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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,190 views  444 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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258   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:14am  

“I’m ugly, nobody likes me and I need a beer”

Huh?

If he said "I need a bear" maybe I would change my mind. Teddy bears are so cute.

259   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:14am  

DinOR

11-99 foundation costs like $1800 so I've never seen it on a Jetta, my favorite stickers says "If I say I support law enforcement, will you still give me a ticket".

I thought about marketing a ribbon sticker that says "Support the Chinese ribbon makers" instead of "Support our troops".

260   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:18am  

I thought about marketing a ribbon sticker that says “Support the Chinese ribbon makers” instead of “Support our troops”.

How about a bumper sticker that says "Bumper stickers are for loosers" :)

(I am perfectly fine with bumper stickers and will get some leter.)

261   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:21am  

He even suspected that I had weapon on me.

Washington state allows open carry, right?

262   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:22am  

I guess sometimes I do look intimidating, but probably only to idiots.

I guess sometimes I look like a harmless idiot, so people are quite nice to me.

263   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:25am  

I’ve pretty much given up my dream of becoming a fox/deer hunter.

I may still learn to hunt just for the experience. But my wife will let me hunt only if a can find uses for all the animal parts. That is difficult.

Perhaps I will just play laser-tag with bears.

264   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:26am  

"Bumper stickers are for losers"

One time I was at a stop light and there was this guy with a mid 70's VW Rabbit (spewing noxious diesel exhaust) and he had a bumper sticker for every bleeding heart cause on the planet.

So we're sitting there waiting for the light to change and I said "Hey dude, if you had a job you could afford a car that didn't rely on bumper stickers to hold it together!" (Wife slides further into seat).

265   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:26am  

Nice post SP. Not preachy, not judgemental, not condescending; a window into how another group might think.

266   Phil   2007 Apr 20, 4:27am  

Seems like a lot of money from Real Estate is moving into Stocks. I guess stocks are prepping for a big fall, wish i had money to short some stocks.

267   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:27am  

That was regarding donations, a few posters got in there before I finished.

268   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:27am  

But a 47 year old applying for a Ajax or ROR “senior developer” job stands almost zero chance regardless of how good they are.

Most Forty-something that has senior developer jobs get their jobs through referrals, at least that's the people that I know. I agree with Randy that it would be difficult to just interview and get these jobs, lots of hiring managers favor young single people than those that have families. Funny a lot of younger kids stay late but they also get to work late, and they don't stay late on Fridays.

269   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:29am  

SP,

If the lay-off's at HP's Corvallis plant are any indication I'd have to say no. Another town lousy w/newbie realtors.

270   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:30am  

I believe that is called “sarcasm”, not a chance to get away.

A friend told me that a cop asked his friend, "You were as fast as a plane. Are you a pilot?"

His friend showed him a pilot's license. The cop laughed and let him go.

Otherwise, being honest and respectful gives you the best chance of leaving without a ticket.

271   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:31am  

I got let go because I told the cop I had just come from Krispey Kreame. He thought it was funny. It was actually true.

272   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:32am  

He then told me to keep it under 80 to not draw attention to myself.

273   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:32am  

Gotta love California.

274   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:33am  

I usually drive near or below speed limit.

275   DaBoss   2007 Apr 20, 4:34am  

" I know how to use a TRS80 and took a lot of classes learning how to program in Applesoft Basic, but I don’t include the skills on my resume since I know that they are about as worthless as the ability to use or program Lotus products…"

I would include that somewhere at the begining in your resume ... summary section.

Such as ... "Since my first Apple 2e programming in HS (197x) I have been...."

276   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:35am  

I would have guessed that. You seem like a mellow dude who would rather not spread himself out on the street.

277   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 4:35am  

SP

There are others, and many I'm not sure about or wouldn't know about.

You can find lifer techs in all of the telcos and in many vendors in the telecom universe. There are usually a good number in banking in the big banks' IT centers. A lot of those are in SF, Chicago and NYC. Also in defense and security related companies.

The problem with the tech companies is often they're too dynamic, and end up spinning out old techs, and the workers along with them. Even so, there are a lot of older guys at places like Sun and Oracle, and increasingly Microsoft. But many of these guys grew up with those companies so it's not certain how that will all work out. Same thing in computer games; there are tons of 30 something and early 40 something game programmers, but we'll see how many are left after the next business cycle in games since most of these guys got into it after the last major cycle.

As a digression, a have a theory that India will not fare well when their gargantuan crop of techs ages. Their system will need to go through some traumatic liberalisation to rival the US' dynamic "flexible labor market". I rather think as all those workers age they'll demand enormous support and protections.

278   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 4:36am  

"5. Y!"

So your statement would be true for any company whose name starts with a Y...

279   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:37am  

For those of you who were as clueless as I was about the whole '11-99" thing:

11-99 Foundation License Plate Frame - Culture of Corruption?

280   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:40am  

Or the 'I support law enforcement' decals. That's the trailer park version of that 11-99 thing I guess.

281   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:40am  

A lot of those types of charities are scams BTW.

282   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:41am  

I believe the ticket was voided because I haven’t heard from the court since.

Go clear it up. You do not find out later that you have an outstanding warrant.

283   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:42am  

And welcome back, SQT!

284   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 4:42am  

Another reason I'm against donating to any kind of public servant related charity is the chance for corruption and abuse of power, real or imagined. If we want to compensate these people for their great job, we should do it via good pay and benefits, not through quasi-bribes.

285   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:45am  

Another reason I’m against donating to any kind of public servant related charity is the chance for corruption and abuse of power, real or imagined.

Ideally, one should have his/her own foundation. This is why it is important to make money first. Foundation administration is not cheap and it takes a larger amount for it to be worthwhile.

286   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:51am  

If we want to compensate these people for their great job, we should do it via good pay and benefits, not through quasi-bribes.

Agreed. The idea of paying $1800 to get a 11-99 wallet "badge" and license plate frame basically screams "bribe to avoid tickets for life". If it's really all about the charity, then why all the conveniently conspicuous "road bling" that just happens to be strategically placed right where you, uh.. need it. Wouldn't a "thank you" plaque, subscription to CHP Weekly and donation slip for the IRS do just fine?

287   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 4:52am  

DinOr says:

(Wife slides further into seat).

Gee, that sounds like prelude to oral ........

288   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:52am  

For those of you who were as clueless as I was about the whole ‘11-99″ thing:

I actually wrote an email to the Mercury News, Mr. Roadshow called the 11-99 foundation and they vehemently denied that they let speeders go because of that, it seems simple to me, just don't issue license plate and license holders if that's true.

289   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:53am  

Wouldn't it take a avoiding quite a few tickets to pay for the $1800? It doesn't seem like a very good value proposition it that's the main motive.

290   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:56am  

In my opinion, personal action beats collectivism. If I help Habitat for Humanity, my resources go directly to the person in need, and are not skimmed off by layers of bureacracy. If want to help with “global warming” (pollution and wasting natural resources is a bad idea, global warming hoax aside) I can best do so by driving a fuel efficient car and bicycling or walking when I can. I can help the poor best by being productive and thrifty enough to not be one of them. I can stay in shape to reduce the load on the health care system.

Well said.
FYI: for those interested in seeing how much of a given charity's collected donations goes to bureacracy, fundraising & overhead, you can look them up here: http://www.charitynavigator.org/

291   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:57am  

You have to admit GC, some of those performances are so bad you would write a check to not see them.

292   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:58am  

@Malcolm,

For some people, $1800 represents a month's worth of speeding tickets.

293   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:59am  

Wouldn’t it take a avoiding quite a few tickets to pay for the $1800? It doesn’t seem like a very good value proposition it that’s the main motive.

I don't think money is the motive, the ones that I know have the license plate frames are the uber rich stock option (include the billionaire CEO). It must have something to do with getting their license suspended if they get too many speeding tickets.

294   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 5:00am  

For some people, $1800 represents a month’s worth of speeding tickets.

They should have their licenses revoked.

295   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 5:01am  

Man, those people should not be on the road. I happened to get two in one year and I received a very nicely worded letter from DMV describing some negligent/wreckless operator concept that applies if you get 4 in one year.

296   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 5:01am  

And please don’t forget to rank goods from MSFT among the quality ones.

I am so happy with Word 2007. It even has a real-time word count! That feature alone already worths the upgrade.

297   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 5:03am  

I would rather work the system for a disabled parking permit. I know a girl from Russia who pulled that one off. Interesting lady, her dad was in the KGB so I guess she was used to privilege.

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