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Subprime!


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2007 Mar 13, 4:56am   29,081 views  331 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Subprimes selling off again. Lots of pundits feigning astonishment that there might actually be a 2nd leg to the correction. Heaven forfend.

I'm not a full time investment professional, just someone who works with finance & economics a good bit. I'm hoping to get comment from our pros:

How far is the subprime ill likely to spread (US & Int'l)? I doubt it the damage remains isolated to lenders, banks and homebuilders. I also doubt it is likely to undermine CalPERS and leave grandma begging for bread crusts on the street.

For what it's worth, I think there's going to be at least a couple more nasty down-legs as hedge funds start eating it. A lot of "hedge" funds forgot the whole "hedge" part of "hedge fund". I expect a lot of mayhem as the lucky ones unwind and the others dissolve.

And I think most of the pundits are missing the big credit/liquidity squeeze that's approaching. Consumer spending hasn't been all HELOC driven, there's a whole pile of "junk" debt sitting around that people used to buy all the crap they have today. All it takes is for the Capital One's to start pulling in risk a bit -- making it a bit harder and more expensive to buy crap on credit -- and the early legs of this correction will be but fond memories.

Let's hope employment does stay strong long enough to stave off good old fashioned stagflation. Luckily, so far so good. Steep losses in real estate related employment are being absorbed by other industries. So far.

#housing

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159   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 2:33am  

Siriam,

That report on Sen. Dodd's proposal pi$$sed me off to no end. I've never done this before, but I just sent an email to Dodd on his website. I encourage everyone here to do the same:

http://dodd.senate.gov/index.php?q=node/3128&cat=Opinion

160   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 2:34am  

Jimbo,

I think NCRC kind of dovetails with The Center for Responsible Lending in their commitment to "sustainable home ownership" and stability and growth in communities.

161   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 2:35am  

This whole bailout issue is ridiculous! It's like stuffing 10lbs. of shit into a 1 lbs. bag and when it starts to break, out with the duct tape!

162   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 2:36am  

When will people (especially statists of both kinds) realize that creative destruction is essential to this whole process?

In the 20's.

"“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."

I believe in this school of thoughts.

163   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 2:36am  

I meant 1930's.

164   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 2:41am  

PAR,
Of course your sarcasm was clear. I hope mine was too.

165   lunarpark   2007 Mar 14, 2:41am  

skibum - Thanks for the link. I just emailed Dodd.

166   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 2:43am  

The dollar has been looking very scary for the past month. I can almost hear those printing presses printing up money for the first helicoptor drop!

167   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 2:45am  

skibum,

It was alright for me to get in a plug on the "24 Month Club" too, right?

168   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 2:46am  

It was alright for me to get in a plug on the “24 Month Club” too, right?

Huh?

169   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 2:48am  

@skibum,

250/500K Cap Gains Exemption on "primary" residence every OTHER year?!

170   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 2:50am  

250/500K Cap Gains Exemption on “primary” residence every OTHER year?!

The right thing to do is to eliminiate the capital gains tax.

171   lunarpark   2007 Mar 14, 2:51am  

“In the U.S. Senate, Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (news, bio, voting record) said he may offer a bill to protect consumers who were “victimized” by subprime mortgages they can no longer afford.”

But how will "victimized" be defined? That is the question.

172   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 2:51am  

I completely agree with both of these statements. If people were victimized and can prove it, they should be allowed to walk away unscathed.

Huh? They were victimized by themselves and their stupidity. I say liquidate borrowers!

173   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 2:52am  

I really hate the victim mentality.

174   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 2:53am  

Peter P,

Agreed, but let's level the playing field and do it across the board. :)

175   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 2:56am  

PAR,

I for one am not assuming there will be any scenario that leads to, as you put it, where "JBRs are going to get envelopes in the mail so that we can send checks directly to FBs."

I believe that this is just a lot of political grandstanding by a Dem who envisions himself a "fighter for the common man," and who's more "common" than a FB. I'm sure he'll get some good political mileage out of this proposal, but I bet, and I pray that this thing dies in Committee. FBs (especially subprime) hold absolutely no political clout - heck, does that segement even vote? - but let's hope Dodd's idea doesn't snowball.

On the other hand, the real political clout is held by the brokerage houses, HFs, institutional investors that will probably bear a significant part of this fallout.

176   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 2:58am  

DinOR,
Thanks. You're being overly optimistic, though!

177   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 3:00am  

Agreed, but let’s level the playing field and do it across the board.

Hmm.....

178   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 3:00am  

I got it done–thanks for the link. Whew, they ask for a lot of identifying info–guess they want to cutback on the threats that he’ll be getting now?

Doesn't mean you have to give him your true identity. :lol:

179   StuckInBA   2007 Mar 14, 3:03am  

It's like - Sen. Dodd to all the FBs : "Help is on the way".

Does anyone else remember that slogan from almost 8 years ago ? You know how the guy helped the people he promised to help.

180   SFWoman   2007 Mar 14, 3:08am  

I said real estate is our new religion. Christian Weller says it's a game of Jenga:

"Christian Weller, a senior economist at the liberal Center for American Progress in Washington, likened the housing market to the parlor game of Jenga, in which wooden pieces are piled into a tower, then removed one by one.

Fewer loans. Fewer sales. Lower prices.

"We know the bottom part is being pulled out," Weller said. "We don't know if the top is going to come crashing down on us."

http://tinyurl.com/yveppo

181   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 3:12am  

Real estate is a souffle. It rises and rises. But when you poke it with a spoon, it will lose some air.

182   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 3:12am  

They should take a vote on what everyone wants with their names and addresses:

1) FB bailout.
2) No FB bailout.

All those who vote for 1) will fund it. The only ones who will fund it will be the FB's.

183   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 3:13am  

@ skibum,

Well, no argument there! However I do feel it's important to get to the root cause of issues and the more of us that chime in the harder it becomes to sweep it under the carpet!

I mean, what WOULD motivate a guy to buy a house when he knows his credit sucks, the payments are out of his comfort zone, will likely re-set (driving them further out of reach) and pay an inflated price along w/inflated taxes?

C'ain't be but one thang and that's FREE MONEY!

How many of them would still have thunk it's a "bargain" to go out on a limb like that if there wuz a balook'in tax bill at the end of it?

Mama-lukah-boo-boo-day! (I rest my case) :)

184   GammaRaze   2007 Mar 14, 3:14am  

The only "victimized" borrowers are those who were forced to sign up for a mortgage loan at gunpoint. Anyone know any such borrower?

Everyone else chose to get into a loan worth millions of dollars over a period of thirty years, of their own volition. They are supposed to do the research; it is their responsibility. If you walk up to a stranger and offer him one hundred dollars of easy money, his first question would be "whats the catch?"

These people, in their greed, took on loans that they shouldn't have taken on. Some managed to sell at the peak and consider themselves to be real estate moghuls.

Those who didn't are suddenly victims? If someone's greed and stupidity blinds their innate sense of caution, how does that make them victims?

185   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 3:16am  

Sriram G,

Exactly.

Mama-lukah-boo-boo-day!

186   GammaRaze   2007 Mar 14, 3:17am  

BTW, good analysis on this topic

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/1st-helicopter-drop-now-being-organized.html

A generally good economic blog.

187   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 3:22am  

The only “victimized” borrowers are those who were forced to sign up for a mortgage loan at gunpoint. Anyone know any such borrower?

This is exactly right! I have been saying this for years!

Borrowers who play this babe of the woods routine piss me off!!!

They commited a crime by lying on the application with help of a broker. Now they're going to get away with it?

I think I am going to hook up with a bunch of thugs and rob a bank! If I don't get caught, I'll be rich! If I get caught, I'll just say that they made me do it, they'll let me go and I'll be no richer or poorer! Sounds like a solid business plan to me.

188   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 3:24am  

Siriam,
Exactly. It's like the "victims" of all those spams from some Nigerian finance minister begging for help to free up his millions of dollars with a promise of a cut of the pie. These "victims" are victims of their own greed, stupidity and lack of common sense. Yes, some foreign "dignitary" has searched out YOU, Mr. Amerikan dude, as the best way for him to redeem himself in his noble effort. Go for it, but don't cry when you've lost your shirt!

189   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 3:25am  

allah,

Why rob a bank when you can just walk in during regular business hours and rob your OWN home w/a cash out re-fi?

190   skibum   2007 Mar 14, 3:25am  

Real estate is a souffle. It rises and rises. But when you poke it with a spoon, it will lose some air.

Does that mean if we open the oven door and peek at it, it will deflate?

(BTW...isn't the souffle analogy what that idiot "economist" from UOP keeps using-I forget his name?)

191   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 3:27am  

the "other",

Why waste your time here! You should be trying to outbid Casey when the spring bounce arrives! Buy now!

192   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 3:28am  

allah,

Why rob a bank when you can just walk in during regular business hours and rob your OWN home w/a cash out re-fi?

Less paperwork.

193   HARM   2007 Mar 14, 3:31am  

If they must bailout something, they should bailout the large banks.

Why? If individual FBs don't get a free pass, why should the banksters? Isn't letting bad BUSINESSES fail a critical part of the free market's "creative destruction"? Won't the FDIC reimburse middle & working-class depositors in the event of a bank failure (the only true innocent "victims" we should really be concerned about: people like us)?

Hell, I'll even go one further: If you had to choose between bailing out average dumbass FBs or the high-flying greedbag banksters at BofA, Wells-Fargo, Morgan Stanley, hedge funds, etc., which would you choose?

(A: Neither --yeah, I feel the same way.) But if you HAD to hold your nose and choose, which would it be? I'd take the regular schlub over Boomer McGreedbag any day.

194   HARM   2007 Mar 14, 3:35am  

Thanks to skibum & others for the write-your-Congress rep links. The idea of drafting a form letter or cut-'n-paste is a great idea. Anyone have any model examples they'd like to share here?

195   lunarpark   2007 Mar 14, 3:40am  

PAR - I understand what you are saying. But it took under 5 minutes to draft a couple of emails and send them out. Maybe it won't help, but it certainly won't hurt.

Thanks for Sue McAllister's email.

196   Peter P   2007 Mar 14, 3:40am  

Why? If individual FBs don’t get a free pass, why should the banksters? Isn’t letting bad BUSINESSES fail a critical part of the free market’s “creative destruction”?

I said "if they must".

But if you HAD to hold your nose and choose, which would it be? I’d take the regular schlub over Boomer McGreedbag any day.

Honestly, would you like to see billionaires losing billions (and still remain billionaires) or would like like to see your peers (i.e. resource competitors) losing their shirts?

Fine, I am being evil here. :twisted:

197   DinOR   2007 Mar 14, 3:42am  

HARM,

Mish (Mike Shedlock) did a great piece that took the impacts of a bail-out to their logical conclusion and as you might suspect... it isn't pretty!

198   Allah   2007 Mar 14, 3:50am  

PAR - I understand what you are saying. But it took under 5 minutes to draft a couple of emails and send them out. Maybe it won’t help, but it certainly won’t hurt.

They probably have spam filters that look for stuff like:

"bailout"
"bastard"
"taxpayer"
"subprime"
"pissed off!"
"ARM rest"

that eats the email before it even gets to them.

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