patrick.net

Paul,

I'm not familiar with Milwaulkee's local economy and housing market, but I'd take a guess that it's part of the Midwest economic downturn. In that case, it wouldn't surprise me that the crime stats are so bad there, even in 2006.

Peter P Says:
From “FBI Warns of Copycat Attacks”
Today’s events are perfect argument for gun ownership. A conceal carry owner could’ve taken this nut job down!
Comment by Hugh Higgins

I totally agree. Banning guns will only make the innocent more vulnerable.

This just gets nuttier and nuttier. Some of the comments on that blog are the most insane and parochial I've read anywhere on anything. Most other 'civilised' countries where guns are effectively banned don't have any problems with school massacres. When was the last time you heard about a school or college massacre in the UK? (Apart from a single one some years back that triggered even stricter gun control laws. And I would argue that was a 'copycat' of events reported from America.) Security forces, private or public, are the only people who should be allowed to carry guns, and even that is a little scary.

When guns are outlawed, they are increasingly taken out of the hands of criminals as well -- given that every time they are apprehended, they are removed from circulation. There will always be some illegal ownership, but overall there is a net reduction. Crimes involving guns (holdups, etc) have dropped 60% in Australia over the last few years, for instance. And no, they don't substitute baseball bats to intimidate 7/11 owners...

The other thing is, someone wrote (as certain Americans always do) that the Bill of Rights need no further amendments, and still does the job perfectly, even in a modern, industrialised society. I find it amazing that a document written 2 centuries ago under completely different conditions in a frontier society should be so perfect today -- in a time where attempted assassinations of a king would be met with being hung, drawn and quartered in public view, for instance, and you could be hung for stealing an item of clothing.

For those who consider themselves innocent and vulnerable, do you carry a gun around?

I don't, and I have no intention to live in a society where everyone is obliged to carry a gun with him wherever he goes so that he can "protect" himself. Do I need to carry a gun when I go to grocery shopping? Do I need to carry a gun when I send my kid to school? Does my kid need to carry a gun to school so that he can "protect" himself? Do I need to fit out bullet-proof windows and solid rubber tires for my car to "protect" myself?

I have no idea what we as a whole lose if nobody is allowed to carry a gun, plain and simple. I grew up in a place with strict gun control, lived in a few countries with strict gun control, all of them have substantially lower crime rate than the US.

Back to real estate.

The spike in CA foreclosures is on the national MSM:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/16/real_estate/bc.usa.subprime.californiadefaults.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007041618

Even the RE lackey posing as an academic, Alan Gin, thinks there's a ways to go, although I don't see why he is so confident the Fed will cut rates at the end of this year:

"It's hard for me to say whether or not the damage is done in those areas," said economist Alan Gin of the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.

"It probably won't be until 2008 before we seen some improvement," Gin said, referring to California's default trend. "I anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in late 2007 and into 2008, and I expect that will help give some support to the housing market."

I propose a small start: let's shame the killer. Really really shame them. Killed themselves, let dogs and cats defecate on the corpse. Leave it out to rot. Do everything possible to de-glamourize the taking of another's life.

I am sure there will be far more shootings when foreclosure rate shoots up.

I still remember one case back in 2001, a laid-off postman went into his office and shot 6 colleagues. Mark my words, there will be many shootings to come by disgruntled FBs who are losing their home, their jobs and ultimately their mind.

There is a glimmer of a hope that we might be able to escape South Marin. My wife and I are talking about looking at Menlo again.

Randy H,

Cool. Welcome back to the Peninsula (maybe). Goodbye insanest-of-the-insane Bay Area home prices, hello almost-insanest-of-the-insanest Bay Area home prices!

I love how RE shills can say "Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels! Buy while it's this good!" and ten minutes later say "The Feds are obviously going to lower rates to support the housing industry."

"Goodbye insanest-of-the-insane Bay Area home prices, hello almost-insanest-of-the-insanest Bay Area home prices!"

LOL, I needed that.

Randy,

Good luck! I like the pennisula, but man, finding homes here is like pulling teeth... pulling shark teeth out of your intestines, that is.

Hopefully it'll be getting better. :)

OO,

This WSJ article would support the thesis (excerpts only):

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117650906019369740-search.html?KEYWORDS=real+estate&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month

MarketWatch / Weekend Investor
Even the Seemingly Well-Off
Caught Easy-Borrowing Virus

If CPAs and insurance agents are among the first to spot the problems while they are occurring, divorce attorneys like Bruce Hughes, also of Orange County, are among the first to see the actual fallout. "We see it as it happens," he says. "From industry to industry over the years, they come in groups when various industries go through turmoil. Now it's real estate's turn. I can't tell you how many mortgage brokers, builders, developers and others associated with the building industry have come in for a divorce in the past six months -- and it's increasing." Those not associated with real estate, but hurt by the false sense of financial security because of it, are no doubt next.

First divorce, then crimes...

I propose a small start: let’s shame the killer.

Yep. The killer should be disinterred and posthumously executed.

Add to this volatile mix 100K+ brutalized vets from Iraq and Afganistan, many of them maimed, many more divorced and in dire economic straits, all trained to use guns.

Australia keep sounding better and better.

There is a glimmer of a hope that we might be able to escape South Marin. My wife and I are talking about looking at Menlo again.

If you do, we will have sushi. My all-time favorite Japanese restaurant is in Menlo Park.

I am sure there will be far more shootings when foreclosure rate shoots up.

Should a get a Level II vest? Or do I need one rated at Level IIIA?

On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.

The Fortress still stands. How much longer though?

I posted this earlier, but it never came out of moderation. Too spammy, I guess.

Anyway, trying again. A newsletter I read and have referenced here before just added a "foreclosures" link. Is this a sign of the times, or what?

http://propertyshark.com/mason/text/servicedetail/sfnewsletter.html

What if they go for your head?

I like Menlo Park as well. My wife is trying to convince me that we need to move out of The City and into a better school district and most tech jobs are on The Peninsula, so it makes sense to move in that direction, rather than East Bay, which we both prefer.

Menlo Park has a nice mellow vibe as well as good (but not great) schools. It is also quite a bit cheaper than Palo Alto, probably for that reason. I have heard that Menlo-Atherton was a bad school, but that was from some people who are from Palo Alto. It seems fine to me.

But we agreed to hold off for a while and see where the housing market goes. I assume you are not buying anytime soon, right Randy?

All I have to say is, if you are in a position to fire or lay off someone, be extra careful, you may be laying the last straw on the camel's back.

In 2001, a friend of mine who had to lay off one long-time employee got death threat mailed to his home address. The police got involved and didn't find plausible links between the ex-employee and the death threat notice, but my friend was convinced of its originator. Luckily nothing happened.

In 2002, a laid-off mid-level manager of a pharma startup in South Bay went to the ex-VP's home and shot him dead before taking his own life.

I have heard that Menlo-Atherton was a bad school, but that was from some people who are from Palo Alto. It seems fine to me.

I heard that it was bad too, because it has people from EPA.

What if they go for your head?

Most people are not that good and they usually go for the center mass.

In 2002, a laid-off mid-level manager of a pharma startup in South Bay went to the ex-VP’s home and shot him dead before taking his own life.

People are taking their jobs way too seriously.

All I have to say is, if you are in a position to fire or lay off someone, be extra careful, you may be laying the last straw on the camel’s back.

The same goes for criticizing a person who needed a Second chance in his Life. :)

People are taking their jobs way too seriously.

Sometimes it's the one who's laying people off that takes the job too seriously. After the dot.com bust, our company had a massive lay-off, at the all hands meeting after, the directior said at least 3 or 4 times that we were lucky to still have jobs and that we need to stay focus. It seems highly inappropriate but he was on a power trip.

OO Says:

All I have to say is, if you are in a position to fire or lay off someone, be extra careful, you may be laying the last straw on the camel’s back.

better talk to randy h. about that. he's an advocate of the 'cash nexus' approach to labour and firing people on a whim without explanation or follow-up supports... such is the nature of the 'civilised' capitalist society we have constructed...

Peter P says:
Guns don’t kill. People do. We should have an informant network for neighbors to report dangerous psychopaths and those who evade taxes.

hmmm. but isn't that the very level of STASI-like control that you are trying to fight with your gun ownership? to one day turn it against a police state or oppressive govt? (according to any retrospectively constructed ahistorical reading of convenience of the 2nd amendment.) besides which, how do you know who a dangerous psycho is? and i thought libertarians opposed 'high' taxation (not that the US is very high) and the existence of govt and govt interference generally...

(postmodernism v. sophistry, who'll win?)

2) ‘Cool off’ periods.

hmm, so you get your cool-off period, and a year later go psycho after another relationship bust-up or recurring psychotic episode ...

3) You get a felony, you don’t get to own guns. Hell, you don’t get trusted to vote, so why should you be trusted to pack heat?

in some states you do get trusted to vote after a felony, as you are considered to have repaid your debt to society with your original sentence. it's more a convenient mechanism to increasingly strike people off the voting registers who are likely to vote against conservative, Republican candidates...

well, experiential logic and comparison vs sophistry, at least...

Don't stop there. We should also inform on vegetarians.

I narrowly avoided invoking Godwin's law by referencing the STASI, which is possibly more appropriate anyhow:

By the time East Germany collapsed in 1989, it was estimated that 91,000 full-time employees and 300,000 informants were employed by the Stasi. In other words, about one in fifty East Germans collaborated with the Stasi—one of the highest penetrations of any civilian society by an intelligence-gathering organization. During the Peaceful Revolution of 1989, Stasi offices became overrun by enraged citizens but not before a large amount of confidential material was first destroyed by Stasi officers. The remaining files were later made available for review to those who were targets of Stasi surveillance; many of the reports revealed that the individual's friends, colleagues, spouses, and relatives had regularly filed reports with the organization.

there's a reason the English vegetarian restaurant chain is called 'Cranks', you know... only red-blooded sushi eaters should be permitted to breed in the new society...

Of course. We should also legalize bear baiting and cock fights, just to extra-stick it to the animals. You know they would kill humans if they could...

. After the dot.com bust, our company had a massive lay-off, at the all hands meeting after, the directior said at least 3 or 4 times that we were lucky to still have jobs and that we need to stay focus.

Of course, most managers are minions who lack focus themselves. What is so unlucky about getting laid-off? It is just a new start. Many people can use a new start.

There are only a few people in the world that actually matter (Bill Gates is probably one). The rest are just thinking too highly of their purposes.

omg the killer was/is an asian --- breaking news

There was a time when the govt would offer returned servicemen extremely affordable housing in new suburbs and so on post-WWII. Unfortunately, the beneficiaries of that housing are now selling them for $850K with no new affordable housing being constructed for anyone...

Don’t stop there. We should also inform on vegetarians.

I love vegetarians like everybody else.

Are you a Manchurian agent sent by the Communist party?

That movie is my all-time favorite. :)

Communism is as dead as the piece of fish on my sushi rice.

Korean, to be exact. American Korean from the Bay Area, the rumor says, Jay Kim.

Huh, I heard that for a couple hours, Asian guy in his mid 20s. There might be two shooters though, the reporting is really unclear on that point.