patrick.net

So, perhaps the four horsemen of the housing apocalypse have reached Danville by now (wow, I hadn't realized they were so wealthy out there: the median income for a household in the town was $114,064, and the median income for a family was $125,867. ). Not that I doubt they won't reach my hood, but it still seems a bit crazy here. The two houses I have been keeping tabs on via the bike ride home look to be in contract. Also, two single family detached condos have sold, one for over $750k and the other was priced at $800k in a nicer part of town. Maybe we are prime for now. Well, we do have intangibles -- one of the few places besides SF that you can get attacked by marauding bands of bicyclists....

Has anyone been to Sebo or Naked Fish? I am especially intrigued by Sebo, but I guess I would have to get a sitter to go there. It does not sound “kid friendly.”

Sushi restaurants are generally not very kid friendly. Raw food is still a bit risky.

Danville is a nice little town. There is even an automobile museum.

GC,

I've about reached the limits of my patience with this stupid cycle of you trying to bait others by posting bizarre sex or scatological content followed by pointless back-and-forth between you and... just about everyone else on this blog. Either cool it and let the subject drop, or say goodbye.

Last warning.

All these housing talks can become boring very quickly. Please tell me what new insights has someone uttered recently?

IT'S A FUCKING HOUSING BLOG.

@everyone

I apologize for my outburst last night.

Coincidences do happen. You judge for yourself how likely a coincidence someone would choose "GC" as a handle, then indulge repeatedly in veiled pedophilia references -- often so he can put himself in the role of defending such. Remember, "GC" posted for a long time as various handles beginning with G.C. like Gentle Cheetah before shortening his pseudonym, perhaps after he was certain no one here got it.

For reference:

http://www.childlover.org/index.php/Annabelleigh.net

Annabelleigh.net referred to as "Girl Chat" or "GC", founded 6 May 2000, is the longest running known Girl Love board. The way it works is based very much on how "Boy Chat" works

Some pretty frank talk from Heli-Ben in Chicago. In spite of the candor I'm not convinced the Fed can make the claim that they were aware of the implications of the credit/housing bubble all along. Many of his comments seemed to be in response to MSM observations.

Randy H,

There's absolutely nothing wrong with having parental instincts. They're a good thing. Governor Conan or GC or whatever "costume" he's wearing that day suffers from 'John Mark Carr Syndrome'. Just smart enough to realize acting on his fantasies might curtail his freedom so he has satisfy his desires by making shocking and outrageous claims.

NIA

DinOR said:
Governor Conan or GC or whatever “costume” he’s wearing that day suffers from ‘John Mark Carr Syndrome’.

I would say GC and the other trolls are more of a 'Fart In The Elevator' syndrome.

The experience of being here would be much better if said FITE were forcibly removed (and subjected to corrective induement by RandyH :grin: ), but since the time for which we are forced into interaction is somewhat limited, we hold our noses and get by.

SP

%s / induement / inducement

SP

SP,

LOL! O.K.... I can get on board with that. You do have to wonder if that's how some of those clowns (and I do mean clowns) got started. I'd read accounts that John Wayne Gacy started molesting younger boys as early as 10 and had committed his first murder before he was 13. If you have a really strong stomach you can rent "Dahmer" to see first hand how serial killers get their start although I will warn, it's one of those things you can't "un-see".

Person,

That sounds verbatim from The Stagecoach's personal spokestool "The Instant Millionaire!"

Randy, where in God's name do you find this stuff?

At work I just saw a poster promoting homeownership and dispelling some nasty “anti-homeownership myths”.

When something is so actively promoted, that something must have something wrong in it.

Lisa,

Yeah, that article made me want to vomit. Those shills at the Chronicle really turned on the spin machine, didn't they! I wonder how much "pressure" they got from the REIC ad sponsors to write that piece (of $hit). Did you also notice that their explanation for the "sizzling hot" high-end market is the so-called "wealth effect?" Not once did they mention that a HUGE portion of those purchases in the past several years were done on funky mortgage products. IE, the "wealth effect" is in large part the "loose credit" effect. Let's see how this article holds up after a year or two of tightened credit and ARM resets...

From the sfgate article:

"Local home prices are still going through the roof"

Um, according to DQ: San Francisco 591 568 -3.9% $779,000 $790,000 1.4%

1.4%? Yeah, "through the roof"

DinOR,

http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/guest_blogger_pushes_solution_1.html

I seem to recall reading a post here (maybe even two or three ;)) from your good self making the same point about loan suitability tests, and using somewhat more vigorous language.

"if home values rose at the avg. rate they have over the last 30 years"

More REIC cherry picked data. On the surface it sounds generous enough but if it's all the same to you (Mr. Instant Millionaire) can we run the same data from 1966 to 1996? When you take 1996-2006 out of the mix (total abberation) does the hypothetical still look like a no-brainer?

What amazes me is that the "Dummies" book publishers hasn't come out with "Statistics for Realtors" yet.

1. When the sample size is *decreasing* from sample-to-sample, the median or mean values can *increase* even while internal samples are exhibiting a downward trend.

2. That means less homes are selling on the bottom end, and only more expensive homers are selling. And even those homes are coming *down* in price. But compared to the previous month, the average/median price is higher.

3. WTF do Realtors actually get tested on? How to park a Lexus?

4. The media? ugh. Journalism is dead.

@SP,

What does "FITE" stand for?

@ozajh,

Thanks so much for that informative link! Really, think about it. What good would it do to implement some sort of "suitability standard" for mortgage brokers interfacing with the public when there are basically NO barriers to entry? In many cases, zero licensing requirements!

It just goes to show how far lenders have to go to reign in "bad actors" b/c in a lot of cases we don't even know who the actors are? How do you enforce "suitabilty" when we can't even monitor who is allowed to write loans? Man... that IS pathetic. Good observations from their guest blogger though!

"WTF do realtors actually get tested on? How to park a Lexus?" LOL! :)

Freaking hysterical! Evidently it's a higher criteria than becoming a mortgage broker!

At first, I didn't think that SF Chronicle story was so bad by typical "rah-rah" MSM cheerleading standards. It did have this bit:

"The Bay Area numbers come with some caveats, however. The median price is skewed by strong activity at the upper end. Real estate in the region is composed of numerous micro-markets, which vary tremendously. In fact, affluent Bay Area housing markets are getting stronger, while poorer areas are softening.

"The volume (of sales) being low tells you that we've lost the bottom 20 to 30 percent of the market that can't qualify for mortgages," Rosen said. Banks have tightened lending standards in recent months since numerous homeowners started defaulting on subprime loans. Subprimes are higher-cost mortgages sold to people with poor credit."

And then I read this:

"It's safe to say that the more expensive the neighborhood, the more likely it appears to at least temporarily be stabilizing now," LePage said.

"I feel our market is immune to decreases in value," he said. "We might slow down a little and just hover, but then it picks up again."

WTF do Realtors actually get tested on? How to park a Lexus?

Nah. Lexus parks itself nowadays. :)

HARM,
Honestly, for the casual observer, the banner front page headline that reads, "Bay Area's housing prices buck national trend" emblazoned just below the masthead should have been a dead giveaway that this was a spin job.

To GC

I think you are going through hell. You are so bright and yet your energy is being wasted.

I don't pretend to be an expert but this is just my take on how to have a more productive, peaceful life. It is not based on anything scientific except my instincts and working with people as a Nurse Practitioner for the last 30 years.

If you want to win the battle in your mind there are short term and long term solutions.

Short term:
Psych meds
hormonal treatments
sex change operation
counseling

Long term:
meditation and action focusing on positive aspects of life
homeopathy by a super skilled practitioner
Entity removal techniques
The Bible

Just my two cents.

Good luck to you and I wish you well.

meditation and action focusing on positive aspects of life

That is probably the best one.

I would also recommend:

* Traveling to pretty places
* Writing a novel
* Painting

The most important aspect of life is to appreciate.

I thing the only thing that will cure GC is castration. can we ban this asshat already and get back on topic?

I think GC is far more interested in provoking/trolling than in sexual perversions. He may indeed have genuine issues, but I suspect they have little to do with his interest in sex. If he was interested in sex, there would be millions of websites that would offer better picking for sexual perversion.

"our market is immune to decreases in value"

Statements like these make it really difficult to feel any empathy for these people.

1. Thank your lucky stars you aren't a realtor in the other 99% of the country where prices hovered (then crashed) rather than "pick up again".

2. You have absolutely NO investment in your clients beyond the transaction itself. When this thing ultimately blows up in your face (and it will) you can simply walk away with whatever money you've managed to rat hole and not have to live for one minute with totally dissatisfied "clients".

3. The "tricks of the trade" you've learned here will help you in all your future scam-deavors.

LOL. Having seen how they park, I would suspect this isn’t part of the test. I have seen one realtor whose LexUV had knocked over her own open-home sign and trapped it under the rear bumper.

SP,
LOL. I hate to be borderline (if not frankly) racist/sexist, but was this Realtor an Asian female? I've been nearly run off the road numerous times by Asian female drivers on 280, El Camino, etc. who appear to be just chugging along, oblivious to the world around them.

"how will they cope with the loss of their high-maintenance lifestyles?"

Uh, not my problem. That's why I've largely pooh-pooh'd the drama of "how will the economy absorb all these "displaced" REIC employees?"

To say that they are "displaced" tends to imply that they had a "place" (or function) to begin with?

Exactly what sector of the economy has the capacity to absorb these generally unproductive and mostly unskilled workers? And how will they cope with the loss of their high-maintenance lifestyles?

I predict the next area of "growth" for these easy-money nomads will be in the upcoming boom in Boomer-related personal services. The immense wealth of the retiring Boomers will lead to a need for:

1) personal assistants: who will help them keep track of all of their golf tee times, Hummer car wash appointments, botox injection appointments, etc? Who will help procure their dime bags when they need their "medically prescribed" therapeutic Mary Janes?

2) personal financial managers: how are Boomers going to manage their portfolio of multiple investment and vacation properties?

3) health care: there will be a wave of aging, sick Boomers. They will need at-home aides to change bedpans, etc.

4) Bankruptcy counselors: who will be there to help them through the difficult process of bankruptcy when they realize (a) that negative savings rate wasn't a great idea after all, and (b) their retirement "nest egg" aka their McAlbatross can't sell because every other frickin' Boomer has put their exurban McAlbatross on the market in hopes of cashing out and sailing into the sunset?

skibum,

You forgot a few:

5. The repo industry. Lots of HELOC/refinanced Hummers, Lexi, boats & RVs will be "returned to sender" in the coming years, so lots of job opportunities there.

6. Gambling, alcohol/drugs and prostitution. Once FBs hit bottom, they will predictably turn to the traditional age-old crutches/distractions to their financial woes. Boomers also have less self-control and less tolerance for pain than any previous generation, so these will undoubtedly be "boom" industries.

7. Law enforcement and private security. The increase in FB-related petty crimes and domestic violence will be as predictable as #6.

8. Get-rich quick/MLM/Ponzi scaminars. The more desperate and innumerate the FB, the greater their susceptibility to the lure of "sweet deals".

8. Get-rich quick/MLM/Ponzi scaminars. The more desperate and innumerate the FB, the greater their susceptibility to the lure of “sweet deals”.

Perhaps it is time to write a book... :)

Get Rich Quick With Your Own Get Rich Quick Seminars

Peter P,

You may be on to something there.

"help them keep track of all their golf tee times"

As funny as some of these suggestions have been I don't think they're too far from the truth. I ran into a realtor friend a few weeks back and she said biz has never been better and starts telling me about the 8 or 10 pre-foreclosures she's worked in the last year!

If you want to fancy yourself as a savvy RE investor don't let me spoil that for you but the truth is that working short sales etc. has a hell of a lot more to do w/ debt counseling than it does w/ RE. It's almost as ridiculous as a drug counselor saying I'm a real "party animal"!

Golf business idea: buying used ladies' shafts and re-marketing them as "stiff" :)

Huh?