patrick.net

tatupu70 says

Why don’t you show us those graphs and numbers that show it’s a no-brainer?
You sound like Chicken Little to me…

Here's one for you. The sky will fall and smack you right in the face soon. I'm sure you thought the economy was booming once again and bought a big nice home you couldn't afford in 2006 and hoping for a housing recovery back to 2006 levels and beyond lol. keep dreaming.
http://housingstory.net/2010/06/24/the-scariest-financial-chart-of-the-united-states-bar-none/?source=patrick.net

tatupu70 says

Oh, and anyone who is 110% sure is an idiot.

We'll just wait and see what the economy looks like in a year or so. Being confident in your opinion is better than living in fantasy land.

Why wait and see? Show us the numbers and charts now. Put a time frame on it, and what will happen. What is defined as big. This way you can gloat later. Also this way when we can question your 110% advice later.

I don't think there are many people saying V shaped recovery here. Everyone here who has posted numbers, and put together thoughtful messages have said a slow recovery but nothing major happening. Nothing major being defined as no major drops or gains of +- 10% for the next several years.

There are no absolutes in economics. I agree that the Bush tax cuts will not cause the depression that is coming, but it is a part of the perfect storm that will cause the depression. I believe that the Bush Tax cuts being allowed to expire will only make economic matters worse. To say that tax increases do not matter is not accurate.

I still think that there are too many factors that aren't behaving as they once did to be able to predict where our economy is going with great certainty. I do see indicators that we're headed for more pain. But are we headed for a depression? I'm not sure the data supports that. Currently our GDP is growing at a very anemic pace. So long as it's growing a little bit, we're not even officially in a recession.

My sense is that we are most likely into a time where we have stagnant growth. We aren't going to see any big improvements and I don't think the data supports a rapid decline in our economy either. I believe that we're in for a decade of stagnant markets and slight deflation over the decade. This can be positive for the long term. It's about survival of the fittest and any business that will survive this will be in a stronger position to grow once this stagnant economy improves. IMHO, of course.

pkennedy says

Why wait and see? Show us the numbers and charts now. Put a time frame on it, and what will happen. What is defined as big. This way you can gloat later. Also this way when we can question your 110% advice later.
I don’t think there are many people saying V shaped recovery here. Everyone here who has posted numbers, and put together thoughtful messages have said a slow recovery but nothing major happening. Nothing major being defined as no major drops or gains of +- 10% for the next several years.

here you go...
By the end of 2010
Dow = 8,500
Home prices = Down 5-10% from today
Unemployment = 10.5%

Year 2011
Dow = 5,500
Home prices = Down 15-20% from today
Unemployment = 12.5%

Year 2012
Dow = 7,500
Home prices = Down 30% from today
Unemployment = 15.5%

RobertShiller says

here you go…
By the end of 2010
Dow = 8,500
Home prices = Down 5-10% from today
Unemployment = 10.5%
Year 2011
Dow = 5,500
Home prices = Down 15-20% from today
Unemployment = 12.5%
Year 2012
Dow = 7,500
Home prices = Down 30% from today
Unemployment = 15.5%

What data did you use to make these predictions? Can you show us data that supports these predictions and the work you did to arrive at these predictions?

Honestly, I'm very curious.

simchaland says

RobertShiller says

here you go…

By the end of 2010

Dow = 8,500

Home prices = Down 5-10% from today

Unemployment = 10.5%

Year 2011

Dow = 5,500

Home prices = Down 15-20% from today

Unemployment = 12.5%

Year 2012

Dow = 7,500

Home prices = Down 30% from today

Unemployment = 15.5%

What data did you use to make these predictions? Can you show us data that supports these predictions and the work you did to arrive at these predictions?
Honestly, I’m very curious.

Not really. I do tons of research from various sites and give my best guesstimate.

RobertShiller says

simchaland says

RobertShiller says

here you go…
By the end of 2010
Dow = 8,500
Home prices = Down 5-10% from today
Unemployment = 10.5%
Year 2011
Dow = 5,500
Home prices = Down 15-20% from today
Unemployment = 12.5%
Year 2012
Dow = 7,500
Home prices = Down 30% from today
Unemployment = 15.5%

What data did you use to make these predictions? Can you show us data that supports these predictions and the work you did to arrive at these predictions?
Honestly, I’m very curious.

Not really. I do tons of research from various sites and give my best guesstimate.

Well, then forgive me for being skeptical about your predictions. I like to see the work and thinking that went into these predictions before I consider them to be valid. Honestly, I'm asking because I am curious to see how you arrived at these predictions.

simchaland says

RobertShiller says

simchaland says

RobertShiller says

here you go…

By the end of 2010

Dow = 8,500

Home prices = Down 5-10% from today

Unemployment = 10.5%

Year 2011

Dow = 5,500

Home prices = Down 15-20% from today

Unemployment = 12.5%

Year 2012

Dow = 7,500

Home prices = Down 30% from today

Unemployment = 15.5%

What data did you use to make these predictions? Can you show us data that supports these predictions and the work you did to arrive at these predictions?

Honestly, I’m very curious.

Not really. I do tons of research from various sites and give my best guesstimate.

Well, then forgive me for being skeptical about your predictions. I like to see the work and thinking that went into these predictions before I consider them to be valid. Honestly, I’m asking because I am curious to see how you arrived at these predictions.

Let me see what I can gather so I can send them over to you. Give me some time.

Sure, no problem. you can just post them here. I'm sure others are interested too.

simchaland says

Sure, no problem. you can just post them here. I’m sure others are interested too.

OK. Just for starters, these are the people I usually follow. Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki, Gerald Celente, VisionVictory (youtube), Karl Denninger, oh and myself (Robert Shiller)

RobertShiller says

simchaland says

Sure, no problem. you can just post them here. I’m sure others are interested too.

OK. Just for starters, these are the people I usually follow. Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki, Gerald Celente, VisionVictory (youtube), Karl Denninger, oh and myself (Robert Shiller)

OK, Mr. Shiller, but that's not data. That's not showing your work. And reputation really doesn't matter around here when it comes to we skeptics. I like to see the data and the work that went into those predictions. I and many people on this board are intelligent enough to understand the data you could conceivably present and the work you did to arrive at your conclusions. Anyone can make predictions. Not everyone can back those predictions up with sound data and analysis.

That is how I generate my predictions is by listening to the so called experts. Is anything wrong with that? I never claimed that I formulated my own predictions through my own numbers.

RobertShiller says

That is how I generate my predictions is by listening to the so called experts. Is anything wrong with that? I never claimed that I formulated my own predictions through my own numbers.

So basically, you parrot the predictions of others who have done the work of gathering and analyzing data. Is that what you're saying?

simchaland says

RobertShiller says

That is how I generate my predictions is by listening to the so called experts. Is anything wrong with that? I never claimed that I formulated my own predictions through my own numbers.

So basically, you parrot the predictions of others who have done the work of gathering and analyzing data. Is that what you’re saying?

In some ways yes. I listen to a group of different people and come to my own conclusion on what makes sense to me. Is anything wrong with that?

RobertShiller says

simchaland says

RobertShiller says

That is how I generate my predictions is by listening to the so called experts. Is anything wrong with that? I never claimed that I formulated my own predictions through my own numbers.

So basically, you parrot the predictions of others who have done the work of gathering and analyzing data. Is that what you’re saying?

In some ways yes. I listen to a group of different people and come to my own conclusion on what makes sense to me. Is anything wrong with that?

No, there's nothing wrong with that if you're a regular Joe Schmo.

But you're claiming to be THE Robert Shiller, an economist, academic, and best-selling author. If you can't do your own work, why should I spend any money to buy your books or see you lecture?

lol. If you really believe I'm Robert Shiller then you need help. Are you a grizzly bear? If I change my name to Dick Cheney, would you think it was really him?

Dow is easy to verify. As we've stated with jobs, they are likely to remain stagnant, and there won't be a huge shift either way, creating or destroying jobs takes long periods of time so unlikely a 2010 prediction will say much. What site/data are you using to come up with today's unemployment numbers? I would like to see how much you think it will go up or down from this quarter. Your 2011-2012 predictions are obviously easier to verify since it's a huge variation from todays data. Home prices are based on what data source, and from when to when? Data is best in quarters or years for housing numbers due to seasonality.

It's easy to have the end of 2010 roll around then start pointing to random news sources to justify your numbers, so it would be nice to see what sources you're using today so we can use them later.

By the end of 2010
Dow = 8,500
Home prices = Down 5-10% from today
Unemployment = 10.5%

I never claimed that I did my own work anyways. I am just trying to give people my point of view on the upcoming economic collapse. If you don't believe it or don't care what I have to say then no biggie. Just move on.

"If there is any one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person's point of view and see things from that person's angle as well as from your own."

Henry Ford

goatkick says

“If there is any one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person’s point of view and see things from that person’s angle as well as from your own.”
Henry Ford

Wow, thanks. Never heard this quote before.

DickCheney says

lol. If you really believe I’m Robert Shiller then you need help.

Thanks for confirming my suspicions. I'll file your predictions where I file my rotten table scraps.

DickCheney says

Are you a grizzly bear?

Well you tell me. I live in the mountains of Alaska and I'm hungry for salmon all day.

DickCheney says

If I change my name to Dick Cheney, would you think it was really him?

I'd believe you if you could tell me the secret to the Dark Side of The Force so I can master immortality like you have, Mr. Cheney.

Sadly, those numbers are fair. If not for the zero interest rate, printing press, and unemployment payout (which has become welfare) the Dow would be at 6,000 or less.

"Nothing is easier than self deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true."
Demosthenes

If you can be cognizant of the above, you can be more objective, even if we don't like what we see. Reacting to an unpleasant truth is always better than relying on hope alone.

simchaland says
Well you tell me. I live in the mountains of Alaska and I’m hungry for salmon all day.

lol. I rather not know then.

@Richmond

You're correct. And we'll keep doing things to prevent a massive economic collapse from happening. It's going to be painful for some people who aren't benefiting from all the printing presses, it'll be great for those who need help to prevent the economy from collapsing.

Because the government will keep getting involved, we won't collapse. They can easily keep this going for 10 years or more. So MAYBE in 10 years, you'll be right, but not for the next 10.

Richmond says

If not for the zero interest rate, printing press, and unemployment payout (which has become welfare) the Dow would be at 6,000 or less.

Exactly my point. This phony economy is only being propped up by the printing press. The end result won't be pleasant.

Troll.

pkennedy says

Because the government will keep getting involved, we won’t collapse. They can easily keep this going for 10 years or more. So MAYBE in 10 years, you’ll be right, but not for the next 10.

I say two years max but that's just my opinion. No way we will last 10 years.

Here is Gerald Celente's most recent interview. He's predicting the economy to collapse before the end of this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0Fq81j4fSA

@pkennedy

That's what scares people. Sure, the economy needs nursing, but at what point do we pull back with the supports (not all at once, of course) and take some pain, not that people aren't feeling pain already, and see just how stable the economy is? When people are uncertain, they hesitate or freeze completely. That goes for pretty much everything...love, money...a physical confrontation. Some people are beginning to free up on spending while others are getting more nervous at the thought of a prolonged recession. It's kind of a see saw. I'm afraid that if we have another bout of heavy losses, the two groups will coincide and bolt their wallets shut. At that point, I don't think the government can help at all. There's a lack of confidence, yes, but confidence will come from a sound footing that is no where in sight at this time. People seem to have no trust in governmental or financial institutions. I've seen some unstable socio-economic situations in my day, but nothing like this. It's horrible, but it's like a train wreck you just gotta' watch. We all like to be right, but I hope I'm dead wrong.

We need a free market. The Federal Reserve creates these bubbles with their artificially low interest rates. We would be in much better shape if they do not interfere with the market.

outlaw usery completely. no more intrest at all. Just a plain 'ol fee for use in the form of a simple flat amount. usery sucks.

DickCheney says

We need a free market. The Federal Reserve creates these bubbles with their artificially low interest rates. We would be in much better shape if they do not interfere with the market.

But that's kinda funny when Dick Cheney said so. LOL.

DickCheney says

This phony economy is only being propped up by the printing press.

borrowing from rich people is not "the printing press".

The printing press was done run 2002-2007 already when household and corporate debt doubled. THAT was the start of the phony economy.

To fix the phony economy we will need to convert this borrowing into outright taxation of the wealthy. Problem is there is a Mexican Standoff going on here I think; wealth is content with low interest rates as they'd prefer a nominal +3% on their 10-year money than the -100% of outright taxation.

The Bush crew done f---ed up the economy but good. Clinton handed him a situation that was primed to blow (rising trade imbalances with China, nothing meaningful done wrt dependence on oil imports, housing bubbles in some areas) but the Bush team took these problem areas and instead of mitigating them, let them really rip in a virtuous cycle of debt explosion.

Either you understand this chart, or you don't -- if it needs explanation, no explanation will reach you.

seaside says

DickCheney says

We need a free market. The Federal Reserve creates these bubbles with their artificially low interest rates. We would be in much better shape if they do not interfere with the market.

But that’s kinda funny when Dick Cheney said so. LOL.

Don't make me change my username again! =)

@ Troy,

Yea,.........we're jacked.

@ BAP,

I know a loan shark that flat rates..............by the hour. :)

I think there will be another stock market crash to the Dow 7500 level in Fall 2010. I think that will present itself with a great buying opportunity. Lower housing prices and lower interest rates.

cdw7503 says

A Big contributor to the coming big downturn in housing prices will be a broad based tax increase with the Bush tax cuts expiring in 2011.

The tax cuts did nothing to spur the economy. That was the housing bubble and trillions of dollars in equity creation. The expiration of the tax cuts will have no meaningful impact.

What DOES have impact is that the tax credit for first time buyers has ended. People are going to be stunned when they see the numbers that reflect the rest of the summer. Couple that with a flood of inventory and foreclosures, and prices will tank.

Hey Dick, that was a great interview on Fox business this morning.