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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,900 views  444 comments

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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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103   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:25am  

Perhaps our government is so compassionate that all large groups of "victims" can count on being bailed out.

104   simcha   2007 Apr 19, 7:25am  

First time poster, long-time lurker here.

OK, I am a psychotherapist intern working with 18-25 year-old homeless youth in the East Bay. I work for a non-profit. I don't see any problem with holding onto my job and sadly, I see growth in this industry. 18-25 year-olds who are just starting out in life here in the BA CANNOT pay for even the basic expenses at entry-level jobs. Also, even a rich area like the BA needs burger-flippers, janitorial services, manual laborers, etc. and these people certainly can't afford the cost of living here. These 18-25 year-olds end up homeless and if they're lucky they end up in our transitional housing program so that they can save up for the down payment on an apartment and furniture...

We have a vast underclass of 18-25 year-olds growing up in the BA who cannot afford to live on their own even when they are gainfully employed. Even the smart, talented, and educated ones aren't able to make it because housing is so ridiculously out of reach for someone entering the workforce. As a region, the BA fails its young people. The brain drain isn't just the older more experienced workers leaving the area, it's the young people who need to live elsewhere, where they can afford the basics on an entry-level wages/salary. So when you look at the future of the BA, where are we going to get new consumers to buy goods, services, and homes if we're pricing the youth out of the region? Is the BA going to become a wealthy retirement community full of the well-to-do sell-out Baby Boomers?

OK, off soap box for now.

Someone asked about changing careers. That's a huge question.

I'll just say that I've had 5 careers since I graduated with a BS in Finance with a minor in French. First, I was a seminarian, studying for the priesthood. Then I was an International Market Analyst working in Chicago and Paris. Then I was an Assistant Manager for Walgreens. Next, I was a web designer/developer.

Then I moved to the BA to go to school to get a graduate degree in counseling psychology in 2002. I was 32 then. I came here for a specific kind of education that wasn't really offered anywhere else. Now I'm saddled with massive student loans and consumer debt that I racked up paying for things like rent, gas, heat, electricity, phone service, food, healthcare, and transportation. I don't have many luxuries at all. When I was going to school, I lived off of student loans (and other debt as stated) and I made $12.00 an hour as a counselor working with severely disturbed students (children) and homeless youth (adolescents). Yes, I had experience and yes, that is what you get paid to do very difficult work in this field.

Social services is not a priority here in the BA as one would think. Very little money comes our way from government or donations. So, salaries and wages are excruciatingly low even though we need people to fill positions. I work for a very large East Bay Based Agency where we hve many openings. Many qualified people who serve those who need (whose ranks are growing daily due to the souring of the economy) go elsewhere where one can live off of a meager social services salary. So, while many people come to go to school here and get trained, not so many stay to work here or live here.

Don't get me wrong. I do what I do out of love and because this is what I was originally meant to do. I've found myself career-wise. It's just that with a graduate degree and all the training and interning I do I should have some sort of just compensation from the society that uses my services. Society should plan for a social wellfare net that most people will need at some point in our lives. And we should set mental health as a priority in this country. Need I explain the economic impact that poor mental health costs this country every year? (Remember, I started out as a corporate lacky with a Finance degree, so I can walk both sides of the fence here)

Anyway, thanks to all of you for several months of great reading...

105   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 7:26am  

"GOOG would be way ahead … YHOO will be destroyed …"

Both will suffer! There just wont be dollars pouring into advertising.
Thats the nature of slow downs. The only thing people will buy is
Toilet Paper and Tooth paste....and Ramen! Discretionary spending!
Google That!

106   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:28am  

OK, I am a psychotherapist intern working with 18-25 year-old homeless youth in the East Bay. I work for a non-profit.

I admire non-profit workers. Kudos to you.

107   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:32am  

I do what I do out of love and because this is what I was originally meant to do. I’ve found myself career-wise.

Congrats! I still have no clue what I want to do.

108   e   2007 Apr 19, 7:36am  

We have a vast underclass of 18-25 year-olds growing up in the BA who cannot afford to live on their own even when they are gainfully employed.

Rent isn't that expensive - especially in the East Bay. Right?

109   e   2007 Apr 19, 7:36am  

Anyone see Google's earnings? Holy cow.

110   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:36am  

Startups are sans-profits, not non-profits. :)

111   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 7:40am  

Simcha,

I recommend seeking employment outside the PDRK. I cannot say whether or not the psychiatric profession pays any better elsewhere, but with your (mostly accurate) grasp of the situation, it's not likely you will ever be happy here. The PDRK has engineered a bifurcated society/economy that primarily incentivizes/rewards two classes of people: (1) wealthy, entitled Boomers/Silent Gens, and (2) unskilled, dirt-cheap illegals.

Do you belong to either of those two groups?

112   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 7:43am  

Simcha

You have my deepest respect. We should be entirely disgusted with ourselves as a society that we have utterly failed so many of our own children.

113   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:44am  

I think 18-25 homeless youths are pretty much expected to bum money off their rich boomer parents.

114   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:46am  

We should be entirely disgusted with ourselves as a society that we have utterly failed so many of our own children.

What should we do?

115   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 7:49am  

Peter P

I'm honest enough to admit that I don't have the answer to that. We've discussed all kinds of stuff here over the years, but I've found none of it to be at all practical, likely, or sometimes even tolerable.

116   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 7:55am  

My dream is to start a non-profit that tackle our society's problems.

117   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:00am  

"Do you belong to either of those two groups?"

You can't ask that question too early in life!

The BA and CA in general may be extreme examples but I think we could find other areas where this is an issue as well. When I got out of HS wages and the econ. in general sucked, but there was a big difference. If you showed up on time (usually) and got your SS# correct on your application you were already considered for promotion. Benefits were a given and advancement was simply a matter of "toughing it out". We're failing these kids in ways and with consequences we can't even imagine.

118   simcha   2007 Apr 19, 8:01am  

"Rent isn’t that expensive - especially in the East Bay. Right?"

If you are earning 20k-35k per year, yes rent is VERY expensive. I think some people forget that not everyone starts out at 70k per year from college.

As an example, there is someone here working in an office job (post university BS degree) making 32K per year. Thats:

$2666.67 per month gross
X .70 (an average of what you keep after witholding on your paycheck this includes health insurance premiums at work, social security, disability, medicare, fed income tax, and CA state income tax)

You are left with $1866.67 net (take home)

I would say that your average rent on a studio here in the East Bay is roughly $700-$875 per month. I help my homeless youth find apartments regularly here (Oakland-Berkeley-San Leandro) and usually the low end of $700 is in some very bad neighborhoods.

So, here is a sample budget with a car for a typical 20 year-old:

1866.67 (take home pay)

MINUS EXPENSES:
750.00 (Rent)
35.00 (Phone)
40.00 (PG&E)
175.00 (Groceries Based on $40 per week (52weeks*40=2080/12=173.33))
300.00 (Car payment (Just your average car payment))
200.00 (Car insurance (Remember this is someone under 25 years old in the BA))
60.00 (Clothing)
---------------------
1560.00 (total expenses)

So that leaves only about $300 left for other incidentals like medication, expenses not covered by healthcare plan, hair cuts, entertainment, and a typical student loan payment of around $200 on up!

Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive... That same studio apartment, where I come from in the Midwest where there are jobs actually, would be around $450. And, the car insurance would be around $80-$85 a month.

It's easy to see why those with entry-level jobs with university degrees in something other than law, technology, engineering, etc. either end up with major debt or simply leave the area.

119   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:11am  

Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive… That same studio apartment, where I come from in the Midwest where there are jobs actually, would be around $450. And, the car insurance would be around $80-$85 a month.

Very good point.

One of the things that really cracks me up are Bay Area lifers who say: Well except for housing, the cost of living here isn't so bad

Uh, hello. The aside from housing, the cost of living here is almost the same as NYC. And it's not NYC here. That's broken.

But then again, most Bay Area lifers have never been outside the Bay Area I guess.

120   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:13am  

You have my deepest respect. We should be entirely disgusted with ourselves as a society that we have utterly failed so many of our own children.

What happened to the libertarian thinking that so pervades this site?

...there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families.
-Margaret Thatcher

121   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:14am  

Uh, hello. The aside from housing, the cost of living here is almost the same as NYC.

I would say high-end food costs quite a bit more in NYC.

122   LowlySmartRenter   2007 Apr 19, 8:15am  

I thought eburbed was kidding about the rent, weren't you? Anyway, yeah rents here are much higher than just about anywhere I've ever lived or visited in the US. A couple of exceptions: Manhattan and Honolulu, both of which also have a severe homelessness problem.

123   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:15am  

I’m 48. Guess what? I’m STILL paying for car insurance! Uh it doesn’t go away. Why couldn’t we at least give young people the option to get more affordable insurance up front and then less of a break when they hit 25 and/or get married?

Our suburban way of living cracks me up. It really does a great job of keeping poor people poor. Gas, insurance, new tires occasionally - we do a great job of keeping the bar for having a job high.

This will be even more humorous as gas prices soar to $6 a gallon in the near future.

124   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 8:17am  

@eburbed,

It's easy to see where Bubblized (in more ways than one) Bay Aryans might get this mentality from. We have a government that keeps telling us, "Well except for house prices, food, energy and medicine, inflation isn't so bad".

125   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:17am  

What happened to the libertarian thinking that so pervades this site?

Too bad this state is far from libertarian. We maintain that a freer economy would have solved many problems.

126   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:21am  

eburbed,

Gas won't even have to flirt w/$6 a gal. to see major stress cracks. Min./lower wage folks can live w/higher gas prices for awhile but anything more than a few months and they'll have to throw some ballast over the side to remain aloft. Question is, what do you do when you've nothing left to jettison?

127   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:21am  

A couple of exceptions: Manhattan and Honolulu, both of which also have a severe homelessness problem.

I do not get Honolulu. It is so hot why would people want to live there?

128   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:23am  

HARM,

As much as it pains me to say it, "Slightly Richer Than Your Dad" said that several months back. Not that it was an original thought by any means but now in his 50's... he's finally figured it out! :)

129   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:28am  

Gas won’t even have to flirt w/$6 a gal. to see major stress cracks. Min./lower wage folks can live w/higher gas prices for awhile but anything more than a few months and they’ll have to throw some ballast over the side to remain aloft. Question is, what do you do when you’ve nothing left to jettison?

I see gas riots in our future. I seem to recall a spite of gas station related crimes and booming pawnshop business in Texas when gas prices first started rocketing up in 2005.

130   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:30am  

The problem exists because many people are not doing enough to ensure the success of their kids. They do not spend enough time on them and they did not spend enough money on their education.

131   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 8:32am  

eburbed,

I don't know if you were being facetious or not, but that represents a rather extreme, narrow (and inaccurate) view of libertarianism. Please refer to the following relevant past threads:

How does one regulate “well” ?
The Libertarianism-Morality Conundrum
The limits of “Caveat Emptor”

132   LowlySmartRenter   2007 Apr 19, 8:33am  

Honolulu is not too hot for me, until the trade winds stop, and then it's as miserable as Valdosta in August.

The numbers of people living in parks on Oahu just astounded me. I had no idea. I had always had an idealized view of the lovely natives living care free in the coconut fields ... instead it was more like downtown Long Beach, with people literally sleeping on the courthouse steps. Tragic.

133   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:33am  

I see gas riots in our future. I seem to recall a spite of gas station related crimes and booming pawnshop business in Texas when gas prices first started rocketing up in 2005.

We need to be very vocal about this: NO PRICE CONTROL.

If gas needs to be $16/gal so be it. Interfering with the market will do no good.

134   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:35am  

@eburbed,

Is that right? Wow, and gas is usually cheapest there. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing more pawnshops but remember for every "great deal" there's a long sad story behind it. :(

Isn't that Vonnegut said about the internet?

It accomplished what the mob could never do. (Put a pawnshop and bookie joint in every home in America!)

135   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:37am  

The problem exists because many people are not doing enough to ensure the success of their kids. They do not spend enough time on them and they did not spend enough money on their education.

Isn't that like saying: If poor people weren't poor, then they wouldn't be poor.

136   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:39am  

LowlySmartRenter,

I think all mainlanders have the same idyllic fantasy about what HI is going to be like (until they get there). Funny you would mention that, I was stationed on a ship in LB and our first stop was Pearl. Got off the boat and damned if it didn't look just like LB?

137   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:40am  

Is that right? Wow, and gas is usually cheapest there. Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing more pawnshops but remember for every “great deal” there’s a long sad story behind it

Gas is cheaper, but people there drive a lot more. Some of the commutes the people in Houston have are simply shocking.

http://cbs11tv.com/local/local_story_110231803.html

High gasoline prices are causing some people to take desperate measures.

Pawn shops say their business is increasing, with some customers saying they're selling things to buy gas.

Gas prices are climbing again, with most stations prices hovering at, or just below $3.00 a gallon. For some people the high fuel prices are overwhelming.

"Some of the construction people tell us they are having to pawn their tools to buy gas, but when they pawn their tools they can't go out and work in the construction business ‘cause their tools are in pawn. So it kind of a catch-22,” Costner said.

[snip]

“We've always had a clientele of the young kids, or middle age kids, and now we’re getting an older generation. Which, it just seems wrong that they have to pawn things just to get gas, or ya know, to make ends meet on things like that."

138   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:41am  

Isn’t that like saying: If poor people weren’t poor, then they wouldn’t be poor.

No. But if one cannot reasonably ensure the relative success of his children, why have them at all?

139   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 8:42am  

HARM

The term lIbErTaRiAn has become so perverted by internet extremists (who are often just self-serving reactionaries right wingers that want to be allowed to smoke pot) that I don't even like to use it anymore.

140   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 8:44am  

Randy H,

I know this is a topic we've covered to some degree before, but please refresh my memory: in your mind what primarily distinguishes an "objectivist" from a libertarian? According to some sources, the objectivists are the hard-core Ayn Rand pro laissez-faire anti-regulation dogmatists, while according to other sources, this description applies more to the Libertarians.

141   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:49am  

eburbed,

That is whacked! You're right though, I'm sure they drive more than most of us.

Thanks to all who posted re: the BA job market. It's helpful to me in order to get a better understanding as to where the tech arena is at from an "in the trenches" perspective. Many thanks,

DinOR

142   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 8:50am  

Bork, they are moving people into position and gearing up the S-1 registration. Some people are being asked to leave. Buts thats all.

It was salesforce.com that bruised Siebel badly. I expect Netsuite to
give many other small- mid-tier ERP vendors an equal bruising..
Let me tell you buying salesforce at 11 was the best investment I made.
Im out now and happy as a canary. Before you invest make sure you read
the S-1 cover to cover and word for word -- several times over.

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