patrick.net

Drivers in some parts of Japan are the meanest I’ve ever seen.

Really? But they are stop to let me cross the road.

I have no problem driving in the Bay Area, but would NEVER CONSIDER driving in Japan.

I was in my friend's car and he was going 120mph on the highway. That was scary. Other than that, it just seems that most Japanese drivers drive like me. :)

If you ever try to enforce your pedestrian rights in Tokyo, you’ll become another traffic statistic.

Well you were born there. Can't argue with you.

trader :

What set Patrick/Ben apart is that they were able to say it publicly. That really saved a few.

Count me in. No I would not have bought a house even if I had never found out this site. It saved me from losing confidence in my financial sense.

This very forum is testament to the fact that we all seek affirmation from others.

It was true that in 2006 this was like my support group. Now I don't the affirmation or the "fix" as much. I come here for sound opinions and smart discussions. I like hanging around with this bunch. Even if they disagree with my views.

Now my predictions about housing could all be wrong, but what has happened in last 18 months in RE market has at least proved one thing to me. I was not stupid to refrain from buying. Now I am at peace with myself.

PAR, that's classic.

Honestly.... I'm thinking about taking the 2 week class and getting my license. Not to become a Realtor, but to document what exactly it is that they get 'taught' and how that makes them qualified to give any financial advice.

BearCat,

I'll agree, it doesn't exactly take a genius to have put this together. At least not in 2007! :) The truth is, for quite some time there were no overt signs other than things being hunky dory and that WE were missing the boat!

Now w/FB's defaulting left and right (unimaginable 18 mos. ago) and subprime lenders going under by the day, it all looks so obvious. What I especially enjoy is that almost each passing day a whole NEW swath of people that bought in at or near the peak are seeing their "equity cushion" erode! :) The number of people that never in a million years thought pilfering their own home would ever catch up w/them is growing as we speak!

A lot of them WILL be surprised to learn that housing blogs go back as far as 2003? and that there WERE everyday people no more qualified than themselves predicting the mess they can not find their way out of.

Perhaps Patrick and Ben are Super-psychic-geniuses.

"It saved me from losing confidence in my financial sense"

Amen to that brother! While I can't say that "fix" describes my motivations any more it's still great to have some troll parade the ol' "time machine" around from time to time!

I don't know if anyone else was offended by it by Caroline Baum of Bloomberg (whom I normally respect) was off the mark when she described ALL subprime borrowers as "dead beats". Evidently this is the way the market portrays this end of debt paper so we can all feel better about ourselves?

Perhaps NAR and Wall Steet would be infinitely happier if everyone that didn't qualify as "A" paper sat around and rented until A) prices come way down or B) they actually qualify for a traditional mortgage complete w/20% down. (That'll keep the REIC rolling along!)

PAR said:
FAB, the really interesting part is when they go to refi out of their toxic loan (into another reset toxic loan, of course) and the appraisal comes in at 97% of their original purchase price but they owe 110%… This is the surprise that nobody sees coming.
But it just gets better, the real surprise is that the originator will refi the loan... then when that loan drives them to the poor house the lender says "Oh sorry, you lost your original purchase money, non-recourse loan when you refied. We own you".

BearCat,

I was really just kidding. Someone recently mentioned that DL went from not seeing a bubble to calling the bottom all in the span of 3 months! I recognize you as one of the long time posters and SoCalmtguy and I have already hashed out our differences on "tastes great/less filling" (cheap money vs. tax code) long ago!

For anyone late to the party it's all too tempting to say that the bubble is "solely" cheap money driven. For old time believers, all it facilitated was a way for long time owners w/solid equity and the builders to cash in on both ends of the deal. At the GF's expense of course!

"....all said that the cab driver was an independent contractor over whom they had no authority.

So the cab companies own all the taxi medallions, keep the cab supply artificially low (try to get a cab on a rainy night), gouge the drivers, but have zero responsibility. I can see why they want no change."

SFWoman, I manage a company that has over 250 cabs so let me add here.

The medallion concept is a holdover from the New York style political boss days. Originally, the medallians that sold in New York were only $100 apiece, but last time I looked, the cost was up to $275,000. This means a New York cabbie must pay off this medallian mortgage (or pay thousands to rent a medallian), pay to lease his cab, pay to maintain his cab, and pay for credit card services while being restricted in how much he can charge. Not all cities run cabs like New York, but the independent leasee driver / company medallions model is the most common. Thus to make money, cabbies must pick up as many passengers as possible and as many long trips as possible. This is why they drive so fast and ignore pickups (such as in Harlem) that do not usually go far. And yes, the cabbie is an "independent contractor" who gets no benefits, must pay both ends of his SS and his own taxes, and has no workman's comp.

This is a business that would do well with less gov control. I can see that the city would inspect cabs for safety and cleanliness, and perhaps tax for business use of roads, but the medallion concept is just a method of insuring campaign contributions from the medallion holders. And highly regulated businesses must make campaign contributions. If you request to see your local official about his proposed legislation requiring taxis to pick up the elderly for free, he will flip through his rollodex to see if you made a contribution. If you did not, you ain't seeing him.

The "they" that want no change are the city officials and their select business croneys. Remove the city meddling and the businessmen would have to compete with price/quality for both drivers and riders.

I have found Washington DC to be a great place to ride a cab. The market is not regulated, and drivers own thier cabs. They use zone pricing, so the expense of meters is eliminated. Every cab I took there was well kept and clean. Any vehicle type can be a cab there, I have seen everything from sedans to 4x4 trucks.

They are not making any more medallion.

There should be no price control on taxi services. Drivers should be able to charge whatever he feels like so long as the fee schedule is known before the trip.

I have answered this before, FB = Focaccia Bread.

Or F*cked Borrower.

Speaking of taxis - it's amazing how expensive they are here. Even car service.

It's over $100 to go from SFO to Mountain View/Sunnyvale via taxi. With car service it's still almost $75. And this is all pre-tip.

Good grief - it's cheaper to take a taxi in NYC for an equivalent distance.

And as I like to say, anytime something is more expensive than NYC and it's not in NYC, it's broken.

"There should be no price control on taxi services. Drivers should be able to charge whatever he feels like so long as the fee schedule is known before the trip. "

Bingo, Peter P!

With today's tecnology, that would be easy. Punch in the destination and out pops a fare. Common destinations could be on an old fashioned fee menu.

With today’s tecnology, that would be easy. Punch in the destination and out pops a fare. Common destinations could be on an old fashioned fee menu.

Yep. It should be easy to set up a two-way bidding system using SMS technology.

Want a cab? SMS dispatch with the route and a bid!

Highly entertaining exchange in the comments. Realtor tries to skewer with (and then falls upon) the it’s-different-here-sword…
http://www.sfhomeblog.com/2007/03/if-you-do-fall-behind.html

To be fair though, they -were- fighting about Central Valley.

PAR, have you tried this one for Bay Area listings?

http://www.mlslistings.com/

I always thought it worked pretty well.

My favorite cab?

CASH CAB!

There's a thought! Jump in, agree to play and if you miss 3 trivia questions we'll kick ya' ta' the curb! Get 'em right and we'll give YOU cash! I love it!

Check out listing MLS#: 703508 on

http://www.mlslistings.com/

506 sq ft 53-year old cottage for $999,000 with Los Altos schools (2665 MILLER AV, MTN VIEW).

So I am sitting in my office minding my own business, and suddenly there is a phone call.
Nice automated voice saying that they have been trying to reach me because homeowners in my area are now prequalified for 1% interest rate refinancing, and that I can use this opportunity to pay off my other loans or take a f***ing vacation. Bad credit is apparently still OK.

Oh and if I would like to take advantage of this wonderful opportunity, I should press "1" now.

Really pissed me off. When will this crap end?

Los Altos doesn't have a good high school, most Los Altos parents send their kids to private high schools, or they choose to buy the part of Los Altos bordering Cupertino to go to Cupertino's high school.

Paying a mil for a shack on top of private school tuition bill, that is just lunacy. It also doesn't satisfy one's vanity, it is after all Mountain View address.

Hey DinOr,

CASH CAB sounds great. We have in cab cameras that we can use to record the show.

When they can't sell those trash mortgages, which is starting to happen. Of course, Freddie claimed they'll by crap until September, but Bernanke is trying to imply that Fred and Fran will by nothing BUT crap in the future.

Oiy.

"506 sq ft 53-year old cottage for $999,000 with Los Altos schools (2665 MILLER AV, MTN VIEW). "

This has to be a joke, right? Even has a '60's Earl Sheib painted nerdmobile parked in the driveway.

Really pissed me off. When will this crap end?

When the last toxic loan peddler files for Chapter 11. Which should not be too long from now:

http://ml-implode.com/

Peter P Says:
There should be no price control on taxi services. Drivers should be able to charge whatever he feels like so long as the fee schedule is known before the trip.

Yeah, that's right, same for bus trips, too. The govt bus driver should be able to haggle with every passenger for every fare as they get on, then see if people change their minds and walk. Particularly with pensioners. That would be an efficient process at every bus stop...

The grey market London cab drivers do just that, in fact -- they offer you a fixed price to get to somewhere, which you can of course accept or decline. Of course, you're getting into an unknown, unlicensed guy's car who might sexually assault you if it's night time...

I agree with trader, salute to Patrick and Ben's moral courage.

As for seeing the bubble, as someone who witnessed the housing bubble unfold in Japan and Hong Kong, I called the top earlier than most people since I was being over-cautious. Although I was very sure that this bubble would end ugly, and it would have horrifying ramifications on social and financial fronts impacting us all, I didn't have the courage to say it publicly, or even among so-so friends. I don't want to be seen as a social outcast, so even when I hear about downright stupid housing investment decisions at a party or over a dinner exchange, I just smiled and said, well done.

Seeing the bubble and sticking to one's position is not hard, a lot of smart guys do that. But seeing the bubble and doing something about it, even though the action looked odd and goofy at that moment, such are the extraordinary quality that Patrick and Ben have that some of us lack.

Also, thanks to whoever that makes blog possible. If there were no blogs, the bubble could have gone on even further because ordinary people would have no venue for voicing their opinions loud and clear to audience far and near that care to listen.

Further, there should be no consumer protections or consumer certainty in society. That's just boring. People don't want certainty and predictability, or safe neighbourhoods, they prefer to live by their wits and try to avoid getting ripped off or robbed 100 times a day to add a frisson...

uglily?

ille_vir,

what you said about drivers in Japan is actually common throughout Asia, particularly in China. I think it is a cultural thing. I had a chauffeur in China when I was there on assignment. I always reminded my chauffeur to keep a distance from the pedestrians, but he laughed at my naivety. If I had my way, I would have never been able to drive across a crossing. He was right.

People don't watch traffic lights in China, so if you are polite and let the pedestrians cross, you will be stuck forever, literally. So my chauffeur's (and obviously all drivers') strategy was to appear very aggressive towards to pedestrians, threatening to run them over so that they would stop blocking the car. Of course sometimes you do run the risk of running someone over, so the driver has to be extremely skilled to be able to stop 2cm before actually hitting the person.

I strongly advise against any tourist trying to rent a car and drive around in China, Japan or Korea. First, you can't possibly negotiate the narrow streets, second, you will get stuck at crossings forever.

It's great to watch Robert Kiyosaki learn about finances and economics *after* he started publishing his get rich books, much as anyone else would by careful reading and thought... the retrospective voice of wisdom... John T. Reed points out that RK's probably only worth 2-3 million based almost solely on sales of his books since the 90s -- a completely fabricated "success" story...

OO,

That reminds me of driving in Sicilly. Everyone drives like a maniac in these tiny Fiats and if you make eye contact, the other guy will pull in front of you. Beep your horn and you can drive on the sidewalk. After a few months of Itilian style driving, we wold head back to England and be the jerks until we settled back into the most polite British road manners.

I strongly advise against any tourist trying to rent a car and drive around in China, Japan or Korea.

But Japan is not China. Japanese drivers do seem to be as courteous as me. I dare not cross any road in China.

Don't Chinese pedestrians just 'ignore' vehicles as a cultural habit and stagger onto the road expecting traffic to stop for them? Face-saving and all that, you know... One woman got run down recently because of it -- not even looking for traffic before crossing...

My sis when living in HK found that drivers just ignored road rules like roundabout right of way etc -- which then translates into terrible driving when they go to Western countries...

Luckily there aren't many roundabouts here.

Are roundabouts the same as totaries?

Peter P Says:
Luckily there aren’t many roundabouts here.

heh, yes, at least they've mastered going in a straight, uninterrupted line...

rotaries....

Are roundabouts the same as rotaries?

Yes. But of course, they "rotate" the other way over there. :)

I think they can be used to replace semi-busy multi-lane 4-way stops though.