patrick.net

"It’s possible that a significant number of sales that would otherwise have closed escrow in April were delayed until May as buyers tried to take advantage of new state tax credits effective May 1."

Not possible, but certainty. combine April and May to get a better picture of sales and price activity. Or check April activity nationally.

if prices are flat in an inflationary environment, that means they are going down.

San Diego-based MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday that last month's median of $285,000 was up from $247,000 in April 2009. Last month's median was unchanged from March. Inflation should never be expressed in a month to month basis.

I think we're headed down as well, but these article and statement doesn't prove a point.

SF ace says

Inflation should never be expressed in a month to month basis.

Seems a rather one-sided rule. Last year, the month-to-month price increases, while still down YOY, were trumpeted all over the mainstream media. "Should never be expressed" is too rigid a rule. A trend can become obvious long before the YOY figures actually reverse, as became clear last year during the mini-bubble/dead-cat bounce.

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I'm sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is 'flat'???

'The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ' DQNews.com

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???
‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Gee Willikers! Ya think? Wow, you're a freaking genius for spotting that. Nobody else had any idea that prices had gone up last year. Doy.

Wait until rates hit double-digits in a couple of years. Most of the people that recently bought will feel the pain and will regret their purchase. Also, did you know we have about 8.5 yrs of housing inventory in this country? Common sense tells me that prices will have to plummet.

WillyWanker says

Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year.

Not when the $8000 tax credit and interest rate diff is factored out.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=MORTG

and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009

Funny thing is FHA rates are DOWN 15% from last April.

Cheaper money = higher purchase price. This isn't rocket science.

The Original Bankster says

if prices are flat in an inflationary environment, that means they are going down.

The big error I see everyone making is treating all prices as part of inflation, as if every price will rise or fall in lockstep.

Without wage inflation there can be no price inflation, only reallocation. Some of this might be substitution (hamburger for steak, the beach for Disneyland), but at the end of the day people will only pay for housing what they can afford to pay, and the entire housing stock we have now has done been built and cannot be withheld from the market (and its market price) without penalty (except for landlords with juicy Prop 13 buffers -- Damn you Howard Jarvis, damn you to HELL!1!!!).

Looking at current months zips tell you something... .
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx

LOL! Beverly Hills down 38%... Malibu down 20% Venice down 27% and West Hollywood down big time at 16-27%.. i expect similar results to continue.

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???

‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Gee Willikers! Ya think? Wow, you’re a freaking genius for spotting that. Nobody else had any idea that prices had gone up last year. Doy.

Gamy, you actually clicked the link? Wow! I would have expected you to only have read the OP~~~and nothing else. I'm impressed by your prowess and the friggin depth of your research. Way to go. The OP failed to point it out, and I figured someone gamy like you needed the extra bit of info. Mybad.

thomas.wong1986 says

Looking at current months zips tell you something… .

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx
LOL! Beverly Hills down 38%… Malibu down 20% Venice down 27% and West Hollywood down big time at 16-27%.. i expect similar results to continue.

Santa Monica 90402 UP 65.1%...Playa Del Rey UP 65.8%...Pasadena 91106 UP 85.9%...Encino 91316 UP 46.1%...Marina Del Rey UP 93.7% LOL, I guess we can expect 'similar results' to continue, as well?

WillyWanker says

Santa Monica 90402 UP 65.1%…Playa Del Rey UP 65.8%…Pasadena 91106 UP 85.9%…Encino 91316 UP 46.1%…Marina Del Rey UP 93.7% LOL, I guess we can expect ’similar results’ to continue, as well?

Doubtful on that end. I expect in the long run to see volatilite zig zag pattern to continue.

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???
‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Indeed someone did miss the first sentence in the article....

"Southern California’s housing market leveled off last month as sales activity migrated ever-so-slightly from inland bargain areas toward entry- and mid-market neighborhoods closer to the coast. The overall median price was unchanged from the month before, but it jumped compared with April 2009’s low point, a real estate information service reported."

WillyWanker says

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???
‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Gee Willikers! Ya think? Wow, you’re a freaking genius for spotting that. Nobody else had any idea that prices had gone up last year. Doy.

Gamy, you actually clicked the link? Wow! I would have expected you to only have read the OP~~~and nothing else. I’m impressed by your prowess and the friggin depth of your research. Way to go. The OP failed to point it out, and I figured someone gamy like you needed the extra bit of info. Mybad.

The OP said "sales fell from March to April and the median price was flat", which is true. No, he didn't point out EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE UNIVERSE. That doesn't mean he failed. We know that prices are up YOY, at least anyone who hasn't been living under a rock for the past year. Does the blindingly obvious really impress you? Did you really not know that already? You just now found out when you clicked on that link? Amazing. WTF is "gamy"? Some sophmoric insult?

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???

‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Gee Willikers! Ya think? Wow, you’re a freaking genius for spotting that. Nobody else had any idea that prices had gone up last year. Doy.

Gamy, you actually clicked the link? Wow! I would have expected you to only have read the OP~~~and nothing else. I’m impressed by your prowess and the friggin depth of your research. Way to go. The OP failed to point it out, and I figured someone gamy like you needed the extra bit of info. Mybad.

The OP said “sales fell from March to April and the median price was flat”, which is true. No, he didn’t point out EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE UNIVERSE. That doesn’t mean he failed. We know that prices are up YOY, at least anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock for the past year. Does the blindingly obvious really impress you? Did you really not know that already? You just now found out when you clicked on that link? Amazing. WTF is “gamy”? Some sophmoric insult?

Who cares about 'EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE UNIVERSE'? How about something pivotal in the article? And, yes, the 'blindingly obvious' needs to be pointed out so that people who are deliberately obtuse might get a larger picture.

And thanks for the malapropism: 'Some SOPHMORIC insult?' You are a barrel of laughs. :P

thomas.wong1986 says

WillyWanker says

Santa Monica 90402 UP 65.1%…Playa Del Rey UP 65.8%…Pasadena 91106 UP 85.9%…Encino 91316 UP 46.1%…Marina Del Rey UP 93.7% LOL, I guess we can expect ’similar results’ to continue, as well?

Doubtful on that end. I expect in the long run to see volatilite zig zag pattern to continue.

I guess when the numbers don't support your premise, that we can no longer trust 'similar results to continue'. But when the numbers suit you, you believe that THAT trend will continue? :/ I agree with you, however, we will, more than likely, see a volatility in the numbers. But, I predict that Southern California median prices will be higher April 2011 than they were April 2010. IMHO, the best time to have bought might have been last year, when everyone was in panic mode. I'm still waiting for the Bay Area to drop down to a price point that I can afford. It hasn't done so yet. I wait patiently. Bay Area prices are up 21.7% YOY. Distressing numbers for those waiting to buy.

Jimmy says

Wait until rates hit double-digits in a couple of years. Most of the people that recently bought will feel the pain and will regret their purchase. Also, did you know we have about 8.5 yrs of housing inventory in this country? Common sense tells me that prices will have to plummet.

Since when did the housing market work on common sense?

OCExRenter says

Since when did the housing market work on common sense?

It made perfect sense to buy in 2000-2004 and sell in 2005-2006.

At any give time, half of the market is always right : )

WillyWanker says

Who cares about ‘EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE UNIVERSE’? How about something pivotal in the article? And, yes, the ‘blindingly obvious’ needs to be pointed out so that people who are deliberately obtuse might get a larger picture.

You seem to be the only one obtuse enough not to already know that prices went up last year. Here's a clue: the fact that someone didn't state the blindingly obvious doesn't mean they were hiding it. Pick up a newspaper once in awhile like the rest of us.

And thanks for the malapropism: ‘Some SOPHMORIC insult?’ You are a barrel of laughs.

Because I left out an 'o'? That would be a misspelling, not a malapropism. Wow, I misspelled one word in my entire post. What a freaking laugh riot that is. Are you always this big a tool?

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???

‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Ever think that more higher end homes were sold this year than last year... Maybe more dumpy foreclosures were unloaded last year dragging down the median home price.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE MEANS NOTHING in the current environment... There are so few homes selling still compared to the peak market that if you throw in a few million dollar home sales into the equation the median market numbers rise dramatically.

A better test of if home prices are going up or not is to flag a bunch of homes on REDFIN and they'll email you when asking prices rise or fall... Since the tax credit has ended I'm getting emails on a daily basis that my FAVORITE homes asking prices are falling $20-30K.

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

Who cares about ‘EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE UNIVERSE’? How about something pivotal in the article? And, yes, the ‘blindingly obvious’ needs to be pointed out so that people who are deliberately obtuse might get a larger picture.

You seem to be the only one obtuse enough not to already know that prices went up last year. Here’s a clue: the fact that someone didn’t state the blindingly obvious doesn’t mean they were hiding it. Pick up a newspaper once in awhile like the rest of us.

And thanks for the malapropism: ‘Some SOPHMORIC insult?’ You are a barrel of laughs.

Because I left out an ‘o’? That would be a misspelling, not a malapropism. Wow, I misspelled one word in my entire post. What a freaking laugh riot that is. Are you always this big a tool?

Actually, no, the obtuse one I was writing about would be you. You've shown no trace of acuity. I was hoping it wouldn't be necessary to point that out, but you leave me no other choice. Impressed as I am by your assertion of reading a newspaper, I'm sure that the only one you pick up has the word 'Enquirer' in its title.

'Sophmoric' insults aside, you started a flame war and now, appear to have your panties in a wad over it.

Relax, Gamy, it's only a message board. :P

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

The median price is up over 15% YOY!!! I’m sorry, but did you fail to read that in the DQ article? Last year it was cheaper to buy a house than it is this year. I guess if prices go up another 15% next year, you will be cheering that the market is ‘flat’???

‘The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, the same as in March, and up 15.4 percent from $247,000 for April 2009, which was the low point of the current cycle. ‘ DQNews.com

Gee Willikers! Ya think? Wow, you’re a freaking genius for spotting that. Nobody else had any idea that prices had gone up last year. Doy.

Gamy, you actually clicked the link? Wow! I would have expected you to only have read the OP~~~and nothing else. I’m impressed by your prowess and the friggin depth of your research. Way to go. The OP failed to point it out, and I figured someone gamy like you needed the extra bit of info. Mybad.

The OP said “sales fell from March to April and the median price was flat”, which is true. No, he didn’t point out EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE UNIVERSE. That doesn’t mean he failed. We know that prices are up YOY, at least anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock for the past year. Does the blindingly obvious really impress you? Did you really not know that already? You just now found out when you clicked on that link? Amazing. WTF is “gamy”? Some sophmoric insult?

Actually, Gamy, the OP 'said' NOTHING, as the OP did not 'speak'. The OP 'WROTE' that 'sales fell from March...' :P

WillyWanker says

Actually, Gamy, the OP ’said’ NOTHING, as the OP did not ’speak’. The OP ‘WROTE’ that ’sales fell from March…’

My god - I think you may be legally retarded. Better go get yourself checked. I would be concerned that maybe you've suffered a mild stroke, but you're such a human sh1t stain that I don't really care. How about you go away and let the adults talk now, hmmm?

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

Actually, Gamy, the OP ’said’ NOTHING, as the OP did not ’speak’. The OP ‘WROTE’ that ’sales fell from March…’

My god - I think you may be legally retarded. Better go get yourself checked. I would be concerned that maybe you’ve suffered a mild stroke, but you’re such a human sh1t stain that I don’t really care. How about you go away and let the adults talk now, hmmm?

Another patented bit of stupidity from the board idiot. Obviously a moron (and a bag of sh*t), such as you, doesn't comprehend the difference between the SPOKEN and the WRITTEN word. Quelle surprise! Gamy, I'm not about to go anywhere, so quit your whining and bellyaching, since it's YOU who started this. Don't cry now because you drew undue attention to your 'SOPHMORIC' posts. No one but YOU had a hand in them.

Gamy, get well soon. Or not. :P

WillyWanker says

gameisrigged says

WillyWanker says

Actually, Gamy, the OP ’said’ NOTHING, as the OP did not ’speak’. The OP ‘WROTE’ that ’sales fell from March…’

My god - I think you may be legally retarded. Better go get yourself checked. I would be concerned that maybe you’ve suffered a mild stroke, but you’re such a human sh1t stain that I don’t really care. How about you go away and let the adults talk now, hmmm?

Another patented bit of stupidity from the board idiot. Obviously a moron (and a bag of sh*t), such as you, doesn’t comprehend the difference between the SPOKEN and the WRITTEN word. Quelle surprise! Gamy, I’m not about to go anywhere, so quit your whining and bellyaching, since it’s YOU who started this. Don’t cry now because you drew undue attention to your ‘SOPHMORIC’ posts. No one but YOU had a hand in them.
Gamy, get well soon. Or not.

How cute. You really think you're an intellectual because you used a French word and some 5-star "word-a-day" entries like "acuity". Did you actually get all the way through that post before you spewed your load imagining how clever you are? I especially like your fantasy that you "got me" because I used a figure of speech in referring to something you 'said', as opposed to 'wrote'. That kind of sh1t really gets you excited, huh? Did you call your Mom down to the basement to show her how you are lord of the internet?

What a f#cking loser troll you are. I never imagined anyone could get so upset just because I pointed out your stupidity in bringing up a point that everyone except you is already aware of. That really upset you, didn't it? Did you cry?

Willy Wanker

"I sure got him with my acuity!"

GamyIsRigged: 'I'm going to teach some of these SOPHMORIC posters a thing or two about life' :P

I doubt you have a mother or anyone, anywhere who could possibly care one whit about you. I doubt you care about yourself.

Get well soon, Gamy. Otherwise, amuse-moi.

Ooh, it turns me on when you speak French like that, you hot stud, you.

gameisrigged: 'With VIAGRA I am SuperMan'

be polite?

I'm done here. Willy, you have serious personality issues. Seek help.

gameisrigged says

I’m done here. Willy, you have serious personality issues. Seek help.

Dr. gameisrigged hard at work.

Thank~you for your internet analysis. :P