patrick.net

Jimbo Says:

> Yeah, except you can’t rent a $1.3M home for $2000/mo.
> $3000 is more like it. I asked you show me examples a
> few threads back and you couldn’t do it.

I did send some examples a while back (and even included a home on a street of recent $4-$7mm sales is Jordan Park south of California that was renting for $4.4mm)…

Below is a place in Burlingame that is renting for $2,395 that would probably sell for about $900K (there is a recent sale on the street for $880K and a couple other recent sales east of El Camino) of a 2x1 on Oak Grove for $1.1mm and a 2x2 on Crossway for $1.3mm.

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/310656587.html

Here is a tiny East of El Camino place renting for $1,900 that would probably sell for $800K.

URL deleted but you can look for it.

I could not find much of anything in Burlingame or San Mateo west of El Camino (where the values are a lot higher but the rents are just a little higher) for rent since it looks like most (unlike my parents) have cashed in and sold to idiots for over $1mm.

With that said it looks like we have seen some rent increases on the Peninsula this year and you will probably pay closer to $2,500 (almost double the property taxes) to rent a $1.3mm home on the peninsula today (or a $1.3mm 1br condo in SF)…

P.S. I agree with Randy that (in Marin) you can not least a $1.3mm home for $3K, but in a place like Woodside on a street like Hillside (that is about as wide as my parents driveway and is full of crappy little homes) you can rent a $1.5mm home for $2K a month (a friend used to rent on the street and every recent sale has been a teardown)…

How was servicing a $290K debt with $250K risky? The PITI would be less than $2700 a month. Plenty of money left for sushi.

least = lease

Randy,

Thanks!!!

(I just read a New Yorker article that "!!!" is good e-communication etiquette)

We'll see how my boyfriend takes to finance and economics. I don't think the math will present a problem for him (he finally told me his silent retort to my numerous prior mentions about taking graduate math class was that he took advanced calculus, did pretty well, and don't see the point of taking more math classes). He got a 7 on his IB HL math, for whatever that's worth.

The other likely route is indeed to go to law school and be an IP attorney. However, if he wants to go that route and commit to 3 years and upwards of $150K in student loans, he better be sure he likes working 80 hour work weeks for about a decade, possibly in an overcrowded field where getting an equity partnership is less and less likely. Plus, he said he lost interest in his previous job because he didn't feel he got enough support from his superiors and was getting bored by the job. So I don't think this would be a good route for him.

Astrid, do you know the sun sign of your boyfriend?

Huh? He's a gemini.

He's also (half seriously) considering playing internet poker to see how good he can get.

(I know, to be so young and wacky :) )

I'm not exactly sure how much the MFE at UCB costs. I'd be surprised if it were much under $45-50K.

POP QUIZ

Yes put down your books and keep your eyes on your own work because it is time to test your mettle on reading and retaining this latest thread's postings.

here is the drill
16 posts were "spot on" with the premise of "pocket listings"
attribute the poster to the postings - good luck

1- can afford but won't buy a 1.3m shit-house

2-has been compared to Elaine an old friend of Brand by speaking with a sulphuric tongue

3 -claims that an onomatopeia was flung at him

4-posted this math equation{1.137^5*0.945^4=1.52}

5-jumped on a BMX after gang's spray painted a building

6-claims metaphysically that we are all jukubots

7-sat in an ebay boxster in venice feeling envious of meth heads with hot tattoed chicks

8-wondered if Mrs Skibum had a problem with premature withdrawal

9-turned off by realtwhores with the execu-slut look

10-has the ability to see women undressing in high-rise condos while driving at 50mph on highway

11-claims not to care about zits on a roach

12- correcty and emphatically stated the meaing of tramp stamp

13-chooses to live precariously by posting his thoughts on attractive kids

14-knows by having read Psycology Today that randy should change his avatar on 2nd life to a more perfect symetry if his goal is finding an orgasmic trophy blonde (is that an oxymoron sry)

15-claims 1/3 responsiblity on the mounds of crustacean parts left last week in DC

16-pines for lobster bisque pastry at tommy toys but was left wandering why nobody replied to his invitation to go there

Possible Answers-- TOS- softest landing - peter p- skibum--malcolm-dinor- former apt broker- headset--jimbo -GC -astrid- SP-robert cote-

correct answers on a later thread

"Below is a place in Burlingame that is renting for $2,395 that would probably sell for about $900K (there is a recent sale on the street for $880K and a couple other recent sales east of El Camino) of a 2x1 on Oak Grove for $1.1mm and a 2x2 on Crossway for $1.3mm."

900k or even 800K ... i dont think so... homes like this were selling for one third (1/3) a few years ago. I sure feel sorry for ths idiot who thinks these homes are worth that much...

Thats my view... no justification for the prices... eventually this puppy will drop by 50%.

Huh? He’s a gemini.

He’s also (half seriously) considering playing internet poker to see how good he can get.

My brother-in-law is also a Gemini who likes to play internet poker to see how good he can get.

I refer to my earlier discussion about how non-prime areas like RWC have risen to close the gap with places like Menlo, which is clearly not justified or sustainable.

Randy H (and others),

We've made an assumption that homes in "subprime areas" like RWC have increased in value to come absurdly close in price to "prime" areas, and this is silly, unsustainable, and bound to revert to historical norms. What if this trend doesn't revert? Many (but certainly not all) of the people buying these $1M stucco boxes are usually educated, make at least BA median household income, and would have preferred buying in Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Los Altos, whatever. Say these folks stay in RWC (or wherever) and permanently change the demographics of the place. Won't this essentially be a "forced" gentrification of these areas? I've already noticed this has happened in places like San Carlos and others.

Thanks to everyone who answered my question.

I actually agreed with many things said by TOS ! Wow.

TOS is not evil. However, he seems to have some karmic conflict with Randy.

So I have a question for Patrick.net bloggers. If you were earning around 200K, had 200K in down payment, would you buy a 1.3M house ?

In my company of 500 people we only have 8 people making 200K and above.

Many more are making 85-100K... the least paid has 10years of experience. Even so, a persons salary does not add value to a overpriced home. What your seeing is Wage Inflation, the same wage inflation we had back in the early 70s.

skibum

I think some of that will happen. I can only speak from experience about RWC, and comparatively say Menlo, San Carlos and Belmont, the latter where I also owned a home.

It's true there's been a big turnover of basically retirees and a few ill-maintained stucco s-boxes in the past 10 years to college educated professionals. This is good for the area. In fact, the grade school in that particular RWC neighborhood was of the top ranked of all CA grade schools a couple of the past 10 years.

But the high school is a war zone. And the population of the non-prime RWC has grown much much faster than the population of neo-prime RWC. This forces young families into private schools, increasingly much sooner because of competition (existing students get priority), thereby guaranteeing the high school stays broken.

Comparatively, San Carlos and Belmont have been much more specific about subtly and purposefully gentrifying themselves. They discourage growth in the non-prime areas with zoning, but suddenly become looser on zoning when a redevelopment comes in. RWC recently voted down a huge redevelopment effort which probably ensures for the next 20 years no major will want to move in and undertake any large projects.

You can't have a prime area in a diverse town like RWC without a reasonable middle class. All I've seen happen there is a growing barbell.

Space Acer, for a family, 2 x 100K = 200K.

Randy,

Yes, but $50 would be manageable compared to twice that much (for Boalt, UVA, or UMich law degree) or three times as much (for a Harvard, Yale, or Stanford law degree).

A greater concern to me is how crowded and stifling the law school career path happens to be. A smart person with a finance or engineering degree do lots of interesting things with his or her degree/skill/experience and jump into a totally different career if the current one is not to their liking. With a law degree, if you want to make good money you pretty much have to make partner.

It takes just a few non-belongers to ruin an area. If prop 13 stays, it is going to take decades to flush out bad elements.

Comparatively, San Carlos and Belmont have been much more specific about subtly and purposefully gentrifying themselves. They discourage growth in the non-prime areas with zoning, but suddenly become looser on zoning when a redevelopment comes in.

Yeah, I basically agree with you. Anectodally, in San Carlos and Belmont, for example, peri-El Camino appears pretty stagnant, while I continually see new McMansions being put up (both tear-downs and infills) up in the hills closer to 280.

Also, I want to encourage some diversification. His sister is engaged to a lawyer (and have voiced interest in law school on several occasions) and his brother's liberal arts degree will probably eventually land him law school (provided he doesn't get blown up in Iraq or Afganistan or Iran first).

astrid, looks like MFE is a good deal for your boyfriend then.

TOS is certainly listening more, a very positive sign.

I wonder what kind of income mix makes for the most stable marriages? Would 2x$100K > $150K+$50K? would $200K > $160K+$40K?

astrid

I agree, except that I think there are more options open to those holding law degrees too. Many IP attorneys do quite well in the corporate world. I went to B-School with one who made quite a bundle riding through a couple biotech acquisitions. If anything, IP law will become more contentious in the next decade.

I wonder what kind of income mix makes for the most stable marriages?

Interesting. I think 2x 100K and 200K + 0K are all good candidates.

With a law degree, if you want to make good money you pretty much have to make partner.

astrid,

When you say good money in the law partnership context, you're talking about significant multiples of HaHa's at the expense of losing your soul and lifeblood. Many shoot for this, obviously few get it, and those who do often seem miserable. As you probably know, a huge (probably majority) of associates at big law firms end up bailing and going into other avenues, many of which make perfectly good, if not great salaries. In house counsel is popular, especially for tech/science background IP types, and if you look at the rosters of investment houses, many, many of their army are JDs (not that the lifestyle there is much better). Bottom line, there are options other than the shoot-for-partnership up or out track.

How about environmental law?

I once thought of going that route. Corporations need environmental lawer to combat increasing draconian regulations.

RE: eternal winter

The global warming crowd has been very quiet lately.

skibum,

My understanding is that most in-house counsels make 1-2 Ha Has. I work in a pretty fancy law firm and have been around long enough to see some interesting personnel changes, I get the sense that in-house counsel positions are highly coveted and not particularly easy to get.

Peter P,

You've described Environmental Law as it is practiced around my firm. Remember that huge multinational firms need defenders too :)

Space Acer, for a family, 2 x 100K = 200K.

Long term I dont see this!

And after you have a kid or two???
It drops down to 1x100K = 100K
I see plenty of women who drop out
to raise a family.

You’ve described Environmental Law as it is practiced around my firm. Remember that huge multinational firms need defenders too

Yes. Even China has strict environmental laws.

newsfreak,

Please do click on my name and have a look at my seed list. I can't believe it's mid April already.

He could specialize in windmills like Don Quixote.

LOL :lol:

If he goes to Sedona and experiences a harmonic convergence,
he will have special powers.

You mean the vortex experience?

This is so funny though, we're talking about my boyfriend as though he's a 2 year old Chinese adopted baby. Good thing he never reads this blog.

Maybe he's really Daniellynn's daddy.

skibum Says:

> We’ve made an assumption that homes in “subprime areas”
> like RWC have increased in value to come absurdly close in
> price to “prime” areas, and this is silly, unsustainable, and
> bound to revert to historical norms. What if this trend doesn’t
> revert? Many (but certainly not all) of the people buying these
> $1M stucco boxes are usually educated, make at least BA
> median household income, and would have preferred buying
> in Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Los Altos, whatever. Say these folks
> stay in RWC (or wherever) and permanently change the
> demographics of the place. Won’t this essentially be a “forced”
> gentrification of these areas?

As a student of real estate I have never heard of an area that changed from a bad area to a good area without the use of “eminent domain” where the government forcibly removes large numbers of poor people. Can anyone name an area that changed from “bad” aka “scary” “gang infested” that changed without government intervention?

> I’ve already noticed this has happened in places like San
> Carlos and others.

San Carlos (and Belmont and Burlingame) have gotten “better” and “richer” in the last 10 years but there were never any “bad” areas in the cities ever.

P.S. Big business likes close in poor areas (since they like low paid employees to have a place to live). Every time politicians try and “clean up” an area nothing really happens. The parts of town that were bad areas (like the Tenderloin and 6th street between Market and Mission) in the 1940’s when my parents were little kids are still bad areas…

P.P.S. Of course I may be wrong and “since they are not making any more land” we might see 1,200 sf homes in Redwood City East of the tracks selling for $2mm by 2010…

This is so funny though, we’re talking about my boyfriend as though he’s a 2 year old Chinese adopted baby. Good thing he never reads this blog.

You have said nothing negative about your boyfriend yet.

@astrid,

I'm late to the party, but Kurt Vonnegut was also one of my favorite authors. I did a paper on him in H.S. and used a "Kilgore Trout" dystopia from Breakfast of Champions as my inspiration for Jurassic Popsicle.

If you folks are bored, there's this fun thread today:

http:/s.fark.com/cgi/fark/comments.pl?IDLink=2737347