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An Antidote to Corporate Media
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skibum posted:
> Remember how I’ve mentioned a few times that
> Boston is one of the cities leading the housing
> downturn? Well, check this out:
> The headline, “All Hub (ie, Boston) gains since
> March ’04 vanishâ€
The article says:
> Statewide, Warren reported median house prices
> fell at a 6.9 percent annual rate to hit $312,000.
> Median condo prices likewise declined 4.8 percent
> to $261,750
Whenever I see home prices around Boston and NYC that are about half the price of the SF Bay Area it reminds me that we have a long way to drop…
Daily, I enjoy patrick.net,
Nouriel Roubini's blog-
rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
also, for a list of current articles-
www.latestblognews.com/portal.form?
The Charles Hugh Smith Weblog- www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Collectively the above sites give me a good overview of the real estate debacle that our nation is facing, and a myriad of views on the topic. What surprises me is the optimistic view common in the press, and most investment periodicals. Soft landing....blah blah....where we expected to be....goldilocks....expected adjustment ....etc.
Some very bright minds can see the stock market collapse that will likely come like a thief in the night. THE BULL CLIMBS THE STAIRS, BUT THE BEAR JUMPS OUT THE WINDOW. The DOW highs, adjusted for our decline in dollar value are not highs at all. Convert previous highs by the euro conversion rate of the day. The volatility of our stocks will be evident when the lag factor of unemployment and the binge of equity tapping has passed. Contemplate Kondratieff winter. It is coming.
I am increasingly convinced that we are seeing only the tip of the iceberg in terms of our national financial woes, our decline as a world economic and military leader, and the relative strength of our currency.
We have many perfect storm components that are worse than those around at the time of the great depression. Note the excellent insight at www.dollarcollapse.com. Time will tell, but there are those who think we are seeing the beginning of the death of our great civilization, as history repeats itself. Note the "Mexifornia" syndrome.
What is going to happen when China, Japan, India, Germany, and other nations no longer accept American funny money printed to pay our daily BILLION dollar trade deficit, or the hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars that we pay annually on interest alone, for our national debt?
How low will the mortgage industry allow rates to go in order to stem the tsunami of foreclosures on the horizon?
Check http://www.bankrate.com/brm/graphs/graph_trend.asp?web=brm for handy at- a- glance current fixed mortgage rate averages, which are at 5.61% as of today. Previous bubbles have seen major interest rate declines. What will be majorly lower than 5.61% ?
When $1.7 TRILLION worth of Frankenstein, suicide, neg-am, teaser rate, or neutron bomb financing resets next year, how low will fixed rates be pushed?
Randy H
2006 Dec 4, 12:29pm
Peter P,
I added a little disclaimer of sorts. I wouldn't sweat it. We still have the First Amendment left.
Peter P
2006 Dec 4, 12:32pm
Any offense taken by those who would be offended is well deserved.
LOL :lol:
What is going to happen when China, Japan, India, Germany, and other nations no longer accept American funny money printed to pay our daily BILLION dollar trade deficit, or the hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars that we pay annually on interest alone, for our national debt?
Carrier task force groups? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_navy#Aircraft_carriers\
Don't forget boys and girls we do still make one thing well in the US.
SFWoman, would love to meet you for snacks or beverages. How's about Fri-day? Remember I'm 37% less offensive in person. Randal H, sushi?
Is it a special area or something where you get skrewd in every industry housing, commodities etc?
Have you ever been bumped for a job given to a mid aged MPB (male pattern baldness) leather boy? Never underestimate the power of buttless chaps. SF Uber Alles.
Crash? What crash? The "crash" depends on one thing and one thing only, how many fucknobs bought with "exotic loans"? Someone somewhere must have this stat. How many, when reset. That tells the magnitude of the crash. Otherwise it's just jackingoff billing the man for boredom during the day.
Peter P. sushi in SF this week or weekend?
April 1, 2007
We tell ourselves stories in order to live. Only, I'm not certain the story I've been telling these past two years is really mine.
The speaker, attractive 24-year-old Toulouse native Jeanne Bertrand, is waiting - as I am - for the doors of Bullock's to open, and a surfeit of caffeine has overcome her natural reserve.
Relais et Chateau placed me here last year, and it all seemed rather refreshing then, though I've never owned so much black gabardine before. You see it was necessaire to remain visible against the taupe. But now the listers have become sniffy - and among buyers there is sangfroid. What is one to do? Je m'ennui.
Someone asked me what M.David at NAR has to say of all this. I've heard reports that he has become deaf but, really, he only thinks he is deaf because he no longer hears himself talked about.
For myself, I think Hong Kong. I realize it is on the latte/blackberry axis, but this should be amusing for awhile, no? Do they wear black in Hong Kong?
SFWoman,
The Realty Times article you posted was very revealing. What it ultimately shows us is that in 2003 "only" 11% of home sales were to investors. By 2004 (the AG quotes are from OCTOBER 2004!) that number would more than triple to 36%. 2005? 40%!
What in essence we've allowed to happen is to turn rank and file local lenders into VC guys! Due in large part to the "primary residence" wink/nod rubber stamp approval this crowd wasn't even playing by the normal rules that govern commercial/investment property!
Imagine for just a minute walking into a commercial lender and telling them you have no experience other than making mortgage payments and that you would like to purchase a parking garage, airplane hangar and strip mall with a zero down I/O loan? Imagine further that you can now access this capital just by going to their web-site!
If this isn't a recipe for a "Silent Spring" what is?
George,
Thanks and I know I speak for all at patrick.net when I say we wish you well in ALL your future endeavors!
So much for the "throw the bums out" theory of firming rents eh? Since I'm a sales guy too I always try to couch things in terms of, well...... what kind of script could we come up with for the "Spring Miracle 2007"? What are your fellow agents saying? What are they basing this on? I mean other than blind faith?
Peter P
2006 Dec 4, 11:09pm
Peter P. sushi in SF this week or weekend?
Sure. Who else is coming? Where should we go?
George,
Now imagine having to go back to all of the people that bought homes in 04-05 and tell them, "It's not bad enough you couldn't sell that home for anything near what YOU paid for it but it's gone negative equity so you'll have to send a check in before close of business Friday or we'll have to sell it out from under you!"
(Think NASDAQ 2000-2002)
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:02am
OT, but do you guys know where I can get a hold of some dragon fruits (hylocereus undatus)?
Peter P,
All you have to do is put salt on a dragon's tail and you'll have all the dragon fruit you like!
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:12am
All you have to do is put salt on a dragon’s tail and you’ll have all the dragon fruit you like!
Huh?
Paul: (from previous) OT
My understanding of a "bucket shop" is when a MF manager is getting out of a position they can contract a firm to peddle the shares to retail investors to support the stock as they liquidate the position. I'd have to say that GCI is a market maker using the the NYSE to price their CFD's. In all actuality you would never be able to take "physical possession" of any shares, period.
All others proceed to "the Real Estate Heaven of 2007"!
Peter P,
When we were kids grandparents would tell us, "If you want to catch a bird, all you have to do is put salt on his tail". Well for crissakes granny if I could put salt on his tail......
I think food is 2 times more expensive there for some reason.
Nah, it's only 20% more.
http://www.burbed.com/2006/11/23/how-to-save-20-on-your-groceries-for-thanksgiving/
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:41am
Nah, it’s only 20% more.
And it is 20% more because housing is 20% more? Sad.
Randy H
2006 Dec 5, 12:41am
Surfer-X,
Fri-day? Remember I’m 37% less offensive in person. Randal H, sushi?
Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 12:50am
Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.
Any good sushi restaurant with easy parking?
Any good sushi restaurant with easy parking?
I like Ebisu in the Inner Sunset and Grandeho Kamelkyo in Cole Valley.
You heard it here! Home prices have bottomed out! It's only up from here (according to the home builders, to be specific...)
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/05/news/companies/toll_brothers/index.htm?postversion=2006120512
Weren't there plenty of articles calling the bottom of the last downturn ('89-'94) all the way down to the bottom five years later?
Randy H,
Psst. (Shorter over @ Ben's tearing his heart out over the builders rally). Psst. (It's very funny to hear shorters say 'the market just doesn't make sense any more', it's just gambling, researching doesn't pay! yada yada)
Hey! What are we whispering for? Classic case of survivor's bias meets gone to the well one too many times.
skibum,
Psst. (The "real" reason the builders are rallying is b/c of that stoopid Gates Foundation rumor) not an unbalanced article with a who's who of RE shills being quoted. Sush. (Just between you, me and the fence post).
Did any of you folks catch this piece of evilness?
http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2006/12/01/sf_mls_to_shut_down_public_internet_access.php
The URL says it all...
Randy H
2006 Dec 5, 2:08am
DinOR,
LOL. Shorting is tough business. Markets can remain "irrational longer than you can remain..."
Making a fundamentals based argument to short is sort of funny, considering that fundamentals work much better to justify long positions.
How do these guys know the HB stocks aren't already priced towards the forward looking bottom? There are lots of smart people, and many who've already thought many moves ahead. Weren't a couple of the smaller HBs trading at just about cash last month? Priced below that indicate the market is pricing in bankruptcy likelihood. I rather think most of the HBs will just get acquired by bigger HBs, not go bankrupt.
Randy H,
So true. I don't really track them but how can you NOT have heard several were at book value, so........?
This is a large part of the reason I make every effort to stay not only informed, but balanced. Like I say it's o.k to be bearish about certain things at certain times but always remember; Bears don't "create" anything!
When I was in HS one kid really hated me and bet I wouldn't make the team. Then he bet me I'd break my arm. When that didn't happen.......
Surfer-X,
Fri-day? Remember I’m 37% less offensive in person. Randal H, sushi?
Sounds great. We could see if we could all meet somewhere in SF.
Done, I'm good Friday or Saturday
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:33am
There are lots of smart people, and many who’ve already thought many moves ahead.
The Market is one of the places in which one can become too smart.
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:34am
Done, I’m good Friday or Saturday
Cool. I should be free Friday night or Saturday. Weather may not be nice though.
Weather may not be nice though.
How can this be possible? I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:38am
I actually believe that money can be made only when the market moves between irrational extremes. (When it is rational, every piece of information is already priced-in.)
Peter P
2006 Dec 5, 2:39am
How can this be possible? I thought Unicorns and carebears were in charge of weather in the glorious bay area?
Unicorns and carebears are out flipping properties.
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March 15, 2007
Experts Miffed as Housing Continues to Plunge
San Francisco -- William Wilbur C.R. "Dick" stands in the entry of a prime piece of San Francisco real estate. Dick, a realtor in San Francisco's posh Marina neighborhood, wonders where all the buyers have gone. "Luxury condos like this have been selling here for as long as they've been building them. I don't know where all the buyers are hiding, but the real buying season doesn't start for a couple of months, after kids get out of school."
Dick, like many other realtors in sky-high areas like San Francisco, have already endured nearly a year of anemic sales, stubborn sellers, and the largest culling of their profession on record. "Prices always go up here, that's historical fact. We were up about 5-6% last year, in fact", reassures Dick.
But the fear is palpable. In fact, buyers have not returned, and prices are down nationally. San Francisco has seen modest home price drops, compared to some other areas, posting a respectable 8% drop in 2006. Southern Florida has not been so lucky. Plagued by rampant overbuilding, speculative fervor, and an anemic local economy, Southern Florida communities have seen over 20% price drops, with no sign of relief in 2007.
In fact, many areas in which home builders targeted for massive new construction activity are now seeing double-digit price drops, mostly attributable to a nearly 2 year backlog of unsold new homes. "Home builders are much more willing than individual home owners to drop prices. I think we've seen capitulation among home builders; they've exhausted all other incentive options, and now they're left with price." Mr. Iwasright is one of the short list of economists who predicted that the US housing slowdown would be far worse than either markets or the media expected. "I've appeared on television numerous times, but only recently have people begun to listen. I'm afraid it's probably too late now."
Back in San Francisco, Dick loads some boxes into the trunk of his standard issue Lexus. "Sellers are starting to price to sell. I'm seeing a few listings reduce prices by a couple thousand dollars, but those are usually in less desirable parts of the city. But this area is unique; here, we're protected from the kind of drops they're seeing in Las Vegas and San Diego. Here, it always goes up. In fact, look at this condo, which went almost a quarter million over asking just a couple months ago!" As Dick drives off down the street, he passes through a virtual sea of "For Sale" signs."
Randy H appears every fortnight in this publication.
**Disclaimer: What appears here are fictional works; any similarities to names or places are coincidence. Any offense taken by those who would be offended is well deserved.
#housing