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Did the tax credit stabilize home prices?


               
2010 Jul 5, 1:21pm   4,629 views  21 comments

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Following a surge driven by the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales fell with the expiration of the deadline for qualified buyers to sign a purchase contract, according to the National Association of Realtors.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said.

Yun noted the tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. “Without the tax credit, there will be more aggressive price negotiations between buyers and sellers. The key test on whether the housing market can stand on its own without stimulus medicine will depend critically on private sector job creation in the second half of the year.

“In most areas of the country, there will be no sharp snap back in home prices in the upcoming years, although some local markets have experienced double-digit gains this year,” Yun said. NAR forecasts the national median home price to rise only 4% cumulatively over the next two years.

Did the first time home buyer tax credit stabilize or increase home prices?

#housing

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15   cevansnh   @   2010 Jul 7, 11:53pm  

The tax credit did stabilize and artificially support house prices... which now must fall more quickly to make up for lost time.

In many cases the $8,000 (for 1st timers) made it so they have no skin in the game.. in any market where starter homes can be had for $150-175K (not CA for the most part).. assuming 2% in closing costs and a 3 1/2% FHA down, there is almost no money from the buyer... so this means a drop in price of 3 1/2% and they are well underwater if they want to sell facing 8% in transaction costs... so Big O has helped us to have a new batch of buy and walk aways.

He does not get it... or, worse, maybe he does and this is his plan... do away with contract law... and that's what dictators do... rule by decree

point is.. it was a bad idea and us taxpayers will get spanked once again.

16   thomas.wong1986   @   2010 Jul 8, 2:14am  

“Did the tax credit stabilize home prices?”

Maybe in some other states, as other non- CA metros have had their correction. CA still has lots of correction to go through.

The NAR certainly needs to be investigated and put under fire for the crap they were and still inflicting on the public. The govt is over focused on persuing Wall Street/Banks and not going after the NAR. Given NAR influence over the govt, its pure corruption, and it needs to be stopped.

17   thomas.wong1986   @   2010 Jul 8, 2:20am  

toothfairy says

I dont think the surge was purely from the tax credit. There was a lot of pent up demand everybody decided at the same time that it’s safe to buy.
so the bounce stronger than usual this spring.

If anything, it pulled demand forward leaving fewer buyers in the future, which will push prices lower.

18   cevansnh   @   2010 Jul 8, 2:50am  

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says


I dont think the surge was purely from the tax credit. There was a lot of pent up demand everybody decided at the same time that it’s safe to buy.
so the bounce stronger than usual this spring.

If anything, it pulled demand forward leaving fewer buyers in the future, which will push prices lower.

TW is correct... this will accelerate price declines... and a federal study showed that just one in 8 purchases were dependent on the tax credit... so, in effect, each creadit was $64,000 in value paid by the taxpayers.

19   gameisrigged   @   2010 Jul 8, 7:21am  

Tenouncetrout says

NOTHING!!
There’s not damn thing Hank, Paul, George, Barack, or Lord Almighty him self could do to stop what intrinsic values of a free market, are valued at. After all the losers bung things up.
Now we’ve pissed BILLIONS and lot of BILLIONS too mind you of MINE and yours tax dollars to clean the books for the Dumbest Bean counters in the History of currency. Yet these houses are being hijacked and sold out the back door to Tony Sapranos crew.(It’s true the FBI are busting City planners and developers bankers and investors left and right, two Broward Commissioner just got indicted this month.)
I can’t think of any sanario where the all Levels of the government from Federal down to the lowly pissant City workers, intervene in any way with the value of Real Estate, where “Handcuffs” aren’t involved.
And the Beauty of it, is in 2012 after the Tea party abolishes the Health Con act of 2010, they will retroactively go after all of these people. There’s a shit load of money and feathers to be made in prosecuting them. Unless they decide to grill bigger fish like Hillary Clinton for treason against the state of Arizona and security of the United States.

You crack me up. You always start out saying something that totally makes sense, then devolve into a nonsensical right-wing rant.

20   Done!   @   2010 Jul 8, 7:34am  

gameisrigged
Don't forget there's only Two parties in this Country and the last two elections I was told that if I didn't chose sides then my Vote either didn't count, or was robbing Senator Kerry of his chance to suck worse than Obama.

My rant is how I see it and what I would like to happen, the closing statement, is a more likely scenario of what we'll get at best. More political two party glad handing and political Gladiator fodder.

I doubt the Democrats or the Republicans are going to do Diddly squat about the theft that has taken place over the last Decade. We pinned the tail on Bernie Madoff, and he will be double ought's Villain after all of this.

Hank Paulson and Ben Bernake could write a tell all book in five years from now, stating an elaborate scheme where they begged for Tax bailouts, and the beneficiaries would cut them a check the next morning. It would make the Opera Book club, more than it would create a rabble.
And Frank Dodd could go on to take Carl Molden's place as the American Express spokes person.

21   toothfairy   @   2010 Jul 8, 11:52am  

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

I dont think the surge was purely from the tax credit. There was a lot of pent up demand everybody decided at the same time that it’s safe to buy.

so the bounce stronger than usual this spring.

If anything, it pulled demand forward leaving fewer buyers in the future, which will push prices lower.

it pulled demand forward but also cleared out supply so it's mostly a wash.

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