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"Real Financial Heroes" needed in CA!


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2007 May 10, 9:30am   25,048 views  246 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Housing woes to continue, expert says
Economist says downturn could weaken state's financial future
Contra Costa Times 05/10/2007

“The malaise in California home building will hound the state for a while longer, a top state government economist told an East Bay gathering Wednesday. Even worse, California is particularly vulnerable to ripple effects because the state depends on housing and home building for a greater share of its economic activity than other regions, said Howard Roth, chief economist with the state’s Department of Finance.”

“‘I see no signs that the housing downturn will abate any time soon,’ he said during an interview after his speech.”

“...Roth warned that the weakness could be even more severe based on the first-quarter home building activity. ‘To keep us out of recession, we need for consumers to continue to spend through the rest of 2007,’ Roth said.”

Have YOU been doing your part for Clownifornia's economy? How many bidding wars have you "won" lately? How many plasmas, boats, RVs or spousal "enhancements" have you bought with the house ATM this year? None?!? Why do you hate Amerika...?

Do we really need to make renting and saving a criminal offense? Enough already --stop your whining and get out and start spending, dammit!!

Uncle HARM

#housing

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190   astrid   2007 May 14, 2:59am  

"She won’t hire anyone into management in their 20s, regardless how often the Financial Times boomer columnists keep insisting that Gen X are a lost generation of managers and our only hope for salving the future is to fast track the boomer’s kids into management."

Yeesh. Maybe I should be glad that I'm a very very late Gen-Xer.

191   astrid   2007 May 14, 3:40am  

Overall, I think the Gen-Xers still have it relatively easy compared to the kids right after them. I doubt I could get into my alma mater today and full tuition&fees+room&board was around $30K/yr (and about half was covered by need based grant in my case) instead of $40K+.

If I was three or four years older, I might have even been able to participate in the real estate run up or play the dot.com lottery.

I graduated college with $10K in loans. Compared to kids in college or high school today, I count myself very lucky.

192   Peter P   2007 May 14, 3:59am  

If I was three or four years older, I might have even been able to participate in the real estate run up or play the dot.com lottery.

I was slightly late to the dot.com game but I *could have* participated in the real estate run up around 2001-2002.

Nevertheless, I blame no one. It is still too early to tell if having bought 5 years ago would have been a better thing for me.

193   Randy H   2007 May 14, 4:07am  

Malcolm

The detail is welcomed. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one "out there". It sounds as if you maximized your MBA experience which is the most important thing. I knew a lot of Columbia MBAs in the NYC EMBA program who were just there to tick the box in the IB career journey. I'm sure that works well for them in the short run, but after they burn out on the Street they'd better hope their rolodex carries them into the corp world because I wouldn't touch one of those guys/gals with a 10 meter pole.

194   HARM   2007 May 14, 4:11am  

Peter, and Harm are software writers? I’ve never really asked what everyone does for a living. Randy, I was reading your posts from awhile ago, you are in consulting?

I would prefer not to publish my complete memoirs to the world, but I've been mostly on the admin side of IT for the last 10 years, despite my liberal arts education. I have never been a "real" coder. What I do now involves some light coding (Vb script, etc.), but mostly MSI building and technical writing.

195   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 14, 4:11am  

Me, I've got a BS in Comp Sci and a Masters in Biophysics, and work as a software engineer, and will hopefully transition into biotech in the next few years. (Early 30's)

196   HARM   2007 May 14, 4:16am  

Of course, once we hit our first product milestone, I’ll probably be trying to convince HARM to bail on Pasadena and migrate north too.

Be careful with the bait you dangle --I might just bite. ;-)

197   HARM   2007 May 14, 4:28am  

I’ve been an entrepreneur for the past 13 years. You’re never really your own boss. You just get to keep most of the money. My bosses have been my clients, my customers and my investors. Not trying to be sanctimonious, but there’s a difference between a lifestyle company, self-employed/sole proprietor and an investment backed entrepreneur. I have a board to answer to.

100% agree. I've never started a business from scratch (though would like to someday, if I can find the right niche). However, I have a good friend from college that went the MBA route and started a coffee chain in, of all places, Poland in the 1990s, mostly with investor capital. The place took off like gangbusters and is basically Poland's "Starbucks" now. Unfortunately, my friend did not legally protect his interests as well as he should have and sold off too much of his ownership stake to keep the enterprise alive during its early, lean years. As a result, he was forced out 2 years ago and is now enbroiled in a bitter legal battle with the current scumbag/backstabbing managers. All Boomers (of course). Funny, how no matter where you go in the world, Boomers all act the same. I do not think his prospects are very good, despite a solid legal basis for his claim, as he is basically a foreigner fighting powerful and corrupt interests in a Polish court.

Starting your own business can be a wonderfully liberating thing, but it generally takes years of very long hours and high stress. It is also as likely to bankrupt you as make you rich. I admire anyone who takes that risk and tries to the best of his ability, regardless of ultimate outcome.

198   skibum   2007 May 14, 4:31am  

RE: my personal bio, I didn't think anyone would care about the details of my training background, as it's not tech, business, or RE related. Went to med school at a small west coast school, went east to Boston to train at a Harvard teaching hospital (7 long, cold years...), stayed on faculty there briefly, came back to aforementioned small west coast school to work.

199   Peter P   2007 May 14, 4:33am  

came back to aforementioned small west coast school to work

Small as a Junior?

200   skibum   2007 May 14, 4:34am  

Small as a Junior?

he he - no comment.

201   Randy H   2007 May 14, 4:50am  

lol

202   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:01am  

Well, I realized early on that I was in good company here. Thanks for rubbing it in Harm, about being long winded LOL.

203   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:06am  

skibum, a medical PHD is nothing to sneeze at.

204   astrid   2007 May 14, 5:07am  

skibum,

Your skills are quite relevant to some of us, Peter P and me in particular. I think we may be in need of your medical expertise quite soon.

205   HARM   2007 May 14, 5:08am  

@Malcolm,

Didn't mean it that way, buddy, just would prefer not to reveal too much to the world. Anybody see the job Nigel Swaby did on Robert Cote? Unreal how vicious and personal some people can get over nonsense.

206   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:08am  

Harm, I do like the description of the boomer managers in the corporate world. They literally take any fun out of it which is why I prefer the smaller lifestyle type companies.

207   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:15am  

I was kidding, but really I've found if I'm respectful to people they tend not to attack me. What is that link to? I didn't get what it is about. Can you sum it up for me?

208   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:30am  

I found in my "corportae job" that the boomers there resented every little bit of progress I made. My boss saw real talent in me but the maxed out boomers just had no interest in any personal advancement. They just operate in a defensive mode day in and day out because they sense any change in a company is a threat to their livelihood. They really do look at a corporation as their replacement parent. There are some who really stayed true to their ideology but most of them IMO have reverted to being children always worrying about what will happen to them. You guys have no idea how refreshing it is to meet people who seem to have made similar observations.

209   skibum   2007 May 14, 5:33am  

Your skills are quite relevant to some of us, Peter P and me in particular. I think we may be in need of your medical expertise quite soon.

Feel free to email off-line if you have any questions - I'd be happy to discuss.

210   HARM   2007 May 14, 5:33am  

@Malcolm,

Odd, so the link doesn't work for you? Here is the URL: http://robertcotesux.blogspot.com/

Basically, a crude personal attack site created by Nigel Swaby, one of Casey Serin's old pals. Apparently, Mr Swaby does not like what Mr. Cote had to say about himself and his better-known partner in crime. Very juvenile to say the least.

211   Peter P   2007 May 14, 5:33am  

However, it isn’t accurate to say they are “known to pay at the low end”.

Especially if food is part of the total compensation package.

212   skibum   2007 May 14, 5:37am  

Didn’t mean it that way, buddy, just would prefer not to reveal too much to the world. Anybody see the job Nigel Swaby did on Robert Cote? Unreal how vicious and personal some people can get over nonsense.

HARM,
Man, all that site shows is how petty and desperate Nigel Swaby is. I got that sense about him back when he used to post here occasionally. Very defensive and obtuse with his arguments. Classic behavior of a RE bull realizing that the party's over (perhaps the ANGER phase of the Kubler-Ross grief cycle). But honestly, bringing in attacks on family is just childish, desperate, and is borderline (if not frank) harrassment.

What a great representative of the REIC Swaby is!

213   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:37am  

The link worked. I wasn't understanding the point of view. I guess the site is about the guy, I thought it was him posting for advice, I'll read it more closely, thanks.

214   Peter P   2007 May 14, 5:42am  

The link worked. I wasn’t understanding the point of view. I guess the site is about the guy, I thought it was him posting for advice, I’ll read it more closely, thanks.

That site is just plain silly.

Actually, my left arm could be seen in one of the pictures.

215   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:44am  

I'm really sorry but I don't know who this guy is so I'm not really seeing the humor, just that evidently people don't seem to think very highly of him.

216   skibum   2007 May 14, 5:46am  

Actually, my left arm could be seen in one of the pictures.

Maybe Swaby will start a blog called "PeterP'sleftarmsux.blogspot.com"

217   skibum   2007 May 14, 5:47am  

I’m really sorry but I don’t know who this guy is so I’m not really seeing the humor, just that evidently people don’t seem to think very highly of him.

Au contraire. I'd say most people who have "blogged" with Cote see him as incredibly intelligent, well-reasoned, but coming from an odd perspective (pro exurban sprawl). Sort of like the Antonin Scalia of housing bubble blogs.

218   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 5:51am  

I see. I don't really hop around. This is the only message board that I read. I used to post on AOL sometimes, but never got much out of it.

219   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:11am  

Well, the business guys have fallacious thinking in recruiting. I've seen guys boast of a 'track record' which everyone eats up but for some reason they can never replicate it. The whole "I helped take a company public." Real translation....I worked at a company that went public.

"My team got the product to market on time."
Translation....I was lucky to have competent engineers.

My favorite from Accredited Home Lenders. "We are pursuing other avenues for holding our own loans in house."
Translation....We are up to our eyeballs in loans being returned to us so we are desperate for cash.

220   Peter P   2007 May 14, 6:12am  

“Tech guys” tend to assess a situation based on verifiable datapoints, so there is a tendency to overweight performance numbers based on historical or statistical data.

I think I am one of the very few "intuitive" tech guys.

221   surfer-x   2007 May 14, 6:16am  

I found in my “corportae job” that the boomers there resented every little bit of progress I made. My boss saw real talent in me but the maxed out boomers just had no interest in any personal advancement. They just operate in a defensive mode day in and day out because they sense any change in a company is a threat to their livelihood. They really do look at a corporation as their replacement parent. There are some who really stayed true to their ideology but most of them IMO have reverted to being children always worrying about what will happen to them. You guys have no idea how refreshing it is to meet people who seem to have made similar observations.

Malcolm, we seem to work for the same company, stop by Bldg 6 and chat

222   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:16am  

SP, with all due respect, (your self correction) that used to drive me nuts with tech guys. Everything has to be precise. We went to Hawaii with a couple (both engineers) and I had gone down to the beach before our friend arrived with his girlfriend. I said, when you walk out the reef is sharp so be careful. The guy says, about how far out? I said, oh 20 feet or so, where you see the waves breaking.
The girl says, I don't think that is exactly 20 feet.....
I'm like, oh boy, this girl isn't going to be very much fun.

223   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:18am  

SP, it isn't related to the straight or gay which I know goes through everyone's head when the term is used.

A lifestyle company is normally a small business that an entrepreneur founds around an interest or hobby or some familiar type of industry to him. Someone might open a hobby store or become a plumber. They are just small self funded businesses that tend to grow organically. (meaning no large outside infusions.)

224   Peter P   2007 May 14, 6:20am  

Well, otoh, the expense of altering all your pants to make them one size larger every year isn’t included in the package.

Speaking of which, I need to shop for some suspenders.

225   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:22am  

LMAO

226   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:22am  

So you pulled out the laser tape measure to prove it.

227   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:23am  

No baby, I meant, from the base of my balls.

228   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:23am  

You gotta count the WHOLE thing.

229   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 6:24am  

OMG that is so funny.

Or like a Patrick.net.

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