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By Peter P follow Peter P   2007 Apr 15, 5:24am 32,178 views   399 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


New math and new paradigm. How will they shape our future?

To advance, we must imagine the unthinkable and consider the impossible.

What are such unthinkable or impossible housing events? If we are creative enough, we may be able to analyze them to gain valuable insights.

#housing

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360   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:17am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

There is plenty of malice towards the seller and realtor, low ball bid, actually low low ball. Personal issues are forcing the "owners" to sell and there aren't any other offers out there. I too hope that the whole thing fails as the thought of so much debt added to my clean slate scares the crapola outa me.

361   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:18am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Authenticate yourself, alleged surfer.

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

362   DaBoss   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:20am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

363   DaBoss   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:20am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

364   DinOR   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Now I'm REALLY confused.

ALL businesses lose money for at least the first (3) years. Why wouldn't a guy go the "consulting" route and play it out for at least '07 filing and see what the market brings? "I" don't see "funding drying up" for anyone but the LEAST "qualified" buyers. With a 780 and even a little savings this wouldn't include you. Why the sense of urgency now?

365   DaBoss   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"the range of $500k to 550K"... too much for a home here. Thats what I call a CEO Home... When you are being paid that much your job will be exported. Seen that way too many times already.

Everyone wants to play the Chief and no one wants to be just an Indian.

366   DinOR   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peter P,

Hear hear! What exactly did Robert bring?

Well??? We're waiting...

367   skibum   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Space Ace,

Speaking of "high flying economy," did you catch the SFGate article on the Web 2.0 expo up in SF?

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/17/BUGCQP9MKB1.DTL

How much more smugness can one place have? Everyone's patting themselves on the back over a bunch of smoke and mirrors known as "Web 2.0".

368   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

Hmmm, can't remember what Cote' etal. brought but his wife is pretty hot, (as is Mrs HARM), the Cote'-ette lit off fireworks and painted with Mrs-X.

You brought some interesting Miso, red and blue.

DinOR, just had a list of requirements and a price, found a place that met both. I know that it is going to keep dropping but there has to be a Mexican stand-off somewhere. The current bailout proposals just scream backlash to me, and the way to "assure" that "this doesn't happen again" is to screw the middle class. Plus mini-X is due to arrive in August. I don't like being at the whim of the landlord, I can handle that I have to make the payment, but landlord can at anytime give me a month to get out. Dogs make finding a rental down here a pain in the ass. Landlord is cool, but I'd rather deal with myself.

369   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Thats what I call a CEO Home…

CEO income ranges from $1 to $100M+. I am not sure what you mean.

Outsourcing does not happen overnight. It has a lot of stickiness to it.

BTW, 600K is at the same time a lot and very little depending on how you see it. Wages in India and China are going up like crazy. Perhaps they will catch up to us.

In China, a nice house will still cost you US$ 2M+.

600K gets you nothing more than an old, tiny apartment in many parts of Asia but those people still have jobs.

370   DinOR   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peter P,

One could always just search for "blog party" and could have gotten that, right?

371   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

One could always just search for “blog party” and could have gotten that, right?

Nope, Peter P's wife (who is also hot) went to the Mission with her friend. Peter P, your miso was interesting, I can't for the life of me figure out how they keep the clams alive.

Bush II is the President, the Cubs won the world series, and Boston is the capital of New York. Sorry, watching too many WWII movies. (authentication of German spies)

372   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:38am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I can’t for the life of me figure out how they keep the clams alive.

I now believe the clams where vacuum-packed and then COOKED. That was how they kept them "alive." :)

373   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

One could always just search for “blog party” and could have gotten that, right?

I never mentioned the miso though. :)

374   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DinOR, I am not a money guy, the best I can gleen out of the data is that you should only pay ~2.3-3.8x your income on housing. The coast has always been a little more expensive, so I am willing to go about 4x, that's my comfort zone. What did it for me was the calhfa program including 6 months of payments in the deal. 5.625% seems pretty close to free money for me, just from reading you guys, and what I know the inflation to actually be. There is a huge fear factor in the increased monthly nut but not as big as trying to find a new rental with 2 dogs, Mrs-X and Lil-X. Everyone I have interviewed says the same thing, they were scared shitless when the "bought" their first house. We waited and waited and are not willing to do the it's your first house thing, it's supposed to be a crapbox, this place is nice and needs nothing. So screw it.

375   HARM   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DinOR, Peter P,

I'm afraid we must conclude that this is the *real* Surfer-X.

X-man, if you were able to get anything liveable (never mind turnkey) in Ventura for 4X non-CEO income, then I guess you really did power-lowball them. Congratulations! You are the first (hopefully among many) on this blog to successfully crack seller's mental accounting and get a truly "fair market" price.

Perhaps Mr. Randall H is next...?

376   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 6:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Surfer-X, you have my karmic support. We will manifest your success!

377   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

El HARM-O, I have full faith that the realtor/seller's greed will negate any chance of them accepting the fair market value for this one. I had originally predicted 3rd/4th quarter 07 as the point to catch the falling knife. We'll see. Regardless we should start preparing for the summer blog party.

Another bonus of Ventura is Kaiser is available. Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

378   DinOR   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What is this, "6 months of payments included in the deal" deal?

379   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

UNH? I sold too early. :(

380   Peter P   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:04am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What is this, “6 months of payments included in the deal” deal?

That depends what the definition of is is.

381   HARM   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Re: blog party. I agree.
Am willing to host it at my own pathetic rental, though my place isn't big. LILLL and Athena also mentioned hosting --we'll have to talk offline.

382   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DinOR, calhfa makes the payments if you lose you job, up to 6 months, which from experience is about what it takes to find another decent job.

383   DinOR   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Well... as long as the seller was utterly financially decimated and sent to the closing with their tail between their legs and has to deal with X's former LL then I guess I can get onboard! :)

Don't forget to add stipulations and reservations all throughout the entire process with statements like "We just assumed the appliances were staying"! Threaten to "back out" at the slightest hint of compromise and just be a general PITA every step of the way! When you're done w/them the LAST thing they'll ever want to do is to flip another house!

384   DinOR   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

OH.... o.k.

I wasn't sure if it was one of those Vegas "cash back deals" or NO payments for the first year! It's about time they have some "PMI" for the buyer! Any other states have similar programs?

385   skibum   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Another bonus of Ventura is Kaiser is available. Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

Kaiser has their issues, too. There's a reason it's the cheapest HMO out there.

386   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

skibum, I have had good luck with Kaiser and I understand their billing, Shot? $15.00, got a cold? $15.00, mauled by a Grizzly? $15.00, bee sting? $15.00

Last Dec Mrs-X had an Asthma attack, Mrs-X is 4 months pregnant, I called UHC's advice nurse, the work advice nurse and the hospital, all 3 said "go to the emergency room" we go to emergency room, UHC pays this as a non-emergency emergency, and pays the attending Dr. the network rate, Dr is not in the network. Cost me $1200 out of pocket and I have spent 4 months trying to fix it. None of this crap happened at Kaiser.

387   skibum   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Cost me $1200 out of pocket and I have spent 4 months trying to fix it. None of this crap happened at Kaiser.

Geez, that bites.

I'll admit that sounds worse than Kaiser. Kaiser's issues are:

good: cheap coverage, decent care *in general*.

bad: cost-cutting means, occasionally, you will be denied care for things they consider "cutting edge."

For most young, generally healthy people, Kaiser is great. Really sick people I think get less than optimal care there.

(Not healthcare advice).

388   HARM   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 7:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

skibum,

Kaiser now has a PPO plan available for when you need/want to go out of network. Typically pays 80%, with 20% out-of-pocket after deductible is met.

389   sfbubblebuyer   ignore (1)   2007 Apr 17, 7:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I had Kaiser for awhile. They're great until you get REALLY hurt/sick. Then... not so much.

390   skibum   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 8:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I had Kaiser for awhile. They’re great until you get REALLY hurt/sick. Then… not so much.

SFBB, Exactly.

Kaiser now has a PPO plan available for when you need/want to go out of network. Typically pays 80%, with 20% out-of-pocket after deductible is met.

HARM, 20% out-of-pocket is fine until you need a bone marrow transplant ($100k or so), coronary bypass operation (same price range), or other major intervention, if there happens to be some tweak on it that Kaiser deems "outside of the standard of medical care."

Maybe you're right - we should talk about healthcare sometime - how does it relate to housing? FB's forgoing basic healthcare to cover housing payments? Aging boomers and their effect on healthcare vs. housing?

391   Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq   ignore (2)   2007 Apr 17, 9:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hello all!

I really love this blog and I'm looking to find doom bloggers who know something about the Valencia/Santa Clarita area of Los Angeles.

I've been sitting out the market for two years hoping sanity would come back to prices, but I've lost patience and decided to buy. I can't put my family's life on hold any longer.

Anyone got tips or info about buying in the Valencia area? I've pretty much identified the neighborhood, fired up my Foreclosure.com account, and started working the area with a buyer/rebate agent.

Thoughts?

392   astrid   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 9:46am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

smarter jukubots, please!

393   astrid   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 9:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Surfer-X,

Mazel tov!

394   Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq   ignore (2)   2007 Apr 17, 9:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hey, I'm not a bot! I guess my post does sound very botish though.

Seriously, any Valencia area info would be great.

395   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 9:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

astrid tanks!

396   Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq   ignore (2)   2007 Apr 17, 9:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

And just to add to the conversation, yes UnitedHealthcare blows. Kaiser has been great.

397   astrid   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 10:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Oh fine...sorry to J. Pake if he or she is a real person. :)

398   astrid   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 10:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Or a smarter bot! I should not insult my future robot overlords either.

399   Different Sean   ignore (0)   2007 Apr 17, 11:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

there ya go...

SAN FRANCISCO / Bill Clinton calls U.S. health care 'uneconomical'

SF
Sunday, April 15, 2007

The dire state of the nation's health care system is threatening the country's well-being, former President Bill Clinton told a receptive crowd in San Francisco on Saturday.

'Our health care system is immoral because it doesn't provide health care to everybody,' said Clinton, the keynote speaker at KCBS Health Etc., a daylong symposium at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. 'It's wildly uneconomical. We pay more than everybody else in the world for less.'

'It is sowing the seeds of its own destruction,' said Clinton, who said health care is one of the top three problems the country faces, along with economic inequality and energy dependence.

Like a patient professor trying to break down a complex issue for his students, Clinton used a plethora of statistics, and a touch of humor, in his indictment of the current state of American health care.

He said the United States spends 16 percent its national income on health care, compared with 11 percent in Canada and Switzerland, the countries with the next highest spending. That gap represents $800 billion a year, he said.

Yet the United States ranks only 37th in the world in overall health care, insures fewer of its citizens, and pays more for its drugs, Clinton said.

Almost a third of U.S. health care spending goes to administrative costs, the highest in the world, he said.

"We're letting the health insurance financing tail wag the health-care dog," he said.

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