patrick.net

Surfer-X,

Fri-day? Remember I’m 37% less offensive in person. Randal H, sushi?

Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.

Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.

Any good sushi restaurant with easy parking?

Any good sushi restaurant with easy parking?

I like Ebisu in the Inner Sunset and Grandeho Kamelkyo in Cole Valley.

You heard it here! Home prices have bottomed out! It's only up from here (according to the home builders, to be specific...)

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/05/news/companies/toll_brothers/index.htm?postversion=2006120512

Weren't there plenty of articles calling the bottom of the last downturn ('89-'94) all the way down to the bottom five years later?

Randy H,

Psst. (Shorter over @ Ben's tearing his heart out over the builders rally). Psst. (It's very funny to hear shorters say 'the market just doesn't make sense any more', it's just gambling, researching doesn't pay! yada yada)

Hey! What are we whispering for? Classic case of survivor's bias meets gone to the well one too many times.

skibum,

Psst. (The "real" reason the builders are rallying is b/c of that stoopid Gates Foundation rumor) not an unbalanced article with a who's who of RE shills being quoted. Sush. (Just between you, me and the fence post).

Did any of you folks catch this piece of evilness?

http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2006/12/01/sf_mls_to_shut_down_public_internet_access.php

The URL says it all...

DinOR,

LOL. Shorting is tough business. Markets can remain "irrational longer than you can remain..."

Making a fundamentals based argument to short is sort of funny, considering that fundamentals work much better to justify long positions.

How do these guys know the HB stocks aren't already priced towards the forward looking bottom? There are lots of smart people, and many who've already thought many moves ahead. Weren't a couple of the smaller HBs trading at just about cash last month? Priced below that indicate the market is pricing in bankruptcy likelihood. I rather think most of the HBs will just get acquired by bigger HBs, not go bankrupt.

Randy H,

So true. I don't really track them but how can you NOT have heard several were at book value, so........?

This is a large part of the reason I make every effort to stay not only informed, but balanced. Like I say it's o.k to be bearish about certain things at certain times but always remember; Bears don't "create" anything!

When I was in HS one kid really hated me and bet I wouldn't make the team. Then he bet me I'd break my arm. When that didn't happen.......

Surfer-X,

Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.

Done, I'm good Friday or Saturday

There are lots of smart people, and many who’ve already thought many moves ahead.

The Market is one of the places in which one can become too smart.

Done, I’m good Friday or Saturday

Cool. I should be free Friday night or Saturday. Weather may not be nice though.

Weather may not be nice though.

How can this be possible? I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?

I actually believe that money can be made only when the market moves between irrational extremes. (When it is rational, every piece of information is already priced-in.)

How can this be possible? I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?

Unicorns and carebears are out flipping properties.

Buried Treasure
By Kitty Galore 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
April 1, 2007

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ask nearly anyone to describe the state of the nation's economy and you get the same answer - "recession". However, if you happen to run into the shadowy personality known simply as 'The Elitist', you will get a different answer. The Elitist is stepping high and whistling a gay tune (not that there is anything wrong with that) even as the gloom spreads ever wider on this economy.

His secret is simple - he has cornered the world's production of St. Joseph's statuettes and has a half-nelson on related accessories. As the once red hot U.S. real estate market swooned unexpectedly in late 2006, and after several quarters of 'stabilization' and intense 'normalization', failed to revive this spring, sellers of homes have turned to The Elitist for help. Help that he is happy to provide through his chain of St. Joe's Cafe's (Nasdaq: STJO).

St. Joe's Cafe's have eclipsed the growth of Starbucks, as desperate home-debtors flock to these outlets buy their daily statuette. Taking a page out of Starbuck's strategy, The Elitist offers three sizes - tall, grande and venti - as well as an ethnically diverse set of statuettes (thankfully NOT called vanilla, chai and mocha). The Elitist is keen to point out that he did avoid one costly mistake that Starbucks made: "I realized that Starbucks had overextended their franchise when they opened new Starbucks locations in the restrooms of existing Starbucks."

Growth in the St. Joe's sector accelerated unexpectedly in late March, as rumors spread that burying more than one St. Joseph statuettes would help sell the house faster. The Elitist declined to confirm or deny any such claim, but acknowledges that the development greatly increased demand for the product, and allowed them to rapidly extend the franchise into St. Joseph Scented Oils, St. Joseph burgers and a St. Joseph branded line of active-wear. "When we started hearing that people were taking out home-equity loans to repave their yards with St. Joseph statues, we realized this would be something really big," says the Chief Economist of St. Joe's, Mr. David Lereah. "This is a new paradigm and sales have reached a permanently high plateau. People are now getting concerned that if they don't buy the statuettes today, they may get completely priced out."

What's next for St. Joe's? The company is tight-lipped about their future plans, but speculation is spreading that the company will use its multi-billion dollar IPO war chest for acquisitions and expansion into the huge Chinese and Indian markets. "There are a lot of demigods, and our aim is to become the world's number one provider of demigod-related merchandise," says The Elitist. From his No. 3 position on Forbes' billionaire list, everything seems easy.

Surfer-X said:
I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?

Most of them got offshored. The rest got priced out and left for Tennessee to go work in the booming lawn-mower repair industry.

SP

SP,

Perfect. Simply...... perfect.

SP,

Very clever --good show!

Cassius Says:

I do like your choice of date.

Good call, "Cassius". Didn't make the 'Ides of March' connection on my first pass. Perhaps a spoof of Shakespeare's Julius Caesar would be in order --with David Lereah cast as Caesar, surrounded by an angry mob of knife-wielding FBs.

Perhaps a spoof of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar would be in order –with David Lereah cast as Caesar, surrounded by an angry mob of knife-wielding FBs.

Et tu, Leslie Appleton-Young?

I got this email from a Movoto rep today:

Subject: Market Bottom

Good Afternoon,
I am sure you have been watching the market and all the news about the correction we have been experiencing with prices falling for the first time in years this summer as the number of homes being sold slowed and inventory continued to build with homes staying on the market longer.
Interest rates have come down again recently providing stability to the market. We expect prices may start to rise again by spring. I believe buyers have the advantage today and should be selective.
Please contact me to review your goals and let me know how I can be of specific help to you at this time. Happy Holidays!
Regards, Eric

There's that spring again.

A betting pool would be interesting.

"We expect prices may start to rise again by spring."

MAY start to rise again - this is a new (abeit minor) note of caution!

Another revealing interview if you click on the right-middle of the screen where it says "Toll Brothers on Cavuto" (the link may not be there much longer, but I don't know how to get a specific url link to the video):

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Interestingly, the MSM spin on the Tolls' statements about a "market bottom" are not entirely accurate. Toll is very hedgy and wishy-washy about calling a bottom of the market. His tone of voice, facial expressions and body language all suggest to me that he really doesn't believe we're at the bottom yet.

I just received an interesting phone call from a realtor in TX. I completed a form on her web site to gain access to the property search function so she gave me a follow up call. No problem since I am in the market to buy.

She goes on and on about how busy they are this Holiday Season; the exact words were, "We are swamped with business now and last December it wasn't worth coming in to the office".

Now, the question that keeps rattling around in my hollow head is if she is "swamped", why is she cold calling on a contact who left the info a month ago and said was not interested in buying.

Dunno.....maybe she's just a super overachiever.

SP - hehe, desperate people do the funniest thing - shut your eyes and concentrate real hard, St. Joseph will find you that stupid buyer!

Doug H - I'm guessing that in 2008 realtors will rate below used car salesmen and just above mortgage brokers & Secretary of Defense in terms of professional reputation.

I think Phoenix will go down hard, punishing.

Baltimore, MD - Sufficating under a mountain of debt, long commutes and irreconcilable musical differences, Green Staffer and Binky McBling want to call it quits - but they can't!

The catch? A "charming" rowhouse they bought in June 2005. "It was a no-brainer" said McBling, a pretty personal assistant who commutes to work in downtown D.C. "Our rowhouse was only 1/4 the price of an equivalent place in D.C., the upside was tremendous."

"We thought it would be a good investment in our future" said Staffer, a legislative assistant. "We had been dating for 3 months and we totally clicked on not wanting to throw away more money on rent. We wanted to build our equity now."

Staffer and McBling bought rowhouse for $420,000, bidding $25,000 more than listing. They waved inspection and used an ARM to keep the payments reasonable. They then took out $30,000 to update the plumbing and repair the foundation.

Staffer noted: "Fall 2005 was a really stressful time for us, we were dealing with contractors every weekend and writing out all these huge checks. Plus, we found out that we really didn't like each other's company. Binky only listens to boy bands."

McBling added: "I found out Staffer was kind of a snobby jerk and he's really cheap too. He never treats me to dinner anymore. He said that he couldn't afford it anymore because of house payments and commuting."

But they found out that the house they bought bounded them together. "We thought we could just rent it out and then move back to D.C." said Staffer. But they found out that rent would only cover 50% of their monthly costs.

Selling was also not an option. McBling says: "Someone offered $375,000 in April 2006, we just sort of laughed it off. We'd rather stay together than sell this house for less than it's worth." She thought for a bit longer and then brightened "I just took out a credit card balance transfer to redecorate the house. I think granite countertops will definitely attract more buyers. School is ending soon and the families will be out in force, we just need to get the house ready for them."

Does this guy have OCD w/numbers or something?

http://www.coolnumbers.com/

wow, an anti-housing sushi party. Sounds like a slammin time.

From the Modesto Bee:

Albert Quintero's timing couldn't have been worse. He made a deal to buy a new Turlock luxury home in November 2005, at the real estate market's peak. By the time construction ended in July, Quintero's Milestone Way home wasn't worth the $874,890 he was contractually obligated to pay.

Now the same model — a new home on nearby Tapestry Way — is priced at $639,990. "It's really tough to swallow that we paid 37 percent more than what our home is worth now," Quintero said. "We got caught."
_____

No! It can't be!

Didn't the realtor say that real estate only goes up!

As this socio-economic, existential catastrophe starts to unfold the word "tragicomedy" will take on frightening, new dimensions.

What "fearful symmetry." Or should I say, what fearful a-symmetry.

"Green Staffer and Binky McBling want to call it quits-but they can't!"

astrid, you have truly nailed it! Even for older couples, their whole relationship (and every waking moment) has become "about the house"! Or more specifically "about their investment". I particularly liked the schtick about the "waived inspection" and 30k loan for frivilous things like making sure the toilets actually flush and the crumbling foundation! Talk about "blinded by love"?

wow, an anti-housing sushi party. Sounds like a slammin time.

We are all pro-housing. More units should be built.

Doug H,

Good to see ya! Sorry to hear of your unfortunate TX experience. Most of the realtors I've come in contact with have already made the transition to "there may be some values out there" and have dropped the whole pretense of being "swamped". Even the ones that realize you're an out of town looker. Especially now that just about every market is neg. YoY.

Peter P,

Didn't know you got UP this early but thank you for catching that! Exactly, we're actually "pro"-housing! We're just "anti" mortgage fraud, cooked appraisal, fixed commission and manipulated MLS!

Didn’t know you got UP this early but thank you for catching that!

I have decided to try getting up at 6:30 and going to bed before 11pm.

Or perhaps it is just jet lag?

Peter P,

When you say 11pm you mean on the weekend right?

When you say 11pm you mean on the weekend right?

Perhaps. I should probably go to bed earlier on weekdays.

I think login access is needed, but another MSM source turning to the "darkside," pretty bearish on housing. I think we have another "convert" to the "team":

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business/06leonhardt.html?hp&ex=1165467600&en=13e309a543ffe184&ei=5094&partner=homepage

New York Times:

What Statistics on Home Sales Aren’t Saying

By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: December 6, 2006

Excerpts:

**************

The truth is that the official numbers on house prices — the last refuge of soothing information about the real estate market on the coasts — are deeply misleading. Depending on which set you look at, you’ll see that prices have either continued to rise, albeit modestly, or have fallen slightly over the last year. But the statistics have a number of flaws, perhaps the biggest being that they are based only on homes that have actually sold. The numbers overlook all those homes that have been languishing on the market for months, getting only offers that their owners have not been willing to accept.

In reality, homes across much of Florida, California and the Northeast are worth a lot less than they were a year ago. The auction in Naples may have exaggerated the downturn in the market there, but not by much. Tom Doyle, a Naples real estate agent, estimated that a typical house there, sold in the normal way, would go for about 20 percent less than it did the previous fall.

In the Boston area, prices have fallen about 10 to 15 percent since the middle of 2005, estimated Chobee Hoy, who owns a real estate brokerage firm in Brookline. Jerome J. Manning, who runs the Massachusetts-based auction company that conducted the Naples sale, told me he thought that values had dropped about 20 percent around Boston. (The government, meanwhile, says the average price rose 1 percent from last summer to this summer. But here’s all you need to know about how well the government tracks the Boston market: the index excludes any mortgage larger than $417,000.)

(snip)

For many homeowners, of course, the decline doesn’t much matter. They didn’t really benefit from the run-up, and they won’t suffer from the decline. And for any renters hoping to buy a home, the fall in prices is downright good news.

Unfortunately, there are also a lot of families that took on huge mortgage debts based on the ephemeral peak values of their properties. In effect, they cashed in on the housing boom without cashing out. As Ed Smith Jr., the chief executive of Plaza Financial Group, a mortgage brokerage firm near San Diego, said, “So many people picked up their homes, turned them upside down and shook them like a piggy bank.”

The withdrawals have been so big that the average household in Boston now has slightly less equity in its home than it did in 2000, according to an analysis by Moody’s Economy.com that took inflation into account. And that analysis used the house prices reported by the National Association of Realtors, which appear to be more accurate than the government’s data right now but are still too rosy.

Then there are the people who bought their homes in the last couple of years and made almost no down payment. Many of them may now be underwater, owing more on their mortgages than their houses are worth.

Most worrisome, growing numbers of these families are falling behind on their mortgage payments, and they won’t be able to bail themselves out by refinancing or selling their homes. “We’re now going to combine a high amount of debt with falling home values,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com.

For the broader economy, this may turn out to be just a hiccup. Big piles of debt can often look scarier than they really are. Then again, the housing slump of 2006 may also be the start of something larger. Mr. Zandi considers it to be “the most significant threat to the global expansion.”

Over the last few decades, the world’s financial system has endured a crisis roughly once every three or four years. There was the stock market crash of 1987, the Asian and Mexican meltdowns in the 1990s, the dot-com implosion of 2000 and, most recently, the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001. We may now be living on both borrowed money and borrowed time.

contains the seeds of its own destruction...