patrick.net

Personally, I can’t see why anyone cannot just rent and wait [...] Does anyone really “need” to buy right now?

Wheel chair access. Seeing my mother has fallen again tends to drive up ownership utility pretty fast. Although you are right, there are alternatives to even that. We're looking at finding her something very nearby which is partially-disabled-friendly. But it's still suboptimal. This is why we will buy _before_ absolute bottom, and feel very good about it, irrespective of whether I'm called a sheep or not.

@King_Cobra:

I'm renting in Mill Valley, and we're looking to move north to get out of the fog. I'm tired of having a near-miss head-on collision every morning leaving my house on these blind-curve .75lane streets, anyway.

Randy H,

We have those kind of roads all over OR! (They're called "a lane and half!) It really requires cooperative driving techniques and both parties full attention.

SFWoman,

As I understand it (in CA) people are still liable for an equity line, even if the house is repossed and sold for less. The first mortgage, however, they are able to walk away from and the bank can't go after them for any difference between mortgage and selling price. Help me out here, if anyone knows better.

That could be why someone is selling from one person in the family to another and then back again - or maybe I am too suspicious and paranoid - sounds like dodgy dealings anyway - either mortgage fraud (or close to it) or tax dodging?

@Patch Tuesday,

I'm getting "You are not authorized to view this page" errors for those links you posted. Is there an alternate site you can upload them to?

HARM,

Any time someone even "suggests" lower int. rates re-igniting speculative fervor I get so flustered I can't even speak. I have to hand it to you keeping your composure like that. It is so........ begging the issue.

thanks for that extremely long post earlier, Ha Ha. I forwarded it on to a mate who's a professor of political economy at syd u, the content of the article on all topics is exactly the sort of thing he writes and lectures about...

you may make obscene and incalculable amounts of money but you have a heart of gold...

sydney university has just 'won' a $50m 'US Studies Centre' contract, which is located just around the corner from me. not sure what that really means, is it a signal for an even bigger influx of exchange students for landlords in the area to gouge for rent? interestingly, it's being funded by Lowy of Westfield (owns all US shopping centres) and Murdoch of News Corp (owns all US papers, TV and radio stations). or at least it seems like it. they've asked me to be the founding professor...

Sydney University wins bid for US centre

@DinOR,

I know what you mean, but I've --as they say-- "been at this a while". Over the last 18 months or so, I've learned not to assume that everyone else out there knows what we (who have been carefully dissecting this mess for months/years) know. They don't, and the non-trolls, who are willing to listen, require our patience.

Randy H,

Sorry to hear about your mom. Seems like we'll be in a similar situation sooner than we think. We had looked (not all that seriously) at a few condos in LV and Mrs. DinOR is keen to remind me not to "waste time" looking at anything that isn't on ground level. Kind of drag. What's better than being in Vegas and looking out over the pool from your balcony! Oh well.

@Randy H,

Ditto to what DinOR said. I agree that sometimes it's difficult to find an *exact* rental substitute for your needs in any market, especially given your mom's situation.

I'm also not expecting to time the absolute market bottom. "Close enough" is good enough for me. As DinOR says, anyone who can consistently do that is a liar. Even Buffett says he made his billions by buying & selling "too early".

HARM,

As always, good point. Just in passing, bubble watching isn't just some perverse thrill for me. Well in ways it is, but imagine having today's technology to monitor the events leading up to the Crash of 29. Knowing all of the events that are about to unfold just not having the exact date!

Who among us could resist watching that?

I've often heard of attempting to over analyze the timing of the market as "getting too cute".

Damn it, if you think the cops are on their way do you really need to stick around to prove your point?

King_Cobra,

Petaluma? No. We're trying to stay south of the "Wall of Traffic". I have some friends who bought a virtual estate in Novato, but he is already complaining about the traffic into SF every day. The other day I heard on the radio the trip from Rowland to the bridge was nearly 90 minutes. My trip to the bridge is 8 minutes.

Maybe if the Larkspur Ferry schedule didn't suck so bad.

@dryfly - so can you view those images? Odd, but for some reason I can't.

So far, we've had parodies with images of D.L., LAY, Gary "Bagman" Watts, Bendover Ben, Greedspin, Senor Cardgage, an alligator and even a crackhead. But so far, not one with Casey Serin. What gives?

He's got youtube videos of himself whining up, so it takes all the fun out of it.

Randy,

If you can view/download those 'Patch Tuesday' images, could you email them to me? Thanks.

@Muggy,

Can't wait... ;-)

We're still operating under the assumption that Casey Serin is the real thing?

Muggy,

Normally teen movies of this genre are destined for the bargain bin. However when you have big name talent like the Case-man you've just gotta know it's got cult classic written all over it.

Can we do a parody of Saving Silverman? Like Saving Serinman?

@HARM

I can't see them either. Those links sound a bit "EQish", as does the "patchtuesday" name.

Knife catchers that buckle and give in will justify it in their own mind by saying, “Yeah, comps may be falling all around me but long term this will be good for me”. By the time those fencesitters…….yada yada…..

The interesting thing is, apart from knife catchers and true FBs, a lot of people who already own can sell and buy a new place in the market at about the same time without losing anything by it -- this is the safest way to transact. They sell for a huge sum and buy for a huge sum. This is another reason prices are bolstered or are 'sticky'. Some very clever people even sold 2 years ago at the top trying to time the fall, as discussed above. The fall will come when increasing numbers in the Gen X or Gen Y come to buy their first new place, and demand will increasingly be from them rather than existing home owners (who will be dying off). The only other path to home ownership will be to inherit, and you either chose your parents wisely and/or they didn't have too many kids...

Muggy,

Serin's face fits that 'Dude' poster so well, it's scary.

OMG, skibum killed D.L.!

OMG, skibum killed D.L.!

"Sweeeeet" -Donald Trump
"Robert, what's your right hand doing?" - Casey Serin
"mmfmfmfmfmmffmmf" -D.L.

You could start quoting CR. Ya know, pretend to be a convert to the whole "infinitely up and to the right" mindset. Be sure to talk glowingly about the Brazillian cherry floors you saw at an open house last week. Mention that it sold for over asking.

"Guess those flippers really made their money on that one! You know any brokers who could get me one of those Interest Only loans? I need about two million... but you should see the VIEWS!"

It is actually a very simple equation, if you "bought" a house (whoops, home) in the past three years and you could not afford a traditional amortizing mortgage, you are fucked.

The only real question is how many fucks have stupid fucking mortgages.

@I like Scotch, I think you should whore out your slut of a girlfriend and should sell your bastard children to the white baby black market slave traders and "buy" that fucking house. Or you could just go fuck yourselves back on craigslist.

The October Housing Starts numbers are out and they are UGLY.

Down 14% MOM, 28% YOY.

They sound beautiful to me.

Is this UK's version of surfer-x?

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/11/17/britain.webrage.reut/index.html

Allah,

That was awesome! Nice work. Btw I'd heard it was actually 14.6% down MoM! Don't cheat me out my .6%, not even on a Friday!

skibum,

Well there's a reason we use "screen names".

I’m confident that house prices will either stay flat or decline slightly over the next few months. However, my fiance and I are 36 and 32 yo, and have been living in a 1 br apt for the past 1 1/2 years so we could save $ for a house, and we are anxious to move into a bigger place, so we’re going to put in an offer of 5%-7% below asking.

Scotch,

You are going to make a flipper very, very happy......you may even keep him from commiting suicide. If you do buy, I think in a year or two, your going to be drinking alot of scotch......but then again, maybe you won't be able to afford it.

I Like Scotch,

Welcome to the Board. As you can see, you need a tough skin to pass the "gauntlet" of surfer-x and co. Don't take it personally.

@allah,

Just LOVED the clapping Saddam & Osama --nice work!

@allah,

"Leslie, you got some 'splainin to do" - DL
"Waaaaahhhhh" - LAY

Is Gary Watts supposed to be Fred Mertz?

Is Gary Watts supposed to be Fred Mertz?

I haven't really written a script for it, but it was a Gary Watts infomercial Lucy was watching; Gary had convinced Lucy that the gains were "in the bag". She went on a spending spree buying up "too many houses" and couldn't sell them after the market tanked. Ricky (Desi) went on a advertising campaign convincing people that "the market is local" and that prices "here" will go back to normal appreciation, you know 8-10%. Alan Greenspam provided the easy to get funds that Lucy would have never been able to acquire in a normal market.

@allah,

Better yet, have you seen/heard the classic Eddie Murphy "Delirious" standup routine? If you have, need I say more?

"Hey Gary, how would you like to...?" - DL
"Babalooooo!"