patrick.net

I smell a GREAT reality show here. “Lifestyles of the F*kked and Cluel3ss”.

Take some of these stories, hire some photogenic actors, ‘re-enact’ the happy heloc party-times: Hummers, Excrelades, jetskis, vacations, etc. and then cut to how it ends: tears, repos, ridicule and divorce.

I have thought about that myself; It could make a nice soap opera too:

"As the Bubble Inflates"

Followed by the sequel

"As the Bubble Deflates"

I wonder how many "cash" buyers are really HELOC-ers.

skibum,

What that would tend to indicate to me is that the market is coming to it's senses and folks that would've been previously looking at trophy property are coming down to earth? To a certain degree we're seeing it here as well.

And yes, we are that screwed up.

Many believes that there is a lot of money out there. The truth is that there is a lot of liquidity out there. More specifically, the house-of-cards type of liquidity.

We are in interesting times.

Interesting to note that the review of the “Armageddon Gang” glossed over the fact that while some of these doom and gloom bestsellers never fully came to fruition doesn’t mean we’re on solid ground.

DinOR,

People don't like bad news; The mass media will always deny anything bad is going to happen. People refer to "doom and gloomers" as very paranoid people. I say it's better to wise up to the facts and be paranoid, then to wake up one day and be right smack in the middle of it.

How about changing the look of a prozac pill to look like a bubble with a house in the center and market it as “bubble-ease” for those who will be depressed as they see their biggest financial asset drop in value?

That would be wrong. :lol:

EBGuy,

No, no I don't have anything against guys that were selling aluminum siding on Friday and were MB's on Monday. No nothing at all!

I've really been waiting for MountainViewRenter to chime in b/c there has been one helluva stink in the securities arena this week! An e-mail was sent out Monday and said that "managed accounts" are in a state of absolute chaos. Seems the Investor Advisor Act of 1940 is being brought into question. The long and short of it is, if you're not an RIA you may have to convert your "managed" accts. over to comm. base b/c there apparently have been abuses. Primarily guys charging 1-2% AND offering ETF IPO's w/an underwriting spread (syndicate business). So 4-5% which is clearly NOT what the client agreed to. I know it would hardly make a ripple here but believe me the industry is shaking in it's boots right now.

This IS the train wreck scenario for Chas. Schwab b/c after years of raising bil's (and then not being able to figure out a way to get paid on it) they felt they'd finally found their revenue stream in managed accts. Oops.

Not that I'm some kind of freaking altar boy but I've been saying this was coming for years. And I'm glad.

allah,

What people fail to realize is that guys like Peter Schiff would infinitely prefer there had never been a subprime meltdown. Do any of us really think he "enjoys" being that crabby?

If we have no restraints on the way up, that's fine. Just don't look for me to accomodate FB's and their "Lifestyles of the F#cked and Cluel3ss" on the way down. We just have to suck this one up.

Skibum,
I did find this tidbit in Carol Llyod's column to be quite interesting...
Already, lending guidelines have grown far more favorable since their inception -- in some cases lowering the down-payment requirement from 25 percent to 10 percent.
Don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of TICs (as this is how I bought within my means -- way back in 2000. None of this sissy "lets all have a different loan stuff" either... everybody signed on the dotted line together). But if condos ever get overbuilt in the City, TICs are going to be the first to take a real hit. If I was a bank, I don't think I'd want to be holding a bag that can only weather a 10% downturn in the market (no matter what the risk premium). That said, I think by 2037 the last "tenant" in SF will be Ellised out of their apartment and all the rental stock will have been converted to TICs. The market will always find a way around the Board of Supes.

EBGuy,

On the other hand, a 10% down payment is still 10% (or more) over what a lot of FBs have on their properties. At least there are some minimum requirements.

Let’s not forget that Sam Zell recently sold $39 Billion in real estate (and will have so much cash that he will probably move in to the top 25 on next years Forbes 400)…

Zell is buying Tribune Co. Maybe it is time for an old-line media comeback? Seems like a smart move to me. In the long run, I doubt Google can continue to poach such a large share of ad revenues from content providers.

Glen,

That and the Cubs are a cash cow. Low salaries (comparatively) great national exposure and televising rights plus a fan base that only needs an occasional win to keep the seats filled! A dream come true.

Please note that the pic of Galina appears to have been taken in happier times. There are presents on the table behind them, as if it may be their wedding reception, which would put it at about 3 years ago. At the time, Casey was ambitious and probably had many stories to tell G of how he would take care of her, protect her, and give her a nice life because he was going to make so many sweet deals. She probably though Casey was, indeed, a sweet deal. At the time...

But now, three years later she has had to quit school. They have no money, are bankrupt, and Casey has ruined her credit. They live with relatives (I think) and all he does is blog all day.

She probably looks like crap now from all the stress he's caused her. I would not be surprised if she's kicking Casey's sorry ass all over their borrowed room every damn night, before finishing him off with a good swift undercut to the balls. G'night Case, you LOOSER! I hate you... G.

http://rereport.com/scc/

Prices Set New Record Highs in Santa Clara County

"The problems in the sub-prime mortgage market have had some unintended consequences. Demand and sales in the entry-level segment of the real estate market have fallen as lending requirements have tightened. Coupled with a strong million dollar plus market, we have the illusion of higher prices because high-end sales are a larger portion of all sales. That is one of the inherent problems with statistical analysis."

lunarpark: Are you saying that the average price in Santa Clara is RISING? Geez, maybe you guys are in danger of getting priced out forever!

“The problems in the sub-prime mortgage market have had some unintended consequences. Demand and sales in the entry-level segment of the real estate market have fallen as lending requirements have tightened."

As predicted on this board two years ago.

I think he means that of 6 buyers, 3 paid 100%, 1 paid 50%, 1 30%, and 1 paid 25%.

"maybe you guys are in danger of getting priced out forever!"

I'm happy as long as my rent doesn't "skyrocket." :)

Geez, maybe you guys are in danger of getting priced out forever!

Huh? With the low-end collapsing, it is obvious that median/average price will go up.

This was predicted many months ago. You can dig up some old threads/comments if you want to.

BTW, I really do not care for good school districts. People are in a frenzy to buy in those places just for school enrolment.

I don't care about school district either. I just want a nice condo/townhouse or loft type place.

"Prime property" was only used twice in the link I submitted. I think he should have used it at least three times for the right effect.

I think there is a ton of condo-type inventory in Fremont/Newark if you do not mind. My wife does not like that area too much though.

"Huh? With the low-end collapsing, it is obvious that median/average price will go up."

$800K 900 sqft former 70s apartment near Google is what I call low-end.

Nice 700K decline back to its former glory.

I thought it was funny that they noted that the first rung of the propperty ladder had all but collapsed, but then practically screamed "YOU GOTTA JUMP FAST FOR THE NEXT RUNG OR YOU'LL BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!"

Fremont/Newark, no thanks. I'll just remain a JBR on the Los Altos border :)

Who is Galina Casey?

Is FRPT optionable?

DinOR says,

I’ve really been waiting for MountainViewRenter to chime in b/c there has been one helluva stink in the securities arena this week! An e-mail was sent out Monday and said that “managed accounts” are in a state of absolute chaos.

I haven't heard about this, actually. We don't recommend any SAMs precisely because of the lack of investment & governance oversight. There are a couple of clients that have these because these managers have been close personal friends of the clients' for many years.

That would suck if Schwab takes it in the chin. We use them to hold a good amount of assets. Their data downloads are pretty decent, and I like our institutional service team guys. Always wondered how they made money off us though. They probably make less than $50k off our clients each year. Hardly enough for the amount of work we make them do.

DinOR, do you know where I can find a copy of this email?

NIA

I’m happy as long as my rent doesn’t “skyrocket.” :)

That's not far off, you know. As average prices hurtle skywards, landlords will start pulling their apartments and do more condo conversions. Now that the bottom has come and passed, you'd better get off the fence, amigos!

:twisted:

Hey, does anybody know how to get prior mortgage information on an REO? There's one in town that interests me, and I'd like to know which lender owns it.

That was a quick bottom. I missed it as it whizzed by me...

FAB

I have the same opinion about the banality of drivel that inhabits most of MySpace. Of course, I could say the same about most of everything on the Internet. But before we congratulate ourselves for being the old Muppets up in the theater box let us not forget that MySpace is generating hundreds of millions positive net free cash flow, with a pretty impressive CAGR. Sure, not billions, but the question was whether Web 2.0 companies were generating anything. Many of them are. It is the inverse of the dot-com bubble where many were not, and only a very few were.

No. Remember, 95% of the options expire worthless.

Exactly. Selling options can be lucrative.

Not investment advice. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors.

MtViewRenter,

The only e-mail I have was generated internally so it's not ready for broadcasting just yet. I've been to the NASD, SEC, NYSE AND the broker forms at Registered Rep www.rrmag.com and there's NO mention of it!

It's not just firms of your scale. Imagine all the independents out there that clear thru Schwab and haven't used a comm. based acct. in uh FIVE years!?!

This is where the industry gets "wrapped around the axle" from a regulatory standpoint. Charging commissions=bad. Charging pre-determined flat rate fees=bad. You could see it coming but what's the answer? I mean, I'm open.

That was a quick bottom. I missed it as it whizzed by me…

Falling cats often hurtle past quickly. In fact, their velocity is proportional to the height from which they are dropped. Don't worry, you can still catch the bounce. Shed the shackles of your jaded, bitter rentership! Do you doomsday prophets want to watch the cat, or be the cat?

Beeeee the cat. Nanananananana.

GC,

Now... just what k i n d of "artist" was this fellow again?

I was doing some naked put selling in 2001. I lost several months worth of profit in one trade because I failed to cut loss short. (Instead, I sold more puts.)

Back then, many stocks had triple-digit implied volatilities though.

I've often thought to myself that the FIRST photograph ever taken was probably a sunset. (Photographer and assistant turn toward one another) Clicks! (Second photograph was of a nude woman). Sheesh.

So let us pray that Ag skyrockets in next few weeks.

If you really believe in that you should have bought calls or initiated bull spreads. :)

Or just plain bought silver...

How come GLD is still non-optionable? :(