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"Real Financial Heroes" needed in CA!


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2007 May 10, 9:30am   25,051 views  246 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Housing woes to continue, expert says
Economist says downturn could weaken state's financial future
Contra Costa Times 05/10/2007

“The malaise in California home building will hound the state for a while longer, a top state government economist told an East Bay gathering Wednesday. Even worse, California is particularly vulnerable to ripple effects because the state depends on housing and home building for a greater share of its economic activity than other regions, said Howard Roth, chief economist with the state’s Department of Finance.”

“‘I see no signs that the housing downturn will abate any time soon,’ he said during an interview after his speech.”

“...Roth warned that the weakness could be even more severe based on the first-quarter home building activity. ‘To keep us out of recession, we need for consumers to continue to spend through the rest of 2007,’ Roth said.”

Have YOU been doing your part for Clownifornia's economy? How many bidding wars have you "won" lately? How many plasmas, boats, RVs or spousal "enhancements" have you bought with the house ATM this year? None?!? Why do you hate Amerika...?

Do we really need to make renting and saving a criminal offense? Enough already --stop your whining and get out and start spending, dammit!!

Uncle HARM

#housing

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150   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 1:21pm  

A Segway scooter isn’t worth much to me, because I think they’re stupid, ugly “Rascals for Boomer”. But some people think they’re worth thousands.

Randy, you have a knack for wonderful orginal imagery of a concept. :)

151   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 1:24pm  

original; fingers a little tired, long drive today.

152   Peter P   2007 May 13, 1:30pm  

Some things are worth more to some people than others.

Yeah. To many, sushi is just severely under-cooked fish.

153   Randy H   2007 May 13, 3:08pm  

Thanks Malcolm. M figners re tred oo.

154   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 3:19pm  

Just saw an interesting Coldwell Banker ad. Lots of open houses great time to buy. What is interesting is how all this advertising is really trying to push differentiation.
May is open house month. They are also trying to brand themselves with an open house on the web concept. I actually liked the marketing.

155   Serpentor   2007 May 13, 3:27pm  

ww: can you explain how he will be spending only 1k a month on a $850k house even with 1k/mo rental income? please include hoa, tax, misc maintenance etc. What kind of mortgage is your son getting?

ps Unless your son already has a friend he would live with, finding a roommate that he can get along with and is reliable with rent is not that easy to find.
Just ask my buddy who's ex-roommie "borrowed" his brand new audi for a little midnight drunken beach cruise.

156   Randy H   2007 May 13, 3:32pm  

The house I've been bitching about for a couple months right near me here in Tam Valley went through its 4th or 5th open house today. This is the beauty that was a pocket listing for months, with all kinds of cloak and dagger shit. I found out they thought they had it sold before listing twice, but both fell through.

The house is still listed at $50K more than the owners paid about 2.5 years ago. It's nice inside. Granite, stainless, German machines, blah blah blah. It is also small, priced over $1m, no yard, on a cliff, no garage, and just plain weird. Really kind of two houses glued together due to some unofficial addition that was put on years ago.

Anyways, my brother is living with us (I may have mentioned) here at the Randy H rented multi-million $ McCrapsion compound. He's a smoker, and thus banished to one of our many balconies, and thus he gets a bird's eye view (literally) of every open house Sunday over there.

Today he said he saw 1 looker, a very old guy with a yellow notepad, and our other neighbors look at the house. The other neighbor went out on their deck and waved. Last week he said the agent was sitting on the deck in the bigger staged patio furniture chair, sleeping for about an hour. Then she woke up, smoked a cigarette, locked up and drove off in her Lexus.

But hey. I hear things are hopping in San Francisco. Better bid high or you'll lose it. (I'm laughing, really).

In case anyone is wondering, the street I'm on Zillow's for an average of about $2.5m per house. There are four genuine mansions here, two with no Zillow entry at all (but keycard gates and long winding driveways disappearing into the trees), and the other two show just under and over $10m. So this is spode a be prime, right?

157   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 3:44pm  

I sympathize with Dreamz. I respect someone who is who he is with that kind of start in life.

158   DaBoss   2007 May 13, 3:58pm  

"How many bidding wars have you “won” lately?"

LOL! the one where your the only bidders and the realtor tells you there are 6 others (fake).?
the one where they dont tell you what the bids are?

159   Peter P   2007 May 13, 3:58pm  

But hey. I hear things are hopping in San Francisco. Better bid high or you’ll lose it. (I’m laughing, really).

We were in SF today (again). My wife kept pointing to construction cranes and asking what they were. Because I have been reading socketsite.com a bit too much, I was able to name the condos being built. (Perhaps I should become an agent. :) )

Anyway, I think SF is just lagging behind SD. Cranes should become the official "bird" of bubble-mania.

Malcolm, how was the drive back?

160   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:05pm  

Jesus Peter, did you go up and down twice this weekend?

I stayed in Woodland Hills yesterday, I thought you were in Pasadena, didn't know you were in SF until you told me yesterday. I had a great drive back. We drove through Topanga Canyon, had a great lunch at the Chart House on the beach, with a nice walk on the beach there. The coast just south of Malibu is one of my favorite areas.

161   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:06pm  

Did you come back down or are you still up in SF? I assume you flew; that is actually a pleasant flight.

162   Peter P   2007 May 13, 4:12pm  

Did you come back down or are you still up in SF? I assume you flew; that is actually a pleasant flight.

I live in Sunnyvale, which is about 50 miles south of SF.

HARM lives in or around Pasadena.

I drove down to SD only once. It was a very long drive.

163   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:15pm  

Oh, I see. Wow I had that really wrong. I could have sworn you were in Pasadena. Now I know if and when I am up there. I've been up there twice.

164   Randy H   2007 May 13, 4:19pm  

I hope Peter P doesn't live in Pasadena. I'm trying to convince him to come work for us in SF. lmao.

165   Randy H   2007 May 13, 4:21pm  

Of course, once we hit our first product milestone, I'll probably be trying to convince HARM to bail on Pasadena and migrate north too.

166   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:24pm  

Peter, and Harm are software writers? I've never really asked what everyone does for a living. Randy, I was reading your posts from awhile ago, you are in consulting?

167   Randy H   2007 May 13, 4:35pm  

I'm complicated. I was a KPMG consultant out of undergrad. After that I started a telecom consulting and software dev business in Chicago. Moved to Silicon Valley in the mid 90s, and started 2 other companies (one in digital media, one in IT services). Then did a dot-com as CTO that went up in a blaze of glory which leaves me with endless stories on sushi/sake nights for the uninitiate. Hint: our CEO was the guy who invented those things wrapped around every paper cup of coffee you buy at $tarbuck$. Then went back to my old telecom biz and took over as CTO, created some products, and sold all that off to SBC. Went back to B-School to figure out why I got screwed on the deal, got into the VC community doing financial and technology due-diligence consulting. Now I'm back in operations running a new startup for a capital group. I still do telecom strategy consulting and occasional tech due diligence projects for hedge funds and buyout funds who seem to always be itching to buy into shit that don't work.

168   Randy H   2007 May 13, 4:38pm  

Your turn :)

169   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:42pm  

Are you kidding me? We had the head of prod dev from WD40 speak to our grad class. He held up the cardboard cup wrap as an example of a ridiculous patent. I knew we had a common point of reference when we were talking about worthless patents. The breaking point for me was seeing a patent number on the little paper ring that holds a knife fork placesetting together with a napkin.

That is a very impressive background. Sounds like you have worn many hats. Tech guys like you with a business understanding are worth your weight in gold. I wish I had some real tech background, my toolbox is light in that area.

170   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:49pm  

My undergrad was operation mgmt, (production and operations), I did a lot of accounting work strong AR going through school. I always found myself in car parts, and running dismantling operations was a fun industry. After my business degree in 1998 my mentor gave me the chance to launch a pest control company. That is still up and running and very successful. I then did some TQM work for about a year at an office furniture manufacturer in the Miramar area. I left that when I moved to N county where for 3 years I worked for a startup in Carlsbad named Metallic Power as their planner/buyer. That company was a startup developing zinc air fuel cells. I left them in 2003 and then decided to get the MBA which I started in 2004, and finished in May 2006. I was also doing the real estate thing on the side from 1995 to 2005 when I sold everything. My last job was a disappointment as Snr Planner for Asymtek (robotic dispensing) in Carlsbad. I only did that for 6 months and left last December. Now I'm rethinking everything.

171   Malcolm   2007 May 13, 4:52pm  

I've got a little solar company that I launched as my MBA project but that is neither here nor there. I haven't managed to make that profitable, but I am still in touch with the program at SDSU so I am looking at new technologies for licensing and commercialization. But I'm a operations guy, not technical. I have no core competency, just an interest in renewable fuels as you've probably figured out.

Good night everyone, it's late.

172   Randy H   2007 May 13, 4:58pm  

Linkin to me if you want. Click my name, find my full name, and do a linkedin search.

Getting an MBA was very smart, IMO. Anderson or somewhere else? I'm biased, but in your case it will serve you very well. You've got a lot of management building years ahead of you yet.

Is your corporate acct. work GAAP or cost? There is a severe shortage of qualified GAAP accountants right now with credible management experience. My wife is an exec at a very large corp. in compliance, and she's importing talent from all over for lack of people.

173   Randy H   2007 May 13, 4:59pm  

In fairness to my old CEO, he didn't have the real-bullshit patent. His was on the thermal glue. lol.

174   Ozman   2007 May 13, 6:25pm  

WealthyWoman said:
A goldilocks economy as many pundits say, where inflation is non-existant, we hum along at 2-3% GDP growth, rates stay low, and the stock market stays steady.

I'm beginning to doubt whether you're genuine.

175   Ozman   2007 May 13, 6:29pm  

Ha Ha said:
Does anybody here appreciates that sustained low interest rate makes united states a country of incompetent people?

It lowers the hurdle rate for everyone, so I guess you may have a point :)

176   Ozman   2007 May 13, 6:31pm  

Ha Ha said:
Does anybody here appreciates that sustained low interest rate makes united states a country of incompetent people?

This low interest rate phenomenon is a global experience. Do you know what the rate is in Japan ?

177   Ozman   2007 May 13, 6:43pm  

Malcolm said:
Peter, and Harm are software writers? I’ve never really asked what everyone does for a living.

Former Geophysicist and Software engineer for a couple of Big oil Companies back in the 90's.
Came to Silicon Valley in the last .com boom to work as software developer.
Started a consulting firm specializing in developing online data mining applications and content security. I'm still here and my clients keep me happy :)

178   e   2007 May 13, 6:47pm  

Peter, and Harm are software writers? I’ve never really asked what everyone does for a living.

I do tech stuff as well.

Unfortunately, I'm not getting paid as well as this dude:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/11/MNGRIPPB2N1.DTL&hw=google&sn=001&sc=1000

James Currier, a former venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur who sold the social networking site Tickle to job site Monster.com, said that a company on whose board he serves recently lost a prospective employee to Google. The worker, whom he described as a genius, turned down an offer of $120,000, plus stock options, in favor of a $375,000 salary from Google.

No wonder I can't afford a house in Fortress Mountain View. I don't even clear close to a HaHa - let alone $375,000.

179   e   2007 May 13, 7:04pm  

I'm in my 20's or 30's. (Vague huh?)

What am I supposed to do in my 40's and 50's. It appears that age discrimination is pretty rampant in the Valley.

Is it move into management or be a greeter at Walmart?

180   astrid   2007 May 13, 11:02pm  

(My current career plan still calls for finding a cult at 42. I hope that'll take me through to retirement.)

181   Randy H   2007 May 14, 12:02am  

Finance Directors with public experience that are decent managers will be able to find work without much trouble for years to come. My wife regularly hires people in their 30s and 40s. Not sure about 50s, I'll ask her. She won't hire anyone into management in their 20s, regardless how often the Financial Times boomer columnists keep insisting that Gen X are a lost generation of managers and our only hope for salving the future is to fast track the boomer's kids into management.

There are *very few* people at Google earning a $375K base. Go search their jobs and interview for one (if if just for the experience of interviewing) if you want to know how much they really pay. They're known to pay at the low end of the market.

182   SP   2007 May 14, 12:18am  

skibum said to 'wealthy woman':
Your screen name is the blog equivalent of desperate bling-wearing: couture clothing with all the labels on the outside

When I was in Hongkong a few months ago, I saw jackets that had at least six designer labels (or lookalikes) printed all over them - all on the same jacket.

To the credit of HK'ers, I never saw anyone actually wearing them, so I assume these were for the tourist crowd.

SP

183   SP   2007 May 14, 12:23am  

Wealthy Woman said:
Would I be as generous if he was a trouble maker in HS, went to a not so good university, and came out making $30-40K/yr at any random job? Most definitely not.

Would you be as generous if he was a realtwhore?

SP

184   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 12:43am  

Eburded, I'll narrow your age to 30s since you are already thinking about 40s. I'm 35, and already accept 40 easier than I accepted 30. I'm enjoying life more and more so it doesn't bother me.

185   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 12:53am  

For operations I have an understanding of cost accounting. MLO. For general accounting work in companies we of course were on accrual basis, for real estate when I was doing the books for my mentor (10 years who just died last April :( he was cash basis. Just to be clear, I'm not a CPA, I just did everything internally for the small businesses I worked in. I am a CPIM through APICS. Invenotry and planning were my professional strengths.

186   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 1:03am  

Amsterdam Says:
May 14th, 2007 at 5:41 am
"I’m a dutch citizen and a student in university. I was wondering how Americans value a bba, mba and msc in finance or business administration? Here in Holland most value is given to msc.
You also wrote about analyst programs for investment bankers. In general what kind of degree do yo need to enter such a program?"

I just had one small input for this question since it is kind of funny. First, IMO and from others a bachelors degree is the new high school diploma. It is no longer the order winner, it is the qualifier just to talk to someone. Engineers at my old job made fun of our HR girl because her degree was a BBA from National University which is a private open business school. At a formal state school you get either a BA or BS denoting arts or science. My MBA is actually an MSBA because I had the BS in business already so it empahsizes greater business focus.

187   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 1:10am  

Randy, I've observed that as well. For boomers to insist that 20 year olds are taking their executive jobs has always made me laugh. People still look at me as being young (though they always admit, ahead of the pack), especially boomers who think an executive title is their birthright for the accomplishment of a long career doing........selling advertising or being a travel or real estate agent. They just can't get a clue that business is always tearing itself apart and reshaping, and that there is no longer (if there ever was) some straight line pay spectrum that is solely related to age. They just don't get it.

188   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 1:40am  

Randy H Says:
May 13th, 2007 at 11:58 pm
"Linkin to me if you want. Click my name, find my full name, and do a linkedin search."

Just looked at it again, not sure why you don't talk about your business degrees more as I think they are impressive. They are common now as others have said but that does not diminish the level of expertise one gets when they earn one or in your case....

"Getting an MBA was very smart, IMO. Anderson or somewhere else? I’m biased, but in your case it will serve you very well. You’ve got a lot of management building years ahead of you yet. "

Most tech guys seem to be very picky about where degrees come from. I'm not really sure why but then again I commoditize everything in my point of view. I am more than satisfied with San Diego State. It consistently ranks top 25 in the country. Our cases were directly from the Harvard archives, and my advisor who runs the program tries to emulate the finer programs. For example, the finer schools have interactions with VCs so he put that all together and even has his classes sit in on VC funding meetings by Domain Associates. They are big time, and have funded many startups most everyone here would know about. The guest speakers were what impressed me the most. The tuition seemed like chump change because I had such a good time.
I got the most I could out of it(remember in my case it was a self improvement goal not just a resume filler) so I volunteered for everything from business plan competitions to luncheons where I sat at business lunches and met interesting people. You can have a lot of fun as I did, one luncheon I actually sat with Steve Francis who ran for mayor in San Diego.

My business plan is used as a case study for the extended campus in Taiwan where I present it and do Q and A with the students over Skype. Skype allowed my advisor (who flew back and forth) to have one of his American students (I was the first one) video conference to their class. It was so successful that he has expanded it and takes his favorite cases and does it each semester. I even attended and spoke at the last Taiwanese class's graduation when they flew over here to receive their degrees.

189   Malcolm   2007 May 14, 1:51am  

Too much about me, geez. I do type quickly so when I get going I lose track of time, and then look up and see that I have literally published my memoir without realizing it. Sorry for the level of detail.

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