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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,059 views  444 comments

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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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218   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:02am  

Whether one is "greedy" or not does not stem from one's political beliefs, but how generous one is with his own resources.

A "liberal" physician who takes a month off every year to travel at his own expense to work with Doctors Without Borders shows far more compasion that a "liberal" doctor uses does no charitiy and uses his extra resources to buy a Jaguar.

I have helped charities collect in my youth (never again), and I had noticed (yes, focus group of one) that the more leftist folks tended to give the least. It was as if being in favor of gov poverty programs absolved them of any personal efforts. They did there part by voting. It reminds me of Christians that feel that not believing in evolution absolves them from traditional charity and morality, and the Global Warming Enthusiast who sees no need to cut back on his pollution since he has done enough just by accepting global warming as fact.

In my opinion, personal action beats collectivism. If I help Habitat for Humanity, my resources go directly to the person in need, and are not skimmed off by layers of bureacracy. If want to help with "global warming" (pollution and wasting natural resources is a bad idea, global warming hoax aside) I can best do so by driving a fuel efficient car and bicycling or walking when I can. I can help the poor best by being productive and thrifty enough to not be one of them. I can stay in shape to reduce the load on the health care system.

Or one could drive his Escalade to the private field to pick up Al Gore in his chartered Gulfstream and do lines with him on the way to the Global Warming Rally. Do not forget to thank the politicians at that rally who supported increased dole for unwed moms, after all this helps the 3 children you fathered with 3 different women whom you do not contribute to. Thank those politicians to show you care about the kids.

219   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 12:17am  

Different Sean Says:

> As a 51-year-old Lotus programmer, Bob has
> become obsolete in today’s job market. He has
> interviewed for more than 300 positions without
> a prospect in sight.

I bet a buggy whip maker would have an even tougher time getting a job… It’s not like Lotus (as a spreadsheet) and Lotus (as an e-mail suite) blew up, both have been losing market share for over a decade.

I think Randy mentioned having a TRS80 in the 70’s and I also had a TRS80, but about sophomore year in HS I got an Apple II and upgraded to the hot new “Applesoft Basic”. I know how to use a TRS80 and took a lot of classes learning how to program in Applesoft Basic, but I don’t include the skills on my resume since I know that they are about as worthless as the ability to use or program Lotus products…

220   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:20am  

Headset,

Spoken like a true gentleman!

You won't hear me rattling on about global warming (but I work at home) walk to the post office for my daily mailing and I've put countless nieces and nephews through college out of pocket. We helped build a small visiting clinic in my wife's hometown back in the P.I but according to my friends I'm a conservative @$$hole.

221   Different Sean   2007 Apr 20, 12:21am  

HeadSet Says:
I have helped charities collect in my youth (never again), and I had noticed (yes, focus group of one) that the more leftist folks tended to give the least. It was as if being in favor of gov poverty programs absolved them of any personal efforts.

I have done the same, and so have friends, and they report that the affluent areas give the least, or not at all (i.e. close the door, or are behind gate intercoms), and the people living in poorer housing are 1) available, and 2) dig deep in their pockets and give up money that they can ill afford to give for good causes with good grace. So it just depends -- that's a focus group of 3.

222   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 12:23am  

HeadSet Says:

> I have helped charities collect in my youth (never
> again), and I had noticed (yes, focus group of one)
> that the more leftist folks tended to give the least.

I’m not one who usually jumps in to defend the left, but since “most” (way more than half) left leaning people are poor they typically have less to give…

223   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 12:29am  

Different Sean (who is always looking for a chance to bash the rich) Says:

> I have done the same, and so have friends, and
> they report that the affluent areas give the least,
> or not at all (i.e. close the door, or are behind gate
> intercoms), and the people living in poorer housing
> are 1) available, and 2) dig deep in their pockets
> and give up money that they can ill afford to give
> for good causes with good grace. So it just depends
>— that’s a focus group of 3.

A huge number of people that collect money door to door are scammers (it may be as high as half) so the rich tent to give directly to legitimate charities.

If you look at charitable giving by zip code the gifts to charity from wealthy/conservative zip codes is where charities get about 90% of their funding.

224   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:29am  

"I’m not one who usually jumps in to defend the left, but since “most” (way more than half) left leaning people are poor they typically have less to give… "

Nice! But the people I did solicit did have money, or at least earnings. Their money may have already been commited to payments on the Volvo or the kid's fox hunting lessons.

225   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:36am  

DinOr,

Greetings from a fellow Gentleman and Conservative A$$hole!

I too will be on the hook for at least one nephew's college. And I believe we will agree that it is worth it.

A clinic in PI? I shudder to think what you were treating!

226   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:43am  

"A huge number of people that collect money door to door are scammers (it may be as high as half) so the rich tent to give directly to legitimate charities."

How true. I said "never again' since I found out that United Way was giving the proceeds of my efforts to "charities" that had 90% overhead.

Same with Combined Federal Campaign.

227   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:45am  

Headset,

Oh GOD NO! This is a different world from "Mabini Street" in Manila and the bases have been closed for years. They cooridinated it with the local hospital so that visiting nurses could at least come out and check older folks blood pressure and raise awareness. Remember a lot of these people have never even taken an aspirin so even a modest effort was an improvement. The nurses see it as a "working vacation" and stay with my wife's family. Also a lot of these kids are born without a birth certificate and that can make it hard when they apply for jobs/college.

228   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 12:46am  

I never give money when a person is asking me for money. That includes my alma mater's annual fund raising efforts.

229   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:48am  

Headset,

There's actually been a shift in mindset amongst the wealthy. They're so tired of "leakage" many just volunteer directly at their church or whatever.

230   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:49am  

@SQT,

Hey SQT! :)

231   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:55am  

Astrid says

"I never give money when a person is asking me for money. That includes my alma mater’s annual fund raising efforts."

You alma mata may be using a service to do the calling. A service that takes serious juice from the proceeds.

232   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 1:03am  

Headset,

Actually, I know exactly how they do fundraising and I approve of the general methods (they hire current students at about $10/hr + commission if do really well), but I just can't stomach people hitting me up for money.

233   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 1:05am  

Plus, fundraising from young alums is mostly an alumni relationship thing, there's very little money in it. The serious money comes from rich old guys with third wives looking to put their name on buildings and chairs and people contemplating death.

234   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 1:29am  

"The serious money comes from rich old guys with third wives looking to put their name on buildings and chairs and people contemplating death."

I have read in our local paper how William and Mary (Thomas Jefferson's Alma Mata) recently recieved 2 large donations from widows. Both contributions were unexpected and from women who lived in a manner that people who knew them were suprised they had the millions.

235   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 1:59am  

SQT

:)

236   Jimbo   2007 Apr 20, 2:07am  

Simcha,

You can afford to live on that in East Bay, or actually much less. Here is how you do it: cut your mortgage cost to $500 by sharing a house with someone in a reasonably safe neighborhood near BART. Get rid of the car, you don't need it. Those two changes cut your costs in half.

How do I know this works? This is how I lived for many years after I first moved to the Bay Area. In fact, I know a bunch of people who still live like this now. Yeah, I know it kind of sucks to have to live like a college student well into your 30s but that is the only way most people can afford to live here.

237   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 20, 2:15am  

My family is pretty well off (I'm not) and gives serious bling to charity. My grandparents built a building for a small religious college and a library for a big secular college. They also gave to tradition charities. My parents give livestock to third world villiages every year. In our names. It's our christmas present. :)

Me, I usually give to police/fireman's widow and children's education funds.

238   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 2:26am  

There is age discrimination in the Valley. A lot of it is "natural" and related to tech and product cycles. Some of it is bias. Because of the dynamic nature of the local economy, usually age discrimination can be overcome by anyone willing to be motivated and creative -- meaning you might have to not do the exact same thing you were before becoming unemployed.

But one thing FAB misses is there is a definite drop in demand for tech individual contributor talent, like programmers, as you age. Specifically, somewhere around 40 it is exceedingly difficult to be credible as a new-paradigm/language programmer/engineer. There's little reason for this aside from stereotypes and perceptions, but them's the facts.

For example, someone who's coded solid for 25 years -- say starting in COBOL & RPG, moving to C then C++, then Java -- will have very little trouble picking up something like PERL, Ruby on Rails or Ajax. But a 47 year old applying for a Ajax or ROR "senior developer" job stands almost zero chance regardless of how good they are. That's because the perception is that only 23 year olds can hack ROR.

Luckily, the stronger "real" stacks like C++ or Java (or Cobol) have a very long tail, and at some point demand for those skills actually rises as companies have to maintain legacy systems for decades to come.

Of course the other problem is a perception that a 47 year old who's still coding has done something wrong or is a slacker or misfit. Few can understand why you'd want to do that your whole life. Even though lots of 47 year olds still code, many are officially titled Project Manager, Product Manager, Senior Architect, System Designer, DBA, and so on. There are a few companies that support an all-tech career path, but not many.

239   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 2:42am  

justme,

I can get onboard w/ a lot of what you said. We had a real dufuss (Jeffrey Grayson) here in PDX that had his name put on a building (UofO) even as he was entering into fraud allegations. Fortunately for him his advanced MS spared him from doing any real time and getting much "man love" as surfer x is fond of saying.

But seriously most affluent folks prefer to keep their name out of the limelight lest the be hit up by everybody and their long lost brother.

The one that gets me is "supporting the arts"? How about LIFE support? If you need to have $1,000 a plate fund raisers to keep the smphony "alive" what does that tell you!? Look, I'll always keep classical music near and dear to my heart (on CD) so can we turn this place into a homeless shelter already!? :)

240   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 2:54am  

DinOR Says:

> But seriously most affluent folks prefer to keep their
> name out of the limelight lest the be hit up by everybody
> and their long lost brother.

Just this past month Benefit Magazine had an article about why many prefer to give anonymously.
http://www.benefitmagazinesf.com/

P.S. Has anyone heard from SF Woman (I was just thinking of her since she mentioned she is a Benefit subscriber a while back)…

241   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 2:59am  

SFBubbleBuyer Says:

> Me, I usually give to police/fireman’s widow
> and children’s education funds.

Did you get a license plate frame and drivers license holder with your donation?

http://tinyurl.com/2hs984

242   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 2:59am  

I don't think these benefits are primarily about raising money. It's just a way to let rich people network, socialize, and feel good about themselves. They're the Fendi bag of charities, 95% Fendi, 5% bag.

243   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:01am  

I don't think firemen and policemen need more money from us. Don't they already get great death benefits from their respective fire/police departments? (I guess I'm speaking as a leftist - I can't help but think there are much more worthy and important causes than housing homeless pets and giving comfortably off firemen's widows more money).

244   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:03am  

I'm not at all surprised at the age discrimination problem. The reality is that for the vast majority of people, the ability to quickly memorize large amounts of new information drop off greatly after you're 40. It's made up somewhat by improved experience and (hopefully) work ethics. In addition, you just can't work 40+ year olds as hard, they have families.

245   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 3:05am  

It's not bad enough every stockbroker on both coasts and every looney tune w/ a "revolutionary e-mail search engine" is hitting you up, you need THIS?

I didn't mean to "dis" anyone with a real appreciation for opera etc. it's just that most arts that require THAT much subsidizing become dead arts. With the "b**mer death clock" ticking each passing moment might spell the end for the smphony as well?

When people mention "the classics" I just assume they're talking about Magic Sam at the Ann Arbor Blues Festival?

246   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 3:11am  

astrid,

Agreed on the "networking" thing.

We had a local sheriff (Damon Coates, great guy) break up a family dispute and took a "slug" in the jaw. What's weird, is that he *didn't die! Now he's disabled for life, is not entitled to a full pension and had lots of rehab. just to function in a wheel chair. There are cases where it's needed.

247   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:14am  

DinOR,

My understanding is that fire and police departments also give good disability benefits.

Obviously, if there is a real need for charity, then money should be going in and properly dispersed to people in need. But I see too many people who donate thoughtlessly, and their donations are really feel good self esteem boosters.

248   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 20, 3:20am  

Astrid,

Cops and firemen actually don't have great benefits, usually. Depends on municipality and whatnot. But I like that those foundations give scholarships/etc, to kids who might not have enough to go to college because their parent(s) were hurt /killed in a relatively thankless job that makes us all safer.

And no, I don't have the stickers/license plates. They don't come in motorcycle size. ;)

249   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:27am  

SFBB,

In that case, you might want to look into veterans and veterans' families right now. They would certainly fit your bill.

250   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:29am  

(Though I would argue the safety part...but that's a leadership issue. American soldiers deserve better from this country)

251   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 3:34am  

astrid,

Oh no argument there! Why do you think we have so many Rose City officers on "disability"! Had Damon been a State Trooper or PDX cop he would've been well cared for. He actually just lost an election and his desk job so he was just another county deputy when injured.

252   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 3:46am  

SQT, welcome back. Can you write a thread with a sci-fi twist? :)

253   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:06am  

LILLL,

As far as Patrick.net's experts can figure the average flipper isn't aware of what a computer IS (let alone Zillow) as evidenced by their behavior.

254   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:08am  

There is no way I will give money to the homeless on the street. And I will never donate out of sympathy or compassion.

Charities should be highly focused on a cause. To me, it is all about reason and nothing about emotion.

It is much better to help education and medical research.

255   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:09am  

CB,

Ohhhh! Just like those "I Support Law Enforcement" bumper stickers at fund drives! (I'll take TWO!)

256   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:12am  

"There is no way I will give money to the homeless on the street"

Unless they're honest. I saw a kid in downtown Portland (all 6 blocks of it) with a sign that said:

"I'm ugly, nobody likes me and I need a beer"

A dollar toward your worthy cause Sir!

257   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:13am  

Ohhhh! Just like those “I Support Law Enforcement” bumper stickers at fund drives! (I’ll take TWO!)

Law enforcement is also something I would support. Especially those "keeping teens out of trouble" programs.

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