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April 1, 2007
We tell ourselves stories in order to live. Only, I'm not certain the story I've been telling these past two years is really mine.
The speaker, attractive 24-year-old Toulouse native Jeanne Bertrand, is waiting - as I am - for the doors of Bullock's to open, and a surfeit of caffeine has overcome her natural reserve.
Relais et Chateau placed me here last year, and it all seemed rather refreshing then, though I've never owned so much black gabardine before. You see it was necessaire to remain visible against the taupe. But now the listers have become sniffy - and among buyers there is sangfroid. What is one to do? Je m'ennui.
Someone asked me what M.David at NAR has to say of all this. I've heard reports that he has become deaf but, really, he only thinks he is deaf because he no longer hears himself talked about.
For myself, I think Hong Kong. I realize it is on the latte/blackberry axis, but this should be amusing for awhile, no? Do they wear black in Hong Kong?
SFWoman,
The Realty Times article you posted was very revealing. What it ultimately shows us is that in 2003 "only" 11% of home sales were to investors. By 2004 (the AG quotes are from OCTOBER 2004!) that number would more than triple to 36%. 2005? 40%!
What in essence we've allowed to happen is to turn rank and file local lenders into VC guys! Due in large part to the "primary residence" wink/nod rubber stamp approval this crowd wasn't even playing by the normal rules that govern commercial/investment property!
Imagine for just a minute walking into a commercial lender and telling them you have no experience other than making mortgage payments and that you would like to purchase a parking garage, airplane hangar and strip mall with a zero down I/O loan? Imagine further that you can now access this capital just by going to their web-site!
If this isn't a recipe for a "Silent Spring" what is?
George,
Thanks and I know I speak for all at patrick.net when I say we wish you well in ALL your future endeavors!
So much for the "throw the bums out" theory of firming rents eh? Since I'm a sales guy too I always try to couch things in terms of, well...... what kind of script could we come up with for the "Spring Miracle 2007"? What are your fellow agents saying? What are they basing this on? I mean other than blind faith?
Peter P
2006 Dec 4, 11:09pm
Peter P. sushi in SF this week or weekend?
Sure. Who else is coming? Where should we go?
George,
Now imagine having to go back to all of the people that bought homes in 04-05 and tell them, "It's not bad enough you couldn't sell that home for anything near what YOU paid for it but it's gone negative equity so you'll have to send a check in before close of business Friday or we'll have to sell it out from under you!"
(Think NASDAQ 2000-2002)
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:02am
OT, but do you guys know where I can get a hold of some dragon fruits (hylocereus undatus)?
Peter P,
All you have to do is put salt on a dragon's tail and you'll have all the dragon fruit you like!
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:12am
All you have to do is put salt on a dragon’s tail and you’ll have all the dragon fruit you like!
Huh?
Paul: (from previous) OT
My understanding of a "bucket shop" is when a MF manager is getting out of a position they can contract a firm to peddle the shares to retail investors to support the stock as they liquidate the position. I'd have to say that GCI is a market maker using the the NYSE to price their CFD's. In all actuality you would never be able to take "physical possession" of any shares, period.
All others proceed to "the Real Estate Heaven of 2007"!
Peter P,
When we were kids grandparents would tell us, "If you want to catch a bird, all you have to do is put salt on his tail". Well for crissakes granny if I could put salt on his tail......
I think food is 2 times more expensive there for some reason.
Nah, it's only 20% more.
http://www.burbed.com/2006/11/23/how-to-save-20-on-your-groceries-for-thanksgiving/
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:41am
Nah, it’s only 20% more.
And it is 20% more because housing is 20% more? Sad.
Randy H
2006 Dec 5, 12:41am
Surfer-X,
Fri-day? Remember I’m 37% less offensive in person. Randal H, sushi?
Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:50am
Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.
Any good sushi restaurant with easy parking?
Any good sushi restaurant with easy parking?
I like Ebisu in the Inner Sunset and Grandeho Kamelkyo in Cole Valley.
You heard it here! Home prices have bottomed out! It's only up from here (according to the home builders, to be specific...)
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/05/news/companies/toll_brothers/index.htm?postversion=2006120512
Weren't there plenty of articles calling the bottom of the last downturn ('89-'94) all the way down to the bottom five years later?
Randy H,
Psst. (Shorter over @ Ben's tearing his heart out over the builders rally). Psst. (It's very funny to hear shorters say 'the market just doesn't make sense any more', it's just gambling, researching doesn't pay! yada yada)
Hey! What are we whispering for? Classic case of survivor's bias meets gone to the well one too many times.
skibum,
Psst. (The "real" reason the builders are rallying is b/c of that stoopid Gates Foundation rumor) not an unbalanced article with a who's who of RE shills being quoted. Sush. (Just between you, me and the fence post).
Did any of you folks catch this piece of evilness?
http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2006/12/01/sf_mls_to_shut_down_public_internet_access.php
The URL says it all...
Randy H
2006 Dec 5, 2:08am
DinOR,
LOL. Shorting is tough business. Markets can remain "irrational longer than you can remain..."
Making a fundamentals based argument to short is sort of funny, considering that fundamentals work much better to justify long positions.
How do these guys know the HB stocks aren't already priced towards the forward looking bottom? There are lots of smart people, and many who've already thought many moves ahead. Weren't a couple of the smaller HBs trading at just about cash last month? Priced below that indicate the market is pricing in bankruptcy likelihood. I rather think most of the HBs will just get acquired by bigger HBs, not go bankrupt.
Randy H,
So true. I don't really track them but how can you NOT have heard several were at book value, so........?
This is a large part of the reason I make every effort to stay not only informed, but balanced. Like I say it's o.k to be bearish about certain things at certain times but always remember; Bears don't "create" anything!
When I was in HS one kid really hated me and bet I wouldn't make the team. Then he bet me I'd break my arm. When that didn't happen.......
Surfer-X,
Fri-day? Remember I’m 37% less offensive in person. Randal H, sushi?
Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.
Done, I'm good Friday or Saturday
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:33am
There are lots of smart people, and many who’ve already thought many moves ahead.
The Market is one of the places in which one can become too smart.
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:34am
Done, I’m good Friday or Saturday
Cool. I should be free Friday night or Saturday. Weather may not be nice though.
Weather may not be nice though.
How can this be possible? I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:38am
I actually believe that money can be made only when the market moves between irrational extremes. (When it is rational, every piece of information is already priced-in.)
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:39am
How can this be possible? I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?
Unicorns and carebears are out flipping properties.
Buried Treasure
By Kitty Galore 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
April 1, 2007
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ask nearly anyone to describe the state of the nation's economy and you get the same answer - "recession". However, if you happen to run into the shadowy personality known simply as 'The Elitist', you will get a different answer. The Elitist is stepping high and whistling a gay tune (not that there is anything wrong with that) even as the gloom spreads ever wider on this economy.
His secret is simple - he has cornered the world's production of St. Joseph's statuettes and has a half-nelson on related accessories. As the once red hot U.S. real estate market swooned unexpectedly in late 2006, and after several quarters of 'stabilization' and intense 'normalization', failed to revive this spring, sellers of homes have turned to The Elitist for help. Help that he is happy to provide through his chain of St. Joe's Cafe's (Nasdaq: STJO).
St. Joe's Cafe's have eclipsed the growth of Starbucks, as desperate home-debtors flock to these outlets buy their daily statuette. Taking a page out of Starbuck's strategy, The Elitist offers three sizes - tall, grande and venti - as well as an ethnically diverse set of statuettes (thankfully NOT called vanilla, chai and mocha). The Elitist is keen to point out that he did avoid one costly mistake that Starbucks made: "I realized that Starbucks had overextended their franchise when they opened new Starbucks locations in the restrooms of existing Starbucks."
Growth in the St. Joe's sector accelerated unexpectedly in late March, as rumors spread that burying more than one St. Joseph statuettes would help sell the house faster. The Elitist declined to confirm or deny any such claim, but acknowledges that the development greatly increased demand for the product, and allowed them to rapidly extend the franchise into St. Joseph Scented Oils, St. Joseph burgers and a St. Joseph branded line of active-wear. "When we started hearing that people were taking out home-equity loans to repave their yards with St. Joseph statues, we realized this would be something really big," says the Chief Economist of St. Joe's, Mr. David Lereah. "This is a new paradigm and sales have reached a permanently high plateau. People are now getting concerned that if they don't buy the statuettes today, they may get completely priced out."
What's next for St. Joe's? The company is tight-lipped about their future plans, but speculation is spreading that the company will use its multi-billion dollar IPO war chest for acquisitions and expansion into the huge Chinese and Indian markets. "There are a lot of demigods, and our aim is to become the world's number one provider of demigod-related merchandise," says The Elitist. From his No. 3 position on Forbes' billionaire list, everything seems easy.
Surfer-X said:
I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?
Most of them got offshored. The rest got priced out and left for Tennessee to go work in the booming lawn-mower repair industry.
SP
Cassius Says:
December 5th, 2006 at 5:30 am
Randy H,
I do like your choice of date.
Good call, "Cassius". Didn't make the 'Ides of March' connection on my first pass. Perhaps a spoof of Shakespeare's Julius Caesar would be in order --with David Lereah cast as Caesar, surrounded by an angry mob of knife-wielding FBs.
Perhaps a spoof of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar would be in order –with David Lereah cast as Caesar, surrounded by an angry mob of knife-wielding FBs.
Et tu, Leslie Appleton-Young?
I got this email from a Movoto rep today:
Subject: Market Bottom
Good Afternoon,
I am sure you have been watching the market and all the news about the correction we have been experiencing with prices falling for the first time in years this summer as the number of homes being sold slowed and inventory continued to build with homes staying on the market longer.
Interest rates have come down again recently providing stability to the market. We expect prices may start to rise again by spring. I believe buyers have the advantage today and should be selective.
Please contact me to review your goals and let me know how I can be of specific help to you at this time. Happy Holidays!
Regards, Eric
There's that spring again.
A betting pool would be interesting.
"We expect prices may start to rise again by spring."
MAY start to rise again - this is a new (abeit minor) note of caution!
Another revealing interview if you click on the right-middle of the screen where it says "Toll Brothers on Cavuto" (the link may not be there much longer, but I don't know how to get a specific url link to the video):
Interestingly, the MSM spin on the Tolls' statements about a "market bottom" are not entirely accurate. Toll is very hedgy and wishy-washy about calling a bottom of the market. His tone of voice, facial expressions and body language all suggest to me that he really doesn't believe we're at the bottom yet.
I just received an interesting phone call from a realtor in TX. I completed a form on her web site to gain access to the property search function so she gave me a follow up call. No problem since I am in the market to buy.
She goes on and on about how busy they are this Holiday Season; the exact words were, "We are swamped with business now and last December it wasn't worth coming in to the office".
Now, the question that keeps rattling around in my hollow head is if she is "swamped", why is she cold calling on a contact who left the info a month ago and said was not interested in buying.
Dunno.....maybe she's just a super overachiever.
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March 15, 2007
Experts Miffed as Housing Continues to Plunge
San Francisco -- William Wilbur C.R. "Dick" stands in the entry of a prime piece of San Francisco real estate. Dick, a realtor in San Francisco's posh Marina neighborhood, wonders where all the buyers have gone. "Luxury condos like this have been selling here for as long as they've been building them. I don't know where all the buyers are hiding, but the real buying season doesn't start for a couple of months, after kids get out of school."
Dick, like many other realtors in sky-high areas like San Francisco, have already endured nearly a year of anemic sales, stubborn sellers, and the largest culling of their profession on record. "Prices always go up here, that's historical fact. We were up about 5-6% last year, in fact", reassures Dick.
But the fear is palpable. In fact, buyers have not returned, and prices are down nationally. San Francisco has seen modest home price drops, compared to some other areas, posting a respectable 8% drop in 2006. Southern Florida has not been so lucky. Plagued by rampant overbuilding, speculative fervor, and an anemic local economy, Southern Florida communities have seen over 20% price drops, with no sign of relief in 2007.
In fact, many areas in which home builders targeted for massive new construction activity are now seeing double-digit price drops, mostly attributable to a nearly 2 year backlog of unsold new homes. "Home builders are much more willing than individual home owners to drop prices. I think we've seen capitulation among home builders; they've exhausted all other incentive options, and now they're left with price." Mr. Iwasright is one of the short list of economists who predicted that the US housing slowdown would be far worse than either markets or the media expected. "I've appeared on television numerous times, but only recently have people begun to listen. I'm afraid it's probably too late now."
Back in San Francisco, Dick loads some boxes into the trunk of his standard issue Lexus. "Sellers are starting to price to sell. I'm seeing a few listings reduce prices by a couple thousand dollars, but those are usually in less desirable parts of the city. But this area is unique; here, we're protected from the kind of drops they're seeing in Las Vegas and San Diego. Here, it always goes up. In fact, look at this condo, which went almost a quarter million over asking just a couple months ago!" As Dick drives off down the street, he passes through a virtual sea of "For Sale" signs."
Randy H appears every fortnight in this publication.
**Disclaimer: What appears here are fictional works; any similarities to names or places are coincidence. Any offense taken by those who would be offended is well deserved.
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