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Real Estate Roller Coaster


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2007 May 29, 4:23am   20,309 views  88 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Roller Coaster

"It never goes down", "it's always a good time to buy", "you're just paying someone else's mortgage", "rich dad poor dad", "renters are loosers [sic]", "San Francisco median is up another 6%"...

This link is for you, the mentally challenged who cannot comprehend that the price of a house goes up, goes down, goes up, goes down. Since even the most slobbering imbecile has likely ridden a roller coaster at some point in his or her life, here:

Pretend you're riding this roller coaster, and the hills are the actual historical prices to-date. You tell me, what do you think is coming next?

---Randy H

#housing

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76   DinOR   2007 May 31, 4:07am  

SFBB,

Just the thought of budgeting 300-350k for a remodel scares the hell out of me. At what point does it become a "tear down"? I'm not saying it's a bad idea but I thought we looked at a few basket cases in Redwood City and came to the conclusion it just wasn't economically feasible?

77   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 31, 4:23am  

Well, it's in Mountain View with a huge lot... and it's one of those things where you could go either way... tear down or full on restore. And it's really more of a restoration than a remodel. And the house has interesting character.

It's a combination of the fact that it is

In a town I would like living in.
Not in the crappy section of that town.
Has a big lot (It's a double size corner lot compared to everyone else)
Schools aren't total crap, but the school fetishists aren't there ruining the fun for the kids.
Probate on a home that's owned, so it's not a 'wait for foreclosure' place.
We'd try to come in under budget... worst case would be 350, but I'd prefer 200k.
Foundation looks pretty dang good.
Has a basement already, although not a big one.
It's a funky cool house with potiential.

The idea of that big of a refurbishment is pretty scary to me as well. Building a new place there would probably run 450- 500k. The 450K offer is pretty much a 'lot price' offer.

It really would be a stripping it down to the studs (SOOO much plaster and lathe) and going from there.

78   HARM   2007 May 31, 4:23am  

I know it's a bit soon for a new thread, but given this morning's bombshell, I just couldn't resist:

Haterzâ„¢ win - Snowflake throws in the murse

79   skibum   2007 May 31, 5:18am  

sfbb,
My advice re: a major rehab are:
-make sure the neighborhood is a good one (done, it seems)
-good foundation and basic support structures (sounds done)
-for converting back to a SFH, I'd look into what kind of permitting/zoning issues need to happen to get the ball rolling

80   astrid   2007 May 31, 5:33am  

It might help to wait a little bit before undertaking renovation. Once the housing market stops, building materials and labor costs will go down.

81   astrid   2007 May 31, 5:35am  

Once the housing market is at a standstill, houses like the one SFBB is bidding on will be ideal. Similar to buying from long time owners with high equity, with the added advantage that the heirs would like to get cash NOW.

82   astrid   2007 May 31, 6:16am  

SP,

But missing-pirate induced global warming could destroy BA's cool nights.

After all, have you seen a pirate lately? Outside of SF's gay pride parades?

83   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 31, 6:28am  

Well, I think we're going to submit the lowball. The worst that happens is we don't get the house and piss off an heir/etc we'll never meet.

84   Peter P   2007 May 31, 7:01am  

With Bay Area’s climate, a properly designed house will NOT have inside temperature above 75 degrees at 10pm.

When outside temperature is 82 degrees, it is difficult to keep cool inside. I would say that A/C is necessary anywhere in the world. I remember once being thankful for having A/C in an Oslo hotel room.

85   Peter P   2007 May 31, 7:04am  

After all, have you seen a pirate lately? Outside of SF’s gay pride parades?

I saw many pirates in Mountain View. But that was inside a movie theater.

86   DennisN   2007 May 31, 10:11am  

My builder here in Boise, Syringa Homes, is an Energy Star Certified builder (for whatever that's worth). My house is engineered for conservation up the yin-yang. During August, when it generally gets into the 90's and even a few days in the low 100's, my electric bill stays around $50 a month. I use the same method I did in San Jose (except I didn't have A/C there). I close up the house when I get up in the morning, and it passively stays cool until around 4PM when I turn on the A/C. Then around 9PM, when it's cooled off outside, I turn off the A/C and open the windows again. Having ceiling fans helps.

Winter is a little more extreme in Boise. January this year had typical highs from 10-20 deg. F. - that's cold. Natural gas bills got as high as $200 a month for January, but nowhere near that high in other months.

My house here in Boise has 1,980 square feet.

87   DennisN   2007 May 31, 10:52am  

My San Jose house, built in 1959, was a bare cage of 2 x 4's nailed up with chicken wire and hey-presto a half-inch layer of stucco sprayed thereon. No wall insulation, and only about R19 in the attic added by a previous buyer.

My Boise house, built in 2005, has a cage of 2 x 4's but more often 2 x 6's, 2 x 8's, or better. A layer of 9/16 CDX is nailed up over the cage, a layer of Tyvek is applied, and then the final siding is added. The final siding is 3/8 manufactured siding, which is made up of wood fiber, glue, concrete, and who knows what. R19 insulation is added to all walls and the floor (I'm on a conventional foundation) with R38 in the ceiling. The garage is less-well insulated but the two roll-up garage doors (3 car garage) and man door are all insulated and weatherstripped. Bleed heat from the insulated water heater and furnace keep the garage above freezing all winter long.

The weatherstripping of the house is something to see. All wires and pipes have that spray-can expanding foam applied at all holes. All electrical outlets have the foam gaskets applied. When the double-pained windows are fit, the openings are multiple wrapped with Tyvek, foamed up, and then fitted a second time once the windows are nailed in.

88   Malcolm   2007 Jun 3, 7:30am  

Testing, posts not showing up on this thread for some reason.

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