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Recipe for a "Soft Landing"?


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2006 Nov 10, 9:27am   11,333 views  147 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Some of you out there still seem to be under the mistaken impression that inflation alone can somehow magically bail out f@cked homedebtors (and no, I'm not talking about semi-trolls like ConfusedRealtwhore). Some of you seem to believe that nominal prices --and sales-- can merely hold steady, even after 8 years of the most unprecedented run-up in real estate at least since the 1920s. When (mostly falling) median prices in many parts of the U.S. are now several standard deviations away from the long-term mean vs. supporting rents and incomes, and unsold inventory (phantom or not) continues to grow.

Some of you really ought to put the NAR bong down and pull your lips off Bendover Ben's ass for a second.

In case you happen to be one of those suffering from this popular delusion, please take a moment to look at the following charts, most of them skillfully prepared by Mr Ritholtz over at the The Big Picture. They say a picture's worth a thousand words. What do these charts say to you?

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM


Mortgage Resets 2004-2014
MEW 1960-2006
Prices vs GDP 1968-2006
Housing Starts 1959-2006
Inventory vs Sales 1983-2006

#housing

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139   surfer-x   2006 Nov 12, 11:03am  

My daddy was the CEO of a large cap mining company, so I am fine

And you mommy was a cum gobbling whore, so what?

140   Different Sean   2006 Nov 12, 11:03am  

oh, dryfly already answered... my guess was remarkably close!

141   Different Sean   2006 Nov 12, 11:08am  

wow, SFWoman2! this is like DC or Marvel Comics where an alternative spiderman or superman suddenly appears...

142   Different Sean   2006 Nov 12, 11:29am  

I believe the proper grammar and punctuation you seek is to add an apostrophe when pluralizing an acronym term ending in S.

not sure. i don't think you are meant to use ' to signify a plural with any acronym or abbrev. (did you notice how i abbreved abbrev? self-referential) the use of ' (apostrophe) is only for possessive case or in place of a letter, e.g. the dog's dish, it's a nice day, i won't blog today. notice the common confusion with its and it's, it's is not correct for possessive case, otherwise you would say hi's and her's also -- 'where is its leash?' is correct, 'where is it's leash?' is not. or isn't. but people have a tendency to use it's as a possessive, myself included. and definitely realtors. 'lovely dinning room, seperate from kitchen, with it's own entranceway from the mane coridor' a.k.a. the grocer's apostrophe... (cabbage's 50c)

143   Bruce   2006 Nov 12, 7:00pm  

DS,

Thanks for 'dinning room'. It's one of my favo(u)rites!

144   Different Sean   2006 Nov 12, 8:39pm  

I actually saw 'dinning room' recently in an ad, it's not even fabricated... and 'seperate' too, i think...

145   Different Sean   2006 Nov 12, 8:46pm  

however, the general rule i found in engineering was the worse the spelling, the greater the engineering genius... the very best engineers could neither talk nor write, heh...

146   Different Sean   2006 Nov 13, 6:34am  

It is an exercise worth doing - especially before you head off to college. Anyway I sent the analysis into an econ prof who moderated the blog & it got pretty heated.

That's very true. It's not quite as bad here where 3/4 of the cost of tuition is borne by the taxpayer, although it goes around again later when you're earning and paying tax. Still, plenty of people who do a general business or arts degree end up working the same job as if they'd never bothered, e.g. customer service. However, it pays off for most of the professions, altho law is a wild card like you say. Possessing the basic piece of paper will open doors tho.

The academics end up acting like salesmen for tertiary education, they aren't impartial or 'seeking truth and knowledge' about it at all, nor really trying to articulate supply and demand for employment with the real world - I imagine the American system is even more prone to hucksterism from what I've seen because of the cost factor disincentive. When I queried the merits of doing a 6-year psychology stream with the psych faculty just to get registration, they got very defensive, and fabricate outcomes for their students without any backup stats as almost standard fallback lines ('all our students get jobs', etc.)

And we dress pretty natty too.

hmm, I forgot that part -- flannelette shirts ring a bell... I was in a scavenger hunt group when I was 18 called 'engineers who don't own flannelette shirts' or something like that... I remember bringing in an obscure vinyl LP and a complete (new) toilet, but couldn't manage the human brain for extra points. I'm ethically horrified now, things have changed fortunately.

147   astrid   2006 Nov 13, 7:30am  

Much of the US education is borne by endownments or the government. When I was going to a pricy private first tier college while my parents were making a slightly above avg income ($70-80K/yr) my college bore about 60% of the retail cost, I took on $2,500/yr in subsidized loans and my parents paid the rest out of their income. They didn't have much asset outside of retirement funds at the time though.

My big plan for dealing with kids' (if any) education is as follows, in order of preference:

clumping kids together

go in-state tuition shopping - Georgia and CA seems to offer the best deals for one's tuition dollars

transfer assets to parents as gifts (up to $40K yr tax free), expect to get money back as estate asset -- this one is actually pretty awesome since it also can also get rid of a lot of capital gain, but only works if one has frugal and trustworthy parents with relatively low networth, and it really helps if you have no siblings. Also have to buy parents long term care insurance so long illnesses does not waste the asset.

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