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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   37,911 views  444 comments

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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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129   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:28am  

Gas won’t even have to flirt w/$6 a gal. to see major stress cracks. Min./lower wage folks can live w/higher gas prices for awhile but anything more than a few months and they’ll have to throw some ballast over the side to remain aloft. Question is, what do you do when you’ve nothing left to jettison?

I see gas riots in our future. I seem to recall a spite of gas station related crimes and booming pawnshop business in Texas when gas prices first started rocketing up in 2005.

130   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:30am  

The problem exists because many people are not doing enough to ensure the success of their kids. They do not spend enough time on them and they did not spend enough money on their education.

131   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 8:32am  

eburbed,

I don't know if you were being facetious or not, but that represents a rather extreme, narrow (and inaccurate) view of libertarianism. Please refer to the following relevant past threads:

How does one regulate “well” ?
The Libertarianism-Morality Conundrum
The limits of “Caveat Emptor”

132   LowlySmartRenter   2007 Apr 19, 8:33am  

Honolulu is not too hot for me, until the trade winds stop, and then it's as miserable as Valdosta in August.

The numbers of people living in parks on Oahu just astounded me. I had no idea. I had always had an idealized view of the lovely natives living care free in the coconut fields ... instead it was more like downtown Long Beach, with people literally sleeping on the courthouse steps. Tragic.

133   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:33am  

I see gas riots in our future. I seem to recall a spite of gas station related crimes and booming pawnshop business in Texas when gas prices first started rocketing up in 2005.

We need to be very vocal about this: NO PRICE CONTROL.

If gas needs to be $16/gal so be it. Interfering with the market will do no good.

134   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:35am  

@eburbed,

Is that right? Wow, and gas is usually cheapest there. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing more pawnshops but remember for every "great deal" there's a long sad story behind it. :(

Isn't that Vonnegut said about the internet?

It accomplished what the mob could never do. (Put a pawnshop and bookie joint in every home in America!)

135   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:37am  

The problem exists because many people are not doing enough to ensure the success of their kids. They do not spend enough time on them and they did not spend enough money on their education.

Isn't that like saying: If poor people weren't poor, then they wouldn't be poor.

136   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:39am  

LowlySmartRenter,

I think all mainlanders have the same idyllic fantasy about what HI is going to be like (until they get there). Funny you would mention that, I was stationed on a ship in LB and our first stop was Pearl. Got off the boat and damned if it didn't look just like LB?

137   e   2007 Apr 19, 8:40am  

Is that right? Wow, and gas is usually cheapest there. Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing more pawnshops but remember for every “great deal” there’s a long sad story behind it

Gas is cheaper, but people there drive a lot more. Some of the commutes the people in Houston have are simply shocking.

http://cbs11tv.com/local/local_story_110231803.html

High gasoline prices are causing some people to take desperate measures.

Pawn shops say their business is increasing, with some customers saying they're selling things to buy gas.

Gas prices are climbing again, with most stations prices hovering at, or just below $3.00 a gallon. For some people the high fuel prices are overwhelming.

"Some of the construction people tell us they are having to pawn their tools to buy gas, but when they pawn their tools they can't go out and work in the construction business ‘cause their tools are in pawn. So it kind of a catch-22,” Costner said.

[snip]

“We've always had a clientele of the young kids, or middle age kids, and now we’re getting an older generation. Which, it just seems wrong that they have to pawn things just to get gas, or ya know, to make ends meet on things like that."

138   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:41am  

Isn’t that like saying: If poor people weren’t poor, then they wouldn’t be poor.

No. But if one cannot reasonably ensure the relative success of his children, why have them at all?

139   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 8:42am  

HARM

The term lIbErTaRiAn has become so perverted by internet extremists (who are often just self-serving reactionaries right wingers that want to be allowed to smoke pot) that I don't even like to use it anymore.

140   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 8:44am  

Randy H,

I know this is a topic we've covered to some degree before, but please refresh my memory: in your mind what primarily distinguishes an "objectivist" from a libertarian? According to some sources, the objectivists are the hard-core Ayn Rand pro laissez-faire anti-regulation dogmatists, while according to other sources, this description applies more to the Libertarians.

141   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:49am  

eburbed,

That is whacked! You're right though, I'm sure they drive more than most of us.

Thanks to all who posted re: the BA job market. It's helpful to me in order to get a better understanding as to where the tech arena is at from an "in the trenches" perspective. Many thanks,

DinOR

142   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 8:50am  

Bork, they are moving people into position and gearing up the S-1 registration. Some people are being asked to leave. Buts thats all.

It was salesforce.com that bruised Siebel badly. I expect Netsuite to
give many other small- mid-tier ERP vendors an equal bruising..
Let me tell you buying salesforce at 11 was the best investment I made.
Im out now and happy as a canary. Before you invest make sure you read
the S-1 cover to cover and word for word -- several times over.

143   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 8:55am  

HARM

There are a set of principles which guide Objectivism. Libertarianism is a loose collection of convenient interpretations of the market which serve the goals of those calling themselves Libertarians.

http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=faq_index#obj_q3

emphasis added

Does Objectivism support Libertarianism?
"For the record, I shall repeat what I have said many times before: I do not join or endorse any political group or movement. More specifically, I disapprove of, disagree with and have no connection with, the latest aberration of some conservatives, the so-called 'hippies of the right,' who attempt to snare the younger or more careless ones of my readers by claiming simultaneously to be followers of my philosophy and advocates of anarchism. Anyone offering such a combination confesses his inability to understand either. Anarchism is the most irrational, anti-intellectual notion ever spun by the concrete-bound, context-dropping, whim-worshiping fringe of the collectivist movement, where it properly belongs."
[Ayn Rand, "Brief Summary," The Objectivist, September 1971]

"Above all, do not join the wrong ideological groups or movements, in order to 'do something.' By 'ideological' (in this context), I mean groups or movements proclaiming some vaguely generalized, undefined (and, usually, contradictory) political goals. (E.g., the Conservative Party, which subordinates reason to faith, and substitutes theocracy for capitalism; or the 'libertarian' hippies, who subordinate reason to whims, and substitute anarchism for capitalism.) To join such groups means to reverse the philosophical hierarchy and to sell out fundamental principles for the sake of some superficial political action which is bound to fail. It means that you help the defeat of your ideas and the victory of your enemies."
[Ayn Rand, "What Can One Do?" Philosophy: Who Needs It]

144   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:58am  

The reality is that Libertarianism sells better than Objectivism. Similarly, freedom of choice sells better than individual responsibility

145   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 19, 9:04am  

Simcha Says:

> First time poster, long-time lurker here.

Glad we were able to get you to post…

> OK, I am a psychotherapist intern working with 18-25
> year-old homeless youth in the East Bay.
> I don’t see any problem with holding onto my job and
> sadly, I see growth in this industry.

My best friend’s sister works with 14-25 year-old kids (mostly girls) who have homes but have major problems (usually related to either rich controlling parents who freak when they are not perfect or rich hard working parents who are so busy with their careers that they would not even notice if the kid died)…

> 18-25 year-olds who are just starting out in life here in the
> BA CANNOT pay for even the basic expenses at entry-level
> jobs. Also, even a rich area like the BA needs burger-flippers,
> janitorial services, manual laborers, etc. and these people
> certainly can’t afford the cost of living here.

It is not much tougher to be an 18-25 year old kid today as is was when I was an 18-25 year old kid. As a college student I worked two jobs and shared a room to save on rent until I graduated. Kids today will laugh if you tell them to share a room (or get a second job)...

> These 18-25 year-olds end up homeless and if they’re lucky
> they end up in our transitional housing program so that they
> can save up for the down payment on an apartment and furniture…

I have never met a homeless person that was homeless due to money issues. It is usually a long list of problems that includes substance abuse and/or metal problems (friends or family will not let people sleep on the street unless they are scared of them)…

> We have a vast underclass of 18-25 year-olds growing up in the
> BA who cannot afford to live on their own even when they are
> gainfully employed. Even the smart, talented, and educated ones
> aren’t able to make it because housing is so ridiculously out of
> reach for someone entering the workforce.

It costs a lot to buy a place in the Bay Area, but renting is not that expensive if you have a job and are relatively presentable (so you don’t scare people when they are interviewing roommates)…

146   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:05am  

"Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive… "

Thats a mispercention over its history. Actuall products are as cheap as anyplace else. Its the services from others you have to stay away from.

Fact is many people did afford homes in the 1970s. My dad was a carpenter who made enough to pay for mortgage and then some.
The same is true with the mid 80s and mid 90's. You just got to learn
to stay away from the land sharks ( service industry ) that is the big wallet bitter.

There is too much hype in the Bay Area. Big difference is we didnt have what I call "Google Groupies" running around. If you believe its expensive then you will except the prices and overpay. Just say no!

"Anyone see Google’s earnings? Holy cow."

Reminds me of a few B2B companies of 1999 (Gone) and early days at Intel , Apple (had some bad days), Tandem (Gone) and Silicon Graphics (Semi-Gone), Sun (Life Support). Goog will have its day too.

147   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:08am  

"It costs a lot to buy a place in the Bay Area,"

At the present moment only... that will pass too.

"but renting is not that expensive if you have a job and are relatively presentable (so you don’t scare people when they are interviewing roommates)…"

Exactly, Its good to develop sound budget and savings plan not to mention patients. It builds confidence and security. Just avoid the Service Industry like (Strip Joints) ...

148   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:09am  

You got it Bork... Good luck

149   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:13am  

Thanks, Randy.

"Objectivism" seems to be a better description of the prevailing political philosophy of most regular contributors here, incl. me. Unfortunately, there is no "Objectivist Party" capable of mobilizing like-minded Americans disgusted with the corrupt two-party dualopoly, but also not willing to embrace socia1ism. The closest thing so far still seems to be the Libertarian Party, despite including a significant % of extreme right-wing narcissist/anarchists among the ranks.

150   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 9:16am  

HARM

An "Objectivist Party" is antithetical. There used to be (still may be) a close adherent in the Natural Law Party. It actually outpolled the Libertarian Party at it's peak (because they had a strong presidential candidate...have you ever really looked in the National Libertarian candidates? I wouldn't have these guys walk my dog usually).

151   e   2007 Apr 19, 9:17am  

it is not much tougher to be an 18-25 year old kid today as is was when I was an 18-25 year old kid. As a college student I worked two jobs and shared a room to save on rent until I graduated. Kids today will laugh if you tell them to share a room (or get a second job)…

Ironically I'd say the opposite. I think it definitely is a lot tougher to be younger today than in the past. Among other things, college fees/tuition has gone up almost as much as... well... housing.

The tuition at the school i went to went up 5-7% year over year after I graduated. I'm pretty sure that wasn't limited to my school.

Salaries have also definitely not kept up with real inflation (e.g. the inflation number that includes food and energy)

I have never met a homeless person that was homeless due to money issues. It is usually a long list of problems that includes substance abuse and/or metal problems (friends or family will not let people sleep on the street unless they are scared of them)…

I used to feel the same way, until I spent a day volunteering with the United Way. That's when I learned that there's two classes of Homeless people: Visible and Invisible.

Visible: the stinky psychotic people you see in Downtown Palo Alto, Santa Cruz, and Van Ness in SF. They're also chronically homeless. Apparently these represent only a small segment of homeless people. (The crazy male population.)

Invisible: Women and children. There's a lot of these but they're in shelters and otherwise taken care of. It also may be temporary - 2 months at a time, etc. Apparently, this is the vast majority.

What you see is the tip of the iceberg - and ironically the unhelp-able portion. What you don't see is the problem.

152   e   2007 Apr 19, 9:23am  

Thats a mispercention over its history. Actuall products are as cheap as anyplace else. Its the services from others you have to stay away from.

Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle.

Check out the study I did here:

http://www.burbed.com/2006/12/25/heres-your-christmas-gift-20-savings-on-groceries/

Why green beans, ginger, milk, and grape jelly are all 40% more expensive here than they are in Seattle boggles my mind.

153   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 9:24am  

Invisible: Women and children.

Where is the man?

154   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:25am  

El Jefe,

I hear what you're saying about the Bay Area "trustafarians", but I don't think those are specifically the kinds of people to whom Simcha was referring. I think he was saying is that, surviving on your own is extremely hard now even for young people who are willing to forgo 'luxuries' and live spartan lifestyles. And this reality jives with my own personal experience. Hell, I left CA 14 years ago and probably would have stayed gone if a family crisis hadn't forced me back. I'm actually fairly contented with where I am now (renting in a nice neighborhood), but am keeping my options open.

155   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:26am  

Why green beans, ginger, milk, and grape jelly are all 40% more expensive here than they are in Seattle boggles my mind.

Dude, "sunshine premium".

156   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 9:28am  

The cost of living difference in $ is enormous between the BA and other areas. It costs the better part of 50% more here than where much of my family lives in Ohio.

But the purchasing power parity is about the same. Therein lies the confusion.

Actually, people in rural Ohio are worse off, not better, because they have to buy things that are nationally priced on the margins -- meaning assuming our inflated dollars.

157   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 9:29am  

hmm, randy h. is converting me to objectivism by degrees...

interestingly, 'libertarianism' seems to be mostly an american phenomenon, the very small number of people i've encountered here who claim to espouse it (mainly from the net) seem to have just gotten an extremely unreflexive wash-over effect from the US.

while i agree with randy about the nuttiness of the extreme libertarian case as it is often presented, ironically *some* libertarian ideals have strongly influenced political discourse and political freedoms everywhere over the last couple of centuries (to our benefit), concerning our present-day understandings of one's 'freedom' to live without excessive state interference. for instance, you can no longer be shanghai'ed into the Navy against your will just by being found drinking in a pub in a coastal town...

158   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:30am  

"Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle"

My grocery bill is around 35-40 a week, with discount. Its all noise level for a single person. For families that may be different. Since you like the Green stuff. I suggest a trip to the farmers markets on weekends.

159   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:30am  

It costs the better part of 50% more here than where much of my family lives in Ohio. But the purchasing power parity is about the same.

Randy H,

You mean excluding housing, right?

160   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:31am  

"Dude, “sunshine premium”

Go to safeway and buy Grapes from Chile! Hum!!!!
WTF, in California, of all things.

161   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 9:32am  

Am I an objectivist, a libertarian, a sophist, or just a jerk?

162   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:33am  

hmm, randy h. is converting me to objectivism by degrees…

Hallelujah!! All hail Randy H!

163   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:33am  

Am I an objectivist, a libertarian, a sophist, or just a jerk?

Who says you have to choose? ;-)

164   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 9:40am  

the irony is that the rosy picture of idyllic life presented by the libertarians closely resembles the stated desired outcome of 'true' communism, of independent, autonomous small communities beholden to no-one, where the state has withered away, and people are no longer alienated by their work and power relations in a capitalist colossus from themselves, each other, the nature of their own work, and so on. somehow, some kind of freaky space-time curvature brings the 'far right' into contact with the 'far left'. this is also the anarchist-communist nexus. try telling the average hairy-chested libertarian they are working towards the communist ideal...

165   jtfrankl   2007 Apr 19, 9:43am  

I am a software engineer for a semiconductor capital equipment company. We are in a great market position, but cost cutting abounds. We seem to be laying off ppl in dribs and drabs- 4-5% last fall, a "small", unpublished number last week. Meanwhile, there is hiring in India and elsewhere is Asia. I feel fairly secure given my somewhat non-generic skillset, but at the same time, I am keeping my eyes open for opportunities. I would HATE to be in manufacturing here- feel bad for those people.

I thought it was interesting that BearCat mentioned Galil of all places. I worked there when it was in Mountain View. 1 mile commute- can't beat that. Good company, but I wasn't prepared to move to Rocklin. At the time, I felt like SV RE had a few more good years in it and boy was that an understatement!

166   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:45am  

somehow, some kind of freaky space-time curvature brings the ‘far right’ into contact with the ‘far left’. this is also the anarchist-communist nexus.

Many years ago, my dad told me, "if you go right far enough, you'll run into the far left." I was an adult before I fully understood what he meant.

167   e   2007 Apr 19, 9:46am  

“Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle”

My grocery bill is around 35-40 a week, with discount. Its all noise level for a single person. For families that may be different. Since you like the Green stuff. I suggest a trip to the farmers markets on weekends.

Actually I really like cookies. And the ones I like are 20% more here than the exact same cookies at Safeway Seattle.

I guess the cookies here are sunnier, smarter, and generally more special.

168   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 9:56am  

Marx on alienation. Admittedly, he was operating in a manufacturing society, which today, in terms of work opportunities and pay scales, most closely resembles, say, China producing goods for the West from 'globalisation' effects...

Under capitalism, workers are inevitably alienated from their own lives. That is, they do not feel part of their own lives. They are just 'going through the motions'.

Why does Marx say this? Under capitalism, a worker is constrained both physically and psychologically; he is alienated from both nature and himself (body and spirit), and from others. Under capitalism, we see the worker’s progressive intellectual and psychological “dis-integration.”

Marx notes at least five kinds of alienation:

- Alienation from nature (pollution, industrialisation, cities)
- Alienation from the body (harnessing)
- Alienation from fully human species-being (the worker has only an animal-type existence)
- Alienation from others (competition, no time to talk)
- Alienation from one’s own intellectual ability (repetitive work, constrained thought)

Maybe that's why all the people you talk to on the phone all day long sound pissed off...

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