patrick.net

I hate roller coasters. The one in Disneyland is too much for me already.

Well I for one have HAD IT with all the whiners here complaining about whether RE is a good investment right now or not! You just have to "sack up" and get whatever loan they hand you and stop worrying about your entry point and property taxes built on fluff and hot air! In the long term that doesn't matter anyway.

Sure prices will probably be flat/free falling for the next 10 years or so while the well contained subprime meltdown and resultant foreclosure cycle runs it's course but you people want everything handed to you on a silver platter for crissakes! In the long run, they aren't making any more land so you have to decide. Are you a MAN or AREN'T you! WELL....?

No, I didn't make the video. I don't have time to play games anymore these days. But I think it's a great idea. Someone could use one of the other roller coaster sims to really do this right, including flaming crashes to the ground, panicking people and all.

Given the slo-mo train wreck we're witnessing (see PAR's post in astrid's thread), an interesting question is, what will be the next "major" or "significant" development in this tedious process? A dead cat bounce? Alt-A resets? Prices back to their relentless climb upwards (Bay Area only goes up!)? More boring stagnation and or gentle price declines? A "black swan" event?

skibum,

Welcome to the doldrums. It is hard to say, we can be fairly well assured foreclosures will continue to ramp up during the summer months. I don't see any stopping that.

rob-not-in the hood Says:

> I don’t see any dip where I’m looking. I’ve been renting
> for 4 years after selling a house in Oakland for 100%
> profit.

Prices were still going up for two of the past 4 years but not for the last two years. The Chronicle today an article about the huge spike in NODs in the Bay Area (including Alameda County).

> Well it kept going up and still is. I’ve been looking at houses
> in the better parts of Oakland and Berkeley and there is a
> shortage of inventory and prices are still going up. In other
> places there are distinct declines and/or huge inventory.
> Can anyone explain this? And I don’t buy the broad based
> declines, improvement to homes type arguements to explain
> that there really is a decline - I have seen many of the very
> same houses for sale 2 or 3 times each time at a higher price,
> each time sold in weeks.

If you don’t “buy” the fact that buying a home in a “better part” of Oakland or Berkeley and renovating it will increase the value you should do a little reading (and maybe you will also learn how to spell “argument”). How about posting the address of just one of the “many” homes that have sold 2 to 3 times at higher prices…

"we can be fairly well assured foreclosures will continue to ramp up during the summer months. I don’t see any stopping that."

I believe these forclosures will be needed to bring housing back in line. But don't you think that gov will do everything possible to decrease forclosures? Moratoriums, rate cuts, disaster relief, Aid to Famlies with Dependent Bankers, etc.

Notice that in some articles we are seeing where even Realtor types are admitting a housing crunch. But look closer and notice that this admission has the purpose of trying to convince the Fed to lower rates o prevent the looming "crisis."

One of these days we should do a thread on opportunity cost and leverage, to answer RE bulls who trot out their tired argument about how it's okay to sit through a RE slump if you can pay the mortgage.

I don't know who created this, but I'm pretty sure it's a Patrick.net regular (wait for the credits):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc

Excellent job!

Hot off the presses, the latest numbers for the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices. These are the March numbers before the subprime implosion. Brace yourself, though, as there were upticks in the Bay Area (smallest measurable change), Seattle, and even "Stumptown" went up (way to time the market DinOR -- well maybe we should wait for the May numbers :-) )

Robert Shiller continues to spread sunshine:
“The fall of the National Index into negative territory, after more than 15 years of positive annual growth, is a reaffirmation of the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “The National Index was yielding solid returns as
recently as a year ago. Q1 2006 growth rates were up 11.5% vs. Q1 2005, a sharp contrast to the returns we are seeing today.”

It depends which part of the park the roller coaster is in. I see Evergreen inventory shooting over 400. It did not reach there in 2005 and 2006. But I still see Cupertino prices holding very nicely.

Even then, I do no see panic setting in till next year in the fringe areas. That is if things remain similar. Foreclosures are going up very slowly.

Given that job market appears to remain solid, the only thing that will help us bubble-sitters is increased mortgage rates. The 10yr is till below 5.

So in a nutshell, unless interest rates change, very slow change in BA.

Hmmm... just to be clear, that are many "bearish highlights " in the latest S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices. Here are a few:
Miami has posted the highest Index numbers of all the cities that are tracked. The Miami Index finally went negative (quite definitively with a -1.0% month to month loss). They will be interesting to watch.
LA has two months of consecutive -.8% losses. At that rate you could lose a 10% downpayment in one year.
Continued unspeakable carnage in San Diego. Down 1.0% last month and -6% for the year.
Detroit is down over 8% for the year.

Did anyone try out the google street view yet? Pretty amazing. Glad that they are not quite down here in South Bay yet, hope some senior Google people in our neighborhood will stop their engineers from publishing the street data down here. But I am happy to see the street view of all other neighborhoods :-)

@Marty,

Perhaps you missed the "[sic]" right after the intentional mis-spelling "looser", but obviously Randy was self-consciously using Serin-speak here.

Any misspelling hear is intentional. :)

Maybe this was discussed already.

http://www.sanjoseproperty.com/newsletter.html

Now has the April report. Santa Clara Country has sales down not just YOY but also MOM. So April has less sales than March.

I am a sic [sic] looser [sic].

What depresses me the most is that whenever I see a "bad news" article about the Bay Area, it's not about the Penn/South Bay.

Like this one:

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/29/BUGCGQ1S9V1.DTL

I get my hopes up, thinking that it will be about a crash here in Fortress - but instead it's about Vallejo, Antioch, Pittsburgh - all parts of the Bay Area that I've never even been to.

I get my hopes up, thinking that it will be about a crash here in Fortress - but instead it’s about Vallejo, Antioch, Pittsburgh - all parts of the Bay Area that I’ve never even been to.

Are those cities / towns even part of the "Bay Area Proper" ?

No, I am not one of the snobs who look down upon any place that requires paying a toll to come from "there" to the "Bay Area Proper" ;-)

But places around 101 (Only south till San Jose)/280/880 are to me BA. Gilroy / Morgan Hill are not Bay Area to me. If you travel on 680 and go to Pleasanton/Danville etc you are so far away form the bay - there is a clear range of hills separating them from the bay. I like those towns, but they are neither Silicon Valley, nor Bay Area to me.

I might want to buy there for specifically that reason. Not Bay Area :-)

See what the problem is? Please refer to StuckinBA and eburbed's attitude :-)

OK, kidding aside, I myself went to Danville and San Ramon the first time over the weekend, although I have always known people who commute from these places. Not bad at all, particularly Alamo and Danville, since both of them have rain shadow mountains on the west, so the western foothills of these two places are very similar in geographical setting to the western foothills of the Bay Area, although 5-10F hotter. Most of the places I went to are brand spanking new, very nicely landscaped.

I am not encouraging people to spend so much time commuting from there (about 45 miles from the fortress or centers of employment, which may mean 1.5 hours peak hour traffic). But I have to say they are not as dreadful as one would imagine. I myself like Alamo, it actually reminds me of a hotter version of Woodside and Portola Valley. The problem is, it is quite pricey as well, you are still looking at $1M+, but with far more reasonable choices compared to 1000 sf shack on 6000sft lot. I am sure San Ramon, Danville or Alamo will crash much sooner and harder than the fortress, just judging from the # of listings alone (e.g. Alamo with a pop of 12,800 has more listings than Cupertino that has 5 more times pop). For those who can tele-commute, I'd say these towns just behind the mountain range are very decent choices.

One thing, though, worries me about the San Ramon area. It seems that the employment center is centered around Pleasanton. We drove around Pleasanton just to get a feel for the place, there were soooo much office space for rent, more than those you'd see in Santa Clara and Milpitas from 237, however not as much as those in Evergreen. I think I described my drive in Evergreen a few months ago, the vacant office space in Evergreen alone seemed abundant enough to hold the entire BA population!

I don't see much office space in Danville or San Ramon, so I presume most people living there commute to Pleasanton for work, or they will really have to spend 2 hours a day to East Bay, 3 hours to the West side. That sucks.

I don't think there is a hard definition of BA, it depends on how much time you are willing to spend on the road in exchange for a piece of heaven when you hit home. If you don't have to commute during peak hours or can tele-commute, then Morgan Hill or Danville can be a part of BA (technically MH belongs to another valley, so the cut-off point should be Almaden/Santa Teresa).

Google street view- I live in Mountain View and was able to view my landlord's house, complete with my car in the driveway. Very cool.

Nice timing on this thread. Just yesterday I rode the Giant Dipper in Santa Cruz with my wife and was thinking about the video as we rose above the boardwalk.

Ah, beautiful suburban Danville:

http://www.exuberance.com/photos/Sprawl-EastBay-2003/2875.html

Though to be fair, that is probably San Ramon, not Daville.

Ah here we go, this one I really like:

http://www.exuberance.com/photos/panos/Sprawl-SanRamon-2006.html

The houses look like a glacier. Danville is very mysterious.

I'm going to pretend that Jimbo's second link is a picture of the Mountains of the Moon.

I took the turn in the roller coaster to symbolize the, well, "turning point".

The accelerations and velocities are, of course, wrong if you assume the length of the track is proportional to time. However, it's not that tough to imagine the distance traveled to be proportional to percentage change in price instead of time, therefore the speeds would change dramatically. (But still they are in the wrong direction; should be fast up hills and slow down hills because of stickiness, but now we're ruining an otherwise cool little video with economics).

I get my hopes up, thinking that it will be about a crash here in Fortress - but instead it’s about Vallejo, Antioch, Pittsburgh - all parts of the Bay Area that I’ve never even been to.

Well, the Craigslist Bay Area ReduceOMeter hit 204 listings for May25&26, a new record, mostly on the strength of "places you've never been". Patience grasshopper, reductions are coming to a neighborhood near you. Buried in the listings was a 10,000 sq. foot Mill Valley lot, "reduced" to around a million and change. Only a bit over $ 5 million an acre -- I bet Randy is ready to scoop that up and build his custom dream home.

Actually the landscaped roads hide the sprawl really well in San Ramon. We drove along the main roads on the east (Crown Canyon, Tassajara), both sides have planted trees and stone-faced fence blocking your view of the valley sprawl. Only when you drove to a high point and looked back did you realize how many new houses were still being built.

The sprawl in Dublin is completely disgusting, because most of the new houses are being erected on bald hills with the east-bay-signature annual grass, which is all dead by now. No trees, absolutely none. Dublin looks like a whole town built on dirt. Parts of Dublin looked like east Redwood City, or east San Jose, if you still don't get the picture.

Danville and Alamo are the only two towns in that neck of woods with plenty of grown trees. Pleasanton is quite shaded too, but I didn't see too many residential houses there.

OO

Danville and Alamo are lovely places to live. Another area around here that I like is Bridges - it is a recent development in San Ramon with homes that look Mediterranean with plenty of growing trees.
Many of them have more interesting architecture than the usual McMansion box.
When I walk into one of them, I can sense my mood get better. School system is very good, also.

This is what I think is nice:

There is a MUNI metro station about 300 yards from that fountain. The homes are not cheap, but probably not much more than in Danville. They tend to be a bit smaller and on smaller lots, but I prefer the walkable neighborhoods.

West Portal is about half a mile away, with restaurants, bookstores and a little one screen movie theatre.

I don't think I will ever be able to talk my wife into buying there though, even if we could afford it. Too foggy for her.

@EBGuy,

Hey thanks! Seriously though, the timing issue was hardly one of my choosing. Given the dollar amounts involved I'm aware that a lot of posters here wonder why I even bother tracking the bubble?

Which brings us to our next "point of the matter". Because there are (I'm told) several other "full price offers" on the table they are sweatin' me big time!

"Got that appraisal done yet?" "If you need help financing I've got a really great gal that.....". I get a call from the seller's (nominal) realtor every 3rd business day "just checking in" or "wanting to see if things are still on track". Sheesh, I mean after all, it HAS been all of 2 weeks! My wife and I sat down last night and agreed if they don't cool out and I mean fast we may STILL walk! We're very unhappy with this urgency but even more unhappy w/ the fact that we're "competing" totally with local realtors. Still flush w/ bubble bucks and probably looking for that golden parachute of a completely paid off place from their "great run".

The unit below us was sold.... to a realtor, that is selling her McEstate post haste and downsizing "for spousal health reasons". Now I DO happen to know the poor guy is sick, (but he's been sick for a LONG time!). Again, why the sudden urgency!? With all that's going on in our lives (and being self-employed) this may be a big priority for them (they seem obsessed with having the other offers walk) but it's hardly a priority for US! I just can't seem to get that across?

Only a bit over $ 5 million an acre — I bet Randy is ready to scoop that up and build his custom dream home

In the past week I walked through three, yes 3, +1 acre properties with decent (one quite nice) homes on them in Mill Valley & surrounds. The most pricey was $1.8mm.

These jokers trying to sell 1 acre for $1mm on virgin lots located in a municipality are dreaming. There's one lot in Corte Madera adjacent to county preserve land which has been for sale for years. The problem isn't the lot; it's the fact the price doesn't reflect the risk or cost to develop it, given the years you'll have to spend fighting the city and NIMBY activists.

They tend to be a bit smaller and on smaller lots, but I prefer the walkable neighborhoods.

Walkabout neighborhoods are EXACTLY what the terrorists would want us to do. They hate the freedom that we get from cars.

I like walkable neighborhoods too. But view is the number one priority. If a house is uninspiring, it is useless to be "close to transit" or "close to employment."

Ha Ha, by the time your business faces serious competition, you better just close down and pioneer something else. I guess large public companies cannot do that.

I am not afraid of competitions, just anti-competitive.

"Walkabout neighborhoods are EXACTLY what the terrorists would want us to do. They hate the freedom we get from our cars."

Are you suggesting we make our neighborhoods more camel friendly? :)

I used to live right next to CA-85. At night, the freeway sounded like waves.

You can paint something like beach/ocean scenery on the freeway wall and pretend that you are in Hawaii.

Why is Danville so expensive, compared to say Dublin/Pleasanton ? Or they are all similar in terms of cost of housing ?

You can paint something like beach/ocean scenery on the freeway wall and pretend that you are in Hawaii.

I do not like Hawaii. Too hot and humid.

The funny thing is these people RAVE about the "convenience"! There is something to be said for that but you'll notice most people will choose peace and quiet over convenience in the long run. Yeah, inspiring would be great but.... don't these people have homes to go to!