patrick.net

Yahoo Finance Poll:

What will deliver the greatest returns in the next 12 months?

U.S. Stocks 31%
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Cash 8%
Bonds 6%
Real estate 7%

989 Votes to date

It is nothing personal, I wish him and all the other locals well who try to plant their own roots in their home state.

But it can also be a contrarian indicator, capitulation to the bubble that's been blown up mainly by non-Californians bringing their capital and gold rush mentality here from other places.

Been there myself when we also capitulated in the last bubble, had to grind our way through it one day at a time.

Congrats eburbed.

Boston Transplant.

I concur with you that zillow is quite accurate in reflecting the general pricing direction. when it comes down to individual property, it may be quite a bit off, but if you look at a few houses in the neighborhood, you can get a fairly updated picture (3 months lag) of what is happening in the market.

I went to a few open houses this past Sunday, in Saratoga and Monta Vista school district, and things still seemed to be sizzling. The open houses were quite packed at about 2-3pm in the afternoon, and some looked rather eager to make an offer. I don't know about Palo Alto, but I assume that the situation would be the same.

I've got a friend from Singapore coming in town this week to take a look of Palo Alto houses because he wants to send his kid to Gunn. His rationale of buying rather than renting is, paying rent is dumb (and of course 1.xmm is quite within his affordability). I sent him a bunch of materials from patrick.net hoping to dissuade him from joining the herd.

At least for now, anything below $1.5mm in the fortress (Gunn High, Monta Vista High and Saratoga High area) seems to be doing quite well. Stuff outside the fortress school districts seem to be faltering.

I don't know how long this will last, it's like watching the paint dry.

OO,

It sounds like your friend may have other reasons for buying (forex hedging, real diversification). It might even be a good play if he expects the USD to bounce back in the next few years.

Surfer-X,
As a fellow Santa Barbara housing watcher, I would love to get the full story on the why and how of this. Any chance of that?

Hey Surfer X -

congratulations, we all want to buy someday, I'm sure. As long as there are no other debts, and you didn't pay top dollar, that's fine. Money left for margaritas, mmm, that's gravy.

TO Lurker -

still here, busy at my website now and then, and on some courses, work life etc. My site is up there linked to my nickname - feel free to check it out. Anyway, I do know some people who bought recently in Vancouver - my sister paid over $500,000 for a 1 bedroom house in East Vancouver. Nice, but 1 bedroom!

And the madness apparently continues, because when she sold her townhouse, it went $60,000 over list.

Stop the madness in Western Canada.

Aside to Surfer X - I am actually waiting to buy myself - just want to see prices in Victoria reverse.

So every interest rate increase makes me a hopeful guy.

Peace.

If you ground them 30% from the 2005 price, all I can say is sweet!