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Don't Panic!


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2007 Feb 7, 10:35am   21,653 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Inspired by Rainman18 (from Ben Jones' blog):

Expect real estate prices to decline in the coming year
Redlandsdailyfacts.com
posted 02/06/2007

Attention everyone:
"When put into perspective of a 10-year pattern, the downturn should have been expected based on the huge run up since 2002."

"...No reason to panic if you purchased your home for the quiet peaceful enjoyment of it" (vs. appreciation)

"Only the speculators and flippers ...are in any trouble at all."

"...and the last ones that purchased in 2005-2006..."

"The rest of us just need to continue to enjoy our homes, unless we were using it as an automatic teller machine."

Crickets: (Chirp chirp, Chirp chirp...)

#housing

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239   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:40am  

StuckinBA,

Are you suggesting that adopted children, who grew up without a biological parent, are irredemably damaged.

I'm not suggesting ANS's child grow up without responsible guardians. In fact, I was originally suggesting that this girl would do better in the hands of responsible guardians than she would in the care of a highly irresponsible parent.

My paternal grandmother's mother died when my grandmother was two and she was packed off to her maternal grandparents. However, she was reasonably treated there and grew up quite well adjusted. My extended family has suffered a few instances of kids who lost parents in infancy or childhood. They managed to grow up okay and I don't see the deep psychological scar. It's not nothing, but I'm not convinced that the damage is worse than growing up with outright bad parents.

240   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 8:42am  

She unfortunately will have a different mother figure so the arguement of her life being over because her mother passed on is BS.

Who said the child's life was over ? What happens to the child as a result of this tragedy is simply unknown future. The issue we are debating is completely different.

The issue is statements like... "Since I don't like the person's particular skills, I think xyz is better off with that person dead."

241   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 8:44am  

Not always. Terrorists are better dead.
At some point we do need to draw the line between good and evil.

Sure. But that is when we know with enough certainty that they either killed or plan to kill other innocent people. Is ANS in that category ?

242   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 8:44am  

astrid :

Please see my answer to Wood River.

243   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 8:47am  

Is ANS in that category ?

Of course NOT.

But that is when we know with enough certainty that they either killed or plan to kill other innocent people.

For national security (a greater good), sometimes we just need to make reasonable guesses.

244   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:48am  

"Saying things are better by someone being dead because they do not fit with your idea of “goodness” is strikingly similar to the viewpoint of most terrorists. "

You live in a society where a majority supports the death penalty. They do not merely state an opinion but act to force that opinion on other people.

Secondly, there is a huge distinction between personally believing something to be right, even to the repugnance of others, and acting (esp. violently acting) to force that opinion on other people. I would never wish ANS death - I'm not even sure the world is better off for her death, I was merely observing that based on my knowledge as of 90 minutes or so ago, I thought her death would increase the change of her daughter for a normal life and being responsibly cared for.

245   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 8:49am  

Are you suggesting that adopted children, who grew up without a biological parent, are irredemably damaged.

Completely unrelated issue. I only said there was a grave loss. How the child cope with the loss is not under discussion.

246   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 8:52am  

FAB,

I am fiscally conservative, but am still going to call an estate tax an estate tax. It simply doesn't tax death, so calling it a 'death tax' seems rather Rovian.

I am not someone who believes that government take care of every-one's wants and desires, but let's call a spade a spade. The tax is on estates over a certain valuation, not on death.

247   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:53am  

StuckinBA,

I'm not going to argue further on this point. I think you've misread the intent of my original statement and responses.

248   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 8:54am  

Shall we resume the discussion on food?

249   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 8:55am  

Peter P.,

And who will make that reasonable guess? I would hope not the same people who have been making reasonable guesses (which all turn out to be worng) as of late.

You do bring up a good point though, perhaps ANS was a Fembot.

250   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 8:55am  

worng means not correct.

251   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:56am  

GC,

ANS was a special case. She was, in my original contention, a complete trainwreck who had screwed up her son's life. No one is saying the average child is benefitted by the loss of a parent.

252   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 8:58am  

You live in a society where a majority supports the death penalty.

Again a diversion. Death penalty is not given because of subjective opinion of someone's skills. It is given after conclusive evidence of killing others. Or whatever the legal way of phrasing it. But that's a different topic.

I was merely observing that based on my knowledge as of 90 minutes or so ago, I thought her death would increase the change of her daughter for a normal life and being responsibly cared for.

I have very little knowledge about ANS. Your conclusion could be true. I just don't like the method of arriving at it. But I guess, let's agree to disagree and move on.

253   HARM   2007 Feb 8, 8:59am  

Anna Nicole Smith --and other f***ed-up Gen-X celebs like her-- give my generation a bad name. Her drug-addled, greed-obsessed, narcissistic train wreck of a lifestyle would have made any Boomer proud. I don't celebrate anyone's death, but I can't say it was unexpected.

254   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:00am  

BTW, even though I said no more replies. I'd like to point out that an adopted infant and an orphaned infant raised by guardians can quite analogous. In both instances, the infant is too young at the time of death to experience the grief of an older child, and the place of the biological parent could be replaced by surrogates.

255   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 8, 9:00am  

SFWoman & FAB,

We're getting into estate planning here and I'm not an expert in this area. So what I'm about to say might not be entirely accurate.

I think the main reason so few actually end up paying the "death tax" is a combination of good estate planning and favorable asset transfer laws.

In addition to the estate transfer exemption, there's also a lifetime gift tax exemption of $1mm for each giftor. Also, the estate tax exemption of $2mm is for each person, and since most wealthy estates are built up by a couple. Realistically at the end, the exemption is $6mm when all is accounted for.

Another thing is that each person is allowed to gift any person $12k (this number changes quite often) every year without that counting toward your lifetime limit and without gift taxes. So you and your husband can gift each of your children $24k a year tax free. Many wealthy families start doing this very early on in a child's life.

There are, of course, other ways to decrease taxes. But the basic items I just listed would suffice for most families.

256   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 9:02am  

And who will make that reasonable guess? I would hope not the same people who have been making reasonable guesses (which all turn out to be worng) as of late.

Someone must do the work. They need to do a good job. Even so, there will be mistakes. If the mistakes are reasonable, they should be seen as acceptable.

We cannot avoid that simply because of a few failures.

257   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 9:02am  

But you did give the impression (IMO) that the little girl was doomed to a life of misery and despair since she had lost her mother.

I didn't intend to give that impression, so sorry if I came across as such. Time heals a lot of sorrows. But not having the sorrow is even better.

258   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:02am  

But yes, let's move onto estate taxes and generation skipping transfers...

259   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 9:03am  

Please refrain from attacking any person. We do NOT want to expose patrick to any sort of liability.

260   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:04am  

PS - please don't hold this too much against me, but I am more of a Hobbesian Benthamnite than a Kantian...

261   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:06am  

Peter P,

I am quite unlikely to ever attack anyone, except annoymously while blogging, and then not too much.

262   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:08am  

SQT,

I never wished death on ANS and I wasn't trying to say good riddance in my original statement. Mostly, I was clumsily looking for a silver lining to the end of her trainwreck of a life.

263   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 9:09am  

I am quite unlikely to ever attack anyone, except annoymously while blogging, and then not too much.

Perhaps I am just paranoid. I only attack unnamed groups and archetypes. :)

264   HARM   2007 Feb 8, 9:13am  

New thread topic in progress -bear with me.

265   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:13am  

Careful, you never know what vegetarians and open space advocates are capable of.

266   HARM   2007 Feb 8, 9:17am  

@SQT,

;-)

267   EBGuy   2007 Feb 8, 9:32am  

SFWoman said:
I am fiscally conservative, but am still going to call an estate tax an estate tax. It simply doesn’t tax death, so calling it a ‘death tax’ seems rather Rovian.
Wikipedia has a nice explanation:
The term was popularized in a famous memorandum written by Republican pollster Frank Luntz. He recommended that the party use the term "death tax" when referring to the estate tax, writing that the term "death tax" "kindled voter resentment in a way that 'inheritance tax' and 'estate tax' do not"

MtViewRenter said:
So you and your husband can gift each of your children $24k a year tax free.
Don't forget to do this with appreciated stock. Then the little ones can sell in 2008-10 and get the gains tax free. (see Anthony's post above).

268   HARM   2007 Feb 8, 9:34am  

new thread: Please help the REIC!

269   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 9:34am  

Don’t forget to do this with appreciated stock. Then the little ones can sell in 2008-10 and get the gains tax free. (see Anthony’s post above).

Interesting. What is they already own the stock ?

270   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 8, 9:43am  

MtViewRenter Says:

> We’re getting into estate planning here and I’m not an
> expert in this area. So what I’m about to say might
> not be entirely accurate.
> I think the main reason so few actually end up paying
> the “death tax” is a combination of good estate planning
> and favorable asset transfer laws.

Most Americans don’t pay the “death tax” because their net worth never comes even close to the exemption.

The majority of Americans that actually pay the tax have estates that are just above the exemption and can often get below the cap with some gifting or other simple tax strategies.

A very small number of Americans with huge estates (who pay tax attorneys more than the typical American family takes home every year) are able to avoid the tax using more complex tax strategies.

P.S. I like to call it the death tax since it really is a tax after death where the government takes half of every penny (over the exemption) that you were able to save with the government already taking over half of every penny that most people make in taxes and fess including, but not limited to: federal income taxes, state income taxes, social security taxes, gas taxes, phone taxes, road taxes, hotel taxes, sales taxes, liquor taxes, tobacco taxes, motor vehicle taxes, drivers license fee, fishing license fee, hunting license fee, brokers license fee, park fees, road fees, tire disposal fees, bridge tolls…

271   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 9:50am  

FAB,

Once you get over the hurdle of income tax and SSI/Medicare contributions, the take is significantly smaller. For the extremely wealthy, who don't pay much income taxes, quite a bit will be in long term capital gains, taxed at a much lower rate than 50%.

272   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 9:57am  

MtView,

The $12K gift allowance is something that you do not have to be wealthy to take advantage of. My husband and I started to do this for a fund when our first was born. My brother started it when his kids were first born as well. It just seems like a smart way to start building up money for a child.

273   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 10:33am  

New thread : life and times of Anna Nicole Smith :lol:

274   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 10:49am  

Springtime for Saddam?

275   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 9, 1:44am  

SFWoman,

No, you don't have to be wealthy. Was just illustrating the point that it's another tool used for estate planning.

We've been putting some money away for our son since he was born, but it's not going to be anywhere close to the max of $24k a year. On the other hand, if one's finances is capable of doing the max, that person has to be pretty darn well off.

276   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 10, 1:46pm  

Peter P Says:

> Yes, you definitely want at least 1 gig of RAM.
> What kind of memory stick do you have?

I’ve got 4gig SD cards in my Treo and Digital camera (that I got for under $100 and you can now get on eBay for under $50) since the first version of Windows came out the rule has been buy as much RAM as you can afford that will fit in the computer for best performance (I think I paid $600 less than 12 years ago to upgrade a Toshiba laptop from 4 mb to 8 mb, that is mb not gb)…

277   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 10, 2:06pm  

> New thread : life and times of Anna Nicole Smith

Then SP Says:

> Please, in the name of allah, No.

With Anna Nichole dead and a new guy every day claiming to be the father of her child the media has totally forgot about the Gavin Newsom.

I never did understand the fascination with Ana Nichole, but then again I’ve always been attracted to girls like the one on the link below (I was at the party, but I’m not in any of the photos and I was just reminded how hot this brunette was when I bought up the link late last week and was clicking through it to show someone a photo of the NY Old Money WASP that a friend of ours from undergrad married a couple years ago):

http://www.manhattan.smugmug.com/gallery/1276841#59982614

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