patrick.net

I'm betting it's the latter, bubbly.

The OFHEO released its House Price Index(HPI) for Q1 2007 this morning.
Here are some Bay Area lowlights for those of you who don't want to sift through the report.
Quarterly appreciation for Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions:
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA (MSAD) 0.35
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA -0.77
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA (MSAD) -1.08

And some other lowlights:
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA -1.99
Modesto, CA -3.37
Merced, CA -2.91
Stockton, CA -2.62
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA -0.88
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA -1.12

15. How does the HPI differ from the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price indexes?
Although both indexes employ the same fundamental repeat-valuations approach, there are a number of data and methodology differences. Among the dissimilarities:
a. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes only use purchase prices in index calibration, while the all-transactions HPI also includes refinance appraisals. OFHEO’s purchaseonly series is restricted to purchase prices, as are the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes.
b. OFHEO’s valuation data are derived from conforming, conventional mortgages provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac My comment: conforming loans limited to $417,000. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes use information obtained from county assessor and recorder offices.
c. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes are value-weighted, meaning that price trends for more expensive homes have greater influence on estimated price changes than other homes. OFHEO’s index weights price trends equally for all properties.
d. The geographic coverage of the indexes differs. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, for example, does not have valuation data from 13 states. OFHEO’s U.S. Index is calculated using data from all states.

For a moment there, I thought Casey was handling fire arms.

Good riddance. If he took the "haterz" advice and quite in the first few weeks of the blog, he could have saved his reputation, probably go into bankruptcy and emerge with a relatively clean slate.

Nigel Swaby just posted about IAFF's shutdown at his DHC site. Claims Casey sent him an email explaining it was due to him violating the "contract" with wifey:

http://donthatecasey.blogspot.com/

"(kind of like the local furniture store that's perpetually 'going out of business')" LOL!

That pretty much sums up the whole downside of the bubble to date!

That's it! The FINAL Weekend of D.R Horton's 100K Off Promotion!

(Yeah, until next weekend!)

Right along with "calling bottoms" in consecutive months, quarters .... I remember the other @ssclowns but who was the "cupcake lady"?

Yeah and the Woodhulls. They're a couple of horses asses too aren't they? 9 re-fi's in 9 years. Not a record, but very respectable.

So they bought their place in DC for $254,000 in 1998 (but they think it's worth SIX TIMES that now?) Rally? So over 1.5 mil. If they owe 1/2 that I guess they're feeling pretty smug. They were able to deplete over $500,000 in tax free money to buy even MORE investment properties! Now they owe THREE times what they originally paid not to mention the other properties they're racking up bills on! Nothing like being your own GF now is there?

Summary: Just a 24-old dude who wanted all the privileges of adulthood with none of the responsibilities. Extending to stuff like honor, duty and honesty.

So he's a boomer?

passthebubbly,

Hey man! How are you doin'? I left a couple of messages for Frankie but haven't heard back in awhile. He's probably at some "sober retreat" or something like that. Anyway, good to hear from you!

That Nigel Swaby site is just weird.

Correct, except remove "site" from your sentence...

@passthebubbly,

Well you certainly are welcome here! Skibum and I came to the same conclusion at just about the same time. It just seemed like too many people were trying to "out bear" one another. I still love reading Ben's post it's just the comments that get depressing. Dow @ 4,000, buy gold etc. etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

TJRome,

Peter P gave you the "real" Wikipedia link. Now here's the equally informative, yet even more entertaining, "Caseypedia" link: http://www.caseypedia.com/wiki/Main_Page

A house came up 4 blocks from my workplace, and it was a nice old house turned into 3 shitty rentals. The wife and I are thinking about buying it and converting it back into a real house. [snip] They’re asking 860k.

I can't seem to find anything matching that description on MLS...

Surfer-X also wants to targetzTM boomers like me who cashed out in the BA and retired in style elsewhere where it's cheap to live.

Neener neener neener! :)

TOS :

Sorry, I didn't miss you. I was also away from the blog.

Do you think that cheap borrowed money has found a new "home", pun intended. Meaning, it s not going any longer to fund RE mortgages, but to the stock market. The 10yr yield is slowly rising as well.

Eburbed :

http://tinyurl.com/26r56k

Robert,

Is this the "Greg Swann" to whom you're referring?

Go ahead, take a walk around the neighborhood:
http://tinyurl.com/35lqcv

I have. I work a few blocks from there. I love that google feature, though. CRAZY!

Ooh Latham!

Maybe you should paint it blue to fit in!

http://www.burbed.com/2007/05/29/mountain-view-surenos-gang-uses-blue/

Hey that doesn't look so bad from the outside...

I have a friend who grew up in MV who walked over to the property and knows the schools, and that part of Latham is out of the gang areas, so I'm okay with it.

eburbed,

There's a reason there are no interior shots. Of the 3 'rental' areas, only one has an actual kitchen. The others are kitchenettes at best. Bring a hot plate. The bathrooms haven't been redone since 1940-50. Same with the one functional kitchen.

segfault,

Yeah, the "Woodheads". Sheesh. She calls a family meeting to announce there'll be no more impulse buying or frivolous shopping trips!

Oh, right. They're going to have to watch their pennies. This from a woman that has burned through half a million dollars and 9 re-fi's in as many years! Lady, your oldest kid probably doesn't even drive yet? To be fair hubby looks "intoxicated" too.

Given they're likely upside down on their "investment" properties and owe 3/4 of a mil. on their primary residence with an overall negative net worth I wouldn't exactly be breaking out the bubbly? Aw... WTF? Let's tie one last good one on for old times sake!

There's something wrong in a universe where a family of eight surviving on one "alternative" radio related salary has four houses including a beach house.

Of course, no sane parent would have bought in Capitol Hill in 1998. Gang violence + DC public schools. I guess that's the sort of parent who would call a family meeting to stop making impulse buys.

I have a friend who grew up in MV who walked over to the property and knows the schools, and that part of Latham is out of the gang areas, so I’m okay with it.

That makes sense. I think it's the part of Latham towards Rengstorff that's not so swell.

So you're really going to offer 50%?

Yep. I'm sure they'll turn me down and get a better offer, but that's what I think it's worth. If somebody else wants to overpay, more power to them. If not, I might get a house at a slightly realistic value.

SFBB,

actually the location of that house is good, on the border of Los Altos. Why is it so cheap? (I am sorry, I generally consider anything under 1M to be cheap at this point, not that I intend to spend 1M on anyone of them).

The lot size is very good for the "fortress", location is good, and judging from the photo, the craftsman can be quite nicely restored. What's the catch?

I am not familiar with MV, but I have been to that part of the neighborhood, and it looks ok with me. As long as it is close to Los Altos border, even if it is not completely gentrified today, give it a bit of time, it will get better.

My wife grew up in the part of Los Altos that borders MV. She commented that MV schools used to be very mediocre when she was going to school, however, they definitely improved a lot and even did better than her alma mater Los Altos High recently.

I honestly don't think MV as the center of the fortress will ever have a 50% fire sale, at least in nominal value. 65-70% nominal value for the bottom is more of a realistic target.

OO :

It's going to cost 300K+ to 'restore' it. Or you have to tear down and start again. The picture they give of it doesn't tell you the whole story. To really do it, it needs to be fully gutted.

Work required :
Kitchen (1), plus 2 kitchenettes have to be removed and turned into something useful.
Bathrooms (3)
Roof
Subfloors (whole building) and there's enough buckling there may need to be some releveling.
Walls (knocking holes through plaster and lathe = new drywall for pretty much everything.)
Exterior - You can't see from the picture, but areas of the outside are rotted and need replacing, all of the shingling needs reworking, and the back of the house is a mess.
Porches - every wood porch is ready to die, and there are many.
Sheds : pulled off the building and replaced after repair of exterior.
Pond : It's a mosquitoe breeding ground and needs to be removed or fitted with actual pumps and filtration.
Pests : It needs a tenting for sure.
Mold removal : No ventilation in the bathrooms for 40+ years.

It'd be an awesome house afterwards, but the sheer amount of work required is boggling. :)

And the price I'm offering them is what I can afford to pay. You've got to factor in having to have cash for the restoration, and paying rent + mortgage for 6 mo. to a year while restoring the building.

I don't think Casey lost the whole 2.2 million. I would be interested to see the final tally, after the procedures of the foreclsures are all applied against the original loans.

Whatever it is, it will be a whole lot of coin.

My guess is, to write a Hollywood script, you need closure. It had to end sooner or later, otherwise, how could Ben Affleck ever play the part this summer? He was all booked up later in the year....

SFBB,

just some data points for the value of land (which is what I am primarily interested in).

1997-1998: a typical lot in the western foothill (rolling, not completely flat, electricity and gas on site, some may require well or septic ) in the school district of Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Los Altos, was going for around $550K-750K per lot. The reason why I am using per lot for measurement because all of these lots while varying in size could NOT be subdivided, regardless of the size you can only build ONE home atop. I have seen lots ranging from .66-2.x acres. Roughly $500K per acre. I will call these sub-city lots because they are a bit on the fringe and may need extra site work.

2000: Lots of similar parameters went for about 50% higher.

2005: Essentially 2-4x of 2000 price. I saw some reasonable markups from 2000, there are lots on which the seller will just break even because he put in time and effort to do the site work and pull the permit. There are also greedy sellers who are asking for 4x of what they paid for.

Your lot should be 1/4 acre, but it is a city lot, so I would give it almost 100% premium. If I take the 97/98 price, that will be something like $300K per 1/4 acre. Adding another 50% on top, that will give you 2000 price of $450K (which I am ok with).

Your pricing intuition is quite good :-)

SFBB,

I wish you luck but I'm guessing that you won't get it. That lot is probably a prime teardown target and someone will build a 5,000 sq ft monster on it.

astrid,

I doubt that area will allow 5000sft mansion but I am not familiar with MV codes.

If someone is doing a tear-down, they are most definitely budgeting at least $1M for rebuild @ $300+ per sft construction cost. A $2.xM house in that neighborhood is grossly overbuilding your neighbor. With that kind of budget, you'd be much better off buying straight into Los Altos Hills, or Portola Valley.

Most likely the new buyer will just fix it up.

SFBB,
Nice house - it's really hard to find old houses with character like that in the South Bay.

Sorry to be nitpicky, but technically that house is not a Craftsman home. The particular features of Craftsmen (overhanging eave over a large front porch, low-slung roof lines, square columns in the front, etc. aren't present in your example). It seems to be more like sort-of a California bungalow, with a unique 2nd floor layout.

Good luck on the offer! Keep us updated. I'm also interested in hearing how the probate sale process turns out...

I also hate to be nitpicky skibum but technically if the design did not appear in Gustav Stickley's "Craftsman" magazine then it is not a craftsman. He introduced a very large number of home designs on the pages of that magazine with tremendous variations in architectural influence and style. As a result, to say the house is not a Craftsman with any certainty you'd have to either know who designed it, or go through all of the Craftsman magazines(they were published monthly from 1901 to 1916) and make sure it doesn't appear in them. Craftsman or not it looks like it is in the arts and crafts style and thats good enough for most fans of the genra. The features you described above are very often found on Craftsman homes but are not requirements. I was surprised when I learned this myself. It turns out the Arts and Crafts period and the Craftsman itself encompass a far more varied family of designs than many people realise.

TOS

**Kisses**

$2.4mm's getting dropped to $1.79mm here in primer-than-Marina, Marin. I still like you though. You're my favorite troll.

Perhaps we should have a favorite troll thread. Trolls deserve TLC too. :)

Craftsman or not it looks like it is in the arts and crafts style and thats good enough for most fans of the genra.

David J,

Thanks for the clarification. That is news to me. The homes I associate with the Arts and Crafts movement are not only specific with regards to the architectural style, but also materials. To my layman's eyes, the home in question appears to use materials I wouldn't associate with "Craftsman" homes.

However, I found this site through a cursory search on the web which seems reasonably accurate and seems to agree with what you say:

http://www.ragtime.org/arch/rs/RS_Homes.html

BTW, based on your spelling usage, I wonder, are you an Arts and Crafts fan from the British perspective?