patrick.net

LILLL, congrats! You now have an excuse to buy a new computer! :)

I was so happy my old laptop broke.

"Oh we should be tough after providing a reasonable alternative, namely the guest worker program. I just have a problem with stuffing people in the prison system, which is expensive as hell. I propose caning! "

In the end then we agree that there should be a penalty scary enough to force compliance. The goal is definitely to have as few people go to jail, definitely not my intention. I would even buy into the guest worker program as a way of implementing my 6 month registration plan. Then that puts a nice control point in the system. Declare yourself or become a criminal --> 6 months to get out or within 60 days apply for a guest visa which requires proficiency in English. The guest visas can be good for a year, but if you are denied, you have to be out of the country 6 months from the date of your declaration. Who can argue against the concept (not nitpick the details but in general)?

We can even impose a fine if they choose to apply for the visa but that would deter compliance. Impose the fine if they are here after 6 months, and if they are caught here again then 10 years.

Here in San Diego it has already nose dived.

Are open houses really generating traffic in SF?

CurrentOwner says:

Hey, u guys really think the market is going to crash in 2007 now? Prices are up pretty hefty in the city already. Have you gone to any open houses in SF? It’s like a mob scene!

The laughs never quit coming this evening. I did see a home in Larkspur went $200K UNDER asking after only 23 days on market. Sure, even at $1m it was probably overpriced by a good $300K, but hey, that's nearing halfway towards normalcy.

Any "mob scenes" you're seeing are almost assuredly frauds orchestrated by desperate, idle realtors who think they're being clever. I know those "madhouse bidding sprees" in Mountain View turned out to all be fake.

Maybe an enterprising lawyer out there can find some poor recent home buyer who got duped by a coven of realtors pulling off this scam and sue their asses off for fraud? Just an idea.

Realtor numbers show 7.5% YoY declines in N County which is scaring the pants off of the FBs. Some of the coastal areas are still way overpriced but are starting to look like 2003 2004 era prices. Pacific Beach is back to 2004 levels.

Current:
That's the real constraint. Lenders clamping down has been the main cause in the downturn scenario.

I was invited to join a class action against Radio Shack because of secuirties issues but I never owned stock in Radio Shack. I did shortsell Accredited Home Lenders for a nice profit and laughed when I got an invitation to participate in that class action lawsuit because the day I made a real killing was the day the stock lost 60%. I guess the lawyers are filing lawsuits everytime these stocks drop. What's even funnier is that the lawyers file the lawsuit, AND THEN go and look for lead plaintiffs. Isn't it supposed to work the other way around? Man this is coming to a head.

Lill, I sold a house 2 years ago for 440. 2 Novembers ago the new owners tried to flip it, unsuccessfully. It has been for sale ever since, and it is now a bank owned house asking $429, and it is now nowhere near being competitive with nicer homes in the high 300s.

DOM 62 and counting…perhaps it will be the first shortsale of the neighborhood. If it goes to the bank…I may try to buy it back for 700k?

Probably wouldn't recommend that.

We have a maid come in and clean the house every other week. I still clean the toilets on the weeks she doesn't come, since going two weeks without cleaning is just too long. I was campaigning for every week, but my wife talked me into every other.

I justify it to myself by saying that it gives me more time to spend with my daughter, which is true. Maybe that doesn't qualify as "without shame" though.

I have only been doing this for five months, but it is nice to not have to spend half of each Sunday cleaning the place.

We pay her $15/hr though, not $5 and she is legally allowed to work in the US.

Where are you GC?

We have a maid come in and clean the house every other week. I still clean the toilets on the weeks she doesn’t come, since going two weeks without cleaning is just too long. I was campaigning for every week, but my wife talked me into every other.
You lived in a Berkeley coop?! (or maybe that is where you picked up this regimen?) I feel like a total slob now :-(
Where are astrid and SFWoman? I feel like they represent the two warring halves of my brain on the immigration debate.
FAB, more stories from you childhood please. Tell us about the time you passed out while cleaning a rental house toilet with pool cleaner acid and then your father kicked you out of the house for a night because he thought you were sleeping on the job... Question(s), are you a landlord full time or do you have a day job (sorry, I don't believe I have picked this up from your posts)? Do you think this downturn will afford the same opportunities as the early nineties crash? Do you own properties directly or do you have a LLC?

What’s even funnier is that the lawyers file the lawsuit, AND THEN go and look for lead plaintiffs. Isn’t it supposed to work the other way around? Man this is coming to a head.

contains the seeds of its own destruction...

Where are astrid and SFWoman? I feel like they represent the two warring halves of my brain on the immigration debate.

and what are their view on frequency of cleaning toilets? we've forgotten about the traditional custodians of this venerable task :P

EBGuy Says:

> Where are astrid and SFWoman? I feel like they
> represent the two warring halves of my brain on
> the immigration debate.

If we have big fines for people that hire illegals (even the family that picks a guy up outside Home Depot) very few will find work and most will go home. We don’t need to put anyone in jail since we need the room in the jails for dangerous criminals (and it costs us taxpayers a ton of money to put someone away these days)…

> FAB, more stories from you childhood please. Tell us
> about the time you passed out while cleaning a
> rental house toilet with pool cleaner acid and then your
> father kicked you out of the house for a night because
> he thought you were sleeping on the job…

I don’t think I’ve ever passed out on the job, but I was close once when I my Dad gave me some Methyl Ethyl Ketone to get the black tar like glue off the floor of a rental home after I scraped off all the asbestos floor tiles (that day alone probably killed enough brain cells to lower my SAT and GMAT scores)…

> Question(s), are you a landlord full time or do you have
> a day job (sorry, I don’t believe I have picked this up from
> your posts)?

I just have two apartment buildings and I have on site managers who handle most of the day to day stuff (I get about 10-20 apartment related e-mails every day and my cell phone usually vibrates in important meetings). I have a day job as a Commercial Lender (Life Company, Agency and Conduit) so I work a lot of nights and weekends in the apartment business (I don’t have much to do with any of my parent’s property at all).

> Do you think this downturn will afford the same opportunities
> as the early nineties crash?

As I have mentioned before I think that there will be even more opportunities, but I think the recovery will take longer this time (I’m planning to buy stuff in better than average areas and manage the hell out of them for cash flow and not worry how long it takes for the places to double in value)

> Do you own properties directly or do you have a LLC?

I am the Managing Member (and only member) of two LLCs that own the apartments. Most people create LLCs to own properties these days, with many families going to the FLP (Family Limited Partnership) structure to transfer assets to lineal descendants. I just read in the Chronicle this weekend that neighbor of my parents just died at 106. I last saw her at her son’s funeral a couple years ago (he died in his 70’s, made the cut at the Crosby Pro Am in his 60’s, and was a nice guy when I caddied for him in his 50’s) and I was thinking that my Mom is probably going to outlive me so I’ll probably never inherit a penny…

Randy H.

Multiple offers a fake in Mountain View? What is that all about, and how can that happen?

spike66,

Is that what people mean when they say "an $11 head of lettuce"?

I don't support illegal immigrant rights/legalization because it is a moral hazard and degrades society's support for rule of law.

However, as an economic realist, I think we can only curb illegal immigration by severely punishing anyone hiring illegal immigrants. Punishing illegal immigrants would be ineffective, expensive, and lead to unnecessary abuse. Stem the demand and the supply will eventually go home.

Ultimately, I don't think it matters. Barring major technological breakthrough coupled with enlightened leadership (a bloody unlikely combination), I don't see humanity going anywhere good. We're screwed as a race, likely within the next 100 years.

astrid,

Why so glum? :(

Like Nicolas Cage said in "Lord of War"

"It's been said, when good men do nothing, evil prevails"

(He said that should just read: "evil prevails") :)

Pending Sales up.

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes surprisingly rose in February even as bad weather and weakness in the subprime lending sector put a crimp on the housing market, a real estate agents' trade association said Tuesday.

It'll be interesting to see if this holds through March. Feb was just before the subprime poo hit the fan. Of course, a bump in pending sales in February is all we need to call bottom, right?

Jon Basile, an economist with Credit Suisse of New York, said Monday's data "gives a feel that existing home sales has stabilized because they are higher than the lows of last year. At the very least, housing demand is not getting any worse."

Those pendings in February had/have to get funded in March/April, so it'll be interesting to see how many of those fall through.

SF08,

Doesn't surprise me. I believe I'd read in 2005 82% of CA loans were of the adjustable variety. So it's not much of a stretch. If there's a distinction between Sub and Alt-A all I can see is that sub is "known" bad and Alt-A is "probably" bad?

SFBB,

I think we've already pretty much de-bunked the value of "Pending Sales" as nothing more than CAR/NAR's way of knowing what's in the commission pipeline for realtwhores.

If you're flirting w/default and your home doesn't happen to be part of that "pipeline" well then I guess you're screwed now aren't you! Possibly the most meaningless statistic they put out?

This is good stuff:

http://www.epionline.org/study_detail.cfm?sid=87

They presented an excellent argument against hiking minimum wage.

And I have found a new hero for myself:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Berman

"doubly toasted?"

Uh huh. SoCalMortguy is currently corresponding with a reformed FB in exactly those circumstances. The long and short of it is, the guy was making 10 grand a month (for filling out forms and getting people to give him their SS#) and will l i k e l y have a tough time finding another job. At least one that pays that well for doing nothing!

I usually don't see movies when they first come out on DVD release. My kids know what I like and when they're done with them they find their way over to our place. What really scared me about it was, just how close to that life I'd really flirted. Active recruitment from G.I's at overseas installations is really a numbers game. Eventually they work a prospect (a hungry one) until he/she either walks or delivers. The only saving grace I had was that I was just smart enough to know that if you "delivered" they would own you. Close call.

Off topic:
Januari housing sales rise. "Bubble" continues. Yall can stop cheerleading for Satan and start enjoying live. Buy now or rent forever. BooYaa. LOL

Januari housing sales rise. “Bubble” continues. Yall can stop cheerleading for Satan and start enjoying live.

what teh hel? are you a looser?

Ok, who let Cramer out of his cage? Heck, I thought he was in trouble for publicly admitting to breaking securities laws while he was a hedge fund manager.

A looser? That depends on your definition of the word "looser"? According to Cramer I would be a smart investor.

Randy H
"I know those “madhouse bidding sprees” in Mountain View turned out to all be fake."

I still see it. Pure and blantant fraud. Realtors are pumping the price without any regard to law or ethics.

Didn't you all hear about the latest housing numbers? Doesn't sound like bubble-material to me. What are your thoughts, mister bubbleblogger?

HARM,

A lot of these guys that managed in the 90's are still p@ssed off about Reg. FD, Sarbox, decimalization, positive determination and other regulatory actions that basically gutted being a market maker. Sure, the guy is unhinged but most of the comments I'd read were actually phrased in the past tense.

From Washington Post last year, there were practically no enforcement in punishing employers under George W.

Between 1999 and 2003, work-site enforcement operations were scaled back 95 percent by the Immigration and Naturalization Service, which subsequently was merged into the Homeland Security Department. The number of employers prosecuted for unlawfully employing immigrants dropped from 182 in 1999 to four in 2003, and fines collected declined from $3.6 million to $212,000, according to federal statistics.

In 1999, the United States initiated fines against 417 companies. In 2004, it issued fine notices to three.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/18/AR2006061800613.html

CB, the priority is still anti-terrorism. Besides, it is hard to enforce against employers without a viable guest worker program. The labor market is telling us that the immigration system is broken.

Peter P,

Don't you know! Januari is the month that comes before Februari! :)

You can make fun of me but you can't ignore the facts.

Talking about immigration. I have one word "Minutemen".

CB,

Well, as FAB pointed out, conservative Republicans generally like to *talk* tough about immigration, but when it comes to walking the walk, most of them get cold feet.

Given that Democrats rarely like to say anything bad about illegals inpublic, it's highly ironic that employer-side enforcement actually fell over 99% under a completely Republican-led government vs. the Clinton-era.

@Cramer blows best!!!

What facts?

Talking about immigration. I have one word “Minutemen”.

The border watch program is a good idea.

Another issue on any immigration bill....lets revoke birthright citizenship. Why should people break the law by illegally entering the US, use the emergency room to deliver their baby (usually at someone else"s expense), and then be allowed to declare that new baby a "citizen"...entitled to all the protections and liberties of our constitution, and by the way, use of some taxpayer entitlements as well. Until we change that, they will keep streaming across the borders. We are one of the few countries left that allows this. We need to reinterpret the 14th amendment.

Whether it's 3.6 mil or 212k in fines, spread out over the entire country that's still pretty nominal. :(

If I owned a business that employed illegals... I guess I'd take my chances.