patrick.net

DS says:

"There was a time when the govt would offer returned servicemen extremely affordable housing in new suburbs and so on post-WWII. Unfortunately, the beneficiaries of that housing are now selling them for $850K with no new affordable housing being constructed for anyone… "

Are you talking about OZ? Or are you refering to the US Gov GI Bill? Where was it that the US Gov had homes in the suburbs to offer to returning WWII servicemen? Also, most of the homes bought through the GI BIll in the late 40's were small 2 bed 1 bath types. Only in a few select areas would something like that go for $850k. Virtually everywhere outside of such areas, $850k will buy a very upperclass home.

Sevicemen today still get VA housing benefits, in the form of VA backing of zero down loans. Even before the bubble, this drove up home prices in the vicinity of military installations (except altready high markets like CA). Even so, when Castle AFB (Merced/Atwater) closed down in the 90's, I knew quite a few Air Force fellows who made good money selling there VA financed homes to the then climbing market.

By the way, you will not be able to build "affordable" homes as long as you have short term thinking people with easy credit. Dry up the credit and plenty of existing homes will fall into the affordable category for people who will save for a down payment.

Headset,

Thanks for sharing that. DS is probably referring to Levittown, PA sprouting up out of nowhere in post WWII. Back then there was ample reason for the VA Loan (as there are today).

The mistake we made was when we started to give everyone and their long lost brother a zip down loan. Spread out coast to coast vets don't make up enough to drive a market.

Housing starts and permits numbers out for March:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/17/news/economy/housingstarts/index.htm?postversion=2007041710

Home building ticked up unexpectedly in March but economists cautioned that a look inside the numbers shows the worst is far from over for the battered housing sector.

The exception to that trend was the Midwest, where starts jumped 44 percent in the Midwest after a February reading that was the slowest in 16 years. Bad weather in the region in February and relatively good weather in March probably played a role in the jump, as builders tried to catch up with delayed projects.

Clearly, outside of the Midwest, the numbers are still falling.

I recall that many economists (Roubini, for instance) see housing starts and permits as the true leading indicator of the housing market. The true bottom of the free-fall is reached when housing starts start consistently increasing again.

The British pound is over $2USD today.

I weep.

@eburbed,

Yeah I did see that. My wife had to help her mom process her tourist visa and the exchange rate in the P.I was 48.30 to the dollar and dropping. Damn! Can't even lay low in these banana republics without taking a beating!

Absolutely NOTHING that I posted should be construed as my support for any of the strawman arguments and/or “bottom lines” and/or “conclusions” that theotherside is trying to arrive at.

This should be the disclaimer for ANYONE's post here re: theotherside's "conclusions," "bottom lines" or "arguments."

(Not TOS-supporting advice)

DinOr,

Levittown was an example of how the GI Bill turned what was planned as a community of rentals homes into an ownership town. The builder was only happy to sell homes rather than rent them out.

Yes the military did have a reason (constant moves) for the VA housing assistance. Unfortunatley, the same dynamics come into play as the easy credit bubble. People who are only in an area for a short term should rent instead of buy. Over the years, I have seen many military folk who when the transfer came, had to take a checkbook to the closing table, leave a wife behind to sell, pay a mortagage on an empty house while renting at their new assignment, etc. Yet I keep hearing the phrase "No equity when you rent", even from guys and gals who had been burned by home debtorship.

Dear Surfer-X:

Thank you for contacting me about subprime mortgages, which are loans that are marketed to borrowers with weak or imperfect credit. I appreciate hearing from you.

In order to purchase a home during the recent housing boom, millions of Americans turned to lenders offering alternative mortgage products such as interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages. Lured by low interest rates and easy access to credit from predatory subprime lenders, millions of Americans purchased homes they cannot afford.

Though subprime loans have initial monthly payments lower than standard mortgage loans, the payments are structured to increase either suddenly or slowly over time. As a result of recent interest rate hikes coupled with abusive loan terms, payments often grow beyond what borrowers can afford to pay, forcing many families into delinquency or even foreclosure.

The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs is currently holding hearings on this matter in an effort to gain more information about unscrupulous lending practices and the current crash of the subprime mortgage market.

Please know that I am monitoring this situation closely and will

keep your views in mind should pertinent legislation come before the Senate.

Again thank you for writing to me.

Barbara Boxer
United States Senator

Hey surfer-x,

I got the identical form-letter email response from Boxer's office. I was going to post it too, but you beat me to it.

The first three paragraphs say nothing other than a glib rehashing of the established facts. The rest is useless as well. I'm glad to see our Senator is on top of it....

TOS Says:

Conclusion:
I mean, do you really believe that finding a “free lunch” is that *easy* and *riskless* ?

Hey, isn't that EXACTLY what millions and millions of FB's thought when they signed up for their mortgages? "Hey, free lunch here! It's easy and riskless." SIGN ME UP!

skibum,

Sorry to bore you, but some of us have been at this a little longer than others, and frankly, only discussing housing can get a bit boring too. Btw, we've never been about religiously "staying on topic". Ben's blog is much better at that. ;-)

there’s only one particular group of recent arrivals who have proven to be a problem with handguns, and that is in sydney in particular. hence i’m leaving sydney. these particular people have very little of worth to offer our culture in other ways either.

DS,

And who would that group be? (braces for answer...)

@X,

Too funny! Was that on her web-site?

Speaking of asking prices, you can find stuff in Mountain View in the 800s, and things in Palo Alto in the 900s. And on the right side of the 101! (But not the right side of El Camino, apparantly.

I was talking to the Realtor my wife and I have been looking at homes with as we cruised through some of these MV homes. Many were pretty nice, with decent schools, and fairly decent remodelling. They weren't fixer-upper dives.

I remarked on how many more homes fell into our price range search in MV and PA these days. She said "I know! A year ago these would be offered at around a million, and I wouldn't have expected to see them on the market at these prices!"

Then I said "I wonder how long until cupertino (she mainly works saratoga/cup) starts falling consistantly" and she immediately jumped in saying that properties were still selling with multiple offers there, and the prices wouldn't drop. The schools are just too good!

Oiy.

@Surfer-X & skibum,

I haven't received my boilerplate responses yet, but it's only been a couple weeks since I sent my letters. I'm looking forward to seeing if they exactly match yours.

Speaking of asking prices, you can find stuff in Mountain View in the 800s, and things in Palo Alto in the 900s. And on the right side of the 101! (But not the right side of El Camino, apparantly.

I don't think there's stuff to buy on the "Wrong side" of 101 in Mountain View.

That said, stuff between ElCam and 101 were always in the 800's in Mountain View. Not much of a drop from what I've seen. :(

Headset,

Good points. I never really considered using my VA loan while I was still on active duty. Especially in the NAV where transfers were more frequent and unpredictable. I "almost" bought an apartment conversion right before the last bubble in Imperial Beach, CA in like 1988. That was a good time to "just say no" as well!

Sorry to bore you, but some of us have been at this a little longer than others, and frankly, only discussing housing can get a bit boring too. Btw, we’ve never been about religiously “staying on topic”.

HARM,

I'm well aware of that - in fact, I myself am guilty of straying OT sometimes. I'm just voicing my opinion about this particular OT-topic...

I've been posting here for well over a year now - maybe I'm too one-track minded and boring. I need to get out more...

Very true. We humans miscalculate risk.

Astrid, humans do miscalculate risk. However, a bigger problem is that we do not react rationally to information regarding risks.

skibum,

Well, we could discuss healthcare once in a while (your area of expertise). DinOR had a good question a few posts back:

I fully intended to create an HSA (health savings acct.) but couldn’t seem to find a decent HDHP, the time or the GUMPTION to follow through? I was curious to see what challenges (or excuses) others might have encountered.

I sometimes wonder whether some of your comments are deliberately designed to ignite debate.

Debates are good. I sense that people are getting bored at month after month or marginally rising inventory and falling prices. This is a wreck in slow motion and someone has misplaced the remote. We need to keep ourselves intellectually stimuated. Or we are no better than those equity-challenged home-debtor zombies.

I’m well aware of that - in fact, I myself am guilty of straying OT sometimes. I’m just voicing my opinion about this particular OT-topic…

It is fine, skibum, if we keep on topic all the time we will only be getting 35 comments in two days.

For those that don't know it, "HDHP" stands for "High Deductible Health Plans", used with Health Savings Accounts (HSA), which allows the self-employed to set aside a tax-free savings account for medical insurance/expenses. Details here: http://www.opm.gov/hsa/

DinOR,

Have you looked into Keogh plans? They're not that hard to setup, and have higher contribution limits ($45k, iirc).

DinOR,

I've never enrolled in a HDHP program, but I've had a HSA before (to cover expenses not covered by HMO/insurance). The problem with these things is, you better have a very good idea: (a) what's covered and what's not, and (b) what you're liable to spend in a year. Because, if you overcontribute to the HSA, you don't get your money back.

I like the idea of HDHP, but Sean will probably say that that is regressive against poor people. What is the best way to provide reasonable health care to as many people as possible?

It is fine, skibum, if we keep on topic all the time we will only be getting 35 comments in two days.

Well, we can always talk about food, or more specifically, sushi.

Well, we can always talk about food, or more specifically, sushi.

I agree.

Peter P (or anyone),

Have you been to Town Hall (in SF)? Any opinions?

No. :( Is it good?

We go to SF less than once every two weeks.

I like the idea of HDHP, but Sean will probably say that that is regressive against poor people. What is the best way to provide reasonable health care to as many people as possible?

He will then go on some diatribe about how evil and money-grubbing US doctors are.

I haven't been there, but will probably be going next week.

To be fair, I like DS. At least he is respectful and respectable. It is fine to have different opinions.

House around the corner (in Willow Glen) went up for sale 30 days ago: $1.3 mil. They just added the "price reduced" sign. ANother house around the corner was up for sale three months ago. Had a sale pending sign a month ago. It had a "SOLD" a couple of weerks ago and now the "SOLD" sign gone. The house is still up for sale. hmmm cold feet buyers....didn't qualify?....wonder what the story was. It's definitely slowing down.

I agree - I like him fine. He does keep things interesting. It is true that I agree with his opinion almost none of the time, though!

El HARM-O

Nope, sent directly to me, I think Sen Boxer typed it herself. aahahahahahahaha

HARM,

The Aetna calculator link was really quite helpful. I wonder why my State Farm guy never mentioned having a calc. Even w/modest contributions and an inv. return capped at 5% I would have about 50K in the account and over 12k in tax savings. (I only ran contributions to age 62). Very interesting. Something I'll work with and get right this year.

The tough part is that I'm still covered under the wife's plan so I would have to get a physical (on their tab) and once given a clean bill of health, take the plunge!

skibum Says:

> Peter P (or anyone),
> Have you been to Town Hall (in SF)? Any opinions?

It has been consistently better than average for years and is a fun place to go with a group if you get the big high “party table” by the front door ...

I was just there a couple weeks ago (two of us at a 4 top) on a Sunday night and the place was not as loud as usual since we got there late and the crowd thinned out...

"That said, stuff between ElCam and 101 were always in the 800’s in Mountain View. Not much of a drop from what I’ve seen"

If so funny what some new upstarts are saying.
ALWAYS !!! Always seems to be very short term when you been here
since the 70s. Its amazing what some people from out of state
have stuffed into their little mind. As I recall it was more or less around
$150-160K 10 years ago. You see i had a habit of looking up RE prices
back in the 80s and 90s from the grocery rag bin and do recall prices
in many areas.

Maybe the question some should be asking ... Is 800K really gonna stick?
And we all know what the answer is to that. Its real value will go down reall deep and hard.

eburbed Says:

> The British pound is over $2USD today.
> I weep.

Looks like the price of Land Rover parts will be going up...