increase was 104 percent in California and 25 percent for the entire country.

Alan Gin, professor of economics at the University of San Diego, said Thursday he was not surprised by the sharp increase in foreclosure activity in the county. He blamed the trend on the region's high cost of housing.

While regional home prices are among the country's highest, wages have not kept pace, Gin said.

"People here had to devote a larger percentage of income to housing payments," he said. "Therefore, they are more stressed and more likely to default."

gosh, it takes a uni professor to learn you that. wait a minute, wasn't david lereah some sort of eminent academic in a former life?

woops, screwed it...
+ 'interesting article about foreclosure rates'
- whatever garbage went in

yes, a very conservative 25%, i'd say... that would be my worst case projection to err on the side of caution...

This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

On the other hand, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery :P

ajh:

http://www.google.com/apis/maps/documentation/

or, if you are using the same cities each time, take a map graphic with city names, and use php or something to add the text to the image.

Oh my...

This will be a September to remember...

For the following cities in Contra Costa County: Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rosmoo, San Ramon and Walnut Creek:

Detached Pending Sales:
09/05: 392
09/06: 195 (-50%)

Attached Pending Sales:
09/05: 193
09/06: 73 (-62%)

Detached Sales Closed:
09/05: 491
09/06: 322 (-34%)

Attached Sales Closed:
09/05: 208
09/06: 131 (-37%)

Average Sold Price

Detached: -1% (YOY)
Attached: +4% (YOY)

Detached Active listings:
09/05: 980
09/06: 1930 (+97%) YOY

Attached Active Listings:
09/05: 411
09/06: 934 (+127%) YOY

My bullshit analysis which is not investment advice:

First of all, rate of growth for inventory levels is slowing. It was going up in the six months prior around 100 - 250 units per month. Now it's going up very little (0 - 30 units per month). Has inventory peaked? Or are sellers deciding to pull out and wait for the next upswing? What will happen when the rates adjust? Personally, if I see another big upsurge in inventory trends, that means the panic sell-off will have begun. Will it happen? Who knows...

According to these numbers there are about 13 months of condo inventory and 6 months of residential out there. Amazingly, however, condo prices were still positive (4%) YOY and selling for the ridiculous average sale price of 484,022!

Lacking in these numbers is Average Asking Price. That would be nice to know. What are people getting for their money these days? An extra bedroom? Did that condo come with a Jaguar? Or 20k back at closing? Unfortunately, I don't know.

I think if inventory has peaked then it's now up to the other shoes to drop: out of work RE related people, underwater people, loan resets. crap, imagine if we had an earthquake right now!

I will try and call up some RE buddies and see what the man on the ground is seeing.

Hiding,

If that passbook savings account is in the six digits, many fashionably dressed SF women in their 30s would like to speak to you now.

re: Casey - I thought he was for real, now I just don't know - he does seem to be on schedule for your insanity defense theory.

ajh Says:
Does anyone know if there’s software around that allows you to turn tabular data into the likes of the “Map of Misery” that came out a month or so ago?

Microsoft Map? (Does it still exist?)
MapInfo (expensive)

Someone has lent casey $3000 dollars. He is going to use it to buy a fixer upper.

Isn't that how all his trouble started? The mark of an enthusiastic extrovert is that they don't learn from experience. They are always optimistic, and even when repeatedly punished in studies, they continue to do the same thing that brought on the punishment. A friend of mine who attends seminars like a junkie and believes everything he is told is just like that...

Microsoft Map
Default location: \Program Files\Common Files\Microsoft Shared\Datamap

Automation for Microsoft Map works when Microsoft Map is embedded in Microsoft Excel. It will not work when Microsoft Map is embedded in other applications.

+ Microsoft MapPoint on the web, a web-enabled mapping thingy...

SP:

We don't count the two digits after the decimal point!

Hiding,

Those fashionably dressed women regret to tell you that they're not that into you anymore.

SP,

If you can afford to pay off a hundred women's CC balances, I think that entitled you a hundred wives...

Oh, wait! Is polygamy legal?

shitstain Says:

> I’m wondering, has Casey mentioned his
> wife’s name? Could be useful for this:
> http://www.ccr.saccounty

I didn't dig around and look for a marriage license, but since I have posted that the whole Casey page seems fake I thought I would do a quick database search to try and find him. It looks like there is a real Casey K, Serin born 9/82 (back when I was an undergrad managing apartments) living in the Sacramento area. He lives with a Galina Serin that may be his wife.

ConfusedRenter Says:

> The can’t beat inflation argument isn’t relevant.
> Inflation affects renters and homeowners a like.
> Does that mean a renter loses 100% + even
> more due to inflation?
> Let’s through out the inflation argument pls.

When homes increase in value more than inflation the prices get ahead of what people earn so they will drop in value to get back to the historical multiples (everything reverts to the mean).
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/OFHEO-NorCal.html
There are still a lot of people waiting for inflation to get the value of their Beanie Baby collection up over the $100 each they paid and it may be a long wait with the average price on eBay still under $5.

If I buy a condo in my neighborhood for $1.5mm putting $500K cash down I will be lucky to sell the place in three years for over a million loosing my entire $500K down payment. I’ll also loose at least $75K in CD interest on the $500K, have sale costs of about $80K and pay about $100K more than my rent in interest and HOA dues over the three years. In SF my rent will go up by about 1-2%% per year (limited to 60% of CPI under rent control). In other markets without rent control rent has nothing to do with inflation and will go up based on supply and demand.

Watch Casey on TV:

http://www.kron4.com/global/Category.asp?c=85671

Burning Down the House

http://tinyurl.com/rhrg7

I think the following lyric is most relevant to the housing implosion-

"No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin yet"

The video-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJqnWBnCdv8

astrid Says:

> If that passbook savings account is in the six digits,
> many fashionably dressed SF women in their 30s
> would like to speak to you now.

Then Jon Says:

> That’s awesome. Why can’t I meet more women like
> this? Maybe I need to “casually” mention when I
> move money from this investment to that. Does that
> really get women going as much as I wish it didn’t?

astrid is right on in that noting gets a single woman in her 30’s going like a six figure (or bigger) cash balance (most women in their 20’s are not as interested in cash and will usually still sleep with the cute poor bartender in a band even if they know that the VC guy hitting on them just got a seven figure bonus).

Jon should try the phone number on the ATM slip trick where you park a couple hundred grand in an account and print a bunch of receipts (or just dig through the trash can outside a Pacific Heights ATM where many lazy rich people have checking accounts with tons of cash) then when you give a girl in her 30’s your number write it on the back of the ATM receipt that “happens” to be the only paper in your pocket…

most women in their 20’s are not as interested in cash and will usually still sleep with the cute poor bartender in a band even if they know that the VC guy hitting on them just got a seven figure bonus

Most people in their 20's are naive. They either think that they can achieve anything (inherited boomer thinking?) or that they do not need anything material.

Rising rents and fewer available apartments have pushed some renters to try bartering for their half of the bill. Among the offers: cleaning, cooking, massage … even sex.

I'm sorry to hear about your Mom, if she wasn't still eating so much corn I'd ass ram her and leave a $20 on the counter top, but there is such a line and I don't feel like waiting.

Still confused?

Oi! Peter! There's a big difference between "thinking you can achieve anything" and "thinking you deserve anything"!

On a side note, anyone have a data feed with dates, prices, and square footage for the BA? (Am curious what a 3D surface plot would show.)