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Don't Panic!


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2007 Feb 7, 10:35am   22,859 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Inspired by Rainman18 (from Ben Jones' blog):

Expect real estate prices to decline in the coming year
Redlandsdailyfacts.com
posted 02/06/2007

Attention everyone:
"When put into perspective of a 10-year pattern, the downturn should have been expected based on the huge run up since 2002."

"...No reason to panic if you purchased your home for the quiet peaceful enjoyment of it" (vs. appreciation)

"Only the speculators and flippers ...are in any trouble at all."

"...and the last ones that purchased in 2005-2006..."

"The rest of us just need to continue to enjoy our homes, unless we were using it as an automatic teller machine."

Crickets: (Chirp chirp, Chirp chirp...)

#housing

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73   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 3:51pm  

CB :

Why would these people want to work at your startup then?

Dude, you are not doubting FaceReality here, are you ? Now now, he says "not everyone" makes it this much. So don't feel too bad.

Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but to see how common folks(NOT the HaHa and FaceReality types) do check out, Fortune's list of 100 best companies to work for.
http://tinyurl.com/yd44o6

Average TECHNICAL salary (and REMEMBER this includes OTHER CASH COMPENSATION on top of pay ... which I assume means bonus etc and maybe even other benefits, but they don't clarify that)

6. Network Appliance (NTAP) $129,000
11. Cisco Systems (CSCO) $123,021
44. Yahoo (YHOO) $126,000

These are among the best companies to work for. But apart from this pathetic gang and likes, everyone else makes over 200K.

74   lex   2007 Feb 7, 3:51pm  


I also interviewed half a dozen more people who are currently making over $200K a year in senior engineering, marketing, and product management positions.

HA HA is a loser.

75   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 4:06pm  

I also watch HOUSE every week. That Hugh Laurie is AMAZING!

Yes, absolutely.

I am not into MD stuff at all. But I am amazed.

76   Bruce   2007 Feb 7, 5:19pm  

SFWoman (from previous thread),

Oh yes, the dining problem. But there are a few places which stand out from the rest. So here goes...

Alla Colomba. You've already found this one.

Da Fiore. On the Campo San Polo. Superb fish, risotto, mascarpone. San Polo.

Cipriani. Breakfast in the hotel garden. The fare's good, the setting is a pleasure. Giudecca.

Harry's Dolci. Same lunches as Harry's, but much nicer situation. Far too crowded on Sundays - reserve a table? Giudecca.

There's a cafe Cucciolo on the Zattere with very good coffee. Dorsoduro.

You might enjoy Vino Vino (wine bar) in the Calle della Veste. Musicians from La Fenice have adopted the place. San Marco.

Not food, but you might enjoy V. Trois on Campo San Maurizio - only place permitted to sell Fortuny cotton damasks. The prices make your head spin, but then so do the fabrics. San Marco.

Almost forgot Il Fornaio. Nice bakery and very nice pate. Also San Marco.

Hope this helps...

77   Michael Holliday   2007 Feb 7, 10:17pm  

cruzpo Says:

Santa Cruz is melting. July 2006(peak), average 882,000, Jan 2007 average $795,000. $87,000 vaporized, ouch!
_____

Michael Holliday casts a whimsical gaze out the window, westward, toward California from Arizona, raises a curious eyebrow, smirks wryly, grabs a handful of Cheetos, munches on them for a few seconds, reaches for a tall glass of Hi-C fruit punch and drinks it heartily, brushes the crumbs off his shirt, wipes the Hi-C fruit punch residue mustache off his face with his shirt, belches, yawns deeply, briefly scratches the itch on his buttocks and exclaims, "burn, baby burn!"

He then falls into a deep, peaceful sleep luxuriating in the fact that, mercifully for us all, reality is finally exerting itself in the housing market (as painful as it is, and will be for many).

The End...

78   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 10:25pm  

When every place is special, no place is.

79   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 10:30pm  

Hmm, if we're doing free formed promotions for our favorite shows, I must put in a good word for Friday Night Lights. Perfect, just absolutely perfect. I still can't comprehend football but I'm hooked. NBC also put all the episodes online.

80   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 11:23pm  

(chirp chirp, chirp chirp)

Anyone know any good cricket dishes? :)

(I hear they're delicious!)

81   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 11:36pm  

StuckinBA,

Now just b/c CFC and TOL happen to be down hard (so far) I don't want your new found faith in the PPT shaken! (It's still plenty early!)

82   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 12:41am  

First class action suit; Just as I was saying, the FB's who were still able hold on to their houses will be bailed out by the taxpayers. This is just the first and definetly not the last.

Use your stupidity to your advantage. Sign up for a 1.95% loan and believe that it will stay at that rate for 5 years and when it doesn't, sue the lender who will not have the funds to pay you so all of the generous taxpayers; including those of us who aren't stupid enough to sign up for such a loan will foot the bill.

83   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 12:54am  

Hmm, if we’re doing free formed promotions for our favorite shows, I must put in a good word for Friday Night Lights. Perfect, just absolutely perfect. I still can’t comprehend football but I’m hooked. NBC also put all the episodes online.

I do not understand football at all.

My wife just love watching Heroes and 30 Rock.

30 Rock is quite funny. We like Alec Baldwin a lot.

84   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 12:55am  

When every place is special, no place is.

Getting metaphysical...

85   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 12:57am  

carlorossi, it is all in the stars.

86   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 12:58am  

Million dollar question: will TV make me fat?

87   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 1:05am  

allah,

Good to see ya' btw and thanks for the chuckle of the day!

Ahem, I guess the minute junior's tippy toe hits the ink for the birth certificate "college costs are looming"? O.K so they had FOUR kids (whatever). Without knowing the kids ages it might seem hard to pass judgement on this folks but uh..... I CAN and I WILL!

This financial "band aid" (however thoughtfully applied) would have been doomed even without the loan re-set! This is just another version of equity ATM "raiding" only in this instance on a monthly basis. Had their home continued to appreciate wildly, this wouldn't be an issue. Perhaps this couple used the same fore thought when contemplating contraception?

This sets a horrible legal precedent. :(

88   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 1:08am  

Moved to Italy....... hmm....

Finally! A troll with taste! :)

89   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 1:11am  

A troll with taste!

I do want to troll the Tuscany region.

Tuscany bean soup. Yum.

90   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 1:20am  

carlorossi,

The money migrated from one bubble to the next. Retrospectively it makes sense.

There seemed to be a slight downturn in real estate in the city in 2001. Rents collapsed, lots of liquidity appeared in the money supply, the bubble mentality prevailed and jumped from tech stocks to real estate.

Just assume that people are greedy, want to use their houses appreciation to subsidize their lifestyle, and aren't very rational thinkers when it comes to money decisions. The real estate bubble then makes total sense.

91   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 1:22am  

"Million dollar question: will TV make me fat? "

Only if you're on it.

92   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 1:25am  

I find it hard to believe that BA house would beat a house in Italy, provided that they're of equal value in 2001. The Euro has almost doubled against the US. Even if that farm house stayed at the same price in Euro, it would have doubled in USD.

93   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 1:26am  

Peter P,

My favorite is what my old buddy calls "baccalada"(sp?)

Extra virgin olive oil

2 whole garlic

crushed rep pepper

2 cans anchovy fillets

sprinkle with toasted Italian Style (TM) bread crumbs

Man is it good! (Kind of stinks up the house for a while) but who CARES!

Great for pasta or even just dipping bread in.

Yes TV makes you fat. That'll be one "meellion" thank you.

94   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 1:30am  

"The real estate bubble then makes total sense"

Stay current with NAAVLP payment.

Fund lifestyle via MEW.

Take out trash, become meellionaire!

What's not to like? :)

95   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 1:31am  

astrid,

It's not nearly doubled yet, thankfully.

Did you see this?

"NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Thursday it expects quarterly orders and home-building revenue to fall significantly and sees a greater-than-expected charge to write down land values, sending its shares lower by nearly 4 percent.

For about a year, home building has fallen off sharply as the U.S. housing demand dropped due to high prices and interest rates. Investors, home builders and other industry watchers have been looking for signs of a trough.

Editors Choice: Best pictures"It does not look better," Majestic Research analyst John Tomlinson said."

96   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 1:35am  

"demand dropped due to high prices and interest rates"

So...... 6 and 3/8ths was all it took to kill this thing?

97   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 1:35am  

OK, I just spoke to my brother in upstate NY, they got about four feet of snow the past couple of days. There are reasons the real estate is cheap there.

98   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 1:37am  

SFWoman,

Yeah, I'm an idiot for confusing the exchange rate of Pound for the Euro.

Still, more than 30% appreciation against the dollar, I don't see what Mr. Tuscan Farmhouse has to worry about.

99   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 1:40am  

astrid,

Because the closest Mr. Under the Tuscan Sun has been to Italy is when he was drinking his Carlo and Rossi Sangria (TM)?

It's all the rage w/FB's! That and Top Ramen (TM)

100   Claire   2007 Feb 8, 1:50am  

So people were using ARMs in the BA 3 years ago, my husbands co-worker who always says how much his townhouse has gone up in value has just had to re-fi because his payments went up *a lot* - didn't get all the gory details, but I'm pretty sure that they re-fi'd to another ARM - 3 years ago the rates were really good for a 30 yr fixed - what was he thinking? Luckily he had equity in his house so he could re-fi.

101   Stretch002   2007 Feb 8, 1:51am  

We should be thanking all of these buyers who are catching the falling knives. They are allowing the market to create new comps. Comps which are LOWER than they were last year. This will keep the momementum swinging back towards the longterm trend line.

Also, anyone ever notice how the housing bulls always imply that a renters life sucks? Why is that? I sold my house a month ago and am LOVING renting. I rent a house which is 40% larger, I am in a better city/neighborhood, and am saving $200 a month versus what I paid as an "owner" not counting maintenance etc. I have seen the articles and countless examples of why buying is better than renting long term. I agree with these articles. However, in the short term, housing seems to be overpriced and I refuse to pay the premium necessary to purchase at this time.

102   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 1:53am  

DinOR, thanks for the recipe!

103   Claire   2007 Feb 8, 1:53am  

Stretch002 - that is exactly why we decided to not buy - we are in a much better neigborhood, with better schools and lower expenses than if we had bought something.

104   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 1:56am  

JBR is a social disease, don't yah know? Even worse, it's like Syphilis - you can pass it to your spouse, your kids, your "intimate" friends. Some *experts* observed school delinquincy, impotence, nymphomania, inordinate blogging time and sanity amongst the JBR population.

105   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 1:58am  

Of course, people will catch the proverbial falling knives, 'specially when there ain't much velocity.

IF and when the "meltdown" comes, no one will be interested in bottom fishing. Most of you will rather continue renting.

The psychology will be intense.

106   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 2:03am  

Now just b/c CFC and TOL happen to be down hard (so far) I don’t want your new found faith in the PPT shaken! (It’s still plenty early!)

They are recovering from their losses as I write this :-( I like a juicy conspiracy theory as much as any person in the blogsphere, so PPT is fun to talk about. The price action in these stocks is simply an amazing spectacle.

107   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 2:09am  

Now watch that NEW ! Down over 28% in a day.

It's a gratifying and entertaining show. Can we keep a moment of silence for the investors and creditors who sacrificed so much to help people achieve their "American Dream" ?

108   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 2:13am  

Peter P,

www.italiancookingandliving.com

Go to "Browse Recipes" then "misc. sauces" then:

"Bread Crumb and Anchovy Sauce from Siracusa"

For some odd reason my buddy (name ends in "i" so he must know what he's talking about) swears it's called "baccalada".

There are a few (very few) but important nuances in the recipe. The anchovy fillets should be broken up w/a fork and the oil really FLIES when they hit the pan! Watch out!

Not culinary advice!

109   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 2:15am  

I love Italian food.

Anchovy is amazing. I especially like the white ones.

110   Bruce   2007 Feb 8, 2:16am  

SFWoman,

So sorry about the Cipriani. Though I don't know for certain, I expect Da Fiore takes the same view.

And either Harry's hardly classifies as a hot tip. I'm fired.

111   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 2:19am  

I am going to Vegas soon. Any new restaurants worth trying?

112   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 2:27am  

StuckinBA,

How about an additional moment of silence for all those MB's commission checks that are sure to bounce! Geez that's an ugly chart. They'd been talking about all morning on CNBC but I had no idea. FUGLY! :)

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