patrick.net

spike66,

Is that what people mean when they say "an $11 head of lettuce"?

I don't support illegal immigrant rights/legalization because it is a moral hazard and degrades society's support for rule of law.

However, as an economic realist, I think we can only curb illegal immigration by severely punishing anyone hiring illegal immigrants. Punishing illegal immigrants would be ineffective, expensive, and lead to unnecessary abuse. Stem the demand and the supply will eventually go home.

Ultimately, I don't think it matters. Barring major technological breakthrough coupled with enlightened leadership (a bloody unlikely combination), I don't see humanity going anywhere good. We're screwed as a race, likely within the next 100 years.

astrid,

Why so glum? :(

Like Nicolas Cage said in "Lord of War"

"It's been said, when good men do nothing, evil prevails"

(He said that should just read: "evil prevails") :)

Pending Sales up.

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes surprisingly rose in February even as bad weather and weakness in the subprime lending sector put a crimp on the housing market, a real estate agents' trade association said Tuesday.

It'll be interesting to see if this holds through March. Feb was just before the subprime poo hit the fan. Of course, a bump in pending sales in February is all we need to call bottom, right?

Jon Basile, an economist with Credit Suisse of New York, said Monday's data "gives a feel that existing home sales has stabilized because they are higher than the lows of last year. At the very least, housing demand is not getting any worse."

Those pendings in February had/have to get funded in March/April, so it'll be interesting to see how many of those fall through.

SF08,

Doesn't surprise me. I believe I'd read in 2005 82% of CA loans were of the adjustable variety. So it's not much of a stretch. If there's a distinction between Sub and Alt-A all I can see is that sub is "known" bad and Alt-A is "probably" bad?

SFBB,

I think we've already pretty much de-bunked the value of "Pending Sales" as nothing more than CAR/NAR's way of knowing what's in the commission pipeline for realtwhores.

If you're flirting w/default and your home doesn't happen to be part of that "pipeline" well then I guess you're screwed now aren't you! Possibly the most meaningless statistic they put out?

This is good stuff:

http://www.epionline.org/study_detail.cfm?sid=87

They presented an excellent argument against hiking minimum wage.

And I have found a new hero for myself:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Berman

"doubly toasted?"

Uh huh. SoCalMortguy is currently corresponding with a reformed FB in exactly those circumstances. The long and short of it is, the guy was making 10 grand a month (for filling out forms and getting people to give him their SS#) and will l i k e l y have a tough time finding another job. At least one that pays that well for doing nothing!

I usually don't see movies when they first come out on DVD release. My kids know what I like and when they're done with them they find their way over to our place. What really scared me about it was, just how close to that life I'd really flirted. Active recruitment from G.I's at overseas installations is really a numbers game. Eventually they work a prospect (a hungry one) until he/she either walks or delivers. The only saving grace I had was that I was just smart enough to know that if you "delivered" they would own you. Close call.

Off topic:
Januari housing sales rise. "Bubble" continues. Yall can stop cheerleading for Satan and start enjoying live. Buy now or rent forever. BooYaa. LOL

Januari housing sales rise. “Bubble” continues. Yall can stop cheerleading for Satan and start enjoying live.

what teh hel? are you a looser?

Ok, who let Cramer out of his cage? Heck, I thought he was in trouble for publicly admitting to breaking securities laws while he was a hedge fund manager.

A looser? That depends on your definition of the word "looser"? According to Cramer I would be a smart investor.

Randy H
"I know those “madhouse bidding sprees” in Mountain View turned out to all be fake."

I still see it. Pure and blantant fraud. Realtors are pumping the price without any regard to law or ethics.

Didn't you all hear about the latest housing numbers? Doesn't sound like bubble-material to me. What are your thoughts, mister bubbleblogger?

HARM,

A lot of these guys that managed in the 90's are still p@ssed off about Reg. FD, Sarbox, decimalization, positive determination and other regulatory actions that basically gutted being a market maker. Sure, the guy is unhinged but most of the comments I'd read were actually phrased in the past tense.

From Washington Post last year, there were practically no enforcement in punishing employers under George W.

Between 1999 and 2003, work-site enforcement operations were scaled back 95 percent by the Immigration and Naturalization Service, which subsequently was merged into the Homeland Security Department. The number of employers prosecuted for unlawfully employing immigrants dropped from 182 in 1999 to four in 2003, and fines collected declined from $3.6 million to $212,000, according to federal statistics.

In 1999, the United States initiated fines against 417 companies. In 2004, it issued fine notices to three.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/18/AR2006061800613.html

CB, the priority is still anti-terrorism. Besides, it is hard to enforce against employers without a viable guest worker program. The labor market is telling us that the immigration system is broken.

Peter P,

Don't you know! Januari is the month that comes before Februari! :)

You can make fun of me but you can't ignore the facts.

Talking about immigration. I have one word "Minutemen".

CB,

Well, as FAB pointed out, conservative Republicans generally like to *talk* tough about immigration, but when it comes to walking the walk, most of them get cold feet.

Given that Democrats rarely like to say anything bad about illegals inpublic, it's highly ironic that employer-side enforcement actually fell over 99% under a completely Republican-led government vs. the Clinton-era.

@Cramer blows best!!!

What facts?

Talking about immigration. I have one word “Minutemen”.

The border watch program is a good idea.

Another issue on any immigration bill....lets revoke birthright citizenship. Why should people break the law by illegally entering the US, use the emergency room to deliver their baby (usually at someone else"s expense), and then be allowed to declare that new baby a "citizen"...entitled to all the protections and liberties of our constitution, and by the way, use of some taxpayer entitlements as well. Until we change that, they will keep streaming across the borders. We are one of the few countries left that allows this. We need to reinterpret the 14th amendment.

Whether it's 3.6 mil or 212k in fines, spread out over the entire country that's still pretty nominal. :(

If I owned a business that employed illegals... I guess I'd take my chances.

Another issue on any immigration bill….lets revoke birthright citizenship.

That is going to be tough. Let's just reform the welfare system instead.

One thing though, the citizen baby will not be able to sponsor its parents until it becomes an adult.

Annie,

I don't know what bugs me worse. The "free" child delivery or the bleeding hearts saying "how can you send these people back to ____, ____, or ____ when their child is a CITIZEN!?! You're breaking up a family!

The free child delivery bugs me worse. The US should charge the parents' country of origin for the fees.

I used to see help wanted posting in Chinese restaurants written in Chinese only, that's borderline legal because if the job requires certain language skills, anyone that meets that can apply (i.e., an American that knows Chinese). I'm sure that's not what the intentions were though.

But nowadays, a lot of busboy and dishwasher notices in Chinese restaurants are in Spanish only. My old nanny's husband was in his 50's, after he got laid off from his last restaurant jog, no Chinese restaurant would hire him even though he was a legal immigrant.

I used to see help wanted posting in Chinese restaurants written in Chinese only, that’s borderline legal because if the job requires certain language skills, anyone that meets that can apply (i.e., an American that knows Chinese). I’m sure that’s not what the intentions were though.

CB, I do not think the intention alone constitutes a crime. :)

I am not a lawyer. Not legal advice.

CB, I do not think the intention alone constitutes a crime.

I agree, but why do Chinese restaurants have Spanish as a requirements for bus-persons and dish-washers. :)

GC,

I haven't dined out that much in Seattle but I've never been hit on by the waitresses. Don't flatter yourself (they're just working you for a tip). I've had them say "Are you guys coming from the game?" but mostly just to break the ice. Besides if you tip nice (they'll remember you) just like if you're an @$$hole (only the service is a lot better) :)

Ha, ha! Scope this out:

A pensioner aged 102 has been granted a 25-year mortgage despite the fact he would have to live until 127 to pay the loan back.

The property investor from East Sussex has taken out an interest-only £200,000 mortgage and hopes to meet the £958 monthly repayments with income from rent as he joins a growing army of retired people hoping to cash in on buy-to-let schemes.

Most lenders set a limit at 75 years for mortgage applicants but a handful, including Woolwich, and Bristol & West, have no such restrictions. This has led to a rush of applications from older investors.

Jonathan Moore, of Mortgages for Business, an independent adviser based in Sevenoaks, Kent, told how he brokered the mortgage for the unnamed 102-year-old, one of hundreds he has arranged for pensioners. “This is a new phenomenon.Obviously there is an element of risk if property prices and rental income suddenly fall but there is no sign of that at the moment,” he said.

This "Minutemen" is a bunch of Limbaugh-blowhard chatter.

There are plenty of factories that are filled with illegal workers, it's not just dudes hanging out in your Home Depot parking lot. Go take a tour of your local chicken-processing plant and see if anyone speaks English. It's been that way for years, and I don't see any Republican-funded INS trucks rolling up and deporting them. If the "Minutemen" were so serious about their task they would be volunteering to work for INS for *FREE* in my opinion. They would be sponsoring and marching for bills to punish employers for say $10K per illegal caught working for them.

Me, I don't care either way, I am just amused by the hypocrisy of both parties which say things and then make absolutely sure no results are achieved. Because neither party really wants to harm the bottom lines of their corporate masters no mater what they say on TV.

Is this going to have a major impact on housing or the economy, I don't see how. Except for news-worthy cases, Jose the Fruit-Picker isn't typically buying a McMansion on a sub-prime loan. They work for 6 months, then go home to Mexico and take their money with them. Then they come back next season.

You can make fun of me but you can’t ignore the facts.

Cramer, Cramer, Cramer,

Use your mind and stop taking the media's spin at face value.

I assume the "facts" you refer to are that todays pending sales appear to have increased compared to last month. Let me tell you a few additional facts:

We are in the start of the Spring Selling Season (TM). Sales traditionally increase this time of year. The touted increase is to be expected, but I'd argue that the magnitude of increase is less than hoped for.

The previous month (Jan) pending sales number was (as is almost always the case) revised downward, making this month's pending sales larger compared to last month. This is because the pending sales do not account for cancellations, and when all is said and done the number almost always gets revised downward (in the relatively brief history of this statistic). I find it interesting how this scheme is a built-in way for the new pending sales number to always look as good as possible...

If you don't believe me, read the press release from the NAR themselves at www.realtor.org Interestingly, the NAR's spin is more negative:

A forward-looking index based on pending home sales indicates that bad weather, and possibly the loss of some subprime lending, will dampen sales closed in March and April, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in February, stood at 109.3 – down 8.5 percent from February 2006 when it reached 119.4, but is 0.7 percent higher than a downwardly revised reading of 108.5 in January. Earlier, mild weather caused the index to spike at 113.3 in December.

I find it interesting that the MSM failed to mention the large YoY decline as well.

To the rest of you, sorry to take up bandwidth with troll-bait responses.

Incidentally, if you're curious about the pending home sales index for our neck of the woods, it's not good:

"In the West, the index fell 6.0 percent from January to 104.1 and was 8.2 percent lower than February 2006."

My Spring-fling theory: What do you think the odds are that some sellers are waiting on the Fed to drop rates before listing their properties? The market seems very certain that rate cuts are coming (despite rising inflation)...

If I were in the mood to sell but not forced to do so (e.g. pending foreclosure, etc.) would I wait for the media "doom and gloom" to pass? Would I wait until the Fed drops rates from the "unreasonably high" current rates?

New Thread: September 12, 2037 http://patrick.net/wp/?p=431

PAR,

You're assuming most sellers are savvy enough to (a) be aware that there is an entity called the Federal Reserve and (b) it does stuff that has an effect on interest rates, and that (c) despite the fact that the Fed funds rate generally affects short-term rates, most potential buyers will be using ARMs and therefore care more about short term rates anyway. Otherwise, why would the typical seller care about this (of course, there are more savvy sellers out there, though).

How many FOB immigrants know these facts? Incidentally, does the US citizenship test ask about the Fed?

>>How many FOB immigrants know these facts? Incidentally, does the US citizenship test ask about the Fed?

Like most things, if you asked most citizens that, they'd fail too.

PAR,

I'll take it a step further, they're BANKING on it! It's as pathetic as the stoners that refuse to leave a rock concert after everyone is long gone thinking "the band" will come out and do one more encore?

The Quest for the Last Greater Fool!

These dingbats couldn't give a rip about the broader economy! They're over leveraged (on one or more properties) and they just want out. Ask these fools what they think is fair and the answer is typically "Take rates down to whatever level is required to get the market "back to normal" as their bic lighter emits it's last flicker. :(