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Randy H
@
2006 Oct 23, 2:18am
New Thread Bouncing Dead Cats
My apologies to cat lovers, I didn't coin the term.
CR's perspective appear to treat housing utility function as "the more the merrier" and does not consider the tradeoff from other utility derived from job security, flexibility, not having to suck up to a horrible but lucrative client, etc.
*unlurks*
OO mentioned something about "up and out" in IB and consulting firms. Here's a paper on "up and out" as explained in economic terms, for law firms (but plenty applicable to IB and consulting).
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2006/10/why_law_associa.html
The page opens to a general summary of the paper, the paper itself has some nice equations. I know Randy H will love it!
*relurks*
The law is actually a much less cruel mistress than IB or consulting as described on this blog. There's usually a fairly broad swatch of work outside of big corporate law firms (though the highest paying jobs will be in those firms).
TOLurker, you might consider law school too, if you can stand doing what lawyers do on a regular basis (as long as you avoid litigation, writing/research/drafting/counseling). Law firms are probably a little less discriminating about where your degree comes from (as long as it is in the top quartile of programs) and it's a broader track than finance/consulting. It is also easier to find work outside of major finance centers and easier to do parttime work. You said you have a technical background so IP work is a possibility (have you considered being a patent agent as another job insurance course? They can make $80K+ in the DC area - lots of flexibility).
A teaching certificate is another possible job insurance, but teaching is a path that some people love and others get very burnt out from.
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Start with any generally observable and credible premise. Example: "Rents are up 10%." Or "Inventory is up 135%."
Assuming the premise is true, what impact will this have on the Bay Area housing market?
For instance:
KCBS reported rents are up 10%. Most anecdotal evidence suggests anywhere between 7% to 15% increases. If this is true, it could have the following consequences:
1. Rents go up -> Wages go up -> Wage inflation slows job growth -> Puts brakes on population-driven rent increases -> Rent vs. Buy adjusts a little, not a lot.
2. Higher rents -> People move out of area -> Rents stabilize, maybe fall -> Rent vs. Buy doesn't change a lot, and demand for both rental and for-sale housing softens -> Prices continue to slide.
3. Higher rents + refis -> help to bail out a few homeowners, reducing the overhang of potential FB's -> Could cushion the landing a little.
4. Rents keep going up 10% per year -> Creative renting strategies (home sharing, warm-bedding, etc.) become common, but overall renting becomes an expensive proposition -> People continue to do whatever they can to buy, keeping nominal prices high -> Rent vs. Buy is mainly adjusted by higher rents.
Or another example.
Premise: Punch bowl gets thrown away after Nov. 8 elections.
FB's rush to the exits -> No buyer confidence -> Inventory spikes up -> Prices fall FB's put unsaleable houses for rent, driving rents down.
The above are just examples. You can start with any other credible economic premise and expand it to assess impact on the HB. And even those outside the Bay Area can contribute their own crystal ball visions. And if this turns out to be too arcane, feel free to start a new thread.
SP
#housing