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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,313 views  444 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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298   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 5:04am  

Headset,

Pffft. (I wish)

More like when your wife wishes she could be invisible.

299   marko   2007 Apr 20, 5:12am  

The job market is all about diversity in the B.A. Everything from cutting grass all year long, to making gasoline, to making nuclear weapons. Let us not forget about the BA rather large education industry as well, particularly college. That is why the bay area stays alive even after major industry shut downs such as the dot-com tech bubble. There is always a good reason to live in the BA when it comes to jobs and education. Segue -- my job : Network engineer for a Community College District.

300   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 5:21am  

GC, I always prefer Microsoft products. The UIs are just so well-designed.

301   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 5:41am  

"Therefore, every man should go to get his nails done. "

LOL! And while he is at it, have the barber shave his legs.

302   DaBoss   2007 Apr 20, 6:08am  

GC you said...
"The other reason why I prefer to patronize local shops and services (cafes, etc.) as opposed to large chains is that doing so would spread the money among the general population instead of concentrating it in the hands of CEOs and major investors. "

"W2007 alone is worth upgrading."

I guess Bill Gates is worth the extra 300 clams...
I skip MS altogether and get Open Office. Its reads and writes .doc but only cost around $75 with a full blown OS (Linux)... You can get also OO for Mac for free.

303   lunarpark   2007 Apr 20, 6:11am  

On employment - The Mercury News just linked to this report (PDF):

http://bayareanewsgroup.com/multimedia/mn/biz/jobs_report_042007.pdf

304   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 6:20am  

I skip MS altogether and get Open Office. Its reads and writes .doc but only cost around $75 with a full blown OS (Linux)… You can get also OO for Mac for free.

But it does not look like a proper Windows application.

305   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 6:31am  

I like most of MS Office, especially Word and Excel. MS Project kind of sucks. Firefox is still heads and shoulders better than MSIE. My IE gives up and poops at least 3x per week.

Vista 64 (Ultimate) has a ways to go. I had to uninstall it for now. Dual core, 3GHz with 4GB RAM, and dual SLI 7800s -- Vista 64 ran slower than an old 286 running Windows 2.0. Must be all that "virtualization".

306   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 6:39am  

Randy, what did you run on Vista 64?

307   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 20, 6:53am  

GC,

If you go to inquire about the ticket, make sure to have cash on hand to pay the original ticket, probably x2.

One time I forgot a speeding ticket. I honestly don't remember getting the mailing saying when and where to pay it by, I just had the original ticket the cop gave me (who said the info would be in the mail.) I did, however, recieve a notice that a warrant was issued for my arrest when I failed to pay on time.

I immediately got the money and went down to pay the ticket. I went up to the window, explained what happened, showed them the original ticket and the warrant, and the guy said "Just a minute... I need to look something up." He then opens a drawer, putters around in it... walks over and makes a quick call on the phone... walks back to the drawer and putters around some more.... and lo and behold, a cop walks up, asks me my name, and arrests me.

I get tossed in jail for 3 hours before they get me before a judge. I tell him I got the ticket, totally forgot about it and didn't remember getting the info in the mail, but came down as soon as I was informed about the warrant. He asked if I could pay the fine in full right then, I said I could, and he sent me on my way. The only good part of the day was sitting in court for the 3 people who went before me. If you've ever watched Judge Judy or any of those other shows and wondered how those people could be so damn stupid... well... they've got nothing on people in the regular courts.

308   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 6:55am  

GC Says:

> The other reason why I prefer to patronize local shops
> and services (cafes, etc.) as opposed to large chains is
> that doing so would spread the money among the general
> population instead of concentrating it in the hands of CEOs
> and major investors.

It always bothers my liberal friends when I point out that most (and dam near all) small local shops, service providers and cafés skim off cash and don’t pay even close to their fair share in taxes…

309   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 6:59am  

SFBubbleBuyer, you could also have contacted an attorney and have him take care of the situation for you.

310   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:01am  

It always bothers my liberal friends when I point out that most (and dam near all) small local shops, service providers and cafés skim off cash and don’t pay even close to their fair share in taxes…

I prefer national chains. I do not shop at Walmart because I do not like the ambiance. To a customer, a company that undercuts its employee could theoretically offer better pricing in the short run. The goods are identical anyway.

311   Jimbo   2007 Apr 20, 7:08am  

XP is junk, especially Exchange. My laptop at work routinely locks up for up to a minute at a time while trying to talk to an Exchange server. No modern operating system should do this. I am getting a Mac Book, in fact, because I am so tired of my Windows box freezing up on me like this. And no, I don't install junk applications from the Internet on it, but thank you for asking.

Anyone who wants high availability and reliability stays away from Microsoft products. Why do you think the bulk of the Internet is built on Unix?

312   EBGuy   2007 Apr 20, 7:13am  

I imagine this is the case for many Bay Aryans...
"Drive until you qualify" is a phrase that real-estate agents use to
describe a central tenet of the commuting life: you travel away from
the workplace until you reach an exit where you can afford to buy a
house that meets your standards. The size of the wallet determines
that of the mortgage, and therefore the length of the commute.
Although there are other variables (schools, spouse, status, climate,
race, religion, taxes, taste) and occasional exceptions (inner
cities, Princeton), in this equation you're trading time for space,
miles for square feet. Sometimes contentment figures in, and
sometimes it does not.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BATN/message/34668

313   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:14am  

SFBubble, loved the story. Paying fines sucks, but I am a rare one who actually finds court amusing. You see all kinds of stories that an author couldn't fabricate. Sometimes the state finds itself embarrassed having to prosecute some things. My favorite was the guy fined $100 for stepping on a plant in the Borrego State Park. The judge couldn't keep a straight face.

314   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:17am  

XP is junk, especially Exchange.

XP is fine. Perhaps Exchange is different. I use 4 XP machines and they are all running happily.

I am getting a Mac Book, in fact, because I am so tired of my Windows box freezing up on me like this.

But Mac Book is Intel-based right? I thought many applications (e.g. Office) are still on PPC.

I thought of getting a used but mint Powerbook G4. But for $1100 - $1400 I can get two very nice reconditioned Windows laptops.

315   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:18am  

Thanks for the heads up. It’s scary. I’m going to write a letter of inquiry ASAP.

You may be able to do an online warrant check. Talk to the court house that issued the citation.

316   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:20am  

If you said Mac’s interface is more intuitive and accessible to lay people than XP, I’d give you that.

Mac laptops do not even have the pointing stick. I would not be able to use them at all without a mouse.

But XP is pretty robust.

I can attest to that.

317   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 7:22am  

Peter P Says:

> A friend told me that a cop asked his friend,
> “You were as fast as a plane. Are you a pilot?”

I know a guy who has a Tiffany bag and a Tiffany blue box with a CZ ring in it.

He claims that he has got out of multiple tickets with the “I’m on my way to propose to my girlfriend line”…

318   Jimbo   2007 Apr 20, 7:23am  

XP is much, much better than Windows 2000, which was better than Windows 95, but that is like saying that a Saturn is better than a Mercury Marquis. They both suffer in comparison to a Honda Civic.

I have never used Exchange until recently and I am astonished at how much it misbehaves. At my past job I used Windows XP with Thunderbird and never had a problem. I guess I should put the blame on Exchange, but this is a Bill Gates product as well.

I never have problems with Firefox on Windows.

319   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:24am  

He claims that he has got out of multiple tickets with the “I’m on my way to propose to my girlfriend line”…

Wow.

320   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 7:27am  

Lake Tahoe Renter,

Thanks and welcome aboard!

In spite of the fact that there's a pretty clear consensus that real estate from coast to coast is GROSSLY overpriced we here at Patrick.net feel that Lake Tahoe is truly an exception. 400% "appreciation" in a 7 year time frame is quite the norm for an area that is as "special" as Lake Tahoe.

We feel that the prices there are actually undervalued (given the exceptional pay and advancement potential). Sorry if you got the wrong impression.

321   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:28am  

I used to have a NeXTStation. It crashed way more often than my Windows NT box back then.

322   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 7:30am  

GC Says:

> I thought only some Asian shops do that (skim cash).
> But according to you, this tax resistance movement is
> more wide-spread that I thought.

I have never heard of even a single White, Black or Asian small business that has paid all the taxes due.

Many hate Wal Mart and Starbucks, but they withhold taxes for every employee and report and pay tax on all the cash that comes in.

323   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:30am  

I vote Bill Gates as the most important figure in the 20th century.

324   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:31am  

My vote is for Gorbachev.

325   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 7:34am  

"Drive until you qualify"

Uh... care to define "qualify"?

"Affordability" as defined by CA standards involves serial neg. am. re-finances (with cash out of course) set at regular intervals that coincide with the reset of one's loan/s. (Sorry HARM, couldn't resist)

SO... to our realtor friends I humbly offer to: "Drive a freaking stake into your heart until a Filipino witch doctor declares you are quite dead" O.K?!

326   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:35am  

My vote is for Gorbachev.

True. He did tear down the wall. :)

I like Reagan and Thatcher too.

327   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:36am  

That was a very interesting part of contemporary history to live through.

328   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:36am  

I have never heard of even a single White, Black or Asian small business that has paid all the taxes due.

This is why I would fail as a small business owner.

329   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:38am  

Reagan, is my 2nd choice. His library is a very nice place to visit if you are in Simi Valley area.

330   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:39am  

That was a very interesting part of contemporary history to live through.

Yes. Precisely, 1989 was the year of flux.

331   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:41am  

Here's a question to throw out. Why did the bad guys during the Reagan era fear the United States to the point of compliance even though he had a very limited use of the military, yet both Bush's actually used the fullest extent of our conventional arsenal, and it seems like our enemies are only emboldened.

332   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:41am  

should i start looking for a new job?

Don't they need to print a lot of NODs? :)

333   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 7:42am  

"should i start looking for a new job"

Not at all! You have ALL the tools you need right there in front of you!

(You DO have access after hours, DON'T you?)

334   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:42am  

Why did the bad guys during the Reagan era fear the United States to the point of compliance even though he had a very limited use of the military, yet both Bush’s actually used the fullest extent of our conventional arsenal, and it seems like our enemies are only emboldened.

Do you believe in astrology?

335   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 7:44am  

Need Affordable Housing,

Please visit www.mortgageimplode.com and start networking.... ASAP!

336   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:57am  

Peter, I'm agnostic, I don't really believe in much. But on the otherside, I don't automaticaly disbelieve either.

337   PAR   2007 Apr 20, 7:58am  

GC said: At least microsofties are reasonably compensated.

I was at msft when they made the bold decision to start paying essentially industry scale. The brain drain was getting so bad circa 1999 (and the stock had gotten so bloated) that they could no longer pay 30% below the market rate.

That said, it was a pretty good place to work.

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